Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for crude oil [5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, oil prices will be affected by the change in the US stance towards Russia, with an upward risk. The potential decline in Russian exports due to the US threat of imposing secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil has not been fully priced in. The short - term volatility of oil prices is expected to increase. In the medium to long term, the risk of supply glut remains high [3][21] Summary by Directory OPEC+ to Exit 2.2 million b/d Voluntary Cuts One Year Ahead - On August 3, 2025, OPEC+ decided to increase the production target by 547,000 b/d in September 2025. The eight countries will adjust the voluntary cut exit process flexibly according to market conditions. OPEC+ will exit the 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts (and a 300,000 b/d production baseline increase for the UAE) one year ahead, with the September production target rising to around 36.3 million b/d [8] - OPEC+ actual production adjustment lags behind the increase in production targets, and the expectation of the peak demand season has supported the slight upward shift of the oil price fluctuation range since July [8] - In June 2025, OPEC+ total production was 34.69 million b/d, slightly lower than the agreement target. The production of 8 voluntary - cut countries increased by 394,000 b/d, with a slower - than - planned increase but a faster growth rate than the previous month. Iraq and Russia's production was still below the target, while Kazakhstan continued to over - produce, and Saudi Arabia's production was significantly higher than the target due to temporary measures [11] - After exiting the 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts, there are still two layers of cuts to be exited. Saudi Arabia may accept lower oil prices for some time to pressure other members. After the seasonal demand weakens, the risk of inventory build - up is high, and the current baseline expectation is that OPEC+ may pause further production increases after the September increase [15] US Threatens to Increase Sanctions, Risk of Russian Export Disruptions Rises - US President Trump has pressured Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine by August 8, threatening to impose secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. The EU has also announced the 18th round of sanctions against Russia [18] - The "secondary tariff" measure may lead to more complex tariff frictions between the US and China or India, and have a negative impact on the economy and oil demand. Indian refineries have increased crude oil purchases from non - Russian markets. If the tariffs are implemented, Russian exports may decline. However, the market is still skeptical about whether the US will severely crack down on Russian energy exports [19] Investment Advice - Since the third quarter, oil prices have been relatively strong. The supply glut risk is not prominent during the peak demand season, but the contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals may emerge after the seasonal demand weakens. The US tariff policy may further suppress demand growth expectations, and the long - term risk of supply glut remains high [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [13] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, expected to be oscillating [17] - US Stock Index Futures: Attention should be paid to the risk of correction at the current level [19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: In early August, it is a favorable period for the bond market, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. It is not recommended to chase the long position [25] - Soybean Meal: The futures price is expected to maintain a pattern of being strong domestically and weak overseas. If Sino - US relations do not make substantial progress, the price center is expected to rise [29][30] - Edible Oils (Soybean, Rapeseed, Palm): For palm oil, pay attention to Indonesia's production recovery in August; for soybean oil, pay attention to the sustainability of domestic exports [32] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with an operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [37] - Steam Coal: The price is expected to oscillate around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand in mid - to late August [39] - Rebar/HRC: Adopt a cautious and oscillating approach in the near future [43] - Iron Ore: In the short - term, it is expected to continue the oscillating market. Pay attention to the impact of the switch of production restriction expectations [45] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and powder is expected to remain low and oscillating [49] - Corn: In the medium - to long - term, it is expected to maintain an oscillating downward trend. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions [51] - Coking Coal/Coke: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation [54] - Polysilicon: In the short - term, the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider a callback - bullish strategy and sell out - of - the - money put options [57] - Industrial Silicon: The short - term decline sentiment has not been fully released. Consider gradually closing short positions and look for potential long - entry opportunities later [59] - Lead: Pay attention to short - term buying opportunities at low prices and manage positions well. For arbitrage, temporarily observe. Consider long - short arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [61] - Zinc: Unilaterally, it is recommended to observe. Low - position speculative long positions can be held in the short - term. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term long - short arbitrage opportunities. Observe the domestic and foreign markets [66] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to overseas mine disturbance risks. Consider long positions at low prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the copper long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets [71] - Lithium Carbonate: Consider lightly going long at low prices. For the 9 - 11 spread, take profit [73] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is difficult for the price to fall deeply. Pay attention to band trading opportunities [76] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The price is expected to be weakly oscillating [79] - Crude Oil: Short - term price volatility is expected to increase [82] - Caustic Soda: The subsequent market is expected to be oscillating [83] - Pulp: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodities [85] - PVC: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodities [86] - Styrene: The near - month contract is expected to be weakly oscillating. For pure benzene, consider allocation opportunities if the expected decline occurs [89][90] - Bottle Chip: Consider the opportunity to expand the processing margin by rolling long at low prices [93] - Urea: The Indian tender result is better than expected, which may support the futures price [96] Core Views - The employment market data is weakening, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts