Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.0-4.25% and indicated an additional 50 basis points of cuts may occur within the year [2][3] - The employment market is showing signs of slowing down, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, leading to a more dovish stance from the Fed [2][3] Precious Metals Industry - Following the Fed's rate cut, gold prices may face short-term pressure due to profit-taking, although the long-term investment value remains intact [3] - The Fed's continued path of rate cuts amidst economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns supports the long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against economic stagnation [3] ESG Investment Insights - ESG factors are increasingly influencing asset pricing, with improved disclosure rules in the A-share market leading to a rise in ESG report quality [4] - Empirical analysis shows that ESG factors have positive stock selection capabilities and are less correlated with traditional price-volume factors, indicating a growing pricing power for ESG in the A-share market [4] Japanese Gaming Industry - Japan's gaming industry, a pioneer with over 40 years of history, remains the third-largest market globally, with leading companies leveraging classic IPs to create resilient business models [5] - The success of Japanese gaming firms is attributed to their ability to diversify game distribution and localize operations, providing valuable lessons for Chinese companies looking to expand internationally [5] Company Spotlight: Shangmei Co., Ltd. - Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with continued expansion in product categories and brands expected to drive growth in the second half [7] - The company's operational capabilities in multi-brand and multi-category strategies have been validated, suggesting potential for further growth if these capabilities are replicated effectively [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction ESG Factor Construction and Analysis - **Factor Name**: "Final Holding of Invention Patent Quality Total Score" **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the quality of a company's innovation output, reflecting its technological barriers and commercialization potential, which can translate into future profitability and competitive advantages[38][42] **Construction Process**: The factor is derived from the total score of invention patent quality held by the company at the end of the period. It is categorized under the "business innovation" type of ESG factors[38] **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong positive stock selection ability, with high-quality patents receiving higher valuation premiums from the market[38][42] - **Factor Name**: "Wages, Bonuses, Allowances, and Subsidies" **Construction Idea**: This factor reflects a company's ability to attract and retain core talent through human capital investment, indirectly indicating employee satisfaction and productivity[39][42] **Construction Process**: The factor is based on the total expenditure on wages, bonuses, allowances, and subsidies, categorized under the "human capital" type of ESG factors[39] **Evaluation**: Companies with higher human capital investment tend to exhibit greater long-term operational stability and innovation potential[39][42] - **Factor Name**: "Equity Concentration Change Rate" **Construction Idea**: This factor captures changes in shareholder confidence, where increased concentration may indicate optimism or governance strengthening, while decreased concentration may signal disagreements or cash-out intentions[40][42] **Construction Process**: The factor measures the rate of change in equity concentration, categorized under the "shareholder" type of ESG factors[40] **Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into shareholder behavior and its implications for governance and company prospects[40][42] - **Factor Name**: "Average Age of Executives" **Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability and strategic maturity of the governance team, where younger teams may lean toward aggressive innovation, and older teams may favor steady operations[40][42] **Construction Process**: The factor calculates the average age of executives, categorized under the "governance structure" type of ESG factors[40] **Evaluation**: The factor reflects investor perceptions of decision-making reliability and governance stability[40][42] - **Factor Name**: "Total Amount of External Donations" **Construction Idea**: This factor highlights a company's commitment to social responsibility and brand image building, which can enhance trust and stakeholder relationships[41][42] **Construction Process**: The factor is based on the total monetary value of external donations, categorized under the "social capital" type of ESG factors[41] **Evaluation**: Companies with consistent and generous donations may reduce operational risks and gain potential policy support[41][42] ESG Composite Factor Construction - **Construction Idea**: The top 10/20/30 ESG factors with the highest RankIC averages are selected and combined using equal weighting or classification-based weighting methods[55] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Equal Weighting**: All selected factors are equally weighted to form the composite factor 2. **Classification Weighting**: Factors within the same secondary indicator category are first equally weighted, and then the resulting category-level factors are equally weighted to form the composite factor[55] - **Evaluation**: The composite factors exhibit robust stock selection effectiveness, with high ESG-scoring portfolios consistently outperforming low-scoring ones. The results are stable across different