Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250-300 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50%-81% [1] - Revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to be 4.1-4.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29%-36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%-19% [1] - The company continues to see growth in consumer battery sales, with an estimated sales volume exceeding 130 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a nearly 10% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - New technologies and products, such as steel-shell batteries and silicon anode batteries, are driving revenue growth [2] - The company is focusing on high-rate scenarios for dynamic storage batteries, with revenue expected to reach approximately 500 million yuan in Q3 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 10.198-10.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%-22%, and a net profit of 367-417 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37%-56% [1] - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 641 million yuan in 2025, 1.401 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.808 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 119%, and 29% respectively [3][4] Market Position - The company is strengthening partnerships with leading brands in the laptop and smartphone sectors, maintaining a strong market position [1] - The introduction of steel-shell batteries is expected to significantly enhance revenue, as they are being supplied to major global smartphone brands starting in H2 2025 [2] - The company is actively expanding into consumer-grade drones, AI wearable products, and smart cleaning appliances, contributing to rapid revenue growth [1] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.57 yuan in 2025, 1.24 yuan in 2026, and 1.60 yuan in 2027, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 40, 18, and 14 respectively [3][4] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 14.176 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 1.5%. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.6% and - 0.9% respectively. Most sectors ended in the red, with water conservancy facilities, affordable housing, and warehousing and logistics leading the decline. As of October 17, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 76BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the ten - year Treasury bond yield was 216BP. Two public REITs, Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT and CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT, announced their issuance results, with a total subscription amount exceeding 200 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs Index was 814.73 points, with a weekly decline of 1.5%. It performed worse than the China Securities All - Bond Index (+0.3%) but better than the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (-2.4%) and the CSI 300 Index (-2.2%). Year - to - date, the performance order of major indices was: CSI 300 (+14.7%) > China Securities Convertible Bond (+14.4%) > China Securities REITs (+3.2%) > China Securities All - Bond (+0.4%). In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 4.4% with a volatility of 7.2%. Its return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index [2][6][7]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover**: On October 17, the total market capitalization of REITs decreased to 217.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.39%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week [2][7]. - **Sector Performance**: Most REIT sectors ended in the red, with water conservancy facilities, affordable housing, and warehousing and logistics leading the decline. The top three weekly gainers were China Merchants Expressway REIT (+1.65%), Huatai - PineBridge Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical REIT (+0.99%), and Harvest China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT (+0.71%) [1][3][14]. - **Trading Activity**: New infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate of 2.3%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume share this week, accounting for 18.8% of the total REIT trading volume. The top three REITs with the largest net inflows of main funds were Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT (7.49 million yuan), CICC Yinli Consumption REIT (5.11 million yuan), and Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT (4.2 million yuan) [3][20][21]. Primary Market Issuance - As of October 19, 2025, there were 2 REIT products in the "accepted" stage, 1 in the "declared" stage, 1 in the "inquired" stage, 5 in the "feedback" stage, 7 in the "passed and awaiting listing" stage, and 12 first - issued products that had passed and been listed on the exchange [23]. - **Issuance Results**: On October 16, Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT announced that the confirmation ratios of valid subscription applications for public investors and offline investors were 0.2763% and 0.3120% respectively, corresponding to effective subscription multiples of 361.9 times and 320.5 times. The total subscription amount before ratio allocation was approximately 159.33 billion yuan. On the same day, the subscription confirmation ratio results of CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT were released. The total effective subscription amount before ratio allocation was approximately 44.434 billion yuan. The combined subscription amount of the two public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan [4][34]. Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Metrics**: REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. As of October 17, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.6%. From the stock - like perspective, valuation is judged by relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO. Different project types of REITs have different valuation levels and annualized dividend rates [25]. - **Comparison with Benchmarks**: As of October 17, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 76BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the ten - year Treasury bond yield was 216BP [1][28]. Industry News - Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT's issuance results showed strong investor interest, with a high subscription multiple. CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT, as the first successful public REIT project in Northeast China, set a new benchmark for the region to revitalize existing assets and activate the digital economy [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with major appliances under pressure due to high base effects from last year, while small appliances continue to show growth. The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to further boost sales in small appliances [1][12]. - The export value of home appliances in September saw a decline of 9.6%, with air conditioning exports particularly affected, while refrigerators and washing machines showed positive growth [3][40]. - The report highlights the resilience of the home appliance sector despite external challenges, with expectations for continued growth potential in overseas markets as companies expand their global presence [12][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform" [5]. 2. Market Performance - In September, retail sales of major appliances declined by approximately 20% due to high base effects, while small appliances like rice cookers and air fryers saw growth of 6.1% and 27.7% respectively [1][18]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival has been extended, allowing consumers more time to make purchases, which is expected to benefit sales [2][36]. 3. Export Performance - Home appliance exports fell by 9.6% in September, with air conditioning exports down 23.2%. However, washing machines and vacuum cleaners continued to grow by over 10% [3][40]. - The report notes that the actual overseas sales performance may be better than export figures suggest, as companies are diversifying their production and sales channels [40]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and TCL for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Roborock and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13].

