贵金属日报 | 2025-12-05 美国就业数据趋弱 哈塞特再次放鸽 市场分析 就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为2022年9月以来的最低水平。另据美国私 人数据提供商Revelio Labs，美国11月非农就业减少9000个，同时10月数据下修至减少1.55万个。另外，美国挑战 者企业11月裁员7.1万人，同比增24%，今年累计裁员人数攀升至117万。降息节奏方面，美国 白宫国家经济委员 会主任哈塞特表示，实际工资增长现在高于通胀；可能会在下一次美联储会议上看到降息，将降息25个基点左右。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-04，沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于953.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.34%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于954.50元/克，收于958.46元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.53%。 2025-12-04，沪银主力合约开于13691.00元/千克，收于13424.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.16%。当日成交 量为2280887手，持仓量为452403手。昨日夜盘沪银主 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-05 液氯价格有支撑，烧碱负荷不减 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4500元/吨（-41）；华东基差-40元/吨（+21）;华南基差-20元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4480元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+25）；电石利润-25元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-13.8美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2140元/吨（-25）；山东32%液碱基差141元/吨（+25）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（+0）；山东5 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 库存继续去化，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-12-04，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于93800元/吨，收于93700元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-1.26%。当日 成交量为663458手，持仓量为560629手，前一交易日持仓量562836手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为760元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单10422手，较上个交易日变化770手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价92200-95800元/吨，较前一交易日变化-350元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价90500-92600元/吨，较前一交易日变化-350元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1175美元/吨，较前一日变化-30美元/吨。据 SMM数据，下游材料厂询价和成交行为趋于活跃。目前，上下游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集 中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月 国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面，12月新能源汽车销量预计仍表现亮眼；储能市场则 延续供需两旺态势，供应偏紧格局依旧。电芯 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-05 债市连续走跌，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社保与 ...

服务行业：1）商务部发言人何亚东4日在商务部例行新闻发布会上表示，岁末年初是传统的消费旺季，商务部将 坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，扩大优质商品和服务供给，创新消费场景，更好地满足人民美好生活需要。何亚 东介绍，商务部将加快推进消费新业态、新模式、新场景试点和国际化消费环境建设工作，打造更加舒适便捷的 消费环境。2）12月2日，《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》国家标准发布实施。针对社会广泛关注的外卖平台非理性 竞争，标准提出外卖平台开展价格促销时不能扰乱市场价格认知与正常秩序。标准除直接限制非理性竞争行为外， 还通过提高外卖餐品质量、在算法中为配送员"降速"以及加强消费者权益保护等多个方面形成系统性合力，促进 外卖行业市场竞争回归理性。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-12-05 上游：1）有色：铜价格回升较多。2）能源：液化天然气价格下行。3）化工：尿素价格回落。 关注下游年末促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：中国自主研发CPU发布。 1）4日下午，商务部新闻发言人就开展稀土相关物项出口管制进行了回应。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东：中国政府依法依规开展稀土相关物项的出口管制工作 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The nickel market has a supply surplus and high inventories, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market has low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and stainless - steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,870 yuan/ton and closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 103,322 (-9,126) lots, and the open interest was 118,041 (-577) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a weak oscillation trend. After the recent macro - sentiment market ended, the fundamentals remained in a surplus situation, and the nickel price entered a narrow oscillation range [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, and the prices were weakly stable. The market was basically in a situation of having prices but no goods, waiting for new tenders from mines. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. Downstream iron plants were in a loss, and had a price - pressing mentality when purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants planned to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium went to +25, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,096 (+2,501) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] - **Strategy** - With high inventories and a continuous supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy for single - side trading is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless - steel opened at 12,465 yuan/ton and closed at 12,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 84,742 (+4,381) lots, and the open interest was 96,076 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless - steel showed a slight downward oscillation trend, performing weakly. Caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, both long and short sides lacked a clear direction, and market trading willingness was low [3] - After several days of small rebounds, the stainless - steel spot market returned to normal, with stable spot quotes and a few cases of selling at a discount. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 881.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. There is currently no arbitrage opportunity. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward. The implementation of the price increase in January and the delivery of container ships in 2025 need to be closely monitored [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of December 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,733 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 31,055 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1585.00, 1090.10, 1255.10, 1385.60, 1040.20, and 1649.10 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes from December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from 1440/2240 in the second week of December to 1530/2400 in the third week, and it announced a price increase letter of 2275/3500 for January. The upper - half - month price of MSC + Premier Alliance was 1485/2465 in December, and the lower - half - month price was 1605/2665. The 12 - month contract settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The preliminary estimate of SCFIS on December 15th is around 1600 - 1650 points, and around 1700 - 1750 points on December 22nd [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 318,400 TEU, and in January, it was 328,000 TEU, with 4 blank sailings in December and 3 TBNs in January (all from the OA Alliance). Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in week 51. As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The resumption of the Suez Canal in 2026 may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided in the text other than some data charts mentioned, so no detailed summary can be made.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is basically stable. After the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with increasing production, declining consumption, and rising inventory. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened and closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton ( - 0.50%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2601 main contract was 193,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 7,228 lots, an increase of 336 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 4 was 558,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to rise this week, with the mainstream price range at 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton, about 450 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous week [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 57,270 yuan/ton and closing at 56,915 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,653 lots, and the trading volume was 175,576 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the polysilicon inventory at 291,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.38%) and the silicon wafer inventory at 21.30 GW (a month - on - month change of 9.23%). The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 7.50%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.95 GW (a month - on - month change of - 0.58%) [4] - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. In November, the production in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-05 国债期货集体收跌，日债持续承压 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。中国央行12月5日将开展100 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea spot prices have increased, but the sentiment for taking delivery has slowed. The operating rates of compound fertilizer in Northeast China and Hubei have continued to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall improvement in the operating rate. The melamine plant has resumed production, with the operating rate rebounding and rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage continues to purchase. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to - long term. The gas - based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter will gradually start in December. Due to the follow - up of reserve demand, export stocking, and the improvement of compound fertilizer operating rate, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation, which is expected to support the spot market. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down, and continuous attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8][13][15] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][30][32] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [29][34][37][44] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventories, port inventories, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [50][53][56] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton (- 4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,700 yuan/ton (+ 20). The price of small - piece anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 22 yuan/ton (+ 34), in Henan was 22 yuan/ton (+ 24), and in Jiangsu was 12 yuan/ton (+ 24). The urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the export profit was 928 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] Supply Side - As of December 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 million tons (- 73,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons (+ 5,000 tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.53% (+ 3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+ 0.86%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 7.35 days (+ 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]