is increasing. Gold is oscillating and bullish in the short - term. The US dollar is affected by Trump's tariff policy and is expected to be oscillating in the short - term [12][16][17] - A - share market shows strong resilience, with high risk appetite. The service trade deficit in China has decreased significantly in the first half of the year [21] - In the agricultural product market, the increase in sugar imports in some countries indicates low global consumer inventories. The supply and demand of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, weather, and inventory [26][36] - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating, and the impact of environmental protection production restrictions on actual output needs to be rationally evaluated. The supply and demand of coal and iron ore are affected by factors such as weather and policy [38][42] - In the non - ferrous metal market, the price trends of different metals are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policy. For example, copper is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and overseas mine disturbances [71] - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and international market conditions. For example, the price of crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production decisions and Trump's tariff policy [81] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs on India, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is increasing. Gold is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [11][12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff policy against India and the Fed official's statement on interest rate cuts. The US dollar is expected to be oscillating in the short - term [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU suspends trade counter - measures against the US, and the June factory orders in the US decreased. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction at the current level [18][19] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's service trade deficit decreased in the first half of the year. A - shares show strong resilience. It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [21] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. In early August, it is a favorable period for the bond market, but the upward rhythm is tortuous. It is not recommended to chase the long position [22][24][25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase, and the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate is 69%. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to be strong domestically and weak overseas [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean, Rapeseed, Palm Oils) - The inventory of soybean oil increased, and that of palm oil decreased. Pay attention to Indonesia's palm oil production and the sustainability of domestic soybean oil exports [31][32] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan and the Philippines plan to import sugar. The international sugar price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [34][35][37] 2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Rainfall in Inner Mongolia affects coal production. The coal price is expected to oscillate around 670 yuan, and pay attention to the price after the decline in rigid demand [38][39] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Trump's tariff policy on multiple countries. Steel prices are oscillating, and the impact of environmental protection production restrictions needs to be rationally evaluated [40][42][43] 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The transportation of Mariposa iron ore is approved. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44][45] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The prices of starch by - products are weak and stable. The price difference between rice and powder is expected to remain low and oscillating [46][49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Typhoons affect the weather in some areas. Corn is expected to decline oscillatingly in the medium - to long - term [50][51] 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Rainfall in Inner Mongolia affects coal production. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating in the short - term [52][53][54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India releases a solar cell list. The polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short - term [55][57] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in July increased. The short - term decline sentiment has not been fully released [58][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot inventory decreased slightly. Consider short - term buying opportunities at low prices [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc inventory increased. The zinc price is expected to be oscillating, and pay attention to the integer - level support [62][65][66] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale emphasizes copper growth. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and pay attention to overseas mine disturbances [67][71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - MinRes and Dynamic modify the lithium joint - venture terms. Consider lightly going long at low prices [72][73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel iron is difficult to repair. Nickel is expected to have band trading opportunities [75][76] 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to be weakly oscillating [78][79] 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump threatens to increase tariffs on India. Short - term price volatility is expected to increase [80][81][82] 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is expected to be oscillating [82][83] 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is expected to decline following the commodities [84][85] 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market is expected to decline following the commodities [86] 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The near - month contract of styrene is expected to be weakly oscillating. For pure benzene, consider allocation opportunities if the expected decline occurs [87][89][90] 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - Consider the opportunity to expand the processing margin by rolling long at low prices [92][93] 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The Indian tender result is better than expected, which may support the futures price [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US July non - farm payrolls were far below expectations, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, a weakening of the US dollar index, and concerns about the economic and demand prospects in various markets [1][14][18]. - The new issuance of treasury bonds will resume a 6% VAT levy from August 8, 2025, which may cause price differentiation between new and old bond types in the short - term and is bearish for the bond market in the long - term [25][26]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors. For example, steel prices are under回调 pressure, and agricultural product prices are influenced by policies and supply - demand