证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 汽车行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 智能驾驶加速推进，建议关注业绩期行情 月度产销：根据乘联会数据，1 月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为 180 万辆， 环比下降 20.4%，同比增长 0.3%。其中新能源零售量预计为 80 万左右，渗 透率约 44.4%。12 月全国乘用车市场零售 226.1 万辆，同比下降 14.0%，环 比增长 1.6%。2025 年累计零售 2,374.4 万辆，同比增长 3.8%。12 月全国乘 用车厂商批发 278.9 万辆，同比下降 9.0%，环比下降 7.0%；2025 年累计批 发 2,955.4 万辆，同比增长 8.8%。根据中汽协数据，12 月汽车产销分别完 成 329.6 万辆和 327.2 万辆，环比分别下降 6.7%和 4.6%，同比分别下降 2.1% 和 6.2%。2025 年，汽车产销分别完成 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别 增长 10.4%和 9.4%。2025 年 12 月，乘用车产销分别完成 287.9 万辆和 284.7 万辆，环比分别下降 8.4%和 6.3%，同比分别下降 4.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease slightly in 2024 while imports reach a historical high [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.52% [1][41]. - Key companies recommended include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 280 million tons in 2025 and 400 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei [2][50]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is driving the growth of phosphate rock consumption, with significant price increases observed in related products [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co., which has clear expansion plans, and Yuntianhua, a leading player in the phosphate chemical sector [5][7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][5]. - The market for glyphosate is projected to grow significantly, with production expected to increase from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 45.78% [4][5]. - Companies recommended in this sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are well-positioned to benefit from the changing market dynamics [5][7].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 房地产行业专题 优于大市 香港楼市复苏的复盘、展望与借鉴 长周期视角下 2025 年香港楼市复盘。2025 年香港私人住宅成交量+21%，为 2013 年以来的第二高水平，连续两年规模上涨；价格指数自 3 月确认底部后 连续三个季度企稳回升，较底部回升 4.8%，全年+3.3%；租金指数全年+4.3%， 已超过 2019 年达到历史新高。本轮复苏呈典型的"量在价先"，成交量处 于历史高分位，价格较 2021 年 9 月的历史高点仍有大约 25%的回撤，目前大 约在 2016 年三季度的位置水平。 比较 1997-2003 和 2021-2025 两轮下跌周期，前者属于"资产泡沫破裂+本 地金融危机"，为极端信用收缩情形，后者属于对"估值回调+宏观利率变 化"的反应。由于下跌原因的不同， 两者回撤时间、跌幅、冲击力等方面 均有差异，前者回撤周期 69 个月，跌幅达 66%，后者回撤周期 42 个月，跌 幅达 28%。 2021-2025 下跌周期显然更加温和，且目前复苏周期"政策+利率+需求+内地 红利"的共振幅度小于 2003 年，我们预计中期内香港房地产市场的复苏将 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 港股 2 月投资策略 优于大市 预计沃什的缩表交易不会持续，继续看好春季行情 3、消费领域：消费板块估值处于过去十年 1%分位数，市场预期过低且 后续有持续的改善空间，该板块的胜在稳健，而且走势相对独立，受国 际局势动荡影响较小； 4、能源：大宗商品的涨价将从贵金属、金属，逐步蔓延到能源、航运 等领域，也值得关注，尤其是能源资产价格尚处在低位，并且可以对冲 地缘局势的不确定性； 5、创新药：创新药业绩平稳，值得继续持有，后续一旦出现新 BD 项目 的释放，板块还有修复空间。 风险提示：地缘政治的不确定性，美国关税政策的不确定性，海外降息 幅度的不确定性，部分行业竞争格局的不确定性。 美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易。当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致 时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。我们认为 当下为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且 上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更 多信息要到 5 月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 今年 1 月份，美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，因此我们认为将美元指数的 反弹看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [6]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in urban areas exceeded 20% in November, with Waymo completing a new round of financing amounting to 160 billion yuan [1][17]. - The report highlights significant advancements in smart driving technologies, with L2 and above penetration rates for passenger vehicles reaching 38% in November, a year-on-year increase of 22 percentage points [3]. - Key companies recommended for investment include XPeng Motors, JAC Motors, and Geely for complete vehicles, while Pony.ai and WeRide are recommended for L4 technologies [4]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Waymo completed a new round of financing of 160 billion yuan [1][17]. - Pony.ai partnered with Aitbot to develop high-end Robotaxi services [1]. - WeRide launched its self-developed general simulation platform, WeRide GENESIS [1]. - HoloMatic delivered unmanned mining trucks in bulk [1]. - Hesai Technology led the market in 3D LiDAR shipments for lawnmowers [1]. - XPeng Motors' AD Pro received a major upgrade, becoming the first to mass-produce based on a single Journey® 6M chip [1]. High-Frequency Core Data Updates - The penetration rate of 8MP cameras in passenger vehicles reached 51% in November 2025, up 31 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - NVIDIA's driving chip market share increased to 54.3% [2]. - The penetration rate of LiDAR in passenger vehicles reached 16.6%, a year-on-year increase of 10 percentage points [2]. Smart Driving - The penetration rate of passenger vehicles with L2 and above functions reached 38% in November, with urban NOA at 20.6% [3]. - Sensor penetration rates for front-view cameras, forward millimeter-wave radar, and LiDAR were 69.0%, 58.4%, and 16.6%, respectively [3]. - The penetration rate of driving domain controllers reached 37.2%, a year-on-year increase of 19 percentage points [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for complete vehicles include XPeng Motors, JAC Motors, and Geely [4]. - For L4 technologies, recommended companies are Pony.ai and WeRide [4]. - Recommended component suppliers include SUTENG for data acquisition and Horizon Robotics for data processing [4].

