Macro Overview - The financial data for April 2025 indicates a clear trend of loose monetary policy, with M2 growth rebounding to 8% and new social financing increasing by 1.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan [2][4] - The central bank's intention to maintain ample financial liquidity is evident, although the evidence for the establishment of a wide credit chain is still lacking [3][4] Technology Sector - The technology growth sector is expected to remain active, driven by policy support and industrial upgrades, particularly in AI computing power, robotics, and semiconductors, which are seen as long-term growth areas [8] - The market is anticipated to experience a volatile upward trend from mid-May to mid-June, with structural opportunities emerging despite potential external uncertainties [8] Steel Industry - The steel sector is undergoing a transformation with a focus on high-quality development, as demand shifts from real estate to high-end manufacturing, supported by government policies [10][13] - The domestic steel production is showing signs of recovery, with crude steel output increasing by 0.60% year-on-year, and the demand for high-end steel products is expected to improve marginally [11][12][13] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is currently at a low point, with revenue and profit pressures, but there are structural opportunities to be seized, particularly in expanding domestic demand and new material production [16][18] - The basic chemical industry is viewed as having long-term investment value due to its low valuation compared to historical averages, with specific focus areas including civil explosives, refrigerants, and modified plastics [18] Media and AI - The domestic AI industry is rapidly advancing, with local open-source models expected to overcome computational and chip limitations, enhancing the competitive edge of leading internet companies [21][24] - The film industry is experiencing a downturn, with April box office revenues down 46.49% year-on-year, indicating a need for high-quality content to drive market recovery [21] Company-Specific Insights - Benxi Steel is recognized for its leading position in the automotive steel sector, with significant production capabilities and a focus on innovation and quality [26][29] - The company is leveraging 5G and industrial internet technologies to enhance operational efficiency and automation, indicating a strong commitment to digital transformation [28]

Investment Strategy - The urban renewal action plan outlines eight main tasks aimed at improving urban infrastructure and housing quality, with a focus on high-quality supply rather than extensive investment[2] - Key investment areas include the renovation of existing buildings, upgrading old residential communities, and enhancing urban infrastructure, particularly underground pipeline systems[6][7] Financial Projections - Historical spending on dangerous housing renovations peaked at 53.6 billion CNY annually during the 2015-2019 period, decreasing to 9.3 billion CNY by 2022[8][10] - Current estimates suggest that annual investment in dangerous housing renovations may be below 50 billion CNY[8] Funding Sources - The action plan specifies diverse funding sources, including budgetary investments, long-term special bonds, local government bonds, and various financial institution loans[11] - The primary funding source is expected to be government bonds, with some funds already allocated to urban renewal projects this year[11] Economic Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, misinterpretation of policy implications, and unexpected declines in the real estate market[19]

- The report highlights the performance of index-enhanced funds, with the CSI 500 index-enhanced funds showing the highest weekly excess return median of 0.16%, followed by CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds at 0.12%, and CSI 300 index-enhanced funds at -0.04%[2][3][4] - Other index-enhanced funds had a weekly return median of 0.24%, with the best weekly performance reaching 4.24% and the worst at -3.33%[3][6] - Absolute return (hedge) funds had a weekly return median of 0.09%, with the best weekly performance at 0.63% and the worst at -0.34%[6][7] - Active quantitative funds showed a weekly return median of 1.90%, with the best weekly performance at 7.27% and the worst at -3.19%[6][7] - Multi-factor funds demonstrated a weekly return median of 2.20%, with the best weekly performance at 2.95% and the worst at 0.57%[19][22] - Big data-driven active investment funds had a weekly return median of 1.91%, with the best weekly performance at 4.18% and the worst at -1.61%[20][22] - Sector rotation funds had a weekly return median of 1.30%, with the best weekly performance at 4.37% and the worst at -1.55%[18] - Funds extracting performance fees had a weekly return median of 0.79%, with the best weekly performance at 3.66% and the worst at -4.41%[15][17] - Thematic funds focused on private placements had a weekly return median of 0.70%, with the best weekly performance at 3.65% and the worst at -2.98%[14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading internet companies in the AI sector, indicating a positive investment outlook for companies like Tencent and Alibaba [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the film industry, with April box office revenues at 1.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.49% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.77% [4][16]. - The gaming market continues to grow, with March 2025 sales revenue at 26.692 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.99% despite a month-on-month decline of 4.45% [4][49]. - The advertising market saw a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year in March 2025, with notable growth in categories like entertainment and personal care [4][5]. - The launch of GPT-4.1 has significantly enhanced programming capabilities, indicating a rapid advancement in AI technology [4][5]. Market Overview - The media industry index fell by 2.23% in April 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.70% [6][8]. - The overall media sector is experiencing a downturn, with various sub-sectors like film and television broadcasting showing significant declines [7][8]. Sub-industry Data Tracking Film Industry - The film market is cooling down, with a notable lack of blockbuster films leading to a decline in overall box office performance [4][16]. - "Nezha 2" continues to show a long-tail effect, contributing 210 million yuan to the box office, accounting for approximately 19.8% of total revenues [4][16]. Gaming Industry - The gaming market remains robust, with mobile games generating 19.814 billion yuan in March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.88% [4][49]. - Client games also showed growth, with a market size of 5.589 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.09% [4][49]. Advertising Industry - The advertising market is undergoing adjustments, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in March 2025, particularly in entertainment and personal care sectors [4][5]. AI Industry - The rapid development of AI technology is highlighted, with the introduction of new models like GPT-4.1, which enhances programming capabilities significantly [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading internet companies that are embracing AI, such as Tencent and Alibaba, which are expected to see a revaluation of their value due to advancements in AI technology [4][5]. - In the film sector, companies like Wanda Film and Huayi Brothers are suggested for their potential in leveraging high-value IPs [4][5].

