Group 1: Tax System Reform and Economic Impact - The VAT has become the largest tax type in China, maintaining a stable share of 35-40% since 2016, with a compound growth rate of -7.4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, and 17.0% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in growth[3] - In 2024, VAT revenue accounted for 49.5% of local fiscal revenue, the highest in history, reflecting the declining support of land finance for local governments[3] - The average share of VAT revenue in local fiscal income from 2016 to 2022 was 45.3%, increasing to over 49% from 2023, coinciding with a period of negative domestic price levels[3] Group 2: Price Control and Market Dynamics - The current fiscal and tax system may create unreasonable incentives for local governments to stimulate production, which could hinder the establishment of a unified national market[3] - Shifting the consumption tax collection point from production to sales could enhance local governments' focus on consumption, as local sales would directly impact their tax revenue[3] - Optimizing the fiscal and tax system can reduce local governments' supply impulses and increase their emphasis on consumption, potentially alleviating price pressures from both supply and demand sides[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession alongside unexpected monetary policies from major economies[3]

- The "Xinhua Zhongchengxin Dividend Value Index" (989016.CNI) selects companies with continuous cash dividends and long-term allocation value in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, using a composite weighting method of expected dividend yield factor and low residual volatility factor to reflect the overall performance of such companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets[5][32][33] - The index is characterized by a large market capitalization style, with 19 constituent stocks having a market capitalization of over 100 billion yuan, accounting for 33% of the weight[5][40][42] - The index has a "one high and four low" feature: high dividend yield, low valuation, low volatility, low beta, and low turnover, which makes it both effective and defensive[5][32][33] - The index's annualized return since 2012 is 11.7%, with an annualized volatility of 19.36% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.64, outperforming mainstream broad-based indices[5][54][55] - The index's dividend yield is significantly higher than common broad-based indices, with an annualized dividend yield of 4.05% since 2012 and over 5% since 2021[5][49][50][54] - The index shows strong growth potential, with stable and improving profitability, and is expected to maintain positive revenue growth in the coming years[5][48][49] - The index demonstrates a clear defensive characteristic, performing well in bear markets and achieving excess returns compared to other broad-based indices during market downturns[5][57][58]

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes public and private quantitative funds, covering aspects such as the basic characteristics of quantitative strategies, the development history of domestic quantitative investment, the current development status of the industry, the operational characteristics and performance of quantitative funds, the differences in investment operations between public and private quantitative funds, and how to select quantitative products [1][2][3]. - Quantitative strategies are based on historical data, using methods such as data mining and mathematical modeling to discover investment opportunities, with strong systematic and disciplined features. They focus on research breadth to achieve probability - based wins, different from subjective strategies that rely on research depth [10][11][12]. - Public and private quantitative funds have different development paths and characteristics. Public quantitative funds have experienced stages of growth, slowdown, and strategy diversification, while private quantitative funds have gone through explosive growth, stable development, and challenges [5][16][19]. - There are significant differences in regulatory requirements, management behaviors, investment strategies, and fee terms between public and private quantitative funds, which lead to differences in their risk - return characteristics [6]. - When selecting quantitative products, investors should use a four - dimensional evaluation system of "strategy deconstruction - positioning matching - indicator verification - ability evaluation" to consider factors such as strategy environment adaptability, risk - return characteristic persistence, and management team moat depth [6][90]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Quantitative Strategy Basic Characteristics - Quantitative strategies use historical data to discover price change patterns and formulate investment strategies. The most widely used quantitative stock - selection model is the multi - factor model, including price - volume factors, fundamental factors, and alternative factors. Some funds also introduce machine learning factors [10]. - Quantitative strategies have strong strategy discipline, systematically mining investment opportunities and avoiding the influence of subjective emotions. Their risk - control systems are embedded in strategies, with different constraints for different types of products [11]. - Compared with subjective investment, quantitative investment focuses on research breadth and probability - based wins, with lower marginal costs and a wider range of tracked investment opportunities [12]. 