证券研究报告 2025年08月25日 海外行业报告：行业深度研究 DeepSeek V3.1版本正式发布，坚定看好中国AI投资机会 作者： 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 李泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520110002 分析师 樊程安吉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524080001 分析师 杨雨辰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521110001 分析师 刘诗雨 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524120001 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 全球AI周报 摘要 ◼ 重点公司财报AI进展 ◼ 全球AI动态： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 ➢ Zoom ：2025年Q2业绩稳健增长，AI与通信产品成增长引擎。第二季度AI Companion的月度活跃用户同比增长超四倍。 Zoom联络中心表现 突出，ARR超10万美元客户数达229家，同比增长94家，前十大交易均来自对主流竞品的替代。 ➢ Workday 2025年Q2营收稳健增长，AI相关净新增ACV同比翻倍。2025 年第二季度，Workday 营收 23.48亿美元，同比增长12. ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry outlook for Q3 is optimistic, with a focus on domestic computing power and self-controllable directions. The release of DeepSeek V3.1 model is expected to catalyze industry turning points by optimizing for next-generation domestic chips [2][16] - Nvidia's H20 chip sales plans may change, highlighting the long-term importance of establishing a domestic computing chip supply chain. Domestic model development companies are expected to increase procurement and usage of domestic chips [3][17] - The global AI smart glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with a 110% year-on-year increase in shipments in H1 2025. Major companies are expected to launch new AI smart glasses, driving demand [4][18] Summary by Sections Q3 Semiconductor Outlook - The release of DeepSeek V3.1 is designed for next-generation domestic chips, enhancing the synergy between domestic computing power and models, which is expected to accelerate the self-controllable process in the industry [2][16] - Nvidia has paused production of H20 chips for the Chinese market, indicating a shift towards developing a new AI chip based on the Blackwell architecture, which is expected to outperform H20 [3][17] July Semiconductor Industry Data - In July, the semiconductor supply chain showed stable growth, with rising orders in wafer foundry and packaging testing sectors. The overall delivery times are expected to increase, with prices continuing to rise [5][19] - The semiconductor market is entering a recovery phase, with global sales projected to reach approximately $626.87 billion in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth [38][39] Key Recommendations - Focus on domestic chip design companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Chipone Technology, as well as foundry and packaging companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor [3][17][7] - In the AI SoC and storage segments, companies like Hengxuan Technology and Jiangbolong are recommended due to their potential in adapting to computing power needs [4][18][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][4]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is a leading player in the global TV industry, with a focus on high-end products and global operations driving steady market share expansion [4]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth in various segments, particularly in the display business and internet services, indicating robust operational performance [2][3]. - The strategic focus on cost control and efficiency improvements has led to enhanced profitability, with adjusted net profit showing significant year-on-year growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, TCL Electronics reported revenue of HKD 54.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and an adjusted net profit of HKD 1.06 billion, up 62% [1]. - The display business generated revenue of HKD 33.42 billion, with significant contributions from large-size displays and smart commercial displays [2]. Business Segments - The display segment saw a revenue increase of 10.9%, with large-size displays growing by 9.4% and smart commercial displays by 9.4% [2]. - Internet business revenue rose by 20.3% to HKD 1.46 billion, with overseas revenue increasing by 46.3% [2]. - The photovoltaic business experienced remarkable growth, with revenue up 111.3% to HKD 11.14 billion [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 15.3%, slightly down by 0.6 percentage points due to a higher proportion of low-margin photovoltaic business [3]. - The company effectively reduced its overall expense ratio, leading to an increase in adjusted net profit margin by 0.5 percentage points to 1.9% [3]. Future Outlook - TCL Electronics is actively expanding into new business areas such as smart glasses and companion robots, with significant market share achievements in these segments [3]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in adjusted net profit, projected at HKD 2.34 billion, HKD 2.84 billion, and HKD 3.35 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability despite challenges in its equipment business, which has been a drag on growth [1][2] - The cooling component revenue reached 5.41 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 8.8% year-on-year, while the equipment business revenue fell to 480 million yuan, down 31.4% [2] - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigeration component sector, with ongoing structural upgrades in its home appliance business and expansion into the high-growth new energy vehicle thermal management sector [3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 540 million yuan, up 12.9% [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 17.3%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 18.3% in Q2 2025 [2] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.12 billion yuan, 1.31 billion yuan, and 1.