weighting methods[55][59] --- Backtesting Results of Factors Single Factor Backtesting Results - **"Final Holding of Invention Patent Quality Total Score"**: - RankIC Mean: 5.60% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 6.23% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -7.91% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 16.80% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 19.55%[42] - **"Wages, Bonuses, Allowances, and Subsidies"**: - RankIC Mean: 4.27% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 4.12% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -6.98% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 19.45% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 21.80%[42] - **"Equity Concentration Change Rate"**: - RankIC Mean: 2.88% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 2.18% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -4.82% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 68.05% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 62.90%[42] - **"Average Age of Executives"**: - RankIC Mean: 2.01% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 2.16% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -2.20% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 16.06% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 17.00%[42] - **"Total Amount of External Donations"**: - RankIC Mean: 1.83% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 1.17% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -0.56% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 21.33% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 22.50%[42] Composite Factor Backtesting Results - **Top 30 Equal Weight Composite Factor**: - RankIC Mean: 5.23% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 4.97% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -7.38% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 21.72% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 26.31%[55] --- Index Enhancement Strategy Results CSI 300 Index Enhancement - Annualized Excess Return: 5.75% - Information Ratio (IR): 0.76 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 14.78%[62][65] CSI 500 Index Enhancement - Annualized Excess Return: 9.11% - Information Ratio (IR): 1.68 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 9.24%[67][70] CSI 1000 Index Enhancement - Annualized Excess Return: 8.43% - Information Ratio (IR): 1.50 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 8.47%[73][75]

Group 1: FOMC Statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) - The Fed held its September FOMC meeting and cut the federal funds rate by 25bp as expected, lowering the target range to 4.0 - 4.25%. The statement emphasized rising downside risks in the job market [1]. - The dot - plot shows that most officials think there should be another 50bp cut in 2025, an increase from the June dot - plot. Among 19 officials, views on further rate adjustments vary [2]. - The Fed kept its employment and inflation expectations for the year largely unchanged compared to June but slightly raised the GDP forecast and believes in more significant rate cuts, possibly due to "political pressure." Tariffs' impact on inflation is slow and limited, and the labor market shows "low firing, low hiring" characteristics [3]. - In terms of economic indicators, GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were slightly raised; unemployment rate expectations changed little; core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were adjusted up; and interest rate expectations were significantly lowered [3][4]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference - Powell affirmed the Fed's commitment to independence and provided three ways for the public to judge that Fed decisions are based on economic prospects: policy communication logic, officials' speech content, and actual decision - making matching economic conditions [5]. - He said that the impact of tariffs on inflation has emerged and is expected to accumulate. The main reason for changes in the labor market is the significant decline in labor supply due to reduced immigration [5]. - Regarding noisy employment data, Powell said the downward revision was in line with expectations, and the data would become more reliable over time, sufficient for policy - making. The Fed also called for more resources for data collection [6][7]. Group 3: Market Performance - Most assets had priced in the rate cut, and after the meeting, some funds took profits. At the close, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields rose, international precious metal futures fell, the US dollar index rose, and US stocks had mixed results. The OIS market priced in about 44.9bp of further rate cuts in 2025 [10]. Group 4: Follow - up Policy - The Fed's policy focus has shifted to the job market. It is expected that the probability of two rate cuts this year is higher than one, and the rate cut amplitude in 2026 is still uncertain [11]. - Milan's voting behavior may challenge the Fed's independence, and Trump may value the "loyalty" of the next Fed chair. Milan's probability of being nominated for the next Fed chair increased after the meeting [12]. - Considering the potential increase in Trump's influence on the Fed after Powell's departure in 2026, the 2026 interest - rate path may face more downward risks [12]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Outlook - For US Treasuries, short - and long - term yields are at low levels, and the curve may steepen further. It is recommended to take short - term profits on US Treasuries, especially long - term ones, and consider switching to TIPS to avoid inflation risks [13]. - For US stocks, there may be short - term technical adjustments, but in the long - term, the Fed's dovish stance and AI narrative are positive. AI - related sectors and interest - sensitive sectors may perform well [14]. - The US dollar may continue to weaken. Gold's pricing of falling US Treasury yields may be sufficient, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies may rise, and Hong Kong stocks, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index, may perform better [14].

