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恒玄科技(688608):平台型SoC芯片龙头,AI眼镜再探可穿戴市场新机遇
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-24 15:13
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading platform-type SoC chip manufacturer, exploring new opportunities in AI glasses and wearable technology [1]. - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to reach historical highs in 2024, indicating strong growth momentum [1]. - The shift towards high-margin smart Bluetooth audio chips and the expansion into smartwatch and AI glasses markets are key growth drivers [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, specializes in low-power wireless SoC chips, with applications in AIoT scenarios, including smart wearables and smart home devices [12]. - The product lineup includes various smart audio chips, with significant partnerships with major brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and Huawei [12]. Financial Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 3,263 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460.47 million yuan, up 272.47% [1][20]. - The revenue structure is diversifying, with significant growth in the smartwatch segment, which is expected to contribute 1,045 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 116% increase year-on-year [22]. TWS Market - The TWS earphone market is experiencing a new growth phase driven by AI capabilities, enhancing user experience with features like real-time translation and smart noise cancellation [32]. - The company maintains a leading position in the TWS SoC market, with a 16.07% share of the main control chips in TWS products [49]. Smartwatch and Wearable Devices - The global wearable wristband market is projected to grow, with the company actively entering the smartwatch sector, launching the BES2800 chip in 2024 [58]. - The company’s smart wearable chips are expected to see strong growth, with the BES2800 chip already integrated into flagship products like OPPO Watch X2 [59]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 48.40 billion yuan in 2025, 64.72 billion yuan in 2026, and 79.80 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 9.3 billion yuan, 13.2 billion yuan, and 17.4 billion yuan [1]. - The current P/E ratios are 49, 35, and 26 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which are slightly below the industry average, indicating potential for valuation appreciation [1].
权益ETF系列:震荡调整,关注医药、汽车及红利板块的相对机会
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-24 11:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on relative opportunities in the pharmaceutical, automotive, and dividend sectors [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a market outlook of "volatile adjustment," suggesting investors pay attention to the relative performance of the pharmaceutical, automotive, and dividend sectors [20][21]. - The A-share market is expected to experience a "V-shaped" trend, with initial gains followed by adjustments, particularly around mid-May [20]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors have strong capital recognition, while the dividend sector remains a relatively stable option during market fluctuations [20][21]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (May 19-23, 2025) - The top three broad indices were the Dividend Index (0.40%), Shenzhen Dividend (0.31%), and CSI Dividend (0.15%), while the bottom three were Northbound 50 (-3.68%), CSI 2000 (-1.52%), and Sci-Tech 50 (-1.47%) [10][12]. - The style indices showed that large-cap value (0.48%) and cyclical (0.15%) performed well, while small-cap (-1.53%) and growth (-1.50%) lagged [13][15]. - The top-performing Shenwan first-level industry indices were pharmaceutical biology (1.78%), comprehensive (1.41%), and non-ferrous metals (1.26%), with computer (-3.02%) and machinery equipment (-2.48%) at the bottom [16][18]. A-share Market Outlook (May 26-30, 2025) - The report anticipates continued volatility, with a focus on the pharmaceutical, automotive, and dividend sectors for potential relative gains [20]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to absolute return investments, while relative return opportunities in the mentioned sectors are highlighted [20][21]. - Gold stocks are also noted for potential interest due to recent price rebounds [21]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a balanced defensive ETF allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio during the anticipated market adjustments [20].
重卡行业4月跟踪月报:内销同比转正,看好内销景气度持续上行-20250524
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-24 08:03
证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 2025年5月24日 重卡行业4月跟踪月报: 内销同比转正,看好内销景气度持续上行 证券分析师 :黄细里 执业证书编号:S0600520010001 联系邮箱:huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话:021-60199793 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 数据总览 | | 25M1 | 25M2 | 25M3 | 25M4 | 25Q1 | 2024 | 2025E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 批发销量/万辆 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 26.4 | 90.2 | 101.0 | | Yoy | -25.5% | 36.1% | -3.7% | 6.5% | -3.0% | -1.0% | 12.0% | | 环比 | -14.3% | 12.7% | 37.0% | -21.4% | 21.1% | | | | 终端销量/万辆 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 15.4 | 60.3 | 70.0 | | Yoy | -0.5% ...