以"反内卷"促"企业合理利润率" 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 目录 01 本轮内卷式竞争的起源与表现 02 本轮内卷式竞争的宏微观影响 03 企业合理利润率—宏观增长的微观动因 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 导言 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券分析师：董德志 02160933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø "内卷式"竞争的起源及表现 • 新范式下，需求偏弱与同质化扩张让存量市场竞争加速，企业内卷成为典型症候 Ø "内卷式"竞争的宏微观影响 • 一方面直接压低价格、挤压企业利润率，另一方面间接抑制消费与创新 Ø "内卷式"竞争如何破解？ • 短期来看，仍需依靠行政协调破除地方保护与行业壁垒， "反内卷"还要继续 • 长期来看，更应抓住"宏观问题"背后的"微观动因" ，以企业合理利润率为政策锚，助推政府、企业、居民、 资本市场进入良性循环，搭建宏微观桥梁 Ø 为什么要以利润率为锚？ • 合理利润率既防止"倾销"引发恶性内卷的底线，也约束"垄断" ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 电子行业周报 优于大市 AI 应用爆点频出，算力链重回主线 AI 应用爆点频出，海外算力链重回主线。过去一周上证下跌 0.44%，电子下 跌 2.51%，子行业中半导体下跌 0.90%，电子化学品下跌 5.87%。同期恒生科 技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 1.38%、上涨 0.51%、上涨 0.55%。过去 一周，由 Clawdbot 所引致的对于"AI 智能体正加速场景落地"的预期成为 市场热点，同时，国内互联网大厂陆续启动"红包大战"争抢大模型流量入 口。在此背景下，算力资源不单单成为军备竞赛的着力点，更是在各类 AI 应用试水过程中逐步成为"卖方型市场"，成为 AI 应用的核心预算约束， 算力链有望在强业绩支撑下重回科技投资主线，继续推荐：澜起科技、胜宏 科技、工业富联、蓝特光学、德明利、华勤技术、翱捷科技、芯原股份、寒 武纪、中芯国际、晶丰明源等。 海外原厂业绩保持强劲，建议关注存储产业链相关公司。存储周期持续上行， 原厂业绩保持强劲：AI 驱动企业级 SSD 量价齐升，闪迪 2QFY26 营收环比增 长 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1][11]. Core Insights - AI applications are rapidly emerging, with the computing power chain returning to the main investment focus. The market is witnessing a "seller's market" for computing resources, driven by the increasing demand for AI applications [1]. - The storage cycle is on an upward trend, with strong performance from overseas manufacturers. Companies like SanDisk and Samsung have reported significant revenue growth, driven by AI demand [2]. - Texas Instruments (TI) anticipates a median revenue increase in Q1 2026, supported by a continuous rise in order volume, particularly in the industrial and data center markets [3]. - Apple reported record quarterly performance, with revenues exceeding market expectations, particularly in the iPhone segment, which saw a 23% year-over-year increase [4]. - Global wafer expansion is entering an upward cycle, with ASML and LAM Research exceeding expectations in their quarterly performances, indicating a strong demand driven by AI [5]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Overview - The electronic industry experienced a decline of 2.51% in the past week, with semiconductors down 0.90% and electronic chemicals down 5.87% [12]. Semiconductor Sector - Companies such as Zhongxin International, Aojie Technology, and Demingli are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and growth potential in the semiconductor sector [11]. Storage Industry - The storage cycle is strengthening, with companies like Demingli and Jiangbolong showing significant revenue growth, driven by AI and data center demands [2]. Consumer Electronics - Apple’s revenue reached $143.76 billion in Q4 2025, with a 16% year-over-year increase, driven by strong iPhone sales and services [4]. Equipment and Materials - ASML and LAM Research reported strong quarterly results, indicating a robust demand for advanced logic and storage equipment, suggesting a positive outlook for the equipment sector [5].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [5][40]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a positive trend, with a 0.32% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (0.08%) and the ChiNext Index (-0.09%) during the week of January 26 to January 30 [1][11]. - Key highlights include the popularity of the AI project Clawdbot, the release of the DeepSeek-OCR2 document recognition model, and the success of new products from Pop Mart [2][4][17]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications and gaming IPs, suggesting a focus on AI marketing and gaming sectors for investment opportunities [4][36]. Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 9th in terms of performance among all sectors during the week, with notable gainers including Tiandi Online (51%), Hengdian Film (32%), and InSai Group (28%) [11][12]. - Conversely, companies like Giant Network and Baida Qiancheng experienced significant declines [11][12]. Key Data Tracking - The box office for the week was 257 million yuan, with top films including "Zootopia 2" (41 million yuan, 16.0% market share) and "Water Pipe" (63 million yuan, 13.8% market share) [3][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games by revenue in December 2025 were Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival," Lemon Micro's "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and Point Interactive's "Kingshot" [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI applications and the gaming sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly in AI marketing and gaming products that leverage AI technology [4][36]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Giant Network, G-bits, and K-Young Network, among others [4][36].