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[2] - The dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts expected within the year, raising the total anticipated cuts from 2 to 3[1][6] Economic Outlook - The Fed revised its 2025 Q4 GDP growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[5] - Core PCE inflation for 2025 remains at 3.1%, while the 2026 forecast was raised by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[5] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[5] Employment and Inflation Insights - The Fed expressed increased concerns about the labor market, noting a shift from "labor market remains robust" to "employment growth has slowed" and acknowledging rising downside risks to employment[2][3] - Inflation risks are perceived to be lower than expected, with tariffs impacting goods prices and service inflation potentially continuing to cool[3] Forward Guidance - Powell emphasized that the recent rate cut is a "risk management cut," and future rate paths will depend on incoming data[4] - The dot plot suggests a total of 5 rate cuts from 2025 to 2027, with 3 cuts anticipated in 2025 alone[4][11] Market Reactions - Financial markets experienced volatility, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields initially dropping before rising again, settling at 3.54% and 4.06% respectively[2] - The S&P 500 index showed mixed movements, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3662 per ounce[2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-dimensional Timing Model (Version 1) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates four dimensions—funding, technical, valuation, and sentiment—to provide directional views on the A-share market[1][2] - **Model Construction Process**: The model combines signals from the four dimensions to determine market timing decisions. Each dimension includes specific indicators, such as option PCR, implied volatility, and futures positions for sentiment, and Bollinger Bands and individual stock movements for technical analysis[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated strong performance in capturing upward trends while avoiding significant market volatility[2][10] 2. Model Name: Multi-dimensional Timing Model (Version 2) - **Model Construction Idea**: This version expands the original model by adding a fundamental dimension to capture bottom-buying opportunities and enriching the sentiment dimension with new indicators[1][84] - **Model Construction Process**: - The sentiment dimension was expanded to include futures basis and main funds indicators - The fundamental dimension was introduced to identify bottom signals based on macroeconomic indicators like CPI, PMI, and EPU - The model integrates five dimensions: funding, technical, valuation, sentiment, and fundamentals[84] - **Model Evaluation**: The expanded model achieved higher annualized returns and maintained similar levels of volatility and drawdown compared to the original version[85][88] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-dimensional Timing Model (Version 1) - **Annualized Return**: 24.57%[14] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.54%[14] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -28.46%[14] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.14[14] 2. Multi-dimensional Timing Model (Version 2) - **Annualized Return**: 26.69%[85] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.48%[85] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -28.46%[85] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.24[85] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Futures Basis (Sentiment Dimension) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The futures basis reflects price information in the futures market and acts as a sentiment amplifier during extreme market conditions[3][32] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Basis = Futures Price - Spot Price - Annualized basis rate is calculated to reduce the impact of contract expiration - Weighted average of the four contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, next quarter) based on open interest[32] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is suitable for mean-reversion strategies, with signals generated during overbought or oversold conditions[40] 2. Factor Name: Main Funds (Sentiment Dimension) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the flow of main funds in the stock market, reflecting high-selling and low-buying behavior[3][50] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Signals are derived from smoothed 20-day moving averages of net fund inflows and institutional active buying - Positive signals indicate buying opportunities, while negative signals suggest selling[51][54] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective for momentum strategies, with a high win rate but relatively low payoff ratio[57] 3. Factor Name: Fundamental Bottom Signal (Fundamental Dimension) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor identifies bottom-buying opportunities based on macroeconomic indicators, assuming that poor fundamentals often precede market recoveries[4][76] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Signals are triggered when CPI, PMI, and EPU simultaneously indicate weakening fundamentals - A