纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-04 苯乙烯港口库存仍等待进一步回建 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差119元/吨（-118元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润552元/吨（+50元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存108600吨（+8000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存60800吨（-1500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率69.3%（-0.4%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润198元/吨（-254元/吨），PS生产利润-352元/吨（-134元/吨），ABS生产利润-896元/吨 （-73元/吨）。EPS开工率53.26%（-5.45%），PS开工率55.60%（-1.70%），ABS开工率66.10%（-0.70%）。 市场分析 商品有所止跌反弹，能化板块亦有所触底反弹，其中苯乙烯港口库存仍偏低，较回调低点反弹幅度尚可。 纯苯港口库存本周初小幅回落，虽然下游提货量偏低，但到港亦节奏性放缓。下游开工，苯乙烯开工逐步见底回 升，CPL开工进一步走低，苯胺、苯酚、己二酸开工维持高位。而国内纯苯开工仍偏低；而海外供应方面，美国有 可能对韩国关税提高，关注后续动向，或导致韩国纯苯发往中国压力 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-04 美豆承压运行，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2727元/吨，较前日变动-23元/吨，幅度-0.84%；菜粕2605合约2249元/吨，较前 日变动-27元/吨，幅度-1.19%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差 M05+443，较前日变动+33；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M05+293，较前日变动 +3；广东地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动跌-20元/吨，现货基差M05+293，较前日变动+3。福建地区菜 粕现货价格2440元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差RM05+191，较前日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，2月2日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年12月大豆压榨量为690万短吨，11 月为662万短吨；12月毛豆油产量为26.6亿磅，环比增加5%；豆粕产量为510.7万短吨，11月产量为488万短吨。美 国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为131.1万吨，市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot performance of propylene remains strong, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand. The supply increment of propylene is still limited due to the ongoing maintenance of some PDH plants and the slow load - increase of restarted plants. Downstream demand is supported by rigid demand, but high propylene prices may compress downstream profits and limit demand follow - up. The cost support for propylene is gradually weakening, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost of crude oil and propane and the maintenance of major PDH plants. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6,229 yuan/ton (+107). The East China spot price of propylene is 6,490 yuan/ton (-50), and the North China spot price is 6,420 yuan/ton (+30). The East China basis of propylene is 261 yuan/ton (-157), and the Shandong basis is 191 yuan/ton (-77). The 03 - 04 contract spread and PL03 - 05 contract spread are also mentioned in the report [1][6][8] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 70% (-1%). The difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 254 US dollars/ton (+15). The production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking methods, as well as the corresponding capacity utilization rates, are presented. The import profit of propylene is - 389 yuan/ton (+5) [1][21][24] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-90). Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates and production profits of n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are also provided [1][37][38] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810), and the PP powder in - plant inventory is also included in the report [1][63]

甲醇日报 | 2026-02-04 市场要闻与重要数据 关注伊朗就核问题与美国谈判进展 甲醇观点 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润280元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差138元/吨（+5），内蒙南线1800元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+3），鲁 南基差138元/吨（+8）；河南2000元/吨（-10），河南基差-47元/吨（-5）；河北2070元/吨（+55），河北基差83元/吨 （+60）。隆众内地工厂库存424720吨（-13700），西北工厂库存242100吨（-19300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单265660 吨（+27392），西北工厂待发订单163800吨（+13000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2225元/吨（-5），太仓基差-22元/吨（+0），CFR中国265美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差-29元/吨 （-5），常州甲醇2280元/吨；广东甲醇2225元/吨（-5），广东基差-22元/吨（+0）。隆众港口总库存1472051吨（+14600）， 江苏港口库存730851吨（+17900），浙江 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the trading and position - holding data of various market sectors on February 3, 2026, including changes in trading volume, position - holding amount, and trading - to - holding ratios compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on trading volume, position - holding amount, and trading - to - holding ratio of multiple market sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On February 3, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 1029.932 billion yuan, with a - 21.15% change compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 1733.042 billion yuan, with a + 1.24% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 59.12% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 369.366 billion yuan, a - 9.41% change from the previous day; the position - holding amount was 884.470 billion yuan, a + 0.85% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 41.00% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metal plate had a trading volume of 1142.206 billion yuan, a - 11.33% change; the position - holding amount was 680.110 billion yuan, a - 1.08% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 165.79%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 1576.183 billion yuan, a - 16.34% change; the position - holding amount was 517.719 billion yuan, a - 11.40% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 291.69% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 570.175 billion yuan, a - 36.54% change; the position - holding amount was 484.615 billion yuan, a + 0.27% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 104.21% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 271.730 billion yuan, a - 22.54% change; the position - holding amount was 613.846 billion yuan, a + 0.29% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 43.06% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 205.094 billion yuan, a - 18.58% change; the position - holding amount was 307.673 billion yuan, a + 0.35% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 58.54% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EG market is weak before the holiday. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol (EG) remains high, with limited reduction in syngas production load. There is significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas supply is expected to ease in mid - to late February. Demand has weakened as the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been implemented since mid - January, leading to a decline in weaving and polyester loads. Overall, the EG fundamentals are weak, with high inventory accumulation pressure from January to February and potential improvement in March [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, 0.00% change). The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3657 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, -1.48% change). The spot basis of EG in East China was -100 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was -62 US dollars/ton (down 11 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was -853 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, resulting in an accelerated decline in weaving and polyester loads, and the support from rigid demand has weakened [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 89.7 tons (up 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports in East China last week was 13.6 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports was 2.8 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 12.3 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1] Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the atmosphere in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has fallen back to the previous low - level range. It is advisable to observe market dynamics. - Inter - period: Not recommended - Inter - variety: Not recommended [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The report presents the trading data of various index options on February 2, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market conditions of index options. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 2, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.111 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.3664 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.9413 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 74,700 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.8727 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 66,700 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 165,200 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 407,200 contracts [1]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.79, with a month - on - month change of +0.23; the position PCR was reported at 0.77, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08. Similar data for other options are also provided, such as the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.91, with a month - on - month change of +0.20, and the position PCR was 0.84, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04 [2]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 18.74%, with a month - on - month change of +0.39%. For example, the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 18.55%, with a month - on - month change of +0.23%, etc. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term market is volatile due to global liquidity repricing, but the inflation narrative remains unchanged in the long - term [1][2] - Different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and risk characteristics, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair on January 30th. After the market priced in the "Review of Fed Independence", silver fell over 30% and gold fell 11% on a single - day, hitting the largest decline since March 1980. On February 2nd, the global commodity market was severely sold off, and major exchanges raised margin requirements [1] - The central government emphasized consumption promotion and price stability at the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11th. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15th, and the Ministry of Finance issued 5 policy documents on January 20th. Geopolitical tensions globally, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill [2] Commodity Analysis - The long - term supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unrelieved. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to cut oil prices to $50 per barrel. The chemical industry's methanol and PTA are relatively resistant to decline. The agricultural sector needs to pay attention to weather and pig diseases. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [4] Important News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and price limit ratio of the silver deferred contract. CME raised the margin rates for gold and silver trading. Trump said negotiations on Greenland were about to reach an agreement. OPEC+ will keep oil production stable in March. The US federal government had a "technical shutdown". Iran and the US are moving towards negotiations [5]

下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-02，尿素主力收盘1787元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-17 元/吨（-17）；河南基差：-17元/吨（+3）；江苏基差：13元/吨（+3）；尿素生产利润205元/吨（-20），出口利润936 元/吨（+8）。 供应端：截至2026-02-02，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-02-02，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素日报 | 2026-02-03 尿素价格窄幅震荡，农业需求跟进，春节收单压力较小，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加 技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PDH device restarts partially, and supply-demand drivers gradually weaken. The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the tight supply situation is expected to ease. The downstream demand is supported by rigid demand, but the follow - up of demand may be limited due to cost pressure. The cost - side support for propylene is gradually weakening. The future main drivers lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side and the maintenance status of major PDH devices [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread of propylene 03 - 04 contracts, the spread of PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][12][14] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures show the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [20][23][35] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][48][53] 4. Propylene Inventory - Figures display the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [64]