证券研究报告 原油周报：受地缘因素影响，国际油价高位震荡 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月25日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.0/61.8美元/桶，较上周分别-0.5/-0.8美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比 +217/+133/+84/-46万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+1万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周465台，环比-8台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周186部，环比-7部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1649万桶/天，环比+9万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为90.7%，环比+0.5pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存仍处高位，煤价触底震荡运行 2025 年 05 月 25 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（5 月 19 日至 5 月 23 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 611 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 175.80 万吨，环比上周增加 0.11 万吨，增幅 0.07%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有上升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 180.57 万吨，环比上周减少 1.21 万吨，降幅 0.67%；日均锚地船舶共 62 艘，环比上周增加 15 艘，增幅 32.21%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3210.60 万吨，环比上周减少 42.70 万吨，降幅 1.31%。港口本周日均调出量环比略有减少，库存绝 对值减少，同比仍处高位，煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响以及汛期水电稳增 影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随逐步进入迎峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进 一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core Views - The US Treasury yield curve shows a "bear steepening" trend, with the long - end in a range of 4 - 4.5% and the short - end (2 - year) likely to decline. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025 and slow down the balance - sheet reduction [1] - In the domestic equity market, the large - cap dividend stocks have seen a pull - back, and the bank - related targets are still recommended for configuration. There are high - quality non - issued pan - technology targets, and investors are advised to buy at low points [1] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for premium - to - parity ratio repair next week are Hailiang Convertible Bond, Hexing Convertible Bond, etc. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Overall Declined, Most Industries Rose - From May 19th to May 23rd, the equity market declined overall, with the average daily trading volume in the two markets decreasing by about 74.483 billion yuan to 1138.753 billion yuan, a week - on - week decline of 6.14% [6][9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries rose, with beauty care, non - bank finance, etc. leading the gains, and computer, national defense and military industry, etc. leading the losses [14] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Overall Declined, Industry Overall Declined - From May 19th to May 23rd, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.11%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries rose, with media, bank, etc. leading the gains, and communication, social services, etc. leading the losses [16] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.517 billion yuan, a significant increase of 13.435 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 26.83% [16] - About 34.17% of the convertible bond individual bonds rose, and about 24.11% of them had a gain in the range of 0 - 1% [16] 1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From May 19th to May 23rd, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the convertible bond market had a better trading sentiment overall [33] - On different trading days, the trading sentiment of the stock and bond markets varied. For example, on Monday and Tuesday, the stock market had better trading sentiment, while on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment [35] 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The long - end of the US Treasury yield is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation, and the short - end is likely to decline. The duration strategy is recommended to be short [1][37][38] - In the domestic market, continue to recommend the configuration of bank - related targets and the purchase of non - issued pan - technology targets at low points [1][38] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for premium - to - parity ratio repair next week are recommended [1][39]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：行业协同挺价，长丝价格上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月25日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2699元/吨，环比+32元/吨（环比+1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1078元/吨，环比-66元/吨（环比-6%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为7050/7300/8200元/吨，环比分别+243/+314/+214元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为88/-12/-12元/吨，环比分别+172/+219/+153元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 11.3/18.4/25.4天，环比分别+2.4/+1.6/+1.4天，长丝开工率为90.2%，环比-1.1pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为63.4%，环比+0.0pct，织 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in the prices of coking coal and coke, with coking coal averaging 1141 yuan/ton and coke at 1240 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 18 yuan and 34 yuan respectively [10][40]. - The polyurethane sector shows mixed performance, with pure MDI prices increasing by 260 yuan/ton to 17880 yuan/ton, while polymer MDI prices decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 16230 yuan/ton [2][17]. - The oil, coal, and gas olefin sector reported an increase in ethylene prices to 5617 yuan/ton, while propylene prices decreased slightly to 5768 yuan/ton [10][26]. - The coal chemical sector experienced a drop in average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid, with synthetic ammonia averaging 2334 yuan/ton, down by 59 yuan [10][45]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The basic chemical index has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 1.2% over the past week [8]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 17880, 16230, and 12118 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding gross profits of 4438, 3859, and 1103 yuan/ton [2][19]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Gas Olefin Sector - Ethane and propane prices are reported at 1382 and 4302 yuan/ton, with ethylene averaging 5617 yuan/ton [10][34]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2334, 1875, 4025, and 2431 yuan/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia showing a decrease of 59 yuan [10][45].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250525 新一轮东升西落交易可能很快来临 2025 年 05 月 25 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 2025 年"东升西落"交易的起点是美元见顶 2025 年初"东升西落"交易中，市场对行情起点存在认知偏差。投资者过 多聚焦于 DeepSeek 打破美国科技例外论、进而引发中国科技资产重估的 叙事，但是忽略了美元见顶这一核心触发因素。事实上，本轮行情始于 1 月 14 日，沪指单日走出一根大阳线，对应美元指数在 1 月 13 日见顶回落， 彼时 DeepSeek 也并未大面积发酵。 美元周期是"东升西落"交易的关键。我们观察到，今年春季躁动行情的 起点（1 月 14 日）和终点（3 月 18 日）分别对应美元指数阶段性的高点和 低点。美元周期的运动影响了中国资产的表现，而 DeepSeek 大模型出圈、 阿里资本开支指引超预期，以及 A&H 市场估值偏低等因素更多是行情演 绎的催化剂，关键的时点仍然需要观察美元周期。 ◼ 美元和美债出现罕见背离，美元更真实地反映美元周期波动 4 月以来，美元和美债利率的走势出现罕见的背离，这一矛盾本质上源于 美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading platform-type SoC chip manufacturer, exploring new opportunities in the AI glasses and wearable markets [1]. - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to reach historical highs in 2024, indicating strong growth momentum [1]. - The shift towards high-margin smart Bluetooth audio chips and the expansion into smartwatches and glasses markets are key drivers for future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, specializes in low-power wireless SoC chips, with applications in AIoT scenarios, including smart wearables and home devices [12]. - The product lineup includes various generations of smart audio chips, with significant partnerships with major brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and Huawei [12]. Financial Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 3,263 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460.47 million yuan, up 272.47% [1][20]. - The revenue structure is diversifying, with significant growth in the smartwatch segment, which is expected to contribute 1,045 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 116% increase year-on-year [22]. TWS Market - The TWS earphone market is experiencing a new growth phase driven by AI capabilities, enhancing user experience with features like real-time translation and intelligent noise cancellation [32][33]. - The company is well-positioned to challenge Qualcomm's ecosystem by offering competitive products across various price segments, with a market share of 16.07% in TWS chip applications [49]. Smartwatch and Wearable Devices - The global wearable wristband market is projected to grow, with the company focusing on smartwatches as a new growth engine, leveraging its advanced chip technology [58]. - The BES2800 chip, launched in 2024, integrates multiple functionalities and is expected to drive significant growth in the smartwatch market [59]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 48.40 billion yuan in 2025, 64.72 billion yuan in 2026, and 79.80 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 9.3 billion yuan, 13.2 billion yuan, and 17.4 billion yuan [1]. - The current P/E ratios are 49, 35, and 26 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which are slightly below the industry average, indicating potential for valuation appreciation [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading platform-type SoC chip manufacturer, exploring new opportunities in AI glasses and wearable technology [1]. - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to reach historical highs in 2024, indicating strong growth momentum [1]. - The shift towards high-margin smart Bluetooth audio chips and the expansion into smartwatch and AI glasses markets are key growth drivers [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, specializes in low-power wireless SoC chips, with applications in AIoT scenarios, including smart wearables and smart home devices [12]. - The product lineup includes various smart audio chips, with significant partnerships with major brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and Huawei [12]. Financial Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 3,263 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460.47 million yuan, up 272.47% [1][20]. - The revenue structure is diversifying, with significant growth in the smartwatch segment, which is expected to contribute 1,045 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 116% increase year-on-year [22]. TWS Market - The TWS earphone market is experiencing a new growth phase driven by AI capabilities, enhancing user experience with features like real-time translation and smart noise cancellation [32]. - The company maintains a leading position in the TWS SoC market, with a 16.07% share of the main control chips in TWS products [49]. Smartwatch and Wearable Devices - The global wearable wristband market is projected to grow, with the company actively entering the smartwatch sector, launching the BES2800 chip in 2024 [58]. - The company’s smart wearable chips are expected to see strong growth, with the BES2800 chip already integrated into flagship products like OPPO Watch X2 [59]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 48.40 billion yuan in 2025, 64.72 billion yuan in 2026, and 79.80 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 9.3 billion yuan, 13.2 billion yuan, and 17.4 billion yuan [1]. - The current P/E ratios are 49, 35, and 26 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which are slightly below the industry average, indicating potential for valuation appreciation [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on relative opportunities in the pharmaceutical, automotive, and dividend sectors [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a market outlook of "volatile adjustment," suggesting investors pay attention to the relative performance of the pharmaceutical, automotive, and dividend sectors [20][21]. - The A-share market is expected to experience a "V-shaped" trend, with initial gains followed by adjustments, particularly around mid-May [20]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors have strong capital recognition, while the dividend sector remains a relatively stable option during market fluctuations [20][21]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (May 19-23, 2025) - The top three broad indices were the Dividend Index (0.40%), Shenzhen Dividend (0.31%), and CSI Dividend (0.15%), while the bottom three were Northbound 50 (-3.68%), CSI 2000 (-1.52%), and Sci-Tech 50 (-1.47%) [10][12]. - The style indices showed that large-cap value (0.48%) and cyclical (0.15%) performed well, while small-cap (-1.53%) and growth (-1.50%) lagged [13][15]. - The top-performing Shenwan first-level industry indices were pharmaceutical biology (1.78%), comprehensive (1.41%), and non-ferrous metals (1.26%), with computer (-3.02%) and machinery equipment (-2.48%) at the bottom [16][18]. A-share Market Outlook (May 26-30, 2025) - The report anticipates continued volatility, with a focus on the pharmaceutical, automotive, and dividend sectors for potential relative gains [20]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to absolute return investments, while relative return opportunities in the mentioned sectors are highlighted [20][21]. - Gold stocks are also noted for potential interest due to recent price rebounds [21]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a balanced defensive ETF allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio during the anticipated market adjustments [20].

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 2025年5月24日 重卡行业4月跟踪月报： 内销同比转正，看好内销景气度持续上行 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 数据总览 | | 25M1 | 25M2 | 25M3 | 25M4 | 25Q1 | 2024 | 2025E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 批发销量/万辆 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 26.4 | 90.2 | 101.0 | | Yoy | -25.5% | 36.1% | -3.7% | 6.5% | -3.0% | -1.0% | 12.0% | | 环比 | -14.3% | 12.7% | 37.0% | -21.4% | 21.1% | | | | 终端销量/万辆 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 15.4 | 60.3 | 70.0 | | Yoy | -0.5% ...