Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing three-year delay of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the focus on post-war benefit distribution, particularly the attitudes of Europe and the United States towards compensation claims [3][4] - The U.S. has proposed a $500 billion mineral cooperation agreement with Ukraine, although the exact amount of rare earth resources in Ukraine is uncertain. However, Ukraine's rich mineral resources may serve as leverage for further U.S. aid [3][16] - The report suggests that the recent U.S.-Ukraine mineral cooperation agreement may have a limited marginal impact on the supply-demand dynamics of various metals, and the distribution of Ukraine's mineral resources will significantly affect the reshaping of the European supply chain if the conflict gradually resolves [3] Summary by Sections Section: U.S. Aid to Ukraine - Since the outbreak of the conflict, the U.S. has provided a total of $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, with a commitment of $128 billion in total aid, including $53.76 billion in economic aid, $3.7 billion in humanitarian aid, and $70.56 billion in military aid [10][9] - The actual delivered aid amounts to $122.8 billion, comprising $50.1 billion in economic aid, $3.68 billion in humanitarian aid, and $69 billion in military aid [10] Section: Ukraine's Mineral Resources - Ukraine possesses significant mineral resources, including iron ore (650 million tons), titanium ore (590 million tons), and natural graphite (970 million tons), which account for 3.25%, 1.16%, and 3.34% of global reserves, respectively [13][15] - The main mineral-rich areas in Ukraine include the Kryvyi Rih-Zaporizhia iron ore belt and the Donbas coal mining area, with central and eastern Ukraine having a relative advantage in mineral resources [15] Section: Rare Earth Resources - The proposed $500 billion rare earth resource cooperation agreement with the U.S. is met with skepticism, as Ukraine is not a major global producer of rare earth elements [16][17] - The Ukrainian government has approved a framework for joint development of mineral resources with the U.S., which includes establishing a reconstruction investment fund [16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The recruitment industry is experiencing a seasonal impact due to the Lunar New Year, with job position growth rates affected. The traditional off-peak season in November-December saw a narrowing decline, and the subsequent employment market's recovery remains to be observed [1][2] - On a macro level, the urban survey unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.2% in January 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The labor survey unemployment rates for different age groups (16-24 years, 25-29 years, and 30-59 years) were 16.1%, 6.9%, and 4.0%, respectively, with slight increases [1][2] - The micro-level data indicates a growth in the number of newly recruited companies, reflecting confidence in the market. In January 2025, the number of new recruitment companies increased by 19% year-on-year, while the number of new job postings decreased by 20%, indicating a divergence that may signal a recovery in confidence among small and medium enterprises [2] Summary by Sections Recruitment Data - In January 2025, 20 out of 81 sub-industries saw an increase in job positions month-on-month, compared to 44 in December. The consumer services sector, particularly home services and group buying/takeout, showed significant year-on-year growth, while industries like wedding photography and coal experienced declines [3][12] - The BOSS Zhipin platform reported a strong growth in monthly active users (MAU), reaching approximately 58 million in Q3 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 25%, and 30% for Q1, Q2, and Q3, respectively [4][17] Industry Analysis - The recruitment industry is likely to continue bottoming out, with a clear turning point still to be observed. The seasonal impact of the Lunar New Year traditionally leads to a slowdown in recruitment activities, and the overall job market performance in January was relatively stable despite the seasonal effects [1][3] - The data from Datayes indicates that the number of new recruitment companies increased by 19% year-on-year in January, while the number of new job postings decreased by 20%, suggesting a potential recovery in confidence among employers [2][14]

分析师：李超 / 林成炜 >>《美国优先投资政策》使用多种现存法律和行政手段限制美国对华投资 2025年2月21日，特朗普颁布备忘录《美国优先投资政策》，重点限制中美双边投 资。 研究助理：汤子玉 来源：浙商证券宏观研究团队 具体参见2025年2月27日报告《如何理解美国优先投资？—— 特朗普新政系列十》，如 需报告全文或数据底稿，请联系团队成员或对口销售。 全文约4200字，阅读大约需要10分钟 核 心 观 点 《美国优先投资政策》重点限制美国对华投资，一是强化现存法律和行政手段限制美 国对华投资；二是进一步扩大对华投资限制，包括重点科技行业和上市企业。《美国 优先投资政策》考虑在半导体、人工智能、量子计算、生物技术、高超音速、航空航 天、先进制造、定向能（例如激光武器）以及中国国家军民融合战略涉及的其他领域 加大投资限制，此外，新政策明确提到考虑纳入公开交易证券，可能通过扩充"中国 军工复合企业清单（NS-CMIC LIST）"等手段迫使重点行业中概股退市；三是可 能停止《中美所得税公约》，对中国使用美国专利，中国赴美投资有更不利的影响。 同时《美国优先投资政策》也强调强化美国外国投资委员会功能，限制中国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - In 2024, Hong Kong Exchanges achieved a revenue of HK$22.374 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HK$13.050 billion, up 10% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit increase of 46% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher trading volumes in the spot and derivatives markets as well as increased investment income [1][4] - The report highlights a notable improvement in trading volumes, particularly in the spot market, where the average daily trading volume increased by 26% year-on-year. The stock connect programs also saw significant growth, with daily trading volumes increasing by 55% and 39% for Hong Kong and mainland China respectively [2] - The report projects a net profit growth of 10% for 2024, benefiting from increased trading volumes and investment income, with expected net