one-quarter window after the bottom signal is used for long positions[76][83] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates high win rates and payoff ratios in bottom-buying scenarios, significantly outperforming the benchmark[83] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Futures Basis - **Annualized Return**: 19.06%[50] - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.85%[50] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -31.31%[50] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.91[50] 2. Main Funds - **Annualized Return**: 8.75%[60] - **Annualized Volatility**: 19.19%[60] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -30.57%[60] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.46[60] 3. Fundamental Bottom Signal - **Annualized Return**: 12.48%[83] - **Annualized Volatility**: 13.27%[83] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -22.62%[83] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.94[83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Agency behavior has become the core concern recently. The regulations on redemption fees in the new public - offering fund sales rules have raised concerns about bond fund redemptions, leading to declines in policy - financial bonds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and ultra - long - term government bonds. If the new rules are implemented, funds may flow back from bond funds to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies. Wealth management products and bond ETFs are relatively more advantageous. Under the re - balancing of funds, the spreads of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds preferred by bond funds may widen, while general credit bonds and ETF component bonds are relatively more advantageous, especially those with medium - short durations [1]. - In the short term, institutions are cautious, approaching the quarter - end, and the stock market remains strong. The odds of bonds have improved, but the probability of success is still not high. It is recommended to explore medium - short - duration coupon opportunities and use moderate leverage while defending. Institutions with stable liability ends should gradually increase their allocations during adjustments, with general credit bonds and ABS being better than Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - The bond market continues to be under pressure due to the shock - strengthening of the stock market and the disturbance of the new bond fund redemption fee rules, with the curve continuing to steepen. The recent strengthening of the stock market restricts bond - buying, and the new rules on bond fund redemption fees have led to large - scale bond market adjustments from September 8 - 12, with significant declines in policy - financial bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [12]. - The odds of bonds have increased, but sentiment is weak, and the probability of success is still not high. The real inflection point requires the coordination of fundamentals, the stock market, and the implementation of the new rules [15]. 2. Impact of Agency Behavior Bond Funds - Bond funds are greatly affected by the new rules. If redemption fees increase, their flexibility and cost - effectiveness will weaken significantly, leading to a decline in demand. Funds may flow back to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies. Wealth management products will have relatively more advantages, and the outsourcing of bond funds may decrease. ETFs are exempt from redemption fees (excluding over - the - counter index funds and ETF link funds), with expanded product advantages, and the "Matthew effect" in the industry may intensify. Certificate of deposit funds and money market funds that are also exempt will also benefit relatively. There is also uncertainty about the adjustment of the tax - exemption policy for public - offering funds [16]. - This shift in behavior significantly affects the demand structure of the bond market. Banks and insurance companies' self - operations prefer government bonds and local government bonds, increasing their allocation demand, while the demand for policy - financial bonds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and even 30 - year government bonds preferred by funds will shrink, and the spreads of relevant varieties will widen significantly. The proportion of trading positions in the bond market will decrease, affecting market trading activity and pricing efficiency [16]. Bond ETFs - The new rules are relatively beneficial to bond ETFs, which have developed rapidly this year and still have room for expansion in the future, bringing about the allocation demand for relevant underlying bonds. The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs was approved on September 8, and after their establishment, they are expected to bring more allocation demand. However, in the short term, the yield of relevant underlying bonds of science and technology innovation bonds has limited room for further decline, and medium - short - duration bonds can be considered for allocation during adjustments [16]. Wealth Management Products - Wealth management products are relatively more advantageous. Without the constraint of redemption fees, with a wider investment scope and better net - value drawdown control, they are more in line with individual investment preferences. If the redemption fees of bond funds increase, wealth management products may further seize market share. The outsourcing of wealth management products may also decrease. Compared with bond funds, wealth management products prefer general credit bonds with shorter durations [20]. Insurance Companies - Insurance companies may return more to their own investments. If redemption fees increase and with the implementation of I9, insurance companies may be more inclined to invest on their own. Compared with funds, insurance companies prefer to allocate ultra - long - term local government bonds and increase their allocation of medium - and high - grade credit bonds during market adjustments [20]. 