- The report introduces the "SSE STAR Market Innovation Growth Strategy Select Index," which focuses on selecting 80 listed companies with strong technological innovation capabilities and good growth potential from various industries on the STAR Market[13][14] - The index incorporates traditional factors such as market capitalization and fundamentals, while also considering R&D capabilities and profitability[13][14] - The index innovatively integrates the SPDB's technology innovation evaluation system, which is based on three categories of indicators: "technological innovation strength, team innovation strength, and equity innovation strength"[14] - The median excess return of index-enhanced funds last week was 0.24%, and the median return of quantitative hedge funds was -0.06%[33] - Year-to-date, the median excess return of index-enhanced funds was 3.78%, and the median return of quantitative hedge funds was 0.68%[33] - The top-performing index-enhanced fund for the week was the "Shenwan Lingxin CSI 500 Index Enhanced A," with a weekly excess return of 3.20%[53] - The top-performing quantitative hedge fund for the week was the "ICBC Absolute Return A," with a weekly return of 1.17%[54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market rebounded from the bottom, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active [1][3][10][37]. - The economic data shows downward pressure, and deflation risks still exist. It is expected that the bond market will rebound in October. The 30 - 10 spread and the 20 - year China Development Bank bond spread are expected to compress [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, the export data in September was still strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom [1][10][37]. - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10][4]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and the upcoming release of Q3 economic data, it is expected that the bond market will rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread will compress [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically very low level. With the expected rebound of the bond market, the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance [13]. - Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.0%, local government bonds 67.3%, and others accounted for relatively small proportions [13]. - The 30-year variety has the highest proportion. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 year (inclusive) variety accounted for 39.9%, the highest [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 57.7 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, mainly including 40 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 17.7 billion yuan of local government bonds [20]. - By maturity, 50.4 billion yuan had a 20-year maturity, 6.1 billion yuan a 30-year maturity, and 1.3 billion yuan a 15-year maturity [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume [29]. - By variety, ultra-long Treasury bonds had a trading volume of 894.9 billion yuan, ultra-long local bonds 156.5 billion yuan, ultra-long policy financial bonds 6.1 billion yuan, and ultra-long government agency bonds 6.7 billion yuan [30]. - Compared with the week before last, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the trading volume and proportion of most varieties changing to varying degrees [30]. Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different maturities changed to varying degrees [37]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond active bond 25 ultra-long special Treasury bond 02 decreased by 1.6BP to 2.068%, and the yield of the 20-year China Development Bank bond active bond 21 China Development Bank 20 decreased by 1.5BP to 2.175% [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [4][46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 respectively [4][52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots), both increasing significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent market adjustments triggered by renewed trade tensions, with major A-share indices experiencing declines, particularly in the technology and media sectors, while traditional sectors like banking and coal showed resilience [4] - It highlights the ongoing shift in investment preferences from "old economy stocks" to "new economy stocks," emphasizing the performance divergence between "small growth stocks," "mid-growth stocks," and "old economy stocks" since 2025 [5][6] Market Performance Analysis - In the fourth quarter, a continuation of the pre-holiday style switch is anticipated, with a focus on deep value sectors such as real estate, liquor consumption, and brokerage firms [4] - The report notes that from 2000 to 2015, urbanization and consumption upgrades drove the performance of deep value sectors, benefiting financial and real estate stocks [6] - From 2016 to 2020, growth-driven assets outperformed, marking the rise of the mobile internet and new economy, while deep value sectors faced pressure [7] - Since 2021, technology-led