证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 板块表现： 中美关税"降级"催化，成本支撑叠加库存去化，铝价大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/12-2025/5/16） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价维持震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.86%/+0.89%/-1.34%，本周一中美发布经贸会谈联合声明，实现对等关税"降级"， 受此催化全球商品价格反弹，沪铜一度反弹至 7.9 万元/吨，后续逐步回落至 7.8 万 元/吨。基本 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The public utility sector is expected to benefit significantly from new trends, particularly due to the recent changes in fund management regulations that emphasize the importance of the "return-risk ratio" [10][12] - The demand for flexible resources in the new power system is driving the growth of energy storage installations, supported by continuous improvements in revenue mechanisms for energy storage stations [6][25] - The report highlights the strong performance of hydropower companies in terms of return-risk ratios, with major players like Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower ranking in the top percentiles of the A-share market [11][12] Summary by Sections Public Utilities - The report suggests increasing allocation to public utilities and power equipment due to the new fund regulations [4][9] - The public utility sector is identified as a major beneficiary of the recent policy changes, which are expected to enhance valuation trends [10][12] Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage utilization is improving, with a total installed capacity of 2.55 GW/5.72 GWh added in Q1 2025 [18] - The report notes that energy storage export orders have surged, with a year-on-year increase of 756.72% in Q1 2025, approaching a total of 100 GWh [25] - Key measures in Shandong province aim to enhance energy storage profitability, including widening the price difference for charging and discharging, and reducing operational costs [5][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resilient hydropower companies and undervalued thermal power operators benefiting from declining coal prices [13] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Yangtze Power, ChuanTou Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Goldwind Technology, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Anhui Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [13]

Group 1 - The report highlights the second adjustment of the North Exchange 50 Index in 2025, effective on June 16, 2025, with potential new additions including Lierda, Tongguan Mining Construction, Wanda Bearings, Juxing Technology, and Yinuowei [4][10][12] - The report discusses the revision of restructuring rules by the North Exchange, introducing a "small-scale fast" review mechanism and simplified review procedures, aimed at enhancing the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions for innovative SMEs [7][8][9] - The overall PE ratio of North Exchange A-shares has rebounded to 51X, with average daily trading volume increasing to 349 billion yuan, indicating improved market sentiment [17][20] Group 2 - The report suggests that institutional investors in the North Exchange market should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on long-term stable growth companies and sectors aligned with national policies such as "self-control" and innovation-driven development [14] - Key sectors to watch include high-end manufacturing, infrastructure with high dividends, and specialty consumer industries, as well as recent hot themes like AI and robotics [14] - The report notes that the North Exchange 50 Index has increased by 3.13% this week, outperforming other indices, with a year-to-date increase of 37% [22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees, mainly due to the passive compression caused by the upward movement of the risk - free rate, and the adjustment of credit bonds may not have arrived yet [1][29][32]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed this week, and maintaining a short - end sinking coupon strategy still has a relative advantage [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed this week. In the current environment, a defensive approach is still recommended, and attention should be paid to the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed this week, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening. It is recommended to continue to focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Overview - **Primary Market**: This week, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of credit bonds increased compared with last week. The issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees [3][6][10]. - **Secondary Market**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week, and the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds generally increased. The yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds were generally compressed, with a small number of bank capital bond maturities and varieties slightly widening [3][13][14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 77.3 billion yuan, an increase of 56.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 45.6 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 34.3 billion yuan, an increase of 78.1 billion yuan [6]. - **Issuance Cost**: This week, the issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased the most, by 44 BP compared with last week [10][12][13]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 30.3 billion yuan, 113.6 billion yuan, and 191.1 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 7.6 billion yuan [13]. - **Turnover Rate**: This week, the turnover rate of credit bonds generally increased compared with last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities increased by 0.19 pct, 0.67 pct, 1.36 pct, and 0.22 pct respectively [14]. - **Yield**: This week, the yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year decreased by 4 - 6 BP, those with a maturity of 1 - 3 years decreased by 2 - 4 BP, and those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years fluctuated by no more than 1 BP. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years, 7 - 10 years, and over 10 years increased by 0 - 5 BP [18]. - **Credit Spread**: - **Industry - wide**: This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees. The spreads of the AA + electronics industry and the AAA agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry were significantly compressed [21]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds were compressed by 6 BP, 8 BP, 7 BP, 5 BP, and 2 BP respectively [25]. - **Industrial Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed. The credit spreads of 10Y private placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds of different ratings were compressed by 1 - 2 BP compared with last week, while the compression of other maturities was 5 BP or more [29]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening [32]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinion - The "23 Xinjie 01" issued by Xinjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. was extended; the "H20 Technology 1" issued by Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. was extended; Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Holding Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list, and its "20 Quwengkong Bond 01" and "21 Quwengkong Bond 01" were also put on the watch list; the "Shengxun Convertible Bond" issued by Beijing Shengxun Electronic Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list [1][37]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - For urban investment bonds, maintain a short - end sinking coupon strategy [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, adopt a defensive approach and focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to a recent temporary reduction in tariffs between China and the US, leading to a significant increase in shipping volumes on the US route. The average booking volume surged by 277% compared