3. Investment Strategies Coupon Strategy - Institutions with unstable liability ends are recommended to focus on medium - short - duration sinking allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can gradually increase their allocation of credit bonds during adjustments, initially focusing on bonds with a duration of less than 5 years, and then increasing the allocation of long - duration bonds as the uncertainties in the stock market and agency behavior become clearer. Key attention should be paid to high - quality urban investment bonds in regions with controllable credit risks and central and state - owned enterprises in stable industries such as power, transportation, and non - ferrous metals [23]. Variety Selection - Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are greatly affected by the new bond market redemption fee rules. If the policy is implemented, their variety premiums may be re - evaluated. It is recommended to shorten the duration recently. Trading institutions can focus on trading opportunities brought about by over - adjustments but should also enter and exit quickly within 5 years. Institutions with stable liability ends such as insurance companies can build positions in an inverted - pyramid manner during adjustments. The return of bond - allocation funds to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies is beneficial to the investment in high - grade ABS, which still has a certain variety spread and can continue to be allocated in medium - and high - grade bonds. Private perpetual bonds need to guard against liquidity and valuation disturbances caused by increased redemption pressure, especially those with medium - long durations [26]. Leverage - The interest - rate spread has widened with market adjustments. The liquidity situation may continue to be neutral and loose, and with the expectation of the central bank's purchase of government bonds rising, moderate leverage can be used to increase returns. However, attention should be paid to liquidity disturbances near the quarter - end [26]. Duration - Continue to focus on medium - short - duration defense. Wait for the uncertainties in the stock market and agency behavior to become clear before looking for opportunities for the bond market to rebound and extend the duration. Currently, the market sentiment is still cautious, and there may still be adjustment risks in the medium - and long - ends due to factors such as bond fund redemptions and wealth management product redemptions at the quarter - end [26]. 4. Specific Bond Types Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - If the new bond fund redemption fee rules are implemented, it may lead to a re - pricing of the spreads of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. As of mid - 2025, bond funds held a total of 2.53 trillion yuan of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, accounting for 35% of the outstanding scale. If banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products redeem half of their bond funds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds will bear the brunt due to their good liquidity. Theoretically, it may drive the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds up by 9 - 10BP [2][47]. - After over - adjustments, positive factors include the allocation demand from insurance companies, wealth management products, and annuities. However, compared with bond funds, insurance companies prefer medium - long - duration, medium - high - grade Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, with a higher preference for Tier 2 capital bonds than bank perpetual bonds. Wealth management products may have more demand for general credit bonds. Annuities may prefer new bonds after the new VAT rules [52]. - Recently, caution is recommended for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. The duration should be appropriately shortened. Trading institutions can focus on trading opportunities brought about by over - adjustments but should also enter and exit quickly within 5 years. Institutions with stable liability ends such as insurance companies can build positions in an inverted - pyramid manner during adjustments [52]. Urban Investment Bonds - In August 2025, urban investment bonds continued the net - repayment trend, but the net - repayment amount decreased compared with the same period last year and the previous month. The registration and review situation showed that the amount of urban investment bonds registered by the association increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the amount of urban investment bonds whose review was terminated by the exchange decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [81]. - Since this year, debt - resolution resources have become more abundant. As of September 5, 2025, the planned issuance scale of "special bonds for replacing hidden debts" was 1.95 trillion yuan, and 109.85 billion yuan of "special new - issue special bonds" had been issued. Eight provinces had allocated 171.5 billion yuan of special bonds to repay local arrears [86][87][89]. - The yield of urban investment bonds has been rising, with short - end varieties performing better than long - end ones. Since mid - August 2025, affected by the strong stock market and the new bond fund redemption fee rules, the yield of urban investment bonds has generally increased, with the spreads of AAA and AA + rated bonds with a duration