Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is experiencing a contraction trend due to ongoing safety inspections and negative feedback from coal prices, which may stabilize coal prices [11][12] - The demand side shows an increase in daily coal consumption in both inland and coastal provinces, indicating potential for demand release as the peak season approaches [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 611 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 66.8 USD/ton, down 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 95%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33,000 tons/day (+11.76%) week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7000 tons/day (+0.41%) [49] - The utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.65%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [48] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 640,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 498,000 tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 2.90 days week-on-week, indicating tighter supply [49] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]

- The report primarily focuses on the weekly performance of the equity market, highlighting the resilience of the A-share market amidst global trade policy fluctuations and the rising prominence of technology and new consumption sectors [13][14][18] - It mentions the issuance of multiple quantitative products, including A500 Index Enhanced and Sci-Tech Composite Index Enhanced funds, which aim to enrich the market's product offerings [13][72][73] - The report tracks the weekly net inflow and outflow of funds across various ETF categories, showing significant movements in wide-base indices, industry-specific ETFs, and thematic ETFs [42][43][46] - Quantitative models such as the "Cinda Financial Engineering Industry Rotation Strategy" are referenced, which monitor marginal changes in holdings by high-performing funds to identify over-allocated and under-allocated sectors [37][38][41] - The report provides detailed fund flow data, including top-performing sectors like electronics, communication, and non-bank finance, as well as sectors with significant outflows such as automobiles, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [60][65][67]

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil processing industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - Oil prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $66.47 and $64.58 per barrel respectively as of June 6, 2025, influenced by supply pressures and geopolitical factors [7][25] - The report highlights a significant increase in U.S. crude oil processing volume, which reached 16.99 million barrels per day, up by 670,000 barrels per day from the previous week [60] - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 442 rigs, down by 19 from the previous week [49] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up by $3.69 (5.88%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $64.58 per barrel, an increase of $3.79 (6.23%) [25] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms decreased to 380, down by 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms totaled 137, down by 1 [31] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.408 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week [49] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased to 16.998 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.40%, up by 3.2 percentage points from the previous week [60] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 838 million barrels, a decrease of 3.795 million barrels (-0.45%) from the previous week [69] U.S. Product Oil Inventory - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 5.219 million barrels (2.34%), while diesel and jet fuel inventories also saw increases of 423,000 barrels (4.09%) and 93,800 barrels (2.20%) respectively [60] Related Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]

央行新增信息披露态度呵护 隔夜利率逼近 1.4% —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250608 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 6717 亿，周五买断式逆回购招标 10000 亿。 尽管本周初企业所得税汇算清缴走款带来了一定扰动，逆回购整体维持净回 笼，但资金面整体仍维持宽松，周五买断式逆回购落地，DR007 降至 1.53%。 ➢ 质押式回购成交量在周四升至 7.86 万亿的年内新高后小幅回落，全周日均 成交上升 1.0 万亿至 7.50 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样在周四创下 1 月 以来的新高后回落，但仍明显高于上周。各类银行净融出上半周均有所抬升， 下半周股份行与城商行净融出回落，大行净融出升破 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 1.53%, while other electronic sectors have experienced mixed performance [2] - Broadcom's Q2 revenue reached a record high of $15 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, driven by strong performance in AI semiconductor business and VMware [2][3] - AI business revenue for Broadcom grew by 46% year-over-year, contributing $4.4 billion in Q2 [2] - The company expects the growth trend in AI revenue to continue into FY26, with Q3 revenue guidance of $15.8 billion, representing a 21% year-over-year increase [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The performance of the semiconductor sector has been positive with a 3.25% increase this week, while other electronic sectors have shown varied results [2][8] - Notable stock performances include Apple (+1.53%), Tesla (-14.81%), and Micron Technology (+14.93%) [2][11] Financial Highlights - Broadcom's Q2 GAAP net profit was $4.965 billion, a 134% increase year-over-year [2] - The semiconductor division's revenue was $8.