sectors have surged, driven by domestic innovation and competition, particularly in semiconductors and new energy vehicles [8] Sector Rotation Patterns - Historical data indicates that deep value sectors typically see opportunities in the later stages of market cycles, following initial gains in early-cycle and growth-driven sectors [9] - The report outlines a pattern of sector rotation, where technology and growth sectors lead initially, followed by a shift to deep value stocks as market conditions evolve [9][10] Index Structural Changes - The report illustrates significant changes in index compositions over time, with a shift from traditional sectors like banking to new economy sectors such as consumer goods and technology [13][14] - The deep value index has seen a gradual decline in its share, while technology-led components have increased, reflecting the dynamic nature of market preferences [15] Investment Style Evolution - The report emphasizes the transition of investment styles, with deep value ETFs showing strong performance from 2017 to 2021, followed by a plateau, while technology and growth ETFs have gained momentum since 2025 [20][21] - It highlights the cyclical nature of investment styles, with a notable divergence in performance between deep value and growth sectors in recent years [21] International Comparisons - The report draws parallels between the evolution of consumption patterns in Japan and the current trends in China, illustrating how demographic shifts influence market dynamics [30][33] - It discusses the historical context of banking and real estate stocks in various countries, noting their transition from growth-driven to deep value classifications over time [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 1.5%. The average weekly price - change rates of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.6% and - 0.9% respectively. The weekly price - change comparison of major indices shows that China Securities All - Bond Index > China Securities REITs Index > CSI 300 Index > China Securities Convertible Bond Index. Most sectors closed down, with water conservancy facilities, affordable housing, and warehousing and logistics leading the decline [1]. - As of October 17, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 76 basis points higher than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 216 basis points [1]. - On October 16, the release results of Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT and CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT were announced. The total subscription amount of the two public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 814.73 points, with a weekly price - change rate of - 1.5%. It performed worse than the China Securities All - Bond Index (+0.3%) but better than the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (-2.4%) and the CSI 300 Index (-2.2%). Year - to - date, the price - change ranking of major indices is: CSI 300 (+14.7%) > China Securities Convertible Bond (+14.4%) > China Securities REITs (+3.2%) > China Securities All - Bond (+0.4%) [2][6]. - In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 4.4% with a volatility of 7.2%. Its return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index. Its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index. The total market value of REITs decreased to 217.4 billion yuan on October 17, a decrease of 2.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.39%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week [2][7]. - Most sectors closed down, with water conservancy facilities, affordable housing, and warehousing and logistics leading the decline. The top three REITs in terms of weekly gains were China Merchants Expressway REIT (+1.65%), Huatai - PineBridge Jiuzhitong Pharmaceutical REIT (+0.99%), and Harvest China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT (+0.71%) [3][14][17]. - Among different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 2.3%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume proportion this week, accounting for 18.8% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT (7.49 million yuan), CICC Yinli Consumption REIT (5.11 million yuan), and Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT (4.2 million yuan) [3][20][21]. Primary Market Issuance - From the beginning of the year to October 19, 2025, there were 2 REITs products in the "accepted" stage, 1 in the "declared" stage, 1 in the "in - query" stage, 5 in the "feedback - received" stage, 7 in the "approved and pending listing" stage, and 12 first - issued products that had been approved and listed on the exchange [23]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. As of October 17, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.6%. Different valuation indicators are used from the bond and equity perspectives. The relative net - value premium/discount rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs [25]. - The relative net - value premium/discount rate, P/FFO, IRR, and