of less than 2 years slightly decreasing by about 1BP, while the yields of long - end bonds mostly increasing by more than 10BP [99]. - In the short term, it is recommended to look for opportunities while defending, and the short - duration sinking strategy may be relatively better. Institutions with stable liability ends can gradually participate in the allocation opportunities of medium - long - duration bonds of high - grade issuers. Sinking can focus on regions with controllable credit risks and high coupons, and control the duration within 3 years [103]. Industrial Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the revenue and profits of industrial bond - issuing entities decreased year - on - year, but the operating cash flow improved year - on - year. There was significant profit differentiation among industries. Industries such as home appliances, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, machinery, and power had profit growth and high ROE. Industries such as steel and cement benefited from anti - involution policies, with product prices rising and profits slightly recovering from a low base. The real estate, light manufacturing, and construction industries remained sluggish, and the profits of the coal industry further declined [4]. - The fundamentals of industrial bonds are weakly recovering, and with increased market disturbances, it is recommended to mainly allocate state - owned enterprise bonds with medium - short durations and moderately sink to explore local state - owned enterprises and leading private enterprises in stable industries such as non - ferrous metals, transportation, power, and new energy. For real estate bonds, the incremental policies are yet to be observed, and the valuation risks may still rise. It is recommended to mainly allocate state - owned enterprise bonds with a duration of about 1 year and medium - high grades, and pay attention to the sales trends in September - October and the statements of real estate - stabilizing policies [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of HKD 396.00 [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Recent stock price corrections of Pop Mart, which have dropped nearly 25% from the August 26 high, are primarily driven by market concerns over the decline in second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the report argues that second-hand prices are not a reasonable measure of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve a successful path of "artistic equity," which lays a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth. The report suggests that investors should actively seize the opportunity to position themselves for future gains [2][3]. Summary by Sections Second-Hand Price Fluctuations and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the second-hand prices of Labubu are attributed to increased supply rather than changes in demand. The report highlights that the second-hand prices of products unaffected by capacity changes, such as Labubu blind box figures, have remained stable or increased, indicating strong IP popularity [3][12]. - Pop Mart's unique brand positioning and supply control in the artist IP toy market provide it with a competitive edge, reducing the likelihood of new entrants causing supply excess and price instability [3][14]. New Product Launches and Pricing Strategies - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America. The company demonstrates flexibility in pricing strategies, allowing for differentiated pricing across various IPs and series [4][5]. - The upcoming Q3 earnings report is anticipated to reflect positive impacts from new product releases and the holiday season, with expectations for continued high growth in Q4 [4][5]. Long-Term Growth Drivers - The report outlines several growth drivers for Pop Mart's performance through 2026, including rapid capacity expansion in plush toys, a diverse range of new product categories, and the potential for significant revenue growth from major IPs like The Monsters [5][23]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its store presence, particularly overseas, which will enhance brand influence and customer acquisition [5][23]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 116 billion, RMB 170 billion, and RMB 220 billion, respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 14% for 2025 [6][9]. - The target price is set at HKD 396, based on a PE ratio of 42x for 2025, which is higher than the average PE of comparable companies [6][33]. Unique Business Model and Market Position - Pop Mart's unique business model, characterized by strong control over the entire industry chain, allows for both IP innovation and product category innovation, reinforcing its market position [31][34]. - The establishment of a global fan ecosystem enhances the company's ability to transmit heat across regions and IPs, further solidifying its competitive advantage [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.22 [9][10]. Core Views - The company has reached a strategic financing agreement with Wujing Capital to raise approximately USD 700 million, aimed at strengthening capital reserves, developing new growth areas in silane, and optimizing the capital structure [3][4]. - The financing will support the acquisition and restructuring of outdated industry capacities, guiding the industry towards sustainable development while enhancing the company's first-mover advantage in silane [3][5]. - The company is expected to see a steady increase in market share due to significant cost and energy consumption advantages in granular silicon production, alongside favorable supply-side policies and industry self-discipline [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financing