宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 受第二轮抢出口拉动，4 月出口同比 8.1%，较预期更为强劲；加之中美 拟进行对等经贸会谈，美关税烈度整体趋缓，预计二次抢出口可望贯穿二季度， 下半年出口下行风险犹存。4 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 8.1%，较春节调 整后的 3 月同比增速回升达 2.4 个百分点，在 4 月特朗普推出"对等关税"之 后又针对部分国家地区实施 90 天缓冲、针对半导体等商品实施豁免，造成出 口企业预期巨大波动的背景下，较我们此前稍显乐观的预期（5.7%）更加强劲， 凸显出新一轮"抢出口"显著的拉动作用。近期我国同意与美方进行对等经贸 会谈，美国内需受到短期刺激效应同时关税烈度整体趋缓，预计我国的二次抢 出口有望贯穿整个二季度。4 月进口同比跌幅较 3 月收窄 4.1 个百分点至-0.2%， 进口反弹带动当月货物贸易顺差小幅收窄至 961.8 亿美元但仍维持高位。美国 发起的本轮关税战进入拉锯阶段，美方试图将我国强大的产业链生产能力从其 供给侧逐步剥离的意图尚未根本性改变，下半年我国出口下行风险犹存。 关税动荡中边际缓和，我国域外协同生产活跃度陡升；人民币汇率指数小 幅走弱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation expectation and tariff implementation may be the key observation signals for the Fed. The Fed emphasizes the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk), and the logic of inflation, economy, and tariffs has become more direct and clear. Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. The Fed reiterates waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [3][13]. - For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%". For the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on the Fed's key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Monetary Policy Remains at the Level of the March Meeting - On May 7th, the third FOMC meeting of this year ended. The federal funds rate remained in the 4.25 - 4.50% range, and other monetary policies remained unchanged compared with the March meeting. The pace of balance sheet reduction slowed down as before, with the monthly natural maturity of Treasury bonds adjusted from $25 billion in March to $5 billion [2][8]. 1.2 Inflation Expectation and Tariff Implementation May be the Key Observation Signals for the Fed - "Tariff" is an important keyword in this meeting. For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%", and for the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. As of now, only the UK has initially reached a negotiation with the US, and specific details need to be finalized in the next few weeks. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3][10]. 1.3 Comparison of the May Press Conference and the March Statement - **Stagflation Risk**: Emphasize the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk) [13][14]. - **Logic of Inflation, Economy, and Tariffs**: The logic has become more direct and clear. The Q1 GDP decline reflects the fluctuation of net exports, which is likely due to large - scale imports by companies before potential tariffs. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained the previous quarter's level, with a slowdown in consumer spending growth and a recovery in equipment and intangible asset investment. The sentiment in household and business surveys has declined sharply, and the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, strongly reflecting concerns about trade policies. The attribution of inflation to tariffs has become more "direct" [12][13][16]. - **Inflation Impact**: Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. If the announced large - scale tariff increase policy is continuously implemented, it is likely to lead to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and increased unemployment [13][22]. - **Long - term Interest Rate Expectation**: Most long - term inflation expectation indicators are still consistent with the 2% inflation target [23]. - **Price Stability**: Price stability is emphasized as the cornerstone of a strong labor market [24]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: Reiterate waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [13][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.041 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 95 million yuan, an increase of 141.81% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.122 billion yuan, an increase of 9.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 37 million yuan, turning positive from a loss [4] - The company’s sales volume of neodymium-iron-boron reached 12,900 tons in 2024, up 19.33% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 32.24% to 175.04 yuan/kg [5] - The sales revenue from neodymium-iron-boron materials for electric vehicles in Q1 2025 was 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.14%, accounting for 51% of total revenue [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s gross margin for neodymium-iron-boron magnetic steel business was 14.54% in 2024, an increase of 8.48 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 230 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 487 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39, 23, and 18 [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 9.023 billion yuan in 2024 to 13.311 billion yuan by 2027 [16] Industry Insights - The supply side of rare earth materials is expected to be constrained, with limited incremental supply due to changes in import regulations and reduced imports from Myanmar and the US [6] - Demand for neodymium-iron-boron is anticipated to grow, particularly in the electric vehicle sector and emerging fields such as humanoid robots [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug industry chain and raw material drug performance are significant, with multiple sectors expected to see upward turning points in H2 [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to continue outperforming the market due to improving quarterly performance and easing policy disruptions [4] Summary by Sections Subsector Performance - **Chemical Pharmaceuticals**: Q1 2025 shows continued improvement, with expected annual revenue of 450.12 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.69 billion yuan, down 2.6% [3] - **Innovative Drugs**: The sector has achieved profitability in Q1 2025, with expected revenue of 46.22 billion yuan in 2024, up 23.7% year-on-year, and a reduced net loss of 0.83 billion yuan [3] - **Biological Products**: Blood products show good growth, while the vaccine sector faces challenges, with expected revenue of 126.41 billion yuan in 2024, down 21.8% year-on-year [3] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: Expected revenue of 356.19 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.6% year-on-year, with signs of a potential turning point [5] - **Medical Devices**: Anticipated revenue of 225.71 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.9% year-on-year, with performance expected to accelerate in H2 [5] - **Medical Services**: Expected revenue of 80.05 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.3% year-on-year, with a significant recovery trend in Q1 2025 [5] - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: Expected revenue of 925.27 billion yuan in 2024, up 0.3% year-on-year, facing pressure from policy changes [5] - **Raw Materials**: Expected revenue of 123.01 billion yuan in 2024, up 6.9% year-on-year, with a promising long-term growth outlook [5] - **Life Science Services**: Expected revenue of 35.46 billion yuan in 2024, down 0.7% year-on-year, with profit trends showing improvement [6] Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains low, with a premium rate narrowing, indicating investment value [4][17] - As of April 30, 2025, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index has decreased by 0.