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 12.6x, 10.8x, and 9.2x [3] Market Position and Growth Prospects - The company is leveraging opportunities in the secondary supply chain and is gradually establishing a new growth curve [3] - The domestic central air conditioning market saw a decline of 15.9% in H1 2025, impacting the equipment business, which has a longer cycle and fluctuating revenue recognition [2] - The company has optimized its expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing improvements in Q2 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [27] - The industry investment rating is "Outperform," suggesting an expected industry index increase of over 5% within the same timeframe [27] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive momentum with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% and significant inflows from southbound funds, totaling 165.1 billion yuan for the week [1] - The AI sector is highlighted as a key area of opportunity, particularly with the release of DeepSeek V3.1, which boasts 671 billion total parameters and improved performance metrics [2][7] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of internet and consumer sectors, with companies like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba showing robust earnings and growth potential [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.27% with a trading volume of 1.4 trillion yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.89% [1] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow of 165.1 billion yuan this week, totaling 8910.9 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 119.8% of the total net inflow for 2024 [1] AI Sector - DeepSeek V3.1 was released, featuring a mixed reasoning architecture and improved efficiency, achieving high scores in various benchmarks [2][7] - ByteDance's M3-Agent framework was launched, outperforming mainstream models in multiple tests, indicating a strong competitive edge in AI capabilities [8] Internet and Consumer Trends - Bilibili and Kuaishou reported Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations, with Bilibili's revenue at 7.34 billion yuan and Kuaishou's at 35.05 billion yuan [3] - Pop Mart's H1 revenue reached 13.88 billion yuan, surpassing expectations, driven by global IP expansion and strong overseas growth [4] Automotive Sector - XPeng announced a collaboration with Volkswagen, expanding its platform offerings, while NIO's new ES8 model is gaining traction in the market [5] - RoboSense reported a 24.4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, with significant increases in its robotics business [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.90 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][6][23]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, with a net profit of 1.93 billion CNY, down 12.8% year-on-year [1]. - The light building materials segment saw a revenue drop of 8.67% to 8.90 billion CNY, while the two wings (waterproof and coating materials) showed growth, with revenues increasing by 5.99% and 44.42% respectively [2]. - The company is investing in new production lines to enhance capacity and competitiveness in the East China region, which is expected to improve profitability through new product premium effects [2]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the first half was 30.3%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin dropping to 14.6%, down 2 percentage points [3]. - Operating cash flow saw a significant decline of 52.9% year-on-year, amounting to 960 million CNY, primarily due to a decrease in cash collection ratio [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3.90 billion CNY, 4.48 billion CNY, and 5.11 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4]. Business Strategy - The company is focused on a "one main two wings" development strategy, aiming for global expansion and diversification in its product offerings [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing investment in industrial coatings and the restructuring of its paint business to enhance product variety and market presence [2][4].

