Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company expresses a commitment to progress despite challenges in the environment, with an expectation of increased dividends [7]. - The company aims to balance volume and price, with strong performance in the banquet market and a focus on innovative marketing strategies [7]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 at 8.59, 9.02, and 9.44 CNY, respectively [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 83,272 million CNY in 2023 to 102,105 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 5% [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 42,004 million CNY in 2023 to 50,870 million CNY in 2027, maintaining a growth rate of around 5% [2][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 30,211 million CNY in 2023 to 36,661 million CNY in 2027, with a consistent growth rate of 5% [8][13]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected PE ratio decreasing from 15.4 in 2023 to 12.7 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation attractiveness [14]. - The company maintains a healthy ROE of 22.1% as of the latest data, indicating strong profitability [3][14]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to remain low, around 23.3% in 2023, reflecting a solid financial position [3][14].

Economic Data and Industry Trends - Economic data in May showed a slowdown, with industrial production growth at 5.8%, down from 6.1% in April, indicating a need to focus on industries with marginal changes in structure [5][8][21] - Investment growth in infrastructure and manufacturing has also slowed, with fixed asset investment growth narrowing to 3.7% in May, while real estate investment saw a decline of 10.7% [11][21] Industry Performance Insights - Industries expected to see improved performance in Q2 include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), particularly in semiconductors, optical electronics, and consumer electronics, driven by a recovery in consumer demand and ongoing domestic substitution [4][28] - The midstream manufacturing sector, including automotive and automation equipment, is also projected to experience improved profitability due to a recovery in industry sentiment [4][28] - Consumer services, particularly in food processing, beverages, and home appliances, are expected to maintain double-digit growth, supported by consumption policies and holiday promotions [4][28] Contract Liabilities and Profitability - Industries with rising contract liabilities are likely to see sustainable growth, with significant increases noted in midstream manufacturing and information technology sectors [6][25] - The report highlights that contract liabilities in sectors such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and defense industries have shown positive growth, indicating a robust outlook for these sectors [6][25] Export Trends - Exports in May showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with strong performance in sectors less reliant on the US market, such as automobiles and integrated circuits, while imports continued to decline [17][19] - The report notes that the export growth for automobiles and integrated circuits is particularly strong, reflecting a shift in demand dynamics [19][20] Consumer Spending Patterns - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in essential consumer goods, driven by promotional events and policy support [14][15] - The report indicates that categories such as home appliances and communication equipment have seen substantial growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% in May [15][16] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the A-share market remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and a lack of clear investment direction, despite some sectors showing resilience [4][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and industry performance to identify potential investment opportunities in the current market environment [4][21]

汽车行业周报 江汽与华为签署合作协议，理想 i6 预计 9 月上市 中游制造/汽车 6 月 15 日至 6 月 21 日，汽车行业整体下跌-2.6%。本周，江汽集团与华为技术 有限公司在合肥签署战略合作协议，根据协议，双方将在现有良好的合作背景 下，进一步推动华为智能汽车解决方案在江汽集团车型平台上搭载应用，包括 但不限于辅助智能驾驶、智能座舱、智能车控、智能车云、智能车载光、车载 通讯等产品领域。此外，新车方面，小米 YU7 将于 6 月底发布，理想 i6 纯电 SUV 预计 9 月上市。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车-2.6%。本周（6 月 15 日至 6 月 21 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌幅 为-0.5%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-1.6%，创业板涨跌幅为-1.7%。本周各行业板 块部分上涨，其中涨幅居前的行业板块为 CS 银行（+3.1%）、CS 综合金融 （+1.8%）和 CS 通信（+1.4%），跌幅居前的板块为 CS 医药（-4.2%）、 CS 纺织服装（-4.1%）和 CS 商贸零售（-4.1%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：本周，业二级板块全面下跌，其中乘用车和商用车 板块跌幅较小，周跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (科创板), emphasizing its role as a "testing ground" for capital market innovations and the introduction of the "1+6" policy measures aimed at enhancing the integration of technology and industry [2][8]. - The introduction of the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies is expected to attract a new wave of strategic emerging industry enterprises, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, thereby increasing the technological content of the capital market [3][8]. - A pre-IPO review mechanism for high-quality tech companies is proposed to better protect corporate information and technology security, drawing parallels with successful practices in foreign markets [4][8]. - The report anticipates an influx of capital into quality tech enterprises through the expansion of investment products and risk management tools