流动性日报 | 2025-12-24 市场流动性概况 2025-12-23，股指板块成交5074.60亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.48%；持仓金额13152.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.74%；成交持仓比为38.60%。 国债板块成交4488.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.46%；持仓金额8094.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.35%；成交 持仓比为56.34%。 基本金属板块成交6099.80亿元，较上一交易日变动-22.04%；持仓金额7177.67亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.03%；成 交持仓比为93.99%。 黑色建材板块成交2080.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.30%；持仓金额3177.18亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.48%；成 交持仓比为59.15%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 贵金属板块成交9672.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.39%；持仓金额5691.61亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.79%；成 交持仓比为237.33%。 能源化工板块成交5029.42亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.10%；持仓金额4458.15亿元， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of the first batch of L3-level highway autonomous driving vehicle special license plates in Beijing marks that China's autonomous vehicles have progressed from testing and demonstration to formal mass production, leading the way into the L3-level autonomous driving era, which is a milestone event in the automotive intelligentization process [1]. - The central government emphasizes the role of central enterprises in infrastructure construction, supply - chain autonomy, and technological self - reliance [1]. - The state has issued a notice to improve the kindergarten fee policy, including standardizing fee items and clarifying the principles for setting fee standards [2]. 3. Summary by Industry Directory Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline [3]. - Chemical: The prices of PTA and urea have rebounded recently, while the price of polyethylene has declined [3]. Midstream - Chemical: The operating rate of chemical products has declined [4]. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has increased [4]. - Infrastructure: It is the off - season for asphalt construction [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have warmed up at the end of the year [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flight schedules has declined [4]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price (7/1) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2365.7 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | | Spot price of eggs | 5.6 yuan/kg | - 4.62% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8600.0 yuan/ton | - 0.02% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15210.0 yuan/ton | 2.30% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 20.2 yuan/kg | - 0.44% | | | Spot price of copper | 80235.0 yuan/ton | 2.25% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22258.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | 20786.7 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121700.0 yuan/ton | 1.64% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17018.8 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3069.0 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | 726.6 yuan/ton | 0.48% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3252.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.9 yuan/square meter | 0.22% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 13928.3 yuan/ton | 2.88% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 826.7 | - 0.79% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.1 dollars/barrel | - 4.96% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 66.7 dollars/barrel | - 6.63% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4056.0 yuan/ton | 2.17% | | | Coal price | 726.0 yuan/ton | - 0.27% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5081.7 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 7503.3 yuan/ton | - 0.90% | | Chemical | Spot price of urea | 1829.0 yuan/ton | 1.39% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1325.0 yuan/ton | - 1.85% | | | National cement price index | 137.2 | - 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | 110.7 points | - 0.22% | | | National concrete price index | 96.7 points | - 1.58% | [38]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View The report focuses on whether overseas markets can re - enter the destocking cycle. Despite the closure of the export window due to overseas centralized delivery, the fundamentals remain bullish, with low zinc valuation and optimistic consumption expectations [4]. Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$33.43/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,990 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 23, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,030 yuan/ton and closed at 23,090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,845 lots, and the open interest was 93,107 lots. The highest price was 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,940 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 98,975 tons, down 275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Overseas inventory has slightly declined. Attention should be paid to whether actual consumption can support overseas markets to re - enter the destocking cycle after centralized delivery. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchase on demand, social inventory has stopped falling, and spot premiums are performing well. - The import window for zinc ore has opened, and domestic mine TC has stopped falling. After smelters' active winter storage, the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. - The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has widened, and maintenance in December has increased, reducing supply pressure. - The consumption end remains strong. Although the export window has closed, the fundamentals are still bullish, zinc valuation is low, and consumption expectations are optimistic [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 氧化铝现货报价缓慢下调 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21710元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21790元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-245元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-23日沪铝主力合约开于22115元/吨，收于22195元/吨，较上一交易日变化-45元/吨，最 高价达22205元/吨，最低价达到21980元/吨。全天交易日成交209413手，全天交易日持仓301815手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76089 吨，较上一交易日变化1吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-23SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2720元/吨，山东价格录得2650元/吨，河南价格录得 2740元/吨，广西价格录得2 ...

苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9230元/吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1030，较前一日变动-81；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-830，较前一日变动-81。 近期市场资讯，库存晚富士行情运行偏稳定，库内成交相对清淡，主要包装前期订购货源及客商自存货源陆续发 往市场。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存 货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞 80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库 价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库价格3.7-4.5元/斤不等。产区节日备货热度不高，客商拿货不积 极，包装自存货源为主。双旦前或继续维持目前走货状态，随着节日临近，包装发运或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the downward pressure on the unilateral prices of FU and LU from the crude oil end will continue [1] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding after a sharp correction [1] - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in the maintenance status of refineries. The short-term market pressure may be limited, but the overall supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.14% at 2,483 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.42% at 2,999 yuan/ton [1] - The improvement in processing profit has boosted the demand from downstream refineries, and fuel oil can be used as a supplement if there is a problem with the supply of diluted bitumen. The shipments from Russia and Iran decreased again in December, and drone attacks and sanctions remain constraints on supply [1] - Due to changes in the maintenance status of refineries (Azur and Dangote), the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. Azur Refinery's CDU unit and desulfurization unit have restarted or are expected to restart. Kuwait is expected to ship the first batch of low-sulfur fuel oil cargo on December 27, with an expected export volume of 47,000 tons in December [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - No strategies are proposed for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, with a 5.67% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 731,003 lots, and the open interest was 671,573 lots, up from 668,829 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 18,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,651 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [2] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 96,400 - 102,600 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 95,100 - 98,600 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,420 US dollars/ton, a change of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo continues to ferment. The SMM weekly inventory reduction is less than expected but still supports the strong trend. The total spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory reduction in December is expected to continue, but the reduction has slowed down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PA Alliance's prices are expected to be adjusted gradually in the first half - month, and the EC2602 contract is in a situation where the peak time of freight rates is being speculated. The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [1][6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of December 23, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1806.60, EC2604 contract is 1158.00, EC2606 contract is 1331.70, EC2608 contract is 1480.00, EC2610 contract is 1052.00, and EC2512 contract is 1606.00. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract will gradually follow the real - world quotes, with the current speculation point being whether the first half - month of January is the end of this round of freight rate increase [6][8][9] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes changed from 1580/2540 in the first week of January to 1560/2500 in the second week; HPL's price increased from 1535/2535 in the second half of December to 2135/3535 in the first half of January. Other alliances and companies also have corresponding price changes [1] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 2 - week monthly average capacity is 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000/327,900 TEU in WEEK52/53 respectively. In January, the monthly average capacity is 304,600 TEU, and in February, it is 284,700 TEU. There are also empty - sailings and TBNs in different months and alliances. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, with 250 ships delivered and a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU [4][8] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israel's remarks on building settlements in the Gaza Strip may damage the peace - making efforts and the cooperation intention of Arab countries. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the content other than the potential impact of geopolitical factors on the market and the relationship between supply and demand reflected in the shipping prices and capacity [3] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - contract oscillates, and the 2 - month contract oscillates with a slight upward bias. Arbitrage: None [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-24 债市情绪改善，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专 ...