to the previous week [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 10.0% week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in shipping rates, particularly for routes to the US [6] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with express delivery volumes in April increasing by 19.1% year-on-year, reflecting robust demand across various sectors [9] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring growth in the sector [12] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The recent tariff reductions have led to a surge in demand for shipping services, particularly on the US route, with a projected increase in freight rates over the next 2-3 months due to supply constraints [5] - The average weekly capacity for the US route is expected to be 500,000 TEU, down 6% from last year [5] - The oil tanker market is facing supply tightness due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, which is expected to sustain high demand in the coming years [12] Express Logistics - In April, the express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with revenue reaching 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [9] - The concentration index for express delivery brands (CR8) was 86.7, indicating a stable competitive landscape [9] Aviation and Airports - The airline industry is poised for growth due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with key companies to watch including China Southern Airlines and Air China [12] - The passenger transport volume in March was approximately 59 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [50] Overall Market Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the transportation index rose by 2.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The shipping sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, indicating strong market performance [17]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold price has experienced fluctuations recently, with London spot gold decreasing by 2.05% to $3182.95 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold down by 3.65% to ¥751.80 per gram. Meanwhile, the holding volume of Shanghai gold increased by 5.68% to 437,100 lots [6][11] - The recent price movements are attributed to the easing of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have led to a temporary pullback in gold prices. Key factors include the US-China joint statement on tariff adjustments and ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7] - The Federal Reserve may reshape its monetary policy framework, with Chairman Powell indicating potential challenges for the US economy and the Fed. The expectation of interest rate cuts and the continuation of tax reduction policies are anticipated to provide strong momentum for gold prices [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Recent price changes include a 2.05% drop in London spot gold to $3182.95 per ounce and a 3.65% decrease in Shanghai gold to ¥751.80 per gram. Silver and platinum also saw slight declines, while palladium increased by 1.05% to $964 per ounce [11][12] 2. US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US economic data, including the May PMI and core PCE price index, which will be crucial for assessing the economic landscape and potential impacts on gold prices [6][7] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The holding volume for Shanghai gold rose by 5.68% to 437,100 lots, indicating increased market activity despite the price declines [11] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The domestic gold price difference from international prices decreased, with the gold price gap at ¥10.46 per gram, down by ¥17.97 from two weeks prior [60] 5. Futures Basis Situation - The international gold basis (spot-futures) is reported at -$22.35 per ounce, a decrease of $24.65 from two weeks ago, indicating a shift in market dynamics [69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term value of wind power operators despite short-term performance drag due to market entry challenges [5][7] - The company has shown a revenue increase of 0.93% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 4.44% due to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation [7] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in power generation, with a 9.26% increase in total generation in Q1 2025, driven by new installations and favorable wind conditions [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 12,802 million RMB - 2024: 12,576 million RMB - 2025E: 13,987 million RMB (11.2% growth) - 2026E: 14,770 million RMB (5.6% growth) - 2027E: 15,480 million RMB (4.8% growth) [6][8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,240 million RMB - 2024: 1,925 million RMB - 2025E: 2,317 million RMB (20.4% growth) - 2026E: 2,457 million RMB (6.1% growth) - 2027E: 2,522 million RMB (2.6% growth) [6][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.32 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 [6][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of 16,147.62 million HKD and a circulating market capitalization of 5,552.38 million HKD [3] - The report indicates that the company’s receivables are approximately 1.54 times its current market value, reflecting strong recognition from state-owned insurance capital [7] - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term value of wind power operators, citing advantages over solar power in terms of output and operational cycles [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has been affected by poor wind conditions, leading to a focus on the construction turning point under comprehensive market entry [5] - The company has transitioned to a pure renewable energy company, with significant potential for future asset injections from its parent group [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.977 billion RMB, a decrease of 21.82% [8] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the divestment of two thermal power companies, with wind and solar revenue showing a year-on-year change of -1.89% and +43.09%, respectively [8] - The company's installed capacity as of Q1 2025 was 41.15 million kW, with wind power capacity at 30.44 million kW (up 10% year-on-year) and solar capacity at 10.70 million kW (up 65% year-on-year) [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.794 billion, 7.202 billion, and 7.756 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.6 [7][8]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 17 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 月 | 年 | 05 | | 日 | 16 | | 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 3.22 | | | | | | | 一 年 最 高 / 最 低 | | | | 3.33/2.40 | | | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 59,591.61 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 59,591.61 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is stable and slightly exceeds expectations, with contributions from both thermal and hydropower generation [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 39.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45% [7] - The company has a robust cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 14 billion yuan in the first quarter, a 93% increase year-on-year, marking the highest for the company in its first quarter reports [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 180.999 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.02% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 5.609 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 98.80% [6] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 6.811 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 30.72% compared to 2024 [6] - The average on-grid electricity price in the first quarter was 425.41 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year [7] - The company plans capital expenditures of 74.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on both traditional and renewable energy projects [7][8]