on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which will enhance value discovery efficiency [5][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, noting that as of June 20, 37 companies have applied for listing under the fifth standard, with a concentration in the biopharmaceutical sector [3][8]. Section 2: Policy Measures - The "1+6" policy includes setting up a growth layer on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, reintroducing the fifth standard for unprofitable companies, and expanding the standard's applicability to more frontier technology sectors [8]. Section 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 577.64 billion, with a circulating market value of about 552.86 billion [5][8]. Section 4: Performance Metrics - The report provides performance metrics, showing a 36.8% absolute performance over 12 months, indicating strong growth potential compared to the benchmark [7][8]. Section 5: Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities and CICC, which are well-positioned to benefit from the reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The management team is stable, and a performance culture is enhancing employee execution capabilities. The company emphasizes a self-driven approach during external fluctuations, viewing them as opportunities for growth [7] - The North China market is performing exceptionally well, with a significant increase in the number of distribution stores. The company plans to expand its market share through key projects and a robust distribution strategy [7] - Marketing strategies focus on emotional connections with consumers, with plans to introduce low-alcohol products and enhance new retail channels [7] - The company is committed to strict inventory control and cautious, sustained investment in brand building and channel expansion [7] - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.87, 3.02, and 3.21, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14x for 2025 [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,953 million in 2023 to 5,810 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 4% [2][15] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,698 million in 2023 to 2,120 million in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trend [2][15] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,269 million in 2023 to 1,563 million in 2027, with a consistent growth rate [2][15] - The company’s current share price is 41.02 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20 billion yuan [3][3] Key Financial Ratios - The projected ROE is expected to decline from 32.3% in 2023 to 20.9% in 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in return on equity [16] - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 47.8% in 2023 to 34.3% in 2027, suggesting improved financial stability [16] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 25.6% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the emerging consumer attributes of the gaming industry, highlighting that gaming and media are among the best new consumption sectors, as they provide joy and passion without engaging in price wars [1][2] - The gaming industry has seen a significant increase in revenue, with Giant Network's new game "Original Journey" achieving a contract liability growth of 20.13% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [2] - The report notes that the media industry has performed well, with a 1.38% increase in the past week and a 9.47% increase year-to-date, ranking it fourth among all sectors [1][11] Group 2 - The gaming sector is experiencing a resurgence in user engagement, with "Ball Battle" achieving record-high monthly revenue and user retention rates, while "Super Sus" continues to expand its market presence [2][30] - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in gaming, with collaborations between Giant Network and Alibaba Cloud focusing on enhancing gaming experiences through AI technology [7] - The report indicates that the cultural export of Chinese media is just beginning, with various successful projects like "Nezha 2" and "Genshin Impact" marking the rise of China's cultural soft power [1][2] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of the film and television sectors, noting that the top films in the box office are predominantly Chinese, reflecting a strong domestic market [18][19] - The television drama "潜渊" has achieved the highest ratings on Hunan TV, indicating a competitive landscape in the television sector [22] - The report also highlights the top-performing online variety shows, with "哈哈哈哈哈哈第五季" leading the rankings, showcasing the popularity of online content [29] Group 4 - The gaming market is dominated by Tencent, with five of its games in the top ten of the iOS sales rankings, underscoring its strong market position [30] - The report mentions the significant growth in the book sector, with various titles achieving high sales, indicating a robust literary market [33]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 19 日 平淡 FOMC 之外的两条线索 —6 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 6 月 18 日，美联储召开议息会议，维持联邦基金目标 利率区 4.25%-4.50%不变，缩表节奏保持不变。 总体来看，本次会议增量信息较少，会议声明和演讲稿绝大多数措辞延续 5 月 的内容，答记者问鲍威尔多次暗示美联储将在通胀充分反映关税后再做决策， 结合 SEP 下调增长预期、上调通胀和失业率预期，美联储对滞胀风险的前瞻 判断是迟迟不肯降息的原因。由于点阵图仍给出年内两次降息预期，但美联储 内部分歧较大。往后看，中东局势和关税同时升级的概率不高，若中东局势继 续升级推高油价带动非核心通胀上升，则关税政策将进一步缓和且缓解核心通 胀压力，年内降息确属大概率，变数在于降息次数是否符合两次的预期。 资产方面，若美国对非美关税豁免延长，叠加财政法案仍在积极推进，下半年 美股仍看新高。由于 7 月会议可获得的增量数据依然较少，货币政策可能不是 未来一段时间资产定价的重心，直到 8 月下旬全球央行会议和 9 月中旬议息会 议。关注两条线索： 第一，中 ...