profit growth rates of 20%, 10%, and 10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business lines showed a year-on-year growth of 15% for the spot market, a decline of 5% for derivatives, a growth of 27% for commodities, 3% for data and connectivity, and 15% for company projects [1] - Revenue from trading and trading system usage fees grew by 18%, while listing fees decreased by 3%. Settlement and clearing fees increased by 21% [1] Trading Activity - The report notes that the trading activity in the derivatives market improved, with a slight revenue increase of 2% in 2024. The trading income from structured products also saw a 3% increase, a significant recovery compared to a 10% decline in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The commodities market remained active, with trading fees from LME and LME Clear increasing by 33% and 30% respectively, attributed to an 18% rise in average daily trading volumes [2] Fundraising and Listings - In 2024, the number of new listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 71, a decrease of 2 from 2023, but the total fundraising amount increased by 90%, primarily due to the listing of Midea Group, which was the largest IPO in Hong Kong since February 2021 [3] - The report also mentions that the number of new derivative warrants and structured products listed increased by 43% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates an expected EPS of HK$12.40, HK$13.62, and HK$14.94, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29, 27, and 24 times respectively. The target price for 2025 is set at HK$471.01, based on a 38 times P/E ratio [4][11]

- The report emphasizes that index investment should focus on allocation rather than rotation, and excess returns should come from alpha rather than style or industry[1][2] - The necessity and effectiveness of index risk management are highlighted, suggesting neutralizing signals to remove existing risk factors and constraining specific dimensions' deviation from the benchmark[3] - An index configuration portfolio targeting information ratio (IR) achieved an annualized excess return of 11.25%, an IR of 2.28, a Calmar ratio of 4.10, and a monthly win rate of 73% from 2015 to 2024[4][10] - The report discusses the construction of an index risk control model, which includes determining the list of indices to be included and the risk factors to be used[53] - The index risk control model's effectiveness is significantly higher than that of individual stock models, with industry contributions greatly exceeding style contributions[55][58] - The report suggests that the index risk control model should be used to constrain active risk while pursuing alpha returns, with the goal of maximizing the information ratio[60] - The report outlines the process of constructing an index configuration portfolio, including signal selection, synthesis, and combination optimization[71] - The optimized portfolio reduced the maximum drawdown from 8.30% to 4.55% and improved the IR and Calmar ratio, with a tracking error of 4.93%[72][73]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company, Jiechang Drive, is a leader in linear drives in China, with a stable main business and a new growth curve opened by humanoid robots [1][2] - The linear drive business is in a market worth billions, with global expansion and product diversification contributing to steady growth [2][3] - The humanoid robot segment is projected to reach a market size of approximately 56.8 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 35% from 2023 to 2030 [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Traditional Main Business - Jiechang Drive is the leading domestic player in linear drives, serving sectors such as office, medical, home, and industrial applications. From 2019 to 2023, the revenue CAGR was 21%, while the net profit CAGR was -7%, with a geometric ROE of 9% [1] Second Growth Curve - The company has established a humanoid research team and formed a joint venture, Zhejiang Lingjie Robot, holding 43% of the shares, focusing on key components like dexterous hands and joint modules, thus opening new growth opportunities [1][3] Linear Drive Business - The global market for linear drive products in smart offices reached 3.55 billion USD in 2022, with a CAGR of 7% from 2019 to 2022. The company benefits from trends such as the return to offline work and an emphasis on healthy office environments [2] Humanoid Robot Market - The strategic partnership with Lingqiao Intelligent aims to develop core components for humanoid robots, with the first product, DexHand, featuring 19 degrees of freedom and 23 sensors, entering mass production [3][12] - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of 100 billion yuan if demand continues to rise [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 339 million, 508 million, and 637 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 49, 32, and 26 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [2] Core Insights - JD Logistics has turned profitable in 2023 with an adjusted net profit of 2.