Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommend" rating for key companies in the e-commerce and tourism sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Meituan [15][18][19]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index decreased by 2.13%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (down 0.45%) and the ChiNext Index (down 1.66%) [5][7]. - JD Group has entered the hotel market with a zero-commission policy for hotels participating in the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Program," aiming to optimize supply chain costs and enhance service quality [5][23]. - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to maintain high demand in the tourism sector, with strong short-distance and family travel trends observed [5][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The report indicates a total of 133 stocks in the industry, with a total market capitalization of 1,121.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,028.2 billion [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance over the last month is -0.4%, with a 6-month performance of 34.6% and a 12-month performance of 25.6% [4]. Key Company Recommendations - E-commerce: The competitive landscape is overly pessimistic, with expected profit growth for major players like Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [15]. - Local Life Services: Meituan's long-term competitiveness remains intact despite short-term competitive pressures [16]. - Shared Mobility: Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and potential for profit growth [17]. Major News in the Industry - JD Group's announcement of a zero-commission policy for hotels aims to enhance the hotel industry's operational efficiency [23]. - The 618 shopping festival saw 453 brands on Tmall surpassing 100 million in sales, a 24% increase year-on-year [24]. - JD Group's overall order volume exceeded 22 billion during the 618 festival, with user numbers growing over 100% [25].

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 06 月 23 日 关注地方债利差压缩机会 ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 2618 亿元，净融资增加。本周地方债发行量为 2618 亿元，偿还量为 1374 亿元，净融资为 1243 亿元。发行债券中，新增一 般债 272 亿元，新增专项债 425 亿元，再融资一般债 631 亿元，再融资专项债 1290 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 10Y 地方债发行占比最高（34%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 53%，与上周相比有所下降。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行占比分 别为 26%、34%、2%、6%和 12%，其中 10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比 下降约 13 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 8.9bp，较上周有所收窄。其中 30Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 21.2bp。本周除 10Y 和 15Y 地方债加 权平均发行利差有所收窄外，其余期限均有所走阔。本周云南、甘肃、广西等 地方债加权平均发行利差较高，超过 11bp，而上海、黑龙江、北京、湖北发行 利差相对较低。 【募集资金投向】 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading provider of energy IoT solutions, showcasing strong internal growth momentum with significant revenue and profit increases projected for the coming years [7]. - The international expansion strategy has yielded notable results, with a focus on the Middle East and the establishment of an overseas factory in Indonesia, driving substantial growth in international revenue [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from increased investments in the domestic power grid, with a projected total investment of over 6,500 billion yuan by the State Grid in 2025 [7]. - The development of self-researched chips creates a competitive edge, ensuring a robust order backlog that supports future growth [7]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with attractive valuation metrics [7]. Company Overview - The company specializes in providing comprehensive IoT solutions across the entire industry chain, including sensing, networking, and application layers [12]. - Key products include electric monitoring terminals, water and gas sensors, communication gateways, and IoT application solutions [12][16]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2023 is 2,225 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%, and expected to reach 6,146 million yuan by 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 525 million yuan in 2023 to 1,280 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27% [3]. - The company’s current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 31.3, expected to decrease to 12.8 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3]. Industry Overview - The electric monitoring terminal market is experiencing rapid growth due to the acceleration of smart grid construction and the digital transformation of industries [25]. - The demand for water, gas, and heat sensing terminals is increasing, driven by the need for efficient resource management in urban public utilities [28]. - Communication modules are essential for enabling data transmission between devices, with a growing market for smart home and industrial applications [32]. Investment Logic - The company’s early market positioning and dual growth drivers from the Middle East and emerging markets are expected to create future value [7]. - Record-breaking investments in the power grid are anticipated to enhance the company’s growth prospects in the smart grid sector [7]. - The collaboration with leading enterprises and strategic partnerships in the IoT space strengthens the company’s market position [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 2.51% and the public utility index down 1.13%. The power sector specifically saw a 1.31% drop, while the gas sector increased by 0.69% [6][31] - As of June 20, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal has dropped to 620 CNY/ton, marking a relative low since 2022. The performance of thermal power companies varies significantly based on their geographic location and demand for electricity [6][10] - The report highlights a shift in electricity generation, with thermal power generation increasing to 4614.6 billion kWh in May, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while hydropower generation decreased by 14.3% [10][21] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - In May, total electricity generation reached 7377.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with thermal power generation showing a recovery [10][21] - The overall electricity consumption in May was 8096 billion kWh, up 4.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry [21] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has seen a cumulative increase of 3.34% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [6][31] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with thermal power down 1.31% and nuclear power showing a slight increase of 0.15% [31][37] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remains low, with significant declines from previous highs [46] - It also monitors water reservoir levels, with the Three Gorges Reservoir showing a water level of 149.13 meters as of June 20, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [48] Industry Key Events - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at promoting renewable energy and improving energy efficiency, including financial support for renewable energy projects [78]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Quantitative Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses historical data and quantitative indicators to generate short-term market timing signals based on factors such as valuation, liquidity, fundamentals, and sentiment [13][14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamentals**: Signals are derived from indicators like manufacturing PMI (35.59% percentile, cautious), long-term loan growth rate (0.00% percentile, cautious), and M1 growth rate (77.97% percentile, optimistic) [13] - **Valuation**: Signals are based on PE (85.11% percentile, neutral) and PB (35.40% percentile, optimistic) metrics [14] - **Sentiment**: Signals are generated from beta dispersion (52.54% percentile, neutral), volume sentiment score (-0.19, 40.45% percentile, neutral), and market volatility (10.42%, 4.55% percentile, neutral) [14] - **Liquidity**: Signals are derived from monetary rates (-0.03, 33.90% percentile, optimistic), exchange rate expectations (-1.07%, 20.34% percentile, optimistic), and average financing (5.18 billion, 54.01% percentile, neutral) [15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant performance improvement over the benchmark, with a robust risk-return profile and consistent positive returns in most years [15][16] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model allocates between growth and value styles based on macroeconomic cycles, valuation spreads, and sentiment indicators [27][28] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamentals**: Signals are based on profit cycle slope (positive, favoring growth), interest rate cycle (high, favoring value), and credit cycle (weak, favoring value) [27] - **Valuation**: Signals are derived from PE spread (14.54%, favoring growth) and PB spread (30.19%, favoring growth) [27] - **Sentiment**: Signals are based on turnover spread (4.71%, favoring value) and volatility spread (35.20%, favoring balanced allocation) [28] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy outperforms the benchmark with higher annualized returns and lower drawdowns, though it underperformed in certain years like 2025 [28][31] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model allocates between small-cap and large-cap styles based on macroeconomic cycles, valuation spreads, and sentiment indicators [32][33] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamentals**: Signals are based on profit cycle slope (positive, favoring small-cap), interest rate cycle (high, favoring large-cap), and credit cycle (weak, favoring large-cap) [32] - **Valuation**: Signals are derived from PE spread (71.08%, favoring large-cap) and PB spread (98.53%, favoring large-cap) [33] - **Sentiment**: Signals are based on turnover spread (39.06%, favoring large-cap) and volatility spread (87.23%, favoring large-cap) [33] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates significant outperformance over the benchmark, with higher returns and improved risk-adjusted metrics [33][35] 4. Model Name: Four-Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines the growth-value and small-cap-large-cap rotation models to allocate across four styles: small-cap growth, small-cap value, large-cap growth, and large-cap value [37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Combines signals from the growth-value and small-cap-large-cap models to determine allocation proportions: small-cap growth (12.5%), small-cap value (37.5%), large-cap growth (12.5%), and large-cap value (37.5%) [37] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves higher annualized returns and lower drawdowns compared to the benchmark, with consistent outperformance in most years [37][38] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Short-term Quantitative Timing Model - **Annualized Return**: 16.10% - **Annualized Volatility**: 14.71% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.70% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.9529 - **Win Rates**: Monthly (67.55%), Quarterly (68.63%), Yearly (85.71%) [20][24] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 11.39% - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.86% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 43.07% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.5264 - **Win Rates**: Monthly (58.00%), Quarterly (60.00%) [31] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 11.92% - **Annualized Volatility**: 22.76% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 50.65% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.5219 - **Win Rates**: Monthly (60.67%), Quarterly (56.00%) [35] 4. Four-Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 12.89% - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.61% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 47.91% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.5777 - **Win Rates**: Monthly (59.33%), Quarterly (60.00%) [38]

Domestic Insights - Export growth continues to decline, with June's port cargo throughput falling below the same period in 2024, indicating a significant drop in export growth[6] - Domestic demand shows structural differentiation, with actual economic growth continuing to trend downward; investment remains weak, and real estate transactions show limited recovery[6] - Central fiscal policy is actively promoting initiatives, with net financing of government bonds reaching a recent high in mid-June, indicating a focus on livelihood areas[6] - The global equity asset bubble is the only path forward, with a strong emphasis on potential upward risks in equity assets in the second half of the year; Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares[1] International Insights - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, with monetary policy not expected to be the focus of asset pricing until late August and mid-September meetings[2] - The probability of simultaneous escalation in Middle Eastern tensions and tariffs is low; if oil prices rise due to geopolitical tensions, tariff policies may ease, leading to a high likelihood of rate cuts within the year[2] - The U.S. Senate passed the Stablecoin Act on June 17, which may allow for a new form of liquidity provision without significant rate cuts, altering the valuation logic of global equity assets[2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the Cross-Border Payment System by the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which aims to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs [9][12]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of stablecoins in the financial ecosystem, particularly in cross-border payments, as regulatory frameworks evolve [17][18]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in both stablecoin issuers and cross-border payment service providers, indicating a shift towards integrating traditional finance with Web3 technologies [18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 284 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 3,263.3 billion and a circulating market value of 2,874.2 billion [2]. Market Performance - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.83% in the third week of June 2025, with notable performers including Sifang Jingchuang and Jin Chengzi [19]. Key Developments - The Cross-Border Payment System will officially launch on June 22, 2025, facilitating efficient and secure cross-border transactions between mainland China and Hong Kong [9][12]. - The initial batch of 12 participating institutions includes major banks from both regions, covering three core areas of cross-border payment services [14][12]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the recent legislative developments in the U.S. regarding stablecoins, including the passage of the GENIUS Act, which aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins [17]. - The report notes that the stablecoin market is projected to exceed 2 trillion by 2028, driven by increasing adoption and regulatory clarity [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on two main categories for investment: 1) issuers and exchanges with strong business models, such as Circle and Coinbase, and 2) cross-border payment service providers and custodial banks, including New Guo Du and Zong An Online [18].

Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Since 2014, China's interest rates have generally declined, with the policy rate falling below 2% and the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.66%, down from 4.60%[9][14] - The decline in interest rates is primarily due to a decrease in natural rates, influenced by demographic changes, technological progress, and economic transformation[11][13] - As of 2024, China's foreign financial assets reached $1,021.67 billion, a 58% increase since 2014, while foreign liabilities grew by 42% to $692.09 billion, resulting in a net foreign asset of $329.58 billion, a 105% increase[16] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flow - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. has led to a significant outflow of capital, with net outflows of $2,800 million in 2022 and $428 million in 2024[28][30] - The trend of increasing foreign assets is expected to continue, with non-reserve assets constituting 66% of total foreign assets by 2024, up from 40% in 2014[16][20] - The Chinese government is responding to the demand for overseas investment by increasing Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quotas, facilitating cross-border capital flows[2][8] Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions face the challenge of increased risk exposure due to larger foreign asset holdings, necessitating enhanced risk management capabilities[41] - The potential for foreign capital inflows remains significant, with the need for domestic institutions to attract foreign investment to offset capital outflows[41] - The trend of "de-dollarization" may lead to a stronger RMB, creating conditions for increased overseas investment by domestic entities[1][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating that the sector has entered an investment range with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models [2][38]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a low-level oscillation in sales, with a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area of -3.3% in May, indicating continued pressure on sales due to weak inventory and new supply trends [14][15]. - The report highlights that the funding chain index for real estate has declined, remaining at historically low levels, but anticipates potential improvements in the financial situation of some companies as supply and demand policies gradually take effect [2][10]. - The report suggests that the decline in mortgage rates may help stabilize total demand for new and second-hand homes, with a focus on the new housing market showing earlier signs of marginal improvement compared to the second-hand market [38]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In May, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for sales area was -3.3%, with a total sales area of 35.3 million square meters, reflecting a continued low market heat [14][15]. - The cumulative sales amount from January to May was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of -3.8% [10][15]. Construction Data - The new construction area in May saw a year-on-year decline of -19.3%, indicating a tightening balance in new construction under the current market conditions [39][40]. - The report maintains that the completion rate will likely remain low until the second half of 2026, with a May completion area decline of -19.5% year-on-year [39][40]. Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in May showed a year-on-year decline of -12.0%, reflecting a synchronized drop in construction area and ongoing inventory reduction efforts by developers [2][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable cash flow generation capabilities and those that can navigate the current market challenges effectively [38].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable investment outlook for the liquor industry, particularly recommending to capitalize on the emotional recovery opportunities in the liquor sector and to return to performance fundamentals [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent media coverage indicates a correction in overly strict regulations on social dining, which is expected to positively impact the liquor sector outside of official receptions. This, combined with low overall valuations, suggests that the industry is nearing a bottom, making it a good time to invest in leading companies [1][15]. - The beer segment is also noted for potential growth driven by seasonal demand and structural growth in key products [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends and suggests monitoring high-growth categories in the second half of the year for valuation switching opportunities [1][15]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - **Wuliangye**: The company remains optimistic despite challenges, with a potential increase in the dividend payout ratio for 2025. The focus is on maintaining a balance between volume and price, with a notable 24% increase in banquet sessions in the first half of 2025 [2][10]. - **Shui Jing Fang**: The management team is stable, and the company plans to expand its store count significantly, with a focus on emotional marketing strategies [2][11]. - **Shede Liquor**: Inventory levels have been adjusted to a reasonable range, and the company is focusing on product and channel expansion, particularly in lower-priced offerings for rural markets [2][12]. - **Bairun Co.**: The company has launched a new series of single malt whiskies, showcasing its innovative capabilities in the domestic whiskey market [3][12]. - **Youyou Foods**: The company is rapidly expanding its membership and bulk sales channels, with a strong performance in new product launches [3][12]. - **Guai Bao Pet**: The brand has seen significant growth in its product lines, particularly in high-end segments, and is expected to continue expanding into overseas markets [3][13]. - **Haitian Flavor Industry**: The company has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 10.01 billion HKD [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are innovating with new products and channels, such as Youyou Foods, New Dairy, Bairun Co., and Ximai Foods [4][15]. - It also suggests investing in companies that are likely to benefit from improved seasonal sales, including Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Nongfu Spring [4][15]. - In the pet food sector, companies like Zhongchong Co. and Guai Bao Pet are highlighted for their growth potential [4][15]. - Defensive stocks such as Yili and Mengniu are recommended due to their stable performance and low valuations [4][15].