relationships [4][31][42]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US 7 - month non - farm employment was far below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June. Gold prices rose about 2% on Friday. The market quickly adjusted its expectations for the Fed's rate cut in September, but gold remained in a short - term shock range. It is recommended that gold prices be in a short - term shock after pricing the positives on Friday [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The resignation of the Fed governor may allow Trump to choose Powell's successor earlier. The US July non - farm data was far below expectations, and the labor market had a potential inflection point, causing the US dollar index to weaken significantly. It is recommended that the US dollar index be weak in the short - term [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics director due to manipulated employment data. The July non - farm data showed a cooling employment market, and the significant downward revision of previous values increased market concerns about the real economy. It is expected that the stock index will continue to decline [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Recently, many active equity funds have announced purchase restrictions. The stock market has corrected from a high level, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3600 points. The 7 - month PMI was below expectations, and some micro - cap quantitative strategy funds announced purchase restrictions, indicating that the market has a preliminary perception of the high current level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Starting from August 8, 2025, a 6% VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds. The market is expected to rise first and then fall next week. In the short - term, it may cause price differentiation between new and old bond types, and in the long - term, it is bearish for the bond market. It is recommended that trading positions gradually withdraw from long positions [25][26][28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US June soybean crushing volume was 5.91 million short tons. The domestic soybean meal futures price was relatively strong compared to the external market. The supply - demand situation of domestic soybean meal changed little, and the inventory was expected to continue to rise. It is expected that the situation of strong domestic and weak external markets will continue, and the trading center of soybean meal will move up [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's June palm oil exports increased slightly year - on - year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased month - on - month. There were news of domestic traders exporting soybean oil to India. It is expected that palm oil will maintain a narrow - range shock, and short - term consideration can be given to a long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil spread [34][35]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coke price in the Changzhi market was running strongly. The coking coal price continued to strengthen, but the increase narrowed. The coal - coke futures market fluctuated greatly. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a shock trend, and the 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation [37][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan increased the tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth by 18%. The demand for imported cotton in Vietnam decreased, and the inventory of finished products increased. The weekly export signing volume of new US cotton decreased. ICE cotton prices are expected to be in a low - level weak shock. It is expected that the decline space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and there may be a rebound before the large - scale listing of new cotton [42][43]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 25/26 sugar production is expected to increase. StoneX lowered the global sugar supply surplus in 2025/26. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of July increased year - on - year. ICE raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak shock. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be in a weak shock in the short - term, with the operating range between 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [44][48][49]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's heavy - truck sales increased in July. The US will impose tariffs on Brazilian semi - finished steel. Steel prices continued to be in a weak shock, with inventory accumulation and a seasonal decline in building material demand. It is expected that steel prices will still have回调 pressure in the near future [50][53][54]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on August 1. The supply and demand of steam coal were both weakening. It is expected that the coal price will continue to be in a shock market, with limited short - term rebound height [55][56]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The sales of new cars decreased in July. The iron ore price followed a slight correction this week, and the fundamentals were not in sharp contradiction. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a shock [57][58]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The port inventory of cassava starch decreased slightly, and the price difference with corn starch narrowed. The开机 rate of downstream starch sugar was still weak year - on - year. It is expected that the price difference between rice and flour will remain in a low - level shock [59][60]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The average inventory of feed enterprises increased year - on - year. The North Port inventory continued to decline, and the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased. It is expected that corn will maintain a downward shock trend in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions in new crops [61][62]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association called for production control and the implementation of ESG standards. The macro - environment was short - term positive, and the fundamentals of nickel showed a supply - surplus situation. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [63][64][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - South Korea's copper exports to the US are expected to decline due to tariffs. Codelco cut copper mining at the El Teniente project. The overseas macro - expectations were volatile, and the global visible inventory was rising. It is recommended to take a short - term short - selling strategy and wait for medium - term long - buying opportunities [66][69][70]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in various regions increased slightly. The inventory situation was mixed. The "anti - involution" trading of industrial silicon declined, but the fundamentals improved marginally. It is recommended that short positions consider gradually stopping losses and waiting for long - buying opportunities [71][72]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving inspection task for the polysilicon industry, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added designated quality inspection institutions. The spot transaction price of polysilicon increased, but the production was expected to increase in August, resulting in a surplus. It is expected that the polysilicon price will run between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [73][75][77]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The annual output of PLS exceeded expectations. The demand for lithium carbonate in August was positive, and the supply had uncertainties. It is recommended to consider short - term long - buying positions and stop profiting from the 9 - 11 spread [78][79]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - forward spread decreased, and the supply of zinc was expected to increase in August. The demand was weak. The zinc price may have a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider a medium - term positive spread [80][81]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price was in a shock. The power industry demand was low, and the US tariff measures may affect European manufacturing. It is expected that the EU carbon price will be in a short - term shock [82][83]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Oil prices fell on Friday due to concerns about demand. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a shock [85][86][87]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was average. It is expected that the caustic soda market will be in a shock [87]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of some imported wood pulp varieties was stable, and some continued to decline. The pulp market was weak. It is expected that the pulp futures will follow the commodity correction [88][89]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder decreased. The futures market was weak, and the demand was average. It is expected that the PVC futures will follow the commodity correction [90]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips continued to decrease. The bottle chip factory implemented a production - cut plan. The demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to consider increasing the processing margin of bottle chips at low valuations [92][93]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The port inventory of Chinese urea decreased. The supply pressure continued to exist, and the demand was average. The urea market was under shock pressure. It is expected to wait for new policy variables [94][95]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved. The supply - demand pattern was in a tight - balance state. It is expected that PTA will follow the commodity sentiment for shock adjustment [96][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina showing a bearish signal and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline. The Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [1][10][14]. - The overall technical rating of the black sector is stable, with rebar turning bearish. Coking coal and coke are in an adjustment period after a sharp rise last week, showing a bearish signal next week. The coking coal JM2601 is at risk of a short - term decline [2][26][30]. - In the energy - chemical sector, asphalt is bullish, crude oil and fuel oil are volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG are bearish. The glass, caustic soda, and soda ash in the chemical sector are mainly volatile, and the glass FG509 is at risk of a short - term decline [3][35][39]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil is strongly bullish, and soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs are cautiously bullish. Sugar and live pigs are bearish, and the sugar SR509 is at risk of a short - term decline [4][44][51]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina turning bearish and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline, and the Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [10][11][14]. 1.2 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Tin, lithium carbonate, and nickel have the largest fluctuation space, especially lithium carbonate S2 has a 7.4% jump compared to S3, so short - term fluctuation risks need to be noted. The pivot points of copper, aluminum, and zinc are concentrated, and there is strong resistance in the R2 - R3 of international copper. Alumina, lead, and stainless steel have the weakest fluctuations. Polysilicon/industrial silicon shows non - continuous price jumps, and tin and lithium carbonate have significant breakthrough opportunities, so position management is necessary [23]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The overall signal indicator rating of the black sector is relatively stable. Rebar has turned into a bearish signal. Coking coal and coke were mainly in a volatile adjustment this week after a sharp rise last week, and the technical indicator signal is bearish next week [26][27]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Iron ore and European line container shipping had the smallest fluctuations this week. Coking coal and coke showed a stepped jump. Manganese silicon/silicon iron had the highest absolute price and dense resistance levels. The technical structure of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar but at a higher price level. The resistance interval from the pivot point to R1 of wire rods jumped by 152 yuan. The R3 resistance of coke is close to the R2 of coking coal, and the prices of the two are strongly correlated. Overall, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and coke have greater breakthrough potential, while iron ore and European line container shipping have limited fluctuation space [33]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy - chemical sector, except for asphalt showing a bullish technical indicator signal, crude oil and fuel oil have turned volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG have turned bearish. The chemical sector is mainly divided into volatile and bearish parts, with glass, caustic soda, and soda ash being mainly volatile [35][36]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Crude oil had low volatility this week. The support and resistance intervals of soda ash, glass, and urea are narrow. Para - xylene, plastics, and styrene have high prices and significant fluctuations. PVC shows a jump - up structure. Natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have dense resistance levels [40][42]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - According to the technical indicator signal summary, soybean oil, soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, among which soybean oil shows a strong bullish signal, and the others are cautiously bullish signals. Sugar and live pigs show bearish technical indicator signals [44][46]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The live pig has the most dramatic fluctuations in the support and resistance intervals (the S3 - R3 span is 2264 yuan). There are short - term interval operation opportunities in the volatile market, but position management needs to be cautious. The technical structures of soybean varieties are dense (the R3 - S3 of soybean meal is only 297 yuan), and the interval operation space is small. Corn and its by - products have the weakest fluctuations, so position management is necessary [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market remained highly active this week, with an average daily trading volume of 10.36 million lots and an average daily open interest of 11.49 million lots, showing a -11.14% and +12.58% change respectively. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively - traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options pulled back, with 44 varieties closing lower. High - volatility risks should be noted, and short - selling volatility opportunities are recommended. Attention should also be paid to the callback risks of underlying prices and the accumulation of bullish or bearish sentiment in different varieties [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 10.36 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 11.49 million lots, with a -11.14% and +12.58% change respectively. The market speculation degree was relatively high [1][8]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume included glass (1.73 million lots), soda ash (1.3 million lots), and polysilicon (0.88 million lots). Varieties with significant trading volume growth were p - xylene (+158%), red dates (+157%), and apples (+144%), while those with significant declines were tin (-88%) and synthetic rubber (-85%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.24 million lots), soda ash (1.2 million lots), and soybean meal (1.03 million lots). Varieties with rapid open - interest growth were ferrosilicon (+68%) and LPG (+60%) [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options pulled back, with 44 varieties closing lower. Varieties with high weekly declines included glass (-19.09%), lithium carbonate (-14.41%), soda ash (-12.78%), and industrial silicon (-12.60%) [2][17]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of commodity options declined from a high level this week. 34 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% percentile of the past - year history. Varieties with high implied volatility included polysilicon, lithium carbonate, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon [2][17]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The volume PCR of varieties such as staple fiber, copper, and p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The volume PCR of gold, oilseeds, and synthetic rubber was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][17]. - The open - interest PCR of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and soda ash was at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment. The open - interest PCR of nickel, LPG, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][17]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 30th week of this year (July 21 - July 27), domestic new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 239,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, with a new energy penetration rate of 53.8%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles have reached 6.16 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%, and the cumulative new energy penetration rate is 50.9% [1][117]. - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger vehicle market were 789,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 15% compared to the same period in July last year, and a 17% decrease compared to the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative retail sales have reached 6.258 million units, a year - on - year increase of 31%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles from national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 816,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 17% compared to the same period in July last year, and a 20% decrease compared to the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative wholesale volume has reached 7.264 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [1][118]. - In terms of vehicle manufacturers' July delivery volume, Leapmotor and XPeng broke monthly records, and the sales data of Hongmeng Zhixing (AITO) was also relatively good. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will consolidate the comprehensive governance results of the "involution - style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry and strengthen the management of new energy vehicle power battery recycling [2][118]. - Globally, in June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 13.3% year - on - year to 1.483 million units. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 27.0% to 7.813 million units. The new energy penetration rate in June was 27.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points. The European new energy market has clearly recovered this year due to last year's low growth and the introduction of subsidy policies this year. The US automobile market has been affected by import vehicle tariffs. Vehicle sales increased significantly in March and April, but have turned negative year - on - year since May and June. The electrification trend has reversed. In June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 119,000 units (a year - on - year decrease of 9.0%), and the penetration rate has remained in the 10% range for a long time [2][119]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Target Tracking - The report shows the weekly price changes of relevant sectors and listed companies, including BYD, SERES, Great Wall Motor, SAIC Motor, etc., and provides their closing prices and weekly price change percentages [12][15]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports in the Chinese Market**: It includes charts of China's new energy vehicle sales (seasonal), penetration rate, domestic sales (seasonal), exports (seasonal), and sales of EV and PHV models, with data sources from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Marklines [16][21][23]. - **Inventory Changes in the Chinese Market**: There are charts of monthly new inventory in new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers, with data from the East - Securities Derivatives Research Institute [24][25]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers**: Charts show the monthly delivery volumes of Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, NIO, ZEEKR, AION, VOYAH, and Deepal, with data from company announcements [27][28][32]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Charts present global new energy vehicle sales (by region), penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models, with data from Marklines [39][40][43]. - **European Market**: It includes charts of European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models in the UK, Germany, and France, with data from Marklines [44][45][49]. - **North American Market**: Charts show North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models, with data from Marklines [56][57][58]. - **Other Regions**: Charts display new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV models in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, etc., with data from Marklines [59][60][63]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - It includes charts