重卡行业4月跟踪月报:内销同比转正,看好内销景气度持续上行
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-24 00:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [67]. Core Viewpoints - April sales data for heavy trucks met expectations, with wholesale, terminal, and export volumes aligning with forecasts [5][8][20]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in domestic sales, projecting approximately 60,000 units in May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% [5][6]. - The heavy truck market is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in new energy vehicles, which saw sales of 16,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 243% [8][32]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - April wholesale volume reached 88,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 21.4% [5][20]. - Terminal sales for April were 69,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [5][20]. - Export sales in April totaled 26,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.2% [5][20]. - The total industry inventory decreased by 6,700 units in April, with the current total inventory at 150,000 units, indicating a reasonable inventory level [5][21]. Market Structure - In April, the market share for terminal sales among major manufacturers was as follows: Jiefang 19.2%, Dongfeng 22.5%, Heavy Truck 17.3%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.5%, and Foton 12.2% [7][42]. - For exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 14.4%, Dongfeng 8.7%, Heavy Truck 46.8%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 14.4%, and Foton 11.0% [7][44]. - The report highlights a significant increase in Foton's market share in both terminal and export segments compared to the previous year [7][44]. Engine Market - In April, the market share for engines was led by Weichai at 20.2%, followed by Cummins at 17.6% and Xichai at 13.5% [9][52]. - Weichai's terminal配套量 was 14,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 38.5% [9][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A/H and Weichai Power, emphasizing the performance potential of FAW Jiefang and Foton Motors due to expected earnings improvements [9][62].
迪威尔(688377):油气设备专用件领先供应商,有望受益深海+非常规油气开采
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-24 00:20
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company has over 20 years of experience in the oil and gas industry and has entered the supply chain of global oil service leaders, establishing itself as a high-tech enterprise specializing in the research, production, and sales of oil and gas drilling equipment components [2][15]. - The oil service industry is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure by oil and gas companies, particularly in deep-sea and unconventional oil and gas sectors, which are seen as long-term trends [3][50]. - The company currently has a low market share, indicating significant growth potential, especially as it aims to increase its market presence in deep-sea and fracturing equipment [4][67]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, has developed a range of specialized components for oil and gas production systems, blowout preventers, and unconventional oil and gas extraction [15][20]. - The company has faced revenue fluctuations, with a projected revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 40% year-on-year, primarily due to external factors affecting export orders [2][28]. Industry Outlook - The global deep-sea oil and gas equipment market is projected to grow from $18.4 billion in 2023 to $26.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.1% [4]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for deep-sea oil and gas extraction technologies, supported by government policies promoting deep-sea technology development [57][62]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 140 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 260 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 18, and 14 [10]. - The company's revenue is anticipated to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the release of scale effects and the ongoing domestic development of unconventional oil and gas [2][10]. Market Position - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with major global oil service companies, with its top five customers accounting for over 70% of annual sales [23][24]. - The company aims to increase its market share in deep-sea equipment to 3%, translating to potential revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, and in domestic fracturing equipment to 40%, corresponding to 680 million yuan in revenue [4][67].
工程机械海外产能布局专题
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-24 00:20
证券研究报告·行业研究·机械设备 工程机械海外产能布局专题 海外产能完善降低关税风险,"一带一路"打造核心朋友圈 首席证券分析师:周尔双 执业证书编号:S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025 年 5 月 23 日 核心观点 2 ◼ 对美敞口小,关税影响整体可控。 2024年我国工程机械产品进出口总额555.3亿美元,同比+8.5%。其中,出口 528.8亿美元,同比+8.8%,进口26.5亿美元,同比+2.5%。分地区来看,2024年中国对"一带一路"地区工程机 械出口额达333.0亿美元,同比+14%,贡献绝大部分增量。美国作为全球工程机械最大市场,出口金额持续下 滑,2024年中国对美工程机械出口40.6亿美元,同比-5%,占中国工程机械总出口金额比重由2020年的11.6%持 续下滑至2024年的7.7%,对美敞口持续降低。利润率低于平均,主机厂对美利润敞口更低。由于中国主机厂在 美国主要面向中小型土方机械、高机等利润率较低的市场,叠加此前25%关税,毛利率、净利率与其他海外地 区相比都处于较低水平。根据我们测算,三一重工/徐工 ...
