IPO Performance - In November 2025, the average first-day return for new stocks was 471%, showing an increase from previous months[24] - The average first-day return for IPOs in the first 11 months of 2025 reached 356%, significantly higher than in 2024[25] Fundraising and Market Activity - A total of 23 companies completed their IPOs in the first 11 months of 2025, raising 6.7 billion yuan, surpassing the total for 2024[2] - In November, 5 companies went public, raising 980 million yuan, maintaining a rapid IPO pace[19] Subscription Trends - The average subscription amount for new shares in November was 711.2 billion yuan, reflecting strong market interest[32] - The average subscription limit for accounts in the first 11 months of 2025 increased to 12.28 million yuan, significantly higher than 8.07 million yuan in 2023 and 8.43 million yuan in 2024[36] Company Quality - The average revenue for newly listed companies in 2025 was 800 million yuan, with an average net profit of 110 million yuan, indicating improved company quality[41] - The average gross margin for new IPOs in 2025 was 34%, up from previous years[40] Market Risks - Risks include potential changes in IPO review policies and market enthusiasm for new stock subscriptions[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4][41] - The report highlights the potential for a wave of development in high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, indicating a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.6%, the ChiNext Index by 4.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.6%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Wantong Development (+19.3%), *ST Nan Zhi (+12.6%), Xinhua Group (+10.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+9.7%), and Tianbao Infrastructure (+9.2%). The bottom five were Huaxia Happiness (-14.9%), Jingji Zhino (-14.8%), Vanke A (-11.2%), Hefei Urban Construction (-9.8%), and Jindi Group (-6.2%) [4][7] New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 51.1% [11] - For November (up to the week of November 28), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 7.24 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 43.1% [15] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 202,000 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [26] - For November (up to the week of November 28), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 8 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [31] Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality development in the REITs market and support the construction of a new model for real estate development [2][41] - Various local governments are implementing policies to enhance housing affordability and stimulate the real estate market, such as increasing the loan limits for purchasing high-quality residential properties in cities like Xuzhou and Changzhou [41] Company Announcements - Notable financing activities include China Merchants Shekou issuing bonds up to 5.04 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.77% for three years, and Poly Developments issuing medium-term notes with varying maturities and interest rates [44][45]

Export Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's transformer export value reached $647.874 million, a year-on-year increase of 39%[3] - The number of transformers exported in the same period was 236,112 units, reflecting a growth of 5.4% year-on-year[3] - Notably, in September 2025, the export value of transformers surged by 47% year-on-year[7] Industry Outlook - The transformer industry is expected to benefit from rising electricity demand, expansion of renewable energy, and an increase in charging stations[13] - The total production of transformers in China is projected to approach 2 trillion volt-amperes by 2025, with an estimated growth of 11% in 2024[3][27] - The market for high-voltage transformers (above 110kV) is characterized by fewer participants and higher concentration, while the medium and low-voltage market is more competitive with many players[24] Company Performance - Guangxin Technology reported a revenue of $58.6 million in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.35%, with net profit reaching $15 million, up 91.95%[47][49] - Minshida achieved a net profit of $9.117 million in the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.88%[43][46] Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the electronic equipment industry on the North Exchange increased by 0.21% to 55.4X[3] - The North Exchange's technology growth stocks showed a median price change of 0.00% from November 24 to November 28, 2025, with 49% of companies experiencing a rise[3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts 2025 November new loans to be 450 billion yuan and social financing increment to be 2.15 trillion yuan; at end - Nov, M2 to reach 337.2 trillion, YoY +8.1%, new - caliber M1 YoY +5.6%, and social financing growth rate to be 8.4% [1] - November new loans may be less than the same period last year due to weak credit demand and banks' low motivation for credit issuance; future new loans may also be less year - on - year [2] - November M1 growth rate may decline, and M2 growth rate may slightly decline month - on - month [2] - Social financing growth rate may continue to decline, and it may drop to about 7.3% by the end of 2026 [2] - December bond market is promising, and the report is bullish on the bond market [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Predicts 450 billion yuan in new loans in November 2025, with individual loans +5 billion, corporate loans +35 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans +5 billion; individual short - term loans - 5 billion, individual long - term