1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent strength of the external market provides some support to the domestic market, but the upward driving force on the futures market is still limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On December 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market 4000 - 4160 yuan/ton; North China market 4250 - 4470 yuan/ton; East China market 4270 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4600 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4350 - 4520 yuan/ton; South China market 4400 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 590 and 582 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4594 and 4532 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 yuan/ton. In South China, they were 583 and 575 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4540 and 4478 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 and 15 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, Saudi Aramco's December CP increased, and the external swap price maintained a volatile and strong trend, raising the LPG import cost. In the spot market, the price in the East China region rose moderately yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained stable, with a general trading atmosphere and controllable upstream inventory pressure [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the Middle - East supply has tightened marginally recently, the maintenance of Kuwait's Azour refinery has been extended, and the domestic refinery supply is relatively stable. Overseas supply is tightened in the short - term but remains relatively loose in the medium - term. In terms of demand, the combustion - end demand is acceptable; in the deep - processing sector, the operating rate of PDH plants is still limited by profit factors [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [2]

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-05 盘面小幅反弹，短期市场矛盾有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.29%，报2442元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.73%，报3042 元/吨。 近日原油价格从低位小幅反弹，但油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，俄乌和平谈判的进展对短期市场情绪造成影 响，而中期成本端对燃料油单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，高硫燃料油裂解价差连续调整后需要炼厂端的增量需求来托底。 低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在减量。由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11 月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零，短期低硫燃料油市场支撑仍存。近日高低硫价差短期走势震荡偏强，但预 计上方空间有限。 | 图1：新加坡高硫380燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2：新加坡低硫燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | 图3：新加坡高硫燃料油掉期近月合约 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | 图4： ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-05 聚乙烯下游开工延续走低 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6776元/吨（-32），PP主力合约收盘价为6359元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为6700 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6880元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6350元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-76元/吨（-18），LL 华东基差为104元/吨（+32）， PP华东基差为-9元/吨（+23）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为359.7元/吨（-12.1），PP油制生产利润为-410.3元/吨（-12.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为-534.6元/吨（+23.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为136.7元/吨（+91.1），PP进口利润为-223.3元/吨（+5.9），PP出口利润为-23.4美元/吨（-0.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-05 现货库存充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2833元/吨，较前日变动-213元/吨，幅度-6.99%；菜粕2601合约2422元/吨，较前 日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M01+237，较前日变动+203；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+187，较前日变动 +213；广东地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M01+167，较前日变动+203。福建地 区菜粕现货价格2570元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+148，较前日变动-4。 美豆进口情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯， 咨询机构Safras & Mercado的调查显示，基于港口装运计划，12月份巴西大豆出口量估计为281.4 万吨。11月的大豆出口量估计为423.4万吨，高于去年同期的233.9万吨。10月份的大豆出口量估计为639.8万吨。作 物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士表示，巴西2 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-05 丙烯下游整体开工走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5885元/吨（-36），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（-15），丙烯华北现货价6050元/吨（-15）， 丙烯华东基差115元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差115元/吨（+1）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR188美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR58美元/吨（+2），进口利润-321元/吨（+6），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-250元/吨（+15）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润407元/吨（+69）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润622元/吨（+161）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润440元/吨（+11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-550元/吨（+18）；酚 酮开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-827元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，东华能源宁波PDH装置、茂名石化裂解装置检修，巨 ...

贵金属板块成交10437.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.41%；持仓金额4862.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.00%；成 交持仓比为326.71%。 能源化工板块成交3831.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.20%；持仓金额4645.49亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.25%；成 交持仓比为70.49%。 流动性日报 | 2025-12-05 市场流动性概况 2025-12-04，股指板块成交5422.17亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.31%；持仓金额12717.80亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.71%；成交持仓比为42.45%。 国债板块成交6338.89亿元，较上一交易日变动+82.55%；持仓金额7460.51亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.79%；成交 持仓比为86.52%。 基本金属板块成交6288.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+41.78%；持仓金额6733.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.96%； 成交持仓比为81.17%。 农产品板块成交3177.12亿元，较上一交易日变动+14.85%；持仓金额6081.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.22%；成 交持仓比为52.56%。 黑色建材板块成交2288 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory this week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The overall supply-demand logic of the fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short-process oil chemical plants had relatively high production pressure. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. - The strategy is unilateral neutral. The commissioning pressure is relatively large, and with the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. However, the price center of ethylene glycol has now fallen to the lowest level in the past two years, and recently, negative feedback from high-cost plants has gradually emerged, and the pressure of inventory accumulation has been alleviated [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -71 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1058 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the content. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester was at a low level, and the polyester load provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 75.3 tons, up 2.1 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 71.9 tons, up 1.1 tons month-on-month. The total planned arrivals at the main port of East China this week were 16.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary port were 4.1 tons, which were relatively high, and it is expected that the main port will continue to accumulate inventory [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene and a faster accumulation rate of port inventory. Domestic cracking load is low, and pure benzene production has declined. Downstream production is in the off - season and has further decreased, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL production dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol production rising, and aniline and adipic acid production fluctuating within a range [2] - Styrene: Styrene is still in the low - production maintenance stage, and the restart plan has been postponed. The port basis has strengthened slightly again, and factory inventory has declined again, but port inventory has not continued to be destocked, and there is still arrival pressure. Downstream enterprise procurement has driven the basis to strengthen. The downstream production shows differentiation. EPS production has a slight rebound in the off - season, but there is still inventory pressure; ABS production has decreased due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS production has continued to rise since the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure has been alleviated [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report presents figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][12][16] 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [19][21][29] 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Rate - For pure benzene, it shows the inventory in East China ports and the production rate. For styrene, it includes the inventory in East China ports, East China commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the production rate [35][40][41] 3.4 Styrene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Covers the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][47][51] 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Includes the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [55][62][70] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3] - Basis and inter - period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low [3] - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-05 郑棉期价窄幅震荡，糖价走势依旧趋弱 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13790元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨，幅度+0.07%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14854元/吨，较前一日变动-8元/吨，现货基差CF01+1064，较前一日变动-18；3128B棉全国均价14998元/吨， 较前一日变动-7元/吨，现货基差CF01+1208，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，据巴基斯坦棉花种植者协会(PCGA)2025/26年度最新数据，截至11月30日，新年度籽棉累计上市量 折皮棉约为79.6万吨，较前两周增加4.3万吨，同比（80.5万吨）减少1.1%，处于近年同期较低水平。其中，信德省 籽棉上市量折皮棉约为43.2万吨，同比（42.3万吨）增加2.0%；旁遮普省籽棉上市量折皮棉约为36.4万吨，同比（38.1 万吨）减少4.5%。从已上市棉花流向来看，巴基斯坦国内纱厂皮棉采购量约66.6万吨，出口约2.7万吨，剩余轧花 厂未售出库存约10.3万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。国际方面，USDA大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，而全球棉花消费量仅微幅 ...

绝对价格上涨抑制下游采购需求 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22020元/吨，较上一交易日变化220元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-60元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21890元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-190元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21900元/吨，较上一交易日变化210元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-04日沪铝主力合约开于21935元/吨，收于22060元/吨，较上一交易日变化165元/吨，最 高价达22220元/吨，最低价达到21925元/吨。全天交易日成交246366手，全天交易日持仓244457手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-04，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存530900吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-04SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2810元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 284 ...