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with AI business revenue reaching $4.4 billion [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 68%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-over-year [2] Future Outlook - Broadcom has released the Tomahawk 6 switch chip, which has a single-chip switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, double the current Ethernet switch bandwidth [2] - The company anticipates Q3 semiconductor revenue to be $9.1 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, with AI business revenue projected to reach $5.1 billion [2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include companies in the computing chain such as Industrial Fulian, Shenzhen South Circuit, and others in the domestic computing and semiconductor sectors [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the electric power equipment and new energy sectors are expected to see improved profitability, particularly in the electric vehicle battery segment, as lithium battery supply issues are anticipated to reach a turning point. The decline in lithium carbonate prices is expected to lower battery costs and stimulate downstream demand [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the electric power equipment sector, predicting a significant investment year for the grid, driven by increased electricity demand from emerging industries like AI and the rapid development of renewable energy, which is creating pressure on the grid [2][3] - In the energy storage sector, the report forecasts sustained high growth in 2025, with opportunities arising from the development of large-scale storage, commercial storage, and household storage [3][4] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from high demand in Europe and a robust domestic market, with new technologies like TOPCON and HJT accelerating the market's growth [3][4] - The report also discusses the industrial control and humanoid robot sectors, noting the establishment of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance, which is expected to facilitate the industrialization of humanoid robots [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates that in April 2025, new energy vehicle sales reached 1.226 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, while the installed capacity of power batteries was 54.1 GWh, up 54.6% year-on-year [11][12] Electric Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The report suggests that 2025 will be a significant year for grid investment, with a focus on companies like Suyuan Electric, Haixing Power, and Jindan Technology [2][3] - In energy storage, the report highlights investment opportunities in large-scale storage, commercial storage, and household storage, recommending companies such as Nanfang Technology and Sungrow Power [3][4] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the photovoltaic sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly in Europe, and highlights the potential of new technologies to drive growth [3][4] Industrial Control and Humanoid Robots - The establishment of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance is expected to enhance collaboration among robot companies and accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots [5][6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic indicators such as the 10-year US Treasury yield, domestic M2 growth, and the M1-M2 scissors difference to predict the relative excess return of the CSI Dividend Index compared to the Wind All A Index[8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates three key indicators: 1. **Global Liquidity**: 10-year US Treasury yield 2. **Internal Liquidity**: Domestic M2 year-on-year growth 3. **Domestic Economic Expectations**: Domestic M1-M2 year-on-year scissors difference - Historical data from 2010 onward is used to calculate the annualized excess return of the timing strategy, which is 8.14%[8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong predictive power for excess returns, but its performance in 2025 YTD shows a negative excess return of -5.36%, indicating potential short-term challenges[8] 2. Model Name: Regression-Based Valuation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the CSI Dividend Index's absolute and relative PETTM valuation levels to predict future absolute and excess returns[19][21] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Absolute Valuation**: - The absolute PETTM valuation of the CSI Dividend Index is calculated using a weighted factor adjustment to align with its dividend yield characteristics - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -29.66% between the absolute PETTM percentile and future absolute returns, with a regression T-statistic of -15.61[19] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.281x + 0.2635 $ - $y$: Future absolute return - $x$: Absolute PETTM percentile[23] - **Relative Valuation**: - The relative PETTM is calculated as the ratio of the CSI Dividend Index's PETTM to the Wind All A Index's PETTM - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -34.10% between the relative PETTM percentile and future excess returns, with a regression T-statistic of -18.23[21] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.1233x + 0.0984 $ - $y$: Future excess return - $x$: Relative PETTM percentile[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies valuation extremes, with higher PETTM levels indicating greater downside risk. However, the current valuation levels suggest limited upside potential[19][22] 3. Model Name: Price-Volume Regression Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses price and volume metrics, such as the weight of stocks above the 120-day moving average and trading volume percentiles, to predict future returns[25][31] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Price Dimension**: - The weight of CSI Dividend Index constituents above the 120-day moving average is calculated - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -43.92% between this weight