and Strategic Goals - The company announced a strategic financing agreement with Wujing Capital, raising approximately HKD 5.446 billion (USD 700 million) through a private placement of about 4.736 billion shares at HKD 1.15 per share, which represents a 14.26% increase in total share capital [4][5]. - The funds will be allocated to three main areas: 1) Capital reserves for supply-side reforms, 2) Strengthening the second curve of silane gas production for overseas substitution, and 3) Optimizing the capital structure to replenish working capital and repay existing loans [5]. Market Outlook and Industry Dynamics - Silicon material is a core component in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations for supply-side optimization in Q4, leading to potential price increases due to energy consumption controls and market-driven production cuts [6]. - The report highlights that the company’s granular silicon products are expected to improve in quality and maintain significant cost advantages, which will likely enhance its market position [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB -2.304 billion, RMB 1.276 billion, and RMB 2.140 billion respectively, with a target PE ratio of 45x for 2026, leading to a target price of HKD 2.22 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the service consumption sector, including Gu Ming, Mi Xue, Cha Bai Dao, Xiao Cai Yuan, Da Shi, and others [7][8]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to boost the service sector, particularly in areas such as cultural tourism, IP consumption, and elderly care [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in China's service consumption, with the current contribution of service industry value added to GDP at 57%, compared to around 70% in developed countries, indicating room for expansion [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality service supply and the integration of new technologies and business models to enhance the service sector [1][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The report outlines five key areas with 19 specific measures to promote service consumption, including the cultivation of service consumption platforms and the enhancement of high-quality service supply [3][4]. - Specific initiatives include optimizing cultural product offerings, extending operating hours for tourist attractions, and promoting long-term care insurance [3]. Market Performance - As of August 2025, retail and catering revenue reached 449.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [4]. - Domestic travel during the first half of 2025 saw 3.285 billion trips, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with spending reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [4]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with growth potential and strong market positions, such as Gu Ming, Mi Xue, and others, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry consolidation [5][8]. - Specific companies highlighted for their growth potential include Gu Ming (1364 HK), Mi Xue Group (2097 HK), and others, with target prices set for each [8][12]. Financial Performance - Gu Ming reported a 34.4% year-on-year increase in GMV to 14.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.625 billion yuan, reflecting a 121.5% increase [13]. - Mi Xue Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 14.87 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan, up 42.9% [15]. Growth Outlook - The report anticipates that as the new measures are implemented, the service sector will experience a surge in high-quality supply and innovative business models, driving domestic demand growth [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry, indicating an expectation that the industry stock index will outperform the benchmark [2][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous support from policies aimed at enhancing the media and cultural industries, which is expected to enrich the supply side and boost specific segments within the industry [5][8]. - Key measures include promoting cross-industry collaboration in the IP sector, supporting high-quality content creation in literature, arts, film, and animation, and enhancing the vitality of cultural venues to stimulate offline entertainment consumption [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections IP Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of IP development, advocating for cross-industry collaborations and the creation of new consumption scenarios that integrate travel, culture, and sports [5]. - It suggests that the support for IP construction will likely drive growth in the cultural tourism, retail, and derivative product sectors, enhancing the monetization potential of IP [5]. Film and Gaming - The report notes that the policy direction favors the production of high-quality content in the gaming industry, encouraging companies to invest more in culturally rich content [6]. - It also highlights the potential for traditional cultural IP to inspire new creative works in film and gaming, promoting innovative development [6]. Offline Entertainment - The report discusses measures to enhance the appeal of cultural venues, such as extending operating hours and optimizing reservation systems, which are expected to attract more visitors [7]. - It anticipates that the introduction of international sports events and support for local sports activities will boost offline entertainment consumption, including ticket sales and related merchandise [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies within the industry that are well-positioned to benefit from these policy measures, including those involved in IP, film and gaming, and live performances [8].