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 218.8%, and achieved a record high adjusted profit margin of 5.8% in Q3 2024 [6][31] - The integrated supply chain logistics industry is expected to continue consolidating, with JD Logistics poised to increase its order volume through integration with the Taotian platform [6][8] - The company has established a highly coordinated network comprising six major components: warehousing, comprehensive transportation, last-mile delivery, large items, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics [17][41] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - JD Logistics was established in 2007 as an internal logistics department of JD Group and began serving external customers in 2017, becoming a leader in integrated supply chain services [17][18] - The company has significantly expanded its external customer base, with external revenue exceeding 50% since 2021 [19][25] 2. Market Dynamics - The integrated supply chain logistics market in China reached 2,026 billion RMB in 2020 and is projected to grow to 3,190 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% [6] - JD Logistics ranks as the fifth largest integrated logistics service provider globally and second in China, capturing approximately 1.7% of the third-party logistics spending in 2023 [6] 3. Business Growth and Efficiency - The company has seen significant growth in its business volume, with a notable increase in warehouse efficiency and revenue per square meter from 3,494 RMB in 2020 to 5,207 RMB in 2023 [6][41] - The integration of technology, including cloud computing and AI, has enhanced operational efficiency and positioned JD Logistics as a technology-driven logistics service provider [6][41] 4. Financial Projections - JD Logistics is expected to achieve net profits of 6.53 billion RMB, 7.73 billion RMB, and 8.95 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.9, 11.8, and 10.2 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][5][11] Core Insights - The company has established a joint venture with Suzhou Ishikawa to enhance its casting capabilities for differential housings and other components, with a total investment of RMB 200 million [1][2] - The company is expanding its planetary gearbox business based on process and customer synergies, with an initial investment of RMB 1 billion for its smart manufacturing core components project, focusing on parts for new energy vehicles and high-precision industrial gearboxes [2] - The company is actively positioning itself in the humanoid robot sector, where planetary gearboxes are expected to have significant applications due to their cost advantages and strong impact resistance [2] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is RMB 24.06 billion, RMB 30.08 billion, and RMB 36.45 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 23.7%, 25.0%, and 21.2% respectively [3][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is RMB 3.25 billion, RMB 4.19 billion, and RMB 5.09 billion, with year-over-year growth of 78.5%, 28.9%, and 21.6% respectively [3][5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.51, RMB 0.65, and RMB 0.79 for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 36.2, 28.1, and 23.1 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report presents a unique perspective, suggesting that both the smart controller and humanoid robot core components have significant growth potential, contrary to the common belief that the company's growth space is limited [2] - The company is transitioning from being perceived solely as a smart controller manufacturer to developing its own complete systems, supported by consistent R&D investment [3] - The report highlights the expected growth in the smart controller market, with a projected CAGR of 13% over the next five years, and significant opportunities in the humanoid robot sector, estimating a market space of approximately 305 billion yuan by 2030 [2][3] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 8,992 million yuan in 2023 to 14,273 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 17.8% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 516 million yuan in 2023 to 1,085 million yuan in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 37% in 2024 [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.4 yuan in 2023 to 0.9 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report anticipates net profits of 706 million yuan, 903 million yuan, and 1,085 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31, 24, and 20 [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a revaluation as it transitions from a component supplier to a complete system provider, leveraging its deep technological foundation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, achieving 8.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.03%, and a net profit of 956 million yuan, down 10.78% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to challenges in the pharmaceutical commercial sector, but improvements are expected in 2025 due to the normalization of product shipments and synergies with China Resources Sanjiu [7][8]. - The company is advancing its innovation and research capabilities, with a pipeline of 98 products under development, including 33 innovative drugs. The acquisition by China Resources Sanjiu is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge and innovation capabilities [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024: Revenue of 8.498 billion yuan, net profit of 956 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 8.994 billion yuan, net profit of 1.099 billion yuan (up 14.97%) - 2026E: Revenue of 9.959 billion yuan, net profit of 1.336 billion yuan (up 21.61%) - 2027E: Revenue of 10.945 billion yuan, net profit of 1.561 billion yuan (up 16.85%) [3][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts: - 2024: 0.64 yuan - 2025E: 0.74 yuan - 2026E: 0.89 yuan - 2027E: 1.04 yuan [3][8]. Operational Insights - The pharmaceutical industrial segment achieved revenue of 7.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.06%, while the pharmaceutical commercial segment saw a significant decline of 26.39% [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 67.14%, with a net profit margin of 10.11% [8]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition by China Resources Sanjiu has received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which is expected to enhance the company's management, marketing, and policy resources, thereby improving its competitive position [7][8].