Group 1: Overall Economic Trends - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, indicating the continued effect of consumption expansion policies [1][13][20] - The cumulative retail sales from January to May reached 20.3171 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up from 4.7% in the previous period [1][13] - The growth in essential consumption categories improved, driven by holiday demand and promotional activities, with food and beverage retail sales showing significant increases [1][17][20] Group 2: Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both declined, while the DXI Index increased by 7.77% [1][23] - The price of DDR4 DRAM memory rose by 25.11% week-on-week, with the 8GB DDR4 DRAM priced at $4.28 [1][26] - The production of integrated circuits showed a rolling year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor sector [1][23][26] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector - The production of industrial robots saw a rolling year-on-year increase, while sales of major engineering machinery companies mostly slowed down [1][3] - The price index for photovoltaic products decreased week-on-week, but the production of solar cells showed a rolling year-on-year increase [1][3][22] - The automotive production and sales growth rates have narrowed, indicating a potential slowdown in the automotive sector [1][3][22] Group 4: Consumer Demand - Retail sales in the home appliance sector continued to recover, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with significant increases in sales of communication equipment [1][20] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry maintained a high growth rate, benefiting from demand for value preservation amid rising gold prices [1][21] - The average price of fresh milk and sugar has decreased, while the average price of live pigs has increased, reflecting mixed trends in agricultural products [1][3][21] Group 5: Resource Sector - The price of Brent crude oil increased, while the prices of various chemical products mostly rose, indicating a positive trend in the resource sector [1][22] - The inventory levels of industrial metals showed mixed trends, with most inventories declining, suggesting a tightening supply [1][22] - The national cement price index increased, reflecting a recovery in construction-related materials [1][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly economic index rebounded. The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index of WEI decreased, while the demand sub - index and the supply - demand gap increased [1]. - Production declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly, while the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased [1]. - High - frequency infrastructure indicators declined. The cement shipping rate and cement mill operating rate decreased, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased [1]. - The decline in commercial housing sales narrowed. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved, but the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased [2]. - Consumption rebounded. The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also increased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers decreased [2]. - Exports rebounded. South Korea's export year - on - year in early June increased, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also improved [2]. - Pork prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork decreased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased [3]. - Industrial product prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index and Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price, and cement price index decreased [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the WEI demand sub - index was 5.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the supply - demand gap was 1.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 6.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was - 2.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 41.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 39.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The asphalt plant operating rate was 31.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 4.7%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 10.2%, down 11.5 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars was 19.0%, up 13.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 21.2%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early June was 5.4%, up 5.3 percentage points from late May. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 35.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 18.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was - 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 9.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.6%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 11.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Brent crude oil spot price was - 16.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price was - 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price was - 30.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 1.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous value [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in May, credit data was primarily contributed by the government, while the performance in the household and corporate sectors was relatively flat. The M1 money supply grew by 2.3% year-on-year, mainly due to a low base from the previous year [4][12]. - The report highlights that the issuance of government bonds has accelerated, aligning with the government's directive to implement policies promptly. It is anticipated that with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, social financing (社融) is likely to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short term [4][12]. - The report notes that the financing balance has increased, with net financing purchases amounting to 80.2 billion yuan, while ETF saw a net outflow of 149.4 billion yuan. The overall market financing balance reached 1,804.43 billion yuan as of June 13 [4][26]. Group 2 - In terms of market sentiment, the report indicates that the trading activity of financing funds has increased, with the equity risk premium declining. The focus has shifted towards style indices and major sectors such as the North Certificate 50, consumer discretionary, and TMT [4][35]. - The report identifies that the sectors with the highest net inflows of various funds include food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, and media. Conversely, the sectors with significant net outflows include pharmaceuticals, computers, and non-bank financials [4][44]. - The report also mentions that the net buying scale of financing funds was highest in the pharmaceutical sector (+20.6 billion yuan), followed by non-ferrous metals (+15.7 billion yuan) and food and beverage (+15.4 billion yuan) [4][46].