loans +10 billion; corporate short - term loans +0 billion, corporate long - term loans +15 billion, and bill financing +20 billion [2] M1 and M2 - Predicts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of November to be 5.6%, with a slight month - on - month decline; the M2 growth rate at the end of November to be 8.1%, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] Social Financing - Predicts 2.15 trillion yuan in social financing increment in November 2025, less than the same period in 2024; the growth rate at the end of November to be 8.4%, with a 0.1 - point month - on - month decline [2] Bond Market - Due to factors such as slow growth in bond fund scale and banks' and insurers' increased influence on bond market pricing, and considering factors like banks' lower liability costs and insurers' asset - liability duration gap, the report is bullish on the December bond market [2]

Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight rebound in November, but corporate profits remain under pressure, indicating potential economic downturn in Q4 [2][7] - Industrial profits fell significantly in October, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, reflecting a slowdown in economic growth compared to Q1 and Q2 [2][8] - The bond market is expected to perform well, with a forecasted decline in bond yields, driven by the necessity for policy interest rate cuts [10] Real Estate - Vanke's bond extension has negatively impacted the secondary market valuations of other real estate companies, although the overall effect is limited [13][18] - Vanke's financial situation remains precarious, with reliance on external financing for debt repayment, raising concerns about potential defaults [12][18] Transportation - The shipping industry is experiencing record high earnings, with VLCC daily earnings reaching $120,248 in November, the best performance since 2004 [20][23] - The logistics sector is seeing advancements in automation, with companies like Yunda and Jitu implementing automated sorting systems and unmanned delivery vehicles [20][21] Energy - The energy sector is focusing on the development of new storage capacity and pricing mechanisms, with provinces like Hubei and Heilongjiang advancing their storage system plans [4][10] Media - The film industry is witnessing a resurgence, with "Zootopia 2" grossing over 1.3 billion yuan, indicating strong market demand for quality films [4][6] Healthcare - Microelectrophysiology company has received approval for its self-developed PFA catheter, expanding its product matrix in the electrophysiology market [5][6] Consumer Goods - Bosideng reported a revenue increase of 1.4% in the first half of FY2025/26, driven by strong performance in its core down jacket business [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing diplomatic efforts surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation are creating opportunities for the infrastructure sector, particularly in post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, which is projected to require $486.2 billion over the next decade [4][13] - Chinese companies, particularly those with established operations in Ukraine, are well-positioned to participate in reconstruction efforts due to their competitive advantages in execution efficiency, cost control, and comprehensive industry chain support [4][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.56%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% during the week. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index increased by 2.81%, with all sub-sectors except housing construction showing gains, particularly landscape engineering, engineering consulting, and other specialized engineering [5][23] Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week amounted to CNY 273.83 billion, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 7,505.01 billion as of November 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.99% [6][28] - Urban investment bonds issued this week totaled CNY 55.05 billion, with a cumulative net financing of -CNY 545.48 billion as of November 30, 2025 [6][28] Company Dynamics - Notable project announcements include: - Tongji Technology won a bid for a project in Xi'an worth approximately CNY 866 million [18] - China Construction secured three major projects totaling CNY 10.67 billion [18] - China Aluminum International won a bid for a project valued at approximately CNY 2.909 billion [18] Industry News - Hunan Province reported significant achievements in transportation construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a total investment of CNY 538.6 billion, a 54% increase compared to the previous five years [15] - Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes housing supply and the development of a new real estate model, focusing on a "market + guarantee" housing supply system [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in gross margin and stable growth in orders on hand, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 54.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a net profit of 2.97 billion yuan, up 13.0% year-on-year [6] - The report anticipates a peak in coal and nuclear power deliveries in 2025, which could significantly enhance the company's performance [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 59.57 billion yuan - 2024: 68.59 billion yuan (growth of 9.94%) - 2025E: 82.43 billion yuan (growth of 20.18%) - 2026E: 87.34 billion yuan (growth of 5.95%) - 2027E: 91.09 billion yuan (growth of 4.30%) [5] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 3.55 billion yuan - 2024: 2.92 billion yuan (decline of 17.70%) - 2025E: 4.06 billion yuan (growth of 38.91%) - 2026E: 4.73 billion yuan (growth of 16.54%) - 2027E: 5.44 billion yuan (growth of 15.08%) [5] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.2%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [6] - The total effective orders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 88.