Key Insights - The report highlights the effective outcomes of the recent China-US trade talks, with a focus on the potential benefits for the optical communication and IoT sectors due to reduced tariffs [12][13] - The easing of tariff pressures is expected to restore confidence in the consumer electronics sector, particularly benefiting companies in the Apple supply chain and leading passive component manufacturers [15][17] - The construction machinery sector shows a mixed performance, with domestic excavator sales growth slowing in April, but overall positive trends in exports and improving operational quality among leading manufacturers [19][22] Macro Insights - The US CPI data for April indicates a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with core CPI at 2.8%, suggesting that inflationary pressures are stabilizing [2][3] - The report anticipates that inflation will rise in the latter half of the year, potentially reaching 3.0%-3.5% due to tariff impacts, although immediate effects remain muted [4][5] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to delay interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two cuts later in the year [6][5] Communication Sector - The deployment of 5G-A networks across 31 provinces in China is progressing, enhancing capacity, speed, latency, and reliability compared to 5G [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-reliance and independence in the communication industry, with a well-established domestic optical communication supply chain poised to benefit from reduced tariff impacts [13] Electronics Sector - The recent trade agreement has led to a significant reduction in tariffs on electronic components, providing a temporary reprieve for companies exporting to the US [15][16] - The report notes a recovery in market confidence within the electronics sector, although competition is expected to intensify as international players increase their presence in the Chinese market [16] Machinery Sector - April data shows a year-on-year increase of 17.6% in domestic excavator sales, although growth rates have slowed compared to previous months [19] - Leading manufacturers are experiencing improved profitability and operational quality, with significant cash flow increases reported [22][23] Light Industry - The home furnishing sector is showing signs of recovery, with government subsidies contributing to improved performance in Q1 2025 [26] - The packaging industry is witnessing steady performance from leading companies despite competitive pressures, with expectations for improved market dynamics [27]

Key Insights - The report highlights the effective outcomes of the recent China-US trade talks, with a focus on the potential benefits for the optical communication and IoT sectors due to reduced tariffs [12][13] - The easing of tariff pressures is expected to restore confidence in the consumer electronics sector, particularly benefiting companies in the Apple supply chain and leading passive component manufacturers [15][17] - The construction machinery sector shows a mixed performance, with domestic excavator sales growth slowing in April, but overall positive trends in export growth and improved operational quality among leading manufacturers [19][22][23] Macro Insights - The US CPI data indicates a slight decline in inflation, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in April, suggesting that tariff impacts have not yet significantly affected consumer prices [2][3] - High-frequency data shows some retail prices have begun to rise, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the latter half of 2025 [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions may be influenced by the delayed impacts of tariffs and inflation data, with expectations for rate cuts potentially occurring in September [6][5] Communication Sector - The deployment of 5G-A networks across 31 provinces in China is expected to enhance capacity, speed, latency, and reliability, paving the way for new applications and improved automation in traditional industries [8] - The focus on self-reliance and independence in technology development remains a priority, with the optical communication industry poised for growth despite tariff challenges [13] Electronics Sector - The recent trade agreement has led to a significant reduction in tariffs, providing a temporary reprieve for consumer electronics companies and potentially lowering production costs [15][16] - The market is witnessing a recovery in confidence, although competition is intensifying, necessitating innovation and quality improvements among domestic firms [16][17] Machinery Sector - April data shows a year-on-year increase in excavator sales, with domestic sales growing by 16.4% and exports by 19.3%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [19][22] - Leading manufacturers are experiencing improved profitability and operational quality, driven by cost control and reduced capital expenditure [22][23]

