证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 09 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年09月08日 华源晨会精粹 20250908 固定收益 基金赎回费新规对债市有何影响？——公募基金赎回费新规点评：公募基 金赎回费新规即将落地。上半年银行自营基金投资规模增长停滞。理财持有纯债基 金规模不大。赎回费新规约束频繁申赎。我们认为，理财、年金等对资产流动性有 要求，估计未来纯债基金投资会逐步转到债券 ETF 上。但理财持有主动管理的债基 规模不大，且以信用债基及固收+基金为主，对债市影响有限。此外，新规实施后， 债基规模的稳定性将增强，或提升债基投资的灵活性，有助于实施拉长久期等策略。 债券 ETF 不受赎回费新规影响，我们预判，理财、年金、险资在债基投资方面可能 将更偏好债券 ETF。银行负债成本下行或将支撑债券收益率震荡下行。我们预判， 未来几年，10 年期国债收益率或将跟随银行计息负债成本下降而震荡下行。当前， 10Y 国债收益率 1.75%左右，且政府债券利息收入免企业所得税，而 A 股上市银行 整体 25Q3 计息负债成本率预计 1.67%左右，10Y ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 08 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 快递迎来全面提价，关注油运旺季表现 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 9 月 1 日-2025 年 9 月 7 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）快递"反内卷"向中部、北部省份推进，全国性涨价趋势进一步巩固。根据南方 都市报报道，湖南、湖北、江西等地快递公司近期发布涨价通知：9 月 1 日起江西省、 湖北省出港快件在现价基础上上涨不低于 0.2 元/票，10 月 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 08 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 月 | 08 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 09 | | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | 16.92 | | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 内 低 | | | 最 | 高 | / | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the distribution segment is optimizing its business structure, leading to a steady improvement in the profitability of Guoda Pharmacy [4] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.8 billion yuan (down 2.6% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan (down 10.4% year-on-year) [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.5 billion yuan (down 1.0% year-on-year) and a net profit of 340 million yuan (down 4.7% year-on-year) [4] - The distribution segment generated revenue of 26.78 billion yuan in H1 2025 (down 1.1% year-on-year), while the retail segment (Guoda Pharmacy) generated revenue of 10.48 billion yuan (down 6.5% year-on-year) [7] - Guoda Pharmacy's net profit in H1 2025 was 17 million yuan (up 215.8% year-on-year), with a total of 8,591 stores, including 6,931 direct-operated stores and 1,660 franchise stores [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.32 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.43 billion yuan, with growth rates of 105.9%, 3.9%, and 3.9% respectively [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11X for 2025, 10X for 2026, and 10X for 2027 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, predicting that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate downward, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2] Report's Core View - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented, aiming to reduce investor costs, optimize redemption arrangements, encourage long - term holding, and standardize fund sales fees [2] - The new redemption fee regulations will restrict frequent redemptions and subscriptions, but their impact on the bond market is limited, with only possible trading frictions on credit bonds and convertible bonds [2] - The new regulations will increase the attractiveness of retail bond funds and money funds to individual investors and enhance the stability of bond fund scales [2][3] - The era of bond ETFs may be coming, and institutions such as wealth management, annuities, and insurance funds may prefer bond ETFs [3] - The decline in bank liability costs will support the downward fluctuation of bond yields [2] Summary by Related Catalogs New Regulations on Public Fund Redemption Fees - On September 5, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulations on the Administration of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)", including reducing subscription, purchase, and service fees, optimizing redemption arrangements, and setting differential trailing commission payment ratio caps [2] Current Situation of Fund Investment - As of the end of June 2025, the total public fund holdings of A - share listed banks were 6.01 trillion yuan, slightly down 0.07 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the self - operated fund holdings of commercial banks in the first half of 2025 were 8.02 trillion yuan, accounting for 31.9% of the fixed - income fund scale in the first half of 2025 [2] - As of the end of March 2025, the scale ratios of medium - and long - term bond funds, short - term bond funds, first - level bond funds, and second - level bond funds in the bond funds allocated by wealth management were 49.0%, 21.4%, 12.0%, and 3.3% respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, the total holdings of medium - and long - term bond funds and short - term bond funds by wealth management were 0.58 trillion yuan [2] Impact of New Redemption Fee Regulations - The new regulations require that the redemption fees be fully included in the fund property, with different fee standards for different holding periods, which will affect the trading demand of institutional investors for bond funds and fixed - income + funds [2] - The new regulations have limited impact on the bond market. Wealth management and annuities may gradually shift their pure bond fund investments to bond ETFs, but the impact on the bond market is limited due to the small scale of actively managed bond funds held by wealth management [2] - The new regulations reduce the sales service fees of bond funds and money funds, increase their yields, and enhance their attractiveness to individual investors, which is conducive to the growth of retail bond fund and money fund scales [2][3] Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond ETF era may be coming. As of the end of August 2025, the scale of bond ETFs had reached 56.43 billion yuan, and it may grow rapidly in the next few years [3] - With the gradual repricing of long - term time deposits, the interest - bearing liability cost rate of commercial banks is expected to decline year by year in the next five years, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may follow the decline [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 138.1 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 24.64 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed a sequential increase in net profit by 6.2% [6] - The company has improved its coal production costs significantly, achieving a production cost of 177.7 yuan per ton, down 7.7% year-on-year, which contributed to a sequential increase in coal business gross profit [6] - The company is strategically acquiring assets from the National Energy Group to enhance resource allocation and integrated operational capabilities, addressing industry competition issues [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 38.