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has received approval for its self-developed PFA product, enhancing its electrophysiology product matrix [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 478 million, 604 million, and 807 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.62%, 26.50%, and 33.60% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 69 million, 98 million, and 147 million RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 32.01%, 42.02%, and 50.63% respectively [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 336 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.65%, and a net profit of 42 million RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 24 million RMB [7] - The third quarter revenue was 113 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.78%, while the net profit was 9 million RMB, down 62.56% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 59.09%, with a sales expense ratio of 28.33% and a management expense ratio of 9.31% [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 478 million, 604 million, and 807 million RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 15.62%, 26.50%, and 33.60% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 69 million, 98 million, and 147 million RMB for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 32.01%, 42.02%, and 50.63% [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 157x, 111x, and 73x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Q4 economic downward pressure may rise. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in November, but corporate profits may continue to be under pressure. The traditional investment - driven economic model may be unsustainable. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Policy rate cuts and incremental tools in the next six months may be key support measures [2][75]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) [4][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct. The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3pct from the previous month, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][12]. - In October, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the revenue decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [4][21]. - On November 25, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan in November, the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - over [4][22]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 23, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 2.2% year - on - year. As of November 27, the 7 - day total national movie box office increased by 70.9% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [23][27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 23, the container throughput of ports increased by 12.8% year - on - year. As of November 28, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.2% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 7.0% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 2.3% year - on - year [31][32]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 26, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8pct. As of November 27, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0pct. The soda ash operating rate was 81.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0pct, and the PVC operating rate was 78.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4pct [40][42]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of November 28, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 33.2% year - on - year. As of November 21, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of November 28, the average pork wholesale price decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, the vegetable wholesale price increased by 15.9% year - on - year, and the average price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 28, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.62%/1.84%/2.19% respectively, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.2BP/+2.8BP/+2.6BP/+2.8BP respectively. The yields of other bonds also had corresponding changes [59]. - On November 28, the U.S. dollar - to - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate were 7.08/7.08, down 86/309 pips from November 21 [69]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 5.0 years, and the median was about 4.2 years, compared with November 21, they changed by + 0.11/ - 0.20 years respectively [71]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 2.0 years, and the median was about 2.1 years, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.04/+0.05 years respectively [72]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that the current bond market has prominent allocation value. Due to domestic economic data pressure, high short - term interest rates, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy rate may be cut by 20BP in the next six months [4][76].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 01 日 万科债券展期的几点看法 ——信用分析周报（2025/11/24-2025/11/28） 投资要点： 11 月 2 日，万科与其第一大股东深铁集团签署《框架协议》，限定了向万科提供的 贷款额度，并要求万科提供资产抵押。11 月 26 日，万科公告称将于 12 月 10 日召 开债券持有人会议，对"22 万科 MTN004"展期相关事项进行审议。公告发出后， 万科多只债项陆续公告临时停牌，债券价格大幅下跌。 联系人 主要房企的财务与经营状况：主要房企的总资产规模自 2022 年以来整体呈波动下降 趋势，且流动资产以更陡峭的斜率下行的原因在于存货规模的逐年下降，主要原因 包括两点：其一，主要房企新增土储和新开工项目锐减；其二，商品住宅价格持续 下滑，房企存货资产减值损失存在确认不充分的风险，低迷房价或使房企资产规模 持续面临萎缩压力。从债务结构来看，主要房企的有息负债率逐步攀升，但营业收 入和净利润所反映出的经营状况并不理想。房地产销售低迷、商品住宅价格持续下 滑、有息负债率逐步攀升，主要房企的基本面明显承压。 万科债券展期是否 ...