annualized dividend rate vary among different project types. For example, the relative net - value premium rate of affordable housing REITs was 39.5%, with a P/FFO of 34.7, an IRR of 3.6%, and an annualized dividend rate of 3.4% [26]. - Property - type REITs focus on dividend yield, while franchise - type REITs focus on internal rate of return. As of October 17, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 76 basis points higher than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 216 basis points [28]. Industry News - On October 16, Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT announced that the effective subscription application confirmation ratios of public investors and offline investors were 0.2763% and 0.3120% respectively, corresponding to effective subscription multiples of 361.9 times and 320.5 times. The total pre - ratio - allocation raised amount was 159.33 billion yuan, 100.5 times its planned raised amount [34]. - On the same day, CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT announced its subscription results. Before ratio allocation, the total effective subscription amount was approximately 44.434 billion yuan. It is the first successfully issued public REITs project in Northeast China [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales in Q3 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the Saucony brand experienced over 20% growth [2][3] - The management maintains the annual guidance, indicating stable growth prospects for the main brand and strong performance for the professional sports brand [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth, with Saucony and another brand, Maile, targeting specific consumer segments for faster growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The main brand's retail sales in Q3 grew low single digits year-on-year, with better performance in July and August compared to September [4] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with children's products showing stronger growth than adult products, particularly in functional categories like running and outdoor [4] Retail Discounts and Inventory - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, with inventory turnover ratio stable at 4.0-4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [5] Brand Growth - Saucony's sales grew over 20%, with strategic adjustments made to reduce low-priced products in e-commerce and tighten discounts [6] - The management expects Saucony's revenue growth to exceed 30% in 2025, with profits anticipated to grow over 10% [6] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 1.4 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [3][10] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [3][9]

Core Insights - The recent week (2025.10.13-2025.10.17) saw mixed performance in overseas markets, with South Korea leading gains and Hong Kong experiencing significant declines, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index which fell by 7.98%. The valuation divergence is evident, with the Korean Composite Index PE expanding by 2.7x while the Hang Seng Tech Index PE contracted by 1.7x [2][7] - In the A-share market, major broad indices collectively declined, with the CSI 500 down by 5.17%, CSI 1000 by 4.62%, and the National CSI 2000 by 4.69%. Only large-cap value stocks saw a slight increase of 2.08%, while growth styles experienced significant pullbacks. Overall, valuations contracted, with the CSI 2000 PE shrinking the most by 7.4x [2][28] - The essential consumer sector shows superior valuation attractiveness. The valuation metrics for food and beverage, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, indicate significant room for valuation recovery, with their 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year average valuation percentiles being notably low [2][50] Global Valuation Tracking - The global equity markets exhibited mixed results, with notable valuation changes. The U.S. markets saw slight PE expansions, while European markets showed divergence with Germany and the UK declining, and France increasing. The Indian SENSEX30 is highlighted as having lower valuation percentiles compared to the French CAC40, indicating a valuation advantage [7][8] A-share Broad Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, A-share broad indices' PE, PB, and PS metrics are positioned between the 88%-96% percentile range over the past year, while PCF percentiles remain low at 12%-30%. In the short to medium term, large-cap value stocks are relatively superior, while small-cap growth stocks, despite recent pullbacks, still exhibit low valuation attractiveness [29][30] Industry Valuation Tracking - The majority of primary industries experienced declines, with only coal (+4.17%), banking (+4.89%), food and beverage (+0.86%), and transportation (+0.37%) showing gains. The TMT sector faced the most significant pullbacks, with electronic and computer sectors seeing PE contractions of 5.05x and 5.33x respectively [50][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].