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of 758.18 billion yuan and a total share capital of 19,868.52 million shares [3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total coal production and sales volume of 165 million tons and 205 million tons, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% and 10.9% [6] - The average coal price was 493 yuan per ton, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the gross profit from coal business was 32.53 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate a net profit of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 14.29 [8][9] - The forecasted revenue for 2025 is 331 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.18% [8] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that coal prices may have reached a bottom, with supply-demand rebalancing beginning, and the company is positioned as a leading player with more reliable dividends [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The new business value (NBV) has shown a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, and the interim dividend exceeded expectations [5][6] - The company's mid-year performance aligns with market expectations, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 2.1% and 6.9% year-on-year, respectively [6][10] - The total investment return rate decreased by 30 basis points to 3.29% year-on-year, while the interim dividend increased by 19%, surpassing the growth rate of net profit [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 239.2 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.9 billion yuan [6] - The company's net assets, embedded value (EV), and service margin (CSM) increased by 2.7%, 5.5%, and 1.6% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The NBV growth rate was 20.3% on a comparable basis, significantly higher than the 4.8% growth in the first quarter of 2025, indicating strong sales performance in the second quarter [10] Investment Business Insights - The company experienced a substantial increase in realized investment income, with the proportion of realized gains in total investment income higher than the previous year [11] - The asset allocation strategy has shifted, with an increase in core secondary equity (stocks + equity funds) by 1.4 percentage points to 13.6% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 121.8 billion, 124.5 billion, and 143.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 2.2%, and 14.9% respectively [12] - The estimated embedded value per share for 2025-2027 is projected to be 55.6, 60.2, and 65.3 yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.72, 0.66, and 0.61 times [12]

市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 09 | | 月 | | | | 05 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 42.27 | | | 年 高 / 最 低 | | | | | | 最 | 内 | 一 | | | | | （元） | | | | 63.99/13.67 | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 8,507.14 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 8,507.14 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | | | | 201.26 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | | | | 49.22 | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | | | | 8.36 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 医药生物 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its growth trend in performance, with an improvement in profitability driven by an increase in gross margin [3][5] - The company has a strong market position in the Guangdong province and is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid development of urban rail transit in the Greater Bay Area [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 221 million yuan, up 6.58% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 740 million yuan, a 15.76% increase year-on-year, and net profits showing a substantial increase of 60.73% [5] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.74%, with a notable increase in Q2 to 38.20% [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.573 billion yuan in 2023, 2.748 billion yuan in 2024, and 2.934 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.92%, 6.79%, and 6.77% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 432 million yuan in 2023, 492 million yuan in 2024, and 553 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 8.01%, 13.91%, and 12.44% respectively [4] Business Segment Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from surveying and design, planning consulting, and EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) was 1.08 billion yuan, 25 million yuan, and 212 million yuan respectively, showing varied growth rates across segments [5] - The company maintained strong growth in its EPC business, while the planning consulting segment faced challenges [5] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The net cash flow from operating activities in H1 2025 was -521 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in cash outflow compared to the previous year [5] - The company's net profit margin for H1 2025 was 16.89%, with a significant increase in Q2 to 22.53% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Currently, the report has a phased and clear bullish view on the bond market [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market and the return on 10-year Treasury bonds are relatively consistent, and the economy may have stabilized at a low level in the first half of 2025, but there is still downward pressure [1][4]. - The loan growth rate continues to decline, the proportion of loans on the asset side of banks tends to decrease, and the financial investment proportion of large banks has increased since early 2023 [1]. - The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities of listed banks has declined quarter by quarter, and it is expected to further decline in the next few years [1]. - The decline in bank liability costs will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of government bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 From the Semi-annual Report of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economic and Bank Operating Pressures - **From the Performance of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economy** - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market can reflect the nominal GDP growth rate to a certain extent, and it is more consistent with the return on 10-year Treasury bonds than the nominal GDP growth rate [5][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market was 0.0%, and the net profit growth rate attributable to the parent was 2.4%. The growth rate of the entire A-share market excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals was under pressure, reflecting the large pressure on real - economy growth [4][10]. - **From the Performance of the Bank Sector to See the Economy** - The performance of the banking industry is closely related to the economy. In the past two years, the performance growth of the banking industry has been significantly under pressure, and the net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to decline [13][16]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.42%, a record low, and the average net interest margin of various types of listed banks has also decreased significantly [16][18]. - **From the Liabilities of the Entire A-share Market to See the Financing Demand** - Since the first quarter of 2024, the long - term borrowing of the entire A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals) has stagnated, reflecting the weak financing demand of market - oriented enterprises [20]. - The social financing growth rate generally leads the nominal GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 quarters, and the social financing growth rate may decline in the next few months [23]. 3.2 What Changes Have Occurred in the Bank's Assets and Liabilities? - **The Loan Growth Rates of Large and Small and Medium - Sized Banks Have Both Declined** - As of the end of July 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.9%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2011 [25]. - The growth rate of personal housing loans is under pressure of negative growth, and the loan growth rates of large and small and medium - sized banks have both declined. The proportion of loans of listed banks has tended to decline since the second quarter of 2024 [25][29]. - **The Proportion of Deposits on the Liability Side of Large Banks Has Decreased, and the Proportion of Deposits of Small and Medium - Sized Banks Has Remained Stable** - Since early 2023, the proportion of deposits of the six major banks has decreased from 81.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 76.0% in the second quarter of 2025, while the average proportion of deposits of listed joint - stock banks has increased [25]. - The large - scale banks' corporate deposit growth has slowed down, and the large - scale banks' dependence on non - bank inter - bank deposits has increased [39][45]. 3.3 Which Banks Had More Financial Investment Growth in the First Half of 2025? - Since early 2023, the proportion of financial investment of large banks has rebounded. As of the end of June 2025, the overall financial investment of A - share listed banks reached 97.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of assets [51]. - In the first half of 2025, ICBC and CCB had more financial investment growth, while a small number of joint - stock banks' financial investment decreased. The financial investment increments of large banks, joint - stock banks, and city and rural commercial banks were all significant [55][59]. - As of the end of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the bond investment of the four major banks reached 21.2%, the highest since 2017, and that of small and medium - sized banks was 18.3% [60]. 3.4 How Much Has the Cost of Interest - Bearing Liabilities of Banks Decreased? - In 2025, the decline of the current deposit ratio has slowed down. Since early 2018, the current deposit ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to further decline in the future, but the decline rate may slow down [61]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the deposit interest - payment rate has decreased significantly. The overall deposit interest - payment rate of A - share listed banks in the first half of 2025 was 1.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 32BP [65]. - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities has declined quarter by quarter. It is expected to further decline in the next few years, and may drop below 1.65% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [67]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - It is expected that the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next five years, which will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and the return on 10 - year Treasury bonds will follow the decline of bank interest - bearing liabilities [69]. - In the low - interest - rate era, it is recommended to reduce the return expectation of bond investment, and commercial bank self - operation should increase the allocation of government bonds [72][73].