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.54 percentage points [10] Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the proportion of pharmaceutical heavy positions in public funds increased to 9.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [21] - The active public funds' pharmaceutical heavy positions rose to 9.6%, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points [21] Investment Trends - The medical health industry is expected to see a recovery in investment after two years of capital winter, with signs of a turning point emerging [37][44] - The demand for medical devices is anticipated to accelerate, supported by increased bidding activity [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.757 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 4.71% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 315 million yuan, down 37.90% year-on-year [3][5]. - The data center business showed steady growth in 2024, with IDC services revenue at 1.231 billion yuan, a decline of 4.50%, while data center products revenue increased by 30.32% to 1.921 billion yuan [3]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships with leading computing power manufacturers and secured significant service orders, indicating a strong order pipeline and customer expansion [4]. - The integration of "smart computing + energy storage" aims to create a collaborative ecosystem of "green electricity + AI + light charging and storage computing," enhancing operational efficiency through AI technology [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 729 million yuan, a significant recovery of 131% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach 1.41 yuan [5][6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.933 billion yuan, 12.526 billion yuan, and 15.429 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 28%, 26%, and 23% [5]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve gradually, with projections of 26.4% in 2025 and 27.1% in 2027 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - In the current market context, increasing the allocation of convertible bonds related to popular themes may be the key action for the portfolio to achieve excess returns. Although overseas tariff factors disrupt the domestic economic recovery process and the profit side of listed companies may not recover rapidly in the short term, after the end of the intensive performance disclosure period in May, the previous negative factors have been gradually priced in. The government has released liquidity to support the economy and the securities market. It is expected that the market will likely show characteristics of increasing risk appetite, and the valuation side will be the main support for the strengthening of the market [2][6]. - To benefit from the increase in the market valuation level, it is advisable to appropriately increase the allocation of convertible bonds related to themes. Although the profit side of some theme - related convertible bonds has not yet reached an inflection point, stock pricing often leans towards future long - term growth. The negative factors on the profit side of some targets have been fully priced in by the market in the early stage, and investors tend to give a higher valuation premium to stocks related to new productive forces. Therefore, under the current background, convertible bonds related to popular themes are more cost - effective in creating excess returns [2][9]. - By analyzing the excess return performance of the CSI 2000 and the Wind AA - rated and below index from 2020 to the present, it is found that when the market trading volume exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan, the CSI 2000 shows relatively obvious excess returns compared to the Wind All - A Index in the stock dimension, and the trend is more obvious in the convertible bond dimension. Convertible bonds related to popular themes are more characteristic of small - cap stocks and low - rated convertible bonds, and are more likely to create excess returns when the trading volume recovers [2][9]. - Relevant convertible bonds can be mined by combining annual reports and public research records. The real economy has been gradually transforming towards new productive forces in recent years. Listed companies will disclose new investment and transformation directions in their annual reports and conduct communication and research activities with the capital market after the disclosure of regular reports. Therefore, the 2024 annual reports and public research records since 2025 are important for mining relevant theme - related convertible bonds [2][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Wind Risk Preference Recovery, Theme - Related Convertible Bonds May Be the Key to Winning Excess Returns in the Future Market - The current market trading volume has gradually recovered since early April. After the end of the performance disclosure period, the previous negative factors have been priced in, and the government's liquidity release is expected to drive the market risk preference upwards, with the valuation side supporting the market [6][9]. - It is recommended to increase the allocation of theme - related convertible bonds. Some theme - related convertible bonds are more likely to create excess returns due to factors such as future growth expectations and market pricing [2][9]. - Popular themes such as robotics, computing power, Huawei Ascend, HarmonyOS, brain - computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion are analyzed, and relevant convertible bonds are recommended [13]. 3.2 Humanoid Robots - Multiple companies are involved in the humanoid robot field. For example, Keli Convertible Bond (Kedali) focuses on the R & D and production of harmonic reducers and joint modules; Haoneng Convertible Bond (Haoneng Co., Ltd.) is developing high - precision reducers; Lingyi Convertible Bond (Lingyizao) is expanding its business from component supply to assembly and aims to become a robot body assembly manufacturer [18][19][20]. 3.3 Computing Power - Many companies are actively involved in the computing power business. Zhongbei Convertible Bond (Zhongbei Communication) has completed the national business layout of intelligent computing clusters, with an operating computing power scale of over 15,000P and significant revenue growth [32]. 3.4 Huawei Ascend - Haohan Convertible Bond (Haohan Shendu) is exploring AI and large - model applications, and has completed the v1.1 version of the Haohan Morning Star large model, enhancing its capabilities and achieving API interface docking [35]. 3.5 HarmonyOS - CoreHi Convertible Bond (CoreHi Technology) has consolidated its leading position in the HarmonyOS ecosystem, with over 300 business opportunities for HarmonyOS - connected projects and 115 SKUs of products connected [38]. 3.6 Brain - Computer Interfaces - Rongtai Convertible Bond (Rongtai Health) has established a "Brain - Computer Interaction Joint Laboratory" with Shanghai Aoyi Information Technology Co., Ltd. to promote the application of brain - computer fusion technology and bionic manipulators in the intelligent health field [39]. 3.7 Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Guangda Convertible Bond (Guangda Special Materials) is developing and supplying materials related to controllable nuclear fusion, with batch - supply of relevant materials and significant orders [40].