Key Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade agreement, which includes the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs, creating a more stable environment for negotiations and potential cooperation [2][3] - The agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty in trade, improve investor sentiment, and enhance corporate profit expectations, particularly for industries heavily reliant on exports [3][4] - The report suggests that sectors previously affected by tariffs, such as electronics, consumer goods, and machinery, may see a recovery in market performance [3][4] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing a structural recovery, with high growth in AI-related hardware and a stable performance in consumer electronics, supported by government subsidies [19][16] - Sub-sectors like semiconductors are witnessing a resurgence, with domestic replacements accelerating and a strong performance from leading companies [16][19] - The report notes a divergence in performance among companies within the consumer electronics space, with some benefiting from AI and global expansion while others face challenges from competition and demand weakness [17][19] Military Industry - The recent India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted China's military exports, with Pakistan being a significant customer for Chinese military equipment, which may enhance China's military trade reputation [22][23] - The report anticipates increased demand for military equipment due to the conflict and suggests that domestic military enterprises are less affected by US tariff wars, presenting a stable investment opportunity [24][22] - The long-term outlook for the military sector remains positive, with expectations of sustained high demand leading up to the centenary of the Chinese military in 2027 [24][22] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in profitability in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, driven by stabilizing infrastructure investment and a gradual recovery in demand [27][30] - The report indicates that cement prices may see upward pressure due to improved demand and supply optimization, while glass fiber and other materials are also expected to benefit from emerging market demand [30][27] - The construction materials market is anticipated to continue its recovery, supported by favorable policies and a focus on renovation and upgrading existing properties [30][28] Banking Sector - The banking sector is benefiting from a series of financial policies aimed at optimizing credit structures and enhancing profitability, with a notable increase in bank stock performance [32][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural monetary policy tools and the potential for increased capital inflows into the banking sector, which may further enhance its valuation [33][37] - The outlook for the banking sector remains positive, with expectations of continued support from government policies and a focus on technological financial services [36][37]

宏观动态报告 浮现宽货币,等待宽信用 2025 年 4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 5 月 14 日,央行发布 2025 年 4 月 金融数据, 4 月 M1 同比 1.5% ( 前 ● 值 1.6%），M2 同比 8.0%（前值 7.0%）。新增社融 1.16 万亿元,同比多增 1.22 万亿元，社融增速 8.7%（前值 8.4%）。金融机构新增人民币贷款 2800 浮现宽货币:我们认为 4 月的金融数据呈现比较明显的宽货币特征,M2 重回 8%,4 月全球贸易政策不确定性显著上升,不可避免对企业和居民预期带来 冲击,但衡量信心的 M1 仅小幅滑落并未失速。适度宽松基调下,央行展现保 持金融总量充裕的政策意图,2025年信贷供给侧的发力已比较明确。 等待宽信用:在 4 月的金融数据中,我们尚未找到宽信用链条已经建立的证 据,从政府融资前置到政府支出加快,再到拉动私人部门信用扩张的循环尚未 建立,宽信用仍然需要等待。我们认为在价格水平低位运行的背景下,货币政 策的传导效果部分被稀释。政策性金融工具和 PSL 有望在二季度适时推出协 同发力,这将有助于增加货币政策的传导效果,实现宽信用。 货币供应量数据: M ...

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 -40% ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.14) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 ■ 0 -5 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.14) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) =换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-19 04-15 05-14 02-13 0518 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-11 03-14 03-24 03-27 04-01 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-28 05-06 05-09 01-23 02-05 02-10 04-23 01- 01 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 可证券|CGS 北交所日报 今日涨跌 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade agreement, which includes the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs, creating a more stable environment for negotiations and potentially benefiting various sectors in the A-share market [2][3] - The electronic industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with high growth in segments driven by AI infrastructure, while consumer electronics are supported by government subsidies, leading to stable performance in the Apple supply chain [19][22] - The military industry is poised for growth due to increased domestic demand and military trade opportunities, particularly following the recent India-Pakistan conflict, which has enhanced the visibility of Chinese military equipment [22][24] - The construction materials sector is seeing a recovery in profitability, with expectations of improved demand driven by real estate policies and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] - The banking sector is benefiting from a series of financial policies aimed at optimizing credit structures, with a positive outlook for long-term value realization in bank stocks [32][37] Electronic Industry - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a recovery with accelerated domestic substitution, while the consumer electronics segment shows a mixed performance, with some companies benefiting from AI and global expansion [16][17] - The PCB and LED markets are experiencing growth due to increased demand from AI applications and government support, respectively [18][19] Military Industry - The recent India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the effectiveness of Chinese military equipment, potentially leading to increased military trade opportunities with countries in the Middle East and along the Belt and Road [22][23] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to recover, with improved profitability driven by stabilizing demand in the real estate market and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a comprehensive set of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools aimed at enhancing credit quality and supporting economic growth [32][37]