燃料油日报 | 2026-02-04 地缘局势边际缓和，关注美伊谈判进展 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌3.81%，报2701元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.28%，报3168 元/吨。 由于伊朗与美国计划在2月6日开展谈判，地缘局势边际缓和，本周原油价格大幅回调，带动燃料油在内的能化品 价格下跌。其中，由于伊朗是高硫燃料油主要生产国，FU对地缘反应的弹性要大于LU。需要注意的是，在伊朗与 美国谈判出相对明确的结果或信号前，市场可能受到消息面的反复扰动，叠加春节假期临近，需要保持谨慎。 站在基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油呈现"东强西弱"格局，近期亚太地区现货边际收紧，新加坡库存连续下滑， 国内注册仓单量减少，排除宏观与地缘层面的扰动外，自身市场结构短期存在支撑。低硫燃料油方面，整体市场 矛盾有限，近期科威特与尼日利亚出口回升，但RFCC装置检修量下滑对低硫油组分完成了一定消化。 策略 高硫方面：中性，短期观望为主；关注美伊谈判进展 低硫方面：中性，短期观望为主；关注美伊谈判进展 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2603/2605价差机会（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 单边：区间操作为主 美联储鹰派言论升温，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-03日沪镍主力合约2603开于132640元/吨，收于134830元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.25%，当日成交量 为663364（-144776）手，持仓量为101500（-9445）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈 "低开 — 探底 — 震荡回升" 的弱势整理走势，整体在宏观情绪与产业基本面博 弈下寻求支撑。宏观方面，隔夜美联储鹰派言论升温，市场担忧流动性收紧，引发大宗商品普跌，伦镍大幅下挫， 拖累沪镍开盘走弱。国内宏观政策相对稳定，但节前资金避险情绪上升，抑制价格反弹高度。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场与下游走势分化。受海外宏观消息影响，沪镍期货大幅调整，下游镍 铁价格随之回调。然而，镍矿端受前期极高的FOB成交成本支撑，CIF报价维持高位，难以松动。据悉，菲律宾1.4% 品位镍矿至印尼的CIF成交价已达到58-60美元，国内港口同品位报价也跟涨至相近水平。市场呈现僵持状态。镍 矿贸易商基于采购成本，报价坚挺。而下游镍铁厂因产品价格下跌，利润 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-04 长丝价格坚挺，产销维持低位 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。周一原油大幅下跌，地缘溢价回吐，Brent油价从上月末的70美元/桶附近下跌 至65~66美元/桶附近。上周末美伊释放出进行和谈的信号，同时伊朗官员表示，有关伊朗革命卫队计划在霍尔木兹 海峡举行军事演习的媒体报道是错误的，显示出地缘风险有降温信号。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN310美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX基本面未有明显变动，实货浮动价略有反 弹，PXN在近端累库下回撤。近期PX效益提升带来供应增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端 检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的 逻辑难证实，关注PX检修兑现和进口情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -68元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+3元/吨），PTA现货加工费376元/吨（环比变动-48元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费423元/吨（环比变动+21元/吨），基本面方面，聚酯工厂春节减产计划陆续兑现，PTA近端供 需趋累。中长期随着产能集中投放周期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption has entered the off - season, with the output of downstream processed products declining month - on - month. The market trading is rather sluggish despite the decline in absolute prices. Social inventories have started to accumulate slowly, with the absolute inventory value still at a relatively low level over the years, and the expected peak of inventory accumulation is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, and the import window is closed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, smelting still faces some losses, and the pressure of continuous short - supply of zinc ingots is not obvious. In the long term, the report is still optimistic about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - $5.35/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 25,050 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 25,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 3, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,975 yuan/ton and closed at 24,960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 315,836 lots, and the open interest was 82,293 lots. The highest intraday price reached 25,240 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,615 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of February 3, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 108,975 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market has seen a significant rebound from oversold conditions, while the pattern of weak supply and demand persists. The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, and the polysilicon price is also predicted to remain volatile [1][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,825 yuan/ton and closed at 8,815 yuan/ton, a change of -55 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 234,800 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 2, 2026, was 14,855 lots, a change of 912 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest China, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in the main regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: There are expectations of production cuts and shutdowns for industrial silicon in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off-season, the supply side shows a contraction trend [2] - Demand side: The demand side of industrial silicon is sluggish. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax has led to an expected short - term increase in polysilicon demand, but the demand - side transmission of industrial silicon is blocked due to inventory accumulation. In February, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the supply shrank. There are expectations of production cuts in the organic silicon sector, the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will be mainly stable with a weakening tendency [2] Strategy - In the short term, due to the interweaving of long and short factors, the price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. With the reduction of both supply and demand, combined with the price increase transmission effects of coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is obvious. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. The recommended strategy is short - term range - bound operation [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 47,200 yuan/ton and closed at 50,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 6.61% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,411 lots (40,278 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 18,297 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 2.20 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.00 yuan/kg). The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 33.30 tons, a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,200.00 tons, a month - on - month change of -1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75 GW, a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3] Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have clearly planned to stop production, and the supply shows a contraction trend. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support has failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating the clearance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the new quotes of silicon wafers and the "rush to export" situation brought about by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates; in the long term, attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side and the progress of inventory reduction. The recommended strategy is short - term range - bound operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [6] Product Prices - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers is 1.23 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers is 1.33 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells is 0.27 yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells is about 0.28 yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells is about 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells is 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells is 0.44 yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells is 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm is 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm is 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm is 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm is 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W [5]