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 05 月 08 日 模糊的滞胀预期下，美联储会否全年按兵不动？ ——美联储 FOMC 会议点评（2025.5） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 基于当前仍然稳健的经济和就业表现，以及未来可能出现的滞胀风险，美 联储年初至今连续第三次会议决定维持利率水平不变。当地时间 5 月 7 日下午， 美联储召开本年度第三次 FOMC 会议，在声明中指出"尽管净出口动荡对经 济数据造成影响"，但经济活动仍延续稳健扩张步伐，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上 补充阐述称美国国内最终购买（PDFP）一季度稳定增长 3%，与去年节奏相同； 此外声明认为经济前景的不确定性"进一步"提升，并评估认为"失业率和通 胀同步上行的风险加大"，这意味着美联储当前对美国政府关税政策影响下美 国经济在未来可能走向一定程度的滞胀存有担忧，而滞胀局面一旦出现，美联 储往往需要首先实施一定程度的紧缩，在成功控制通胀预期后才可转而实施宽 松操作。基于上述两方面原因，美联储本次会议连续第三次决定维持利率水平 不变，自年初以来未再降息。鲍威尔在发布会问答环节多次强调当前美联储"不 必着急"，"可以耐心等待"，或为暗示美联储降息的概率和幅度比市场 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 银发经济娱乐消费新风潮 团队成员 投资要点： 数字参与深化：银发经济推动消费市场多元发展 策 随着社会的发展与老龄化进程的加剧，老年群体的消费行为和消费市 场正在发生深刻的变化,50 岁以上的中老年人群体已经逐步融入数字化生 活，成为不可忽视的消费力量。根据中国互联网络信息中心（CNNIC）的 第 55 次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》，截至 2024 年 12 月，50 岁 及以上群体占比达到 34.1%，较上年同期增长 1.6 个百分点。 略 点 评 近年来，年轻人常用的 APP，也逐渐成为银发族群体日常使用的应用。 据电通创意的《2025 银发族趋势观察》，在银发人群中，快手、抖音和网 易新闻是使用时长最长的三大应用。同时，老年人群体也体现了强烈的参 与感，61%的银发人群会将自己喜欢的短视频分享给亲朋好友，涵盖的内 容包括养生、新闻时事等。这一趋势不仅推动了老年人群体的数字化转型， 也为相关企业在这一市场的布局提供了机会。老年人群体的互联网使用习 惯正在不断深入，而这一趋势势必将推动数字广告、社交电商、在线教育、 短视频等领域的蓬勃发展。 娱乐消费升级：银发经济驱动文娱产业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown significant price increases, with annual gains of +27.2% for London gold and +27.6% for Shanghai gold, indicating strong long-term investment value despite short-term fluctuations due to economic concerns [3][18] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to experience price stability in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance supporting upward price movements [4][36] - The lithium market is facing a weak supply-demand dynamic, with limited support for price recovery despite some short-term fluctuations [4][36] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly, supported by market uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with a long-term investment value remaining intact [3][18] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, with a focus on undervalued companies like Zhuhai Huajun and Yulong Shares [3] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand situation, with expectations of increased demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [4][36] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on companies like Western Mining and Jiangxi Copper [4] Lithium and New Energy Metals - The lithium market is characterized by oversupply, with limited price recovery potential despite some short-term demand spikes [4] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials, with a focus on companies like Jiangte Motor and Tianqi Lithium [4] Other Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand, while antimony prices are stabilizing after a period of weakness [4] - Recommended stocks in rare earths include China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth, while for antimony, focus on Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [4]

华福证券 Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 8 日 固 收 研 究 【华福固收】央行报表科普系列：如何 理解其他存款性公司资产负债表 投资要点： 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 研究助理： 黄紫仪 邮箱：hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 eR _ e lb aT Table_First e p yT tro p |ts r iF _ e lb aT Table_First|Table_ReportDate Table_First|Table_RelateReport 固 其他存款性公司包括存款货币公司和其他存款货币公司，其中，存款 货币公司包括国有行、股份行、城商行和农商行、信用社、外资行及 农发行，其他存款货币公司包括中资和在我国的外资企业集团财务公 司以及国开行、进出口行。 定 收 益 专 题 ...