of power battery installation volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of power battery cells, cell material cost,开工 rates and prices of ternary materials, ternary precursors, lithium iron phosphate, etc., with data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [75][77][81]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Charts show the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum, with data from Shanghai Steel Union, Longzhong Information, and Wind [99][100][102]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has completed the allocation of the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones in the third quarter of this year. The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be allocated in October [105]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen the management of new energy vehicle power battery recycling and consolidate the comprehensive governance results of the "involution - style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry [105]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger vehicle market increased by 15% year - on - year, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 31% year - on - year. It is estimated that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will be about 1.01 million units [106][107][108]. - In the 30th week (July 21 - July 27), the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 239,000 units, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.16 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7% [108]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - Changan Automobile's indirect controlling shareholder will change to China Changan Automobile [108]. - VOYAH Automobile acquired the Wuhan Yunfeng Factory for 723 million yuan [109]. - Leapmotor delivered 50,129 vehicles in July, a year - on - year increase of over 126%, and its monthly sales exceeded 50,000 for the first time [110]. - XPeng delivered 36,717 vehicles in July, a year - on - year increase of 229%, setting a new monthly delivery record [110]. - Li Auto delivered 30,731 vehicles in July, a year - on - year decrease of 39.7%, and launched its first pure - electric SUV, the Li i8 [111]. - NIO delivered 21,017 vehicles in July, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and launched the new large - sized pure - electric SUV, the LeDao L90 [111]. - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 47,752 vehicles in July [113]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - The US will impose a 15% tariff on the EU and South Korea and extend the tariff agreement with Mexico for 90 days [113]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Industry Dynamics - In June, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 13.3% year - on - year to 1.483 million units. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 27.0% to 7.813 million units [114]. 3.3.6 Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - Stellantis' adjusted operating profit in the first half of the year decreased by 94%. Its inventory at the end of June was 1.2 million vehicles, including 298,000 vehicles in the manufacturer's inventory [114][115][116]. - Mercedes - Benz's adjusted EBIT in the second quarter decreased by 50.9%, and in the first half of the year, it decreased by 40.7%. Its car and van sales also showed a downward trend [116]. 3.4 Industry Views The content is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the sales situation of new energy vehicles in China and globally, the performance of vehicle manufacturers, and the development trends of the European and US markets [117][118][119]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% since 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously being launched, and price wars are gradually being halted. - Due to severe trade protectionism in Europe and the US, which poses risks to exports, attention should be paid to new growth points such as Belt and Road countries and the Middle East. - In terms of the competitive landscape, domestic brands' market shares continue to expand. Attention should be paid to enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][120].

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trading has ended, leading to a decline in alumina futures prices. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the resumption of production and the release of new production capacity. After the end of the emotional trading, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory and weak trend [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Due to frequent rainfall in the north and the influence of the rainy season and typhoons in the south, the mining and shipping efficiency of domestic ores were affected. The shipment decline of Guinea in July will impact the supply in August, September, and October. Some mines are in the process of resuming production. The new - arrived ore during the period was 3.07 million tons, and the freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream enterprises were resistant to high prices. The domestic alumina supply remained at a high level, with a production capacity of 113.02 million tons, a running capacity of 94.75 million tons (a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 83.8% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 3.243 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from last week. The inventory structure changed due to factors such as railway freight reduction and increased shipments [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,615 tons, a decrease of 307 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On July 30, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at an FOB price of $373.7 per ton [16] - On July 30, 300 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shanxi at an ex - factory price of 3,400 yuan per ton [16] - On July 28, the winning bid price of a regular alumina tender by an aluminum plant in Xinjiang was between 3,520 - 3,580 yuan per ton, an increase of 90 - 150 yuan per ton from last week [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The data includes domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, etc., with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [17][20][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The data sources are Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [34][36][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, etc. The data sources are mainly from Aladdin and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [43][46][48]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 非农不及预期，美元转向弱势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.22%。美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.36%，欧元跌 1.34%，英镑跌 1.2%，日元 涨 0.2%，瑞郎跌 1.08%，澳元、新西兰元、比索、兰特、泰铢 均跌超 1%，金价涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司，VIX 指数升至 20.38，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 2.9%至 71.4 美元/桶。 ★市场交易逻辑 外 汇 期 货 8 月 1 日对等关税落地前美国陆续与韩国等国家达成协议，中美 关税谈判意在延期 90 天。二季度美国 GDP 增速从-0.5%反弹至 3%，好于市场预期的 2.4%，个人消费支出增速反弹至 1.4%，净 进口从一季度对美国经济的拖累转为最大增速贡献来源，同时 企业开始消化此前囤积的库存，库存投资下降，美国大而美法 案通过后，政府发债增加，三季度融资计划超 1 万亿美元，四 季度亦有 5500 亿美元的净发行计划，下半年财政支出预计对经 ...