“三问物业行业”系列报告之三:不谋长远者,无以图当下
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-23 14:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate service industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The long-term growth of property companies relies on high-quality third-party expansion, stable gross margins, and community value-added services [60] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards focusing on core property service revenue, with a notable increase in its share of total income [10][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of managing accounts receivable and cash flow to mitigate operational risks [61] Summary by Sections 1. Sources of Long-term Growth for Property Companies - High-quality third-party expansion is essential for sustainable growth, with a significant increase in the share of core property service revenue among sample companies [10][16] - Profitability stabilization is more critical than mere scale growth, with some companies showing signs of gross margin recovery after years of decline [20][25] - Community value-added services, while not a second growth engine, can contribute to stable revenue and profit growth during low-growth phases [57] 2. Operational Risks Facing Property Companies - The accumulation of accounts receivable and the aging of these receivables pose significant risks to cash flow, with many companies experiencing faster growth in receivables than in revenue [61][63] - The report highlights the need for property companies to control the rapid growth of receivables to maintain financial health [61] 3. Valuation Recovery Potential in the Industry - The valuation of property companies is influenced by growth potential, profitability quality, and shareholder return policies, with a focus on maintaining a dividend payout [3][24] - Companies that can achieve stable mid-term growth and manage operational risks effectively are likely to see improved valuations [4][19] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that demonstrate stable growth, effective risk management, and a commitment to high dividends, highlighting specific companies such as China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and China Merchants Jinling [4][19]
北证50高位回调,证监会:稳妥实施科创板第五套上市标准
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-23 02:55
证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250522 北证 50 高位回调,证监会:稳妥实施科创板 第五套上市标准 ◼ 今日新股:暂无。 风险提示:个股业绩波动风险,行业竞争加剧风险,政策落地不及预期风 险,市场流动性分化风险,外部环境不确定性等。 2025 年 05 月 22 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书:S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书:S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书:S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书:S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书:S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国持续深化国际合作,反对单边 主义》 2025-05-21 《央行降息:一年期、五年期 LPR 均 下调 10 个基点》 2025-05-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Ta ...
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250523
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-23 02:34
Macro Strategy - The central bank's balance sheet is expected to continue shrinking due to the recent reserve requirement ratio cut, which may lead to further "balance sheet reduction" [1][9] - The U.S. CPI for April showed an unexpected decline, but concerns about fluctuating tariffs and inflation remain, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.477% [1][11] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have boosted market confidence, leading to significant increases in U.S. stock markets and a drop in gold prices by 3.65% [1][11] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the common characteristics of city investment platforms eligible to issue technology innovation bonds, highlighting that platforms with AAA ratings and located in core provincial cities are more likely to succeed in this area [2][14] - The participation of city investment entities in the technology bond market is limited due to their focus on public service and infrastructure projects, which are less aligned with technology innovation [2][15] Industry Analysis - The beer industry is currently experiencing a phase where leading brands are well-positioned for growth, with recommendations to increase allocations in quality leaders like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer [3][16] - The report indicates that while beer consumption is under pressure, the resilience of leading brands and the potential for recovery in the restaurant and retail sectors could provide positive support for the beer market [3][17] Company Recommendations - Sanofi's recent licensing agreement with Pfizer for SSGJ-707 marks a significant milestone, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential future payments totaling up to $4.8 billion [4][18] - Naixue's Tea is focusing on a green health strategy and optimizing its store operations, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 expected to grow steadily [5][20] - Anji Food is shifting its strategy from channel-driven to product-driven, with new product launches aimed at enhancing differentiation and market presence [6][21]
贵州茅台(600519):理性务实,保持定力
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-22 15:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [1] Core Views - The company emphasizes its commitment to quality and cultural roots, believing that these will not waver [7] - Guizhou Moutai aims to transition from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle, focusing on creating a comprehensive ecosystem for mutual benefits among stakeholders [7] - The company is confident in its ability to navigate the current liquor industry cycle, which is characterized by a shift towards rational consumption and market adjustments [7] - Guizhou Moutai plans to maintain a stable pricing structure for its products, adhering to market principles [7] - The company has initiated a share buyback plan and established a three-year dividend policy to enhance market value [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 150,560 million RMB in 2023 to 227,000 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.75% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 74,734 million RMB in 2023 to 110,276 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 9.25% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 59.49 RMB in 2023 to 87.79 RMB in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26.56 in 2023 to 18.00 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1] Market Data - The closing price of Guizhou Moutai is 1,580.00 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,984,792.52 million RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 7.68 and a net asset value per share of 205.67 RMB [5][6]