and future absolute returns, with a regression T-statistic of -20.70[25] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.2344x + 0.2115 $ - $y$: Future absolute return - $x$: Weight above the 120-day moving average[27] - **Volume Dimension**: - Absolute trading volume percentiles are calculated for the CSI Dividend Index - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -39.91% between trading volume percentiles and future absolute returns, with a regression T-statistic of -21.87[31] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.3821x + 0.3434 $ - $y$: Future absolute return - $x$: Trading volume percentile[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the importance of price and volume extremes in predicting returns. Current metrics suggest moderate upside potential[25][31] 4. Model Name: Dividend 50 Optimized Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This portfolio combines high dividend yield stocks with a linear multi-factor model to enhance capital gains while maintaining a stable dividend style exposure[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - High dividend yield stocks are selected as the base - A linear multi-factor model is applied to optimize capital gains - Barra style factor constraints are used to ensure consistent dividend style exposure - Timing adjustments are made based on the three-dimensional dividend timing model to further enhance returns[45] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio demonstrates strong performance, with significant excess returns over the CSI Dividend Index[45] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Dividend Timing Model - Annualized excess return since 2010: 8.14%[8] - 2025 YTD excess return: -5.36%[8] 2. Regression-Based Valuation Model - **Absolute Valuation**: - Current absolute PETTM: 9.35x - 3-year percentile: 98.53% - Predicted future absolute return: -1.34%[19][22] - **Relative Valuation**: - Current relative PETTM: 0.49x - 3-year percentile: 72.36% - Predicted future excess return: 0.92%[22][30] 3. Price-Volume Regression Model - **Price Dimension**: - Weight above 120-day moving average: 57.03% - Predicted future absolute return: 7.78%[25][27] - **Volume Dimension**: - Absolute trading volume percentile: 47.40% - Predicted future absolute return: 16.23%[31] - Relative trading volume percentile: 7.21% - Predicted future excess return: 0.81%[32] 4. Dividend 50 Optimized Portfolio - **Performance Metrics**: - 1-year absolute return: 9.53% - 1-year excess return: 6.20% - 3-month absolute return: 6.04% - 3-month excess return: 2.91%[46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of the green electricity direct connection policy, which supports the collaboration between waste incineration power generation and data centers (IDC) [2][11] - The environmental sector has shown a slight increase of 0.46% as of June 6, 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market, with specific segments like water treatment and environmental equipment showing positive trends [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the green electricity direct connection policy in optimizing grid allocation and enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy consumption [15][16] Market Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the environmental sector index increased by 0.46%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.13% [4] - The water treatment sector increased by 1.38%, while the waste incineration sector saw a slight decline of 0.31% [6] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin," indicating continuous improvement in air quality and water quality across key river basins [18] - A joint announcement from several ministries outlined plans for a unified ecological compensation mechanism for major rivers by 2027, aiming for comprehensive coverage by 2035 [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with a focus on quality operational assets benefiting from market reforms [25] - Key recommendations include companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention on Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd. [25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of the green electricity direct connection policy, which supports the collaboration between waste incineration power generation and data centers (IDC) [2][11] - The environmental sector has shown a slight increase of 0.46% as of June 6, 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market, with specific segments like water treatment and environmental equipment showing positive trends [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the green electricity direct connection policy in optimizing grid allocation and enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy consumption, particularly benefiting waste incineration power generation [15][16] Market Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the environmental sector index increased by 0.46%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.13% [4] - The water treatment sector saw a rise of 1.38%, while the waste incineration sector experienced a decline of 0.31% [6] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin," indicating continuous improvement in air quality and water quality across key river basins [18] - A joint announcement from several government departments outlined plans for a unified ecological compensation mechanism for major rivers by 2027, aiming for comprehensive coverage by 2035 [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with a focus on resource recycling [25] - Key recommendations include companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention on Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd. [25][26]