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11160元/吨，较前交易日变动-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.53%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1150，较前交易日变动-500；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1820，较前交易日变动-10；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.92元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH03+320，较前交易日变动-430。 据农业农村部监测，2月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.95，比昨天下降0.17个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为132.84，比昨天下降0.20个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.56元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；牛肉66.13 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉64.73元/公斤，比昨天上升1.4%；鸡蛋8.58元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；白条鸡17.17 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 全国生猪价格震荡运行，多数地区呈现窄幅下行态势，南方局部地区仍有一定挺 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-04 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供给端存在扰动，玻璃偏强震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面偏强震荡运行，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现尚可。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进展。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾相对有限，部分碱厂检修结束，供给有所回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投产， 同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面。后期持续关注浮法 玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：市场情绪谨慎，合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日硅锰期货盘面震荡运行。现货方面，节前钢厂备货陆续结束，主流钢厂暂未展开新一轮招标，报 价较为坚挺。6517北方市场价格5600-5700元/吨，南方 ...

地缘情绪扰动减弱，盘面转为震荡 液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-04 市场分析 1、 2月3日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4520；东北市场，3790-4150；华北市场，4200-4530；华东市场，4120-4400； 沿江市场，4840-5130；西北市场，4300-4500；华南市场，4800-4900。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、 2026年3月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷615美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷605美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币 价格丙烷4713元/吨，涨33元/吨，丁烷4636元/吨，跌6元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷597美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 币价格丙烷4652元/吨，涨33元/吨，丁烷4575元/吨，跌6元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着伊朗与美国计划开展谈判，地缘局势边际缓和，本周原油价格大幅回调，带动LPG在内的能化品价格下跌。 但在伊朗与美国谈判出相对明确的结果或信号前，市场可能受到消息面的反复扰动，叠加春节假期临近，需要保 持谨慎。 从LPG自身基本面与市场结构来看，近期 ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-04 豆一流通偏紧抬价，花生交投趋弱维稳 大豆观点 市场分析 中性 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4384.00元/吨，较前日变化-9.00元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A05+56，较前日变化+9，幅度32.14%。 风险 无 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北地区大豆行情整体持稳，成交方面则因拍卖活动带动表现活跃，市场采购情绪较高，持 货看涨心态较为普遍。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江 双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙 江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格宽幅震荡。昨日中储粮单向拍卖交易呈现显著溢价，当前市场节前备货周期与优质粮 源结构性偏紧格局形成叠加，贸易端惜售挺价意愿持续较强。尽管春 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The external environment has stabilized, and the oil and fat market is oscillating. The market has returned to the supply - demand pattern. Currently in the production - reduction season, the production - reduction data of Malaysian origin from various information agencies is in line with expectations. Coupled with positive factors from the Indonesian origin, palm oil has strong long - term price support. However, after the recent rapid price increase, there is pressure for price correction [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9094.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.89% from the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8086.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan or - 0.07%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9215.00 yuan/ton, a change of +79.00 yuan or +0.86% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9030.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.89%, and the spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with no change. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8380.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton or - 0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, a change of - 14.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755.00, a change of - 19.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were estimated at 944,885 tons, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were 1,375,718 tons, an increase of 14.89% from the previous month [2] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued an opinion on promoting rural revitalization. It includes strengthening market monitoring and information release of agricultural products, coordinating market - based purchases and policy - based storage, and promoting reasonable prices of important agricultural products. It also involves setting minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat and improving the target price policy for cotton [2] - Indian palm oil imports last month jumped to 766,000 tons, the highest since October 2025, compared with 507,204 tons in December [2] - According to SPPOMA, from January 1 - 31, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - The CEO of the US Soybean Export Association said that global demand growth is beneficial to the outlook of US soybean exports this year. While China remains the largest market, its demand for US soybeans has declined, and demand from countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, and South American countries is growing [2] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a "Neutral" stance [3]