公司报告 | 半年报点评 川投能源（600674） 证券研究报告 雅砻江水电为业绩增量主力，控股资产盈利稳健 事件 公司公布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 7.12 亿元， 同比+18%；实现归母净利润 24.6 亿元，同比+6.9%。 控股资产盈利能力稳步提升 随着银江水电站机组的陆续投产发电，公司上半年完成发电量 23.6 亿千瓦 时，同比+17.8%，电量增速与营业收入增速基本一致。 上半年公司主营业务毛利率 46.6%，相较于去年同期提升 2pct，控股资产 的盈利能力在稳步提升。 参股：雅砻江水电为业绩增量主力 ①雅砻江水电： 2025 年上半年雅砻江水电发电量 430 亿千瓦时，同比+12.7%；营业收入 121.7 亿元，同比+7%；净利润 49.2 亿元，同比+11.7%；其中 Q2 营业收入 55.05 亿元，同比+4.2%；净利润 19.19 亿元，同比+4.7%。 雅砻江水电营业收入增速低于电量增速主要原因或为电价下滑。根据我们 估算，雅砻江水电 25 年上半年不含税上网电价相较于去年同期下浮约 1.5 分/千瓦时。四川省 2025 年电力交易取消综合一口价， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of chip distribution analysis in identifying market trends and potential breakthroughs in various sectors, particularly focusing on the support from mid-term and long-term chip profits for index upward movements [2][6][10]. Market Review - The A-share market experienced a 2.95% increase during the week of August 11-15, with a daily average trading volume of 2,098.3 billion yuan, reflecting high market activity [2][19]. - Key sectors such as brokerage and PCB showed strong performance, with a notable increase in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up from 70 to 238, indicating enhanced profit-making opportunities [2][19]. Key Themes - **AIDC**: The report highlights a high level of activity in the AI-driven computing infrastructure sector, driven by policy support and increasing demand, with a projected market growth rate exceeding 25% annually from 2023 to 2028, reaching over 280 billion yuan by 2028 [43][48]. - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The report notes that business development (BD) transactions are opening up growth opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical companies, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing R&D and clinical applications [51][52]. - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at curbing excessive competition, which are expected to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacities and promote high-quality industry development [54][55]. Policy Dynamics - Recent policies include the implementation of financial subsidies for service industry loans and personal consumption loans, aimed at stimulating market activity and supporting economic recovery [60][61]. - The report also mentions the government's focus on digital infrastructure and the promotion of digital economy initiatives, which are expected to drive growth across various sectors [59]. Industry Trends - The report identifies significant events such as the World Robot Conference and advancements in AI technologies, indicating a growing emphasis on automation and intelligent systems in various industries [4][43]. - The report suggests that sectors like steel, pig farming, and cement are likely to benefit from supply-side improvements due to government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and enhancing product quality [54].

Group 1 - The report highlights a recovery in domestic fiscal revenue and expenditure in July, with tax revenue showing a positive year-on-year growth, while non-tax revenue continues to decline [2][26] - Internationally, market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased following comments from Powell, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 2025 [2][27] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as AI, consumer stocks, and the internet, emphasizing the importance of valuation in the consumer sector's recovery [2][27] Group 2 - The quantitative timing signals indicate a continued upward trend in the market, with a significant positive money-making effect, suggesting that mid-term incremental capital is likely to continue entering the market [3] - The industry allocation model recommends focusing on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, which are expected to benefit from policy-driven growth [3] - Short-term signals indicate potential rebounds for gold stocks after adjustments [3] Group 3 - The report on BYD emphasizes the establishment of a unique all-terrain racetrack, which serves as a cultural and technological bridge between the company and its users, promoting high-end product development [8] - BYD's high-end strategy is not limited to showcasing technology but aims to enhance product offerings, with several new models set to launch in the second half of 2025 [8] Group 4 - Shanghai Jahwa's H1 2025 performance shows a revenue increase of 4.75% year-on-year, with a significant profit growth of 11.66%, driven by strong performance in its beauty and personal care segments [21] - The company is focusing on brand enhancement and product innovation, with core brands showing strong growth and market positioning [21] Group 5 - The report on Wancheng Group indicates a significant revenue growth of 128% and a net profit increase of 251% in Q1 2025, driven by an expansion in store numbers and a focus on supply chain efficiency [18][20] - The company is transitioning towards a discount store model, which is expected to enhance its market presence and profitability [20]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 把握调整后的信用票息 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250824 一、信用调整了多少？ 本周（8/18-8/24），信用债收益率跟随利率债调整，且调整幅度多高 于利率，信用利差有所走阔： 超长信用本周跌幅较为明显，部分中高等级 7-10 年期普信品种跌幅逾 10bp，7-10 年期二级资本债跌幅弱于普信； 3-5 年信用品种跌幅亦不低，且城投债>二永债>中短票； 2 年期及以内的短端品种当周跌幅相对不深，部分信用利差小幅收窄。 二、信用，谁在买？谁在卖？ 近期，从主要买盘行为看，整体呈现如下特征： 基金为代表的交易盘整体净卖出，尤其是对二永等类利率品种； 理财、保险等配置盘继续逢调整买入，但整体集中在 3 年期以内的中 短端债项。 三、调整后的信用"扛跌性"如何？ 计算按当前收益率持有各品种三个月的静态"扛跌性"： 1 年内的短端品种票息保护较为充足，多在 50+bp； 4-5 年期信用品种目前"扛跌性"约在 10-20bp，虽然对应品种期间 跌幅较深，但由于当前该期限段收益率曲线整体相对平缓，故相较于 7 月 18 日的"扛跌性"变动不大； 5 年期以上的超长信用债整体"扛跌性 ...