3.2 Domestic Quantitative Investment Development History 3.2.1 Public Fund Quantitative Investment Development History - **Germination Period (2004 - 2014)**: From the exploration of "subjective + quantitative" to the initial application of the multi - factor model. The first index - enhanced fund and active quantitative stock - selection fund were established, and with the return of talents, the multi - factor stock - selection model was gradually applied [12][13][15]. - **Accelerated Growth Period (2015 - 2021)**: The multi - factor model became popular, and the scale of quantitative funds expanded rapidly. The scale of index - enhanced strategies increased significantly, while the scale of hedge strategies grew rapidly from 2020 and then declined [16]. - **Steady Development Period (2022 - present)**: The growth rate of the overall scale of public quantitative funds has slowed down, but strategies have become more diversified. Different product lines complement each other, and some managers introduce AI algorithms to iterate strategies [19]. 3.2.2 Private Fund Quantitative Investment Development History - Private quantitative funds have experienced three rounds of growth. From 2019 to 2021, there was explosive growth, with the scale reaching 1.08 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, accounting for 17.1% of the total scale of private securities investment funds. From 2021 to 2023, there was steady development, and in 2024, the industry faced challenges due to market fluctuations and stricter regulations. In 2025, private fund filings recovered [5][22][25]. 3.3 Public and Private Quantitative Fund Industry Development Status 3.3.1 Public Fund Quantitative Strategy and Pattern Distribution - **Strategy Classification**: Public quantitative strategies mainly include active quantitative strategies, index - enhanced strategies, and quantitative hedge strategies. Some equity parts of fixed - income + funds also use quantitative management methods [31]. - **Scale Distribution**: As of 2025Q1, the number of public quantitative equity funds reached 654, with a scale of 3025.88 billion yuan. Index - enhanced products had the largest scale, and the management scale concentration of the top ten managers was relatively high [32][37]. 3.3.2 Private Fund Quantitative Strategy and Manager Situation - **Strategy Classification**: Private quantitative investment strategies are more diverse, including quantitative long - only, stock neutral, convertible bond strategies, CTA strategies, other derivative strategies, arbitrage strategies, and composite strategies [38]. - **Hundred - Billion Private Quantitative Managers**: As of the end of June 2025, there were 39 hundred - billion private quantitative investment fund managers, accounting for nearly half of the total number of hundred - billion private funds [5]. 3.4 Operational Characteristics and Performance of Public and Private Stock Quantitative Funds 3.4.1 Operational Characteristics - **High Turnover**: Quantitative funds have a relatively high turnover rate, which helps capture short - term trading opportunities. Public quantitative funds' annual bilateral turnover is mainly between 2 - 20 times, and private quantitative funds' turnover is generally above 30 times [47][48]. - **Large Number of Holdings**: Quantitative funds usually hold a large number of stocks, with a high degree of diversification in stocks and industries. Public quantitative funds' holding numbers are mainly between 50 - 600, and some exceed 2000. They can reduce non - systematic risks [53][54]. 3.4.2 Performance - **Index - Enhanced Products**: The absolute and excess returns of index - enhanced products vary from year to year, with the overall excess - acquisition ability of CSI 1000 index - enhanced > CSI 500 index - enhanced > SSE 500 index - enhanced. Private index - enhanced funds generally have better excess returns than public ones, but with greater differentiation [57][58]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The performance of public and private active quantitative funds varies by year. In 2019 - 2020, public active quantitative funds performed better, while in 2018, 2021 - 2023, private ones performed better. Private funds have greater performance and drawdown differentiation [66]. - **Quantitative Hedge Funds**: Private quantitative hedge funds generally outperform public ones in terms of annual returns, but their performance and drawdown differentiation are also greater [70]. 3.5 Differences in Investment Operations between Public and Private Quantitative Funds - **Regulatory Requirements and Contracts**: Public quantitative funds are regulated by the "Securities Investment Fund Law", with high regulatory intensity and high information transparency. Private quantitative funds are regulated by the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Private Investment Funds", with more customized contracts and higher risk levels [79]. - **Management Behaviors**: Public quantitative managers rely on institutionalized teams and standardized IT infrastructure, with a focus on systematic risk control and compliance. Private managers use an elite - based organizational structure, with higher hardware investment and employee incentives, and their product strategies may be more differentiated [81]. - **Investment Strategies and Restrictions**: Public quantitative funds have stricter constraints on investment scope, proportion, and tracking error, with lower turnover. Private quantitative funds have more flexible mechanisms, with higher turnover and greater elasticity in excess returns [6][84]. - **Fee Terms**: Private quantitative product fee terms are more complex, usually including management fees and performance rewards, while public quantitative products mainly charge fixed management fees and custody fees [6][87]. 3.6 How to Select Quantitative Products - When selecting quantitative products, investors should use a four - dimensional evaluation system of "strategy deconstruction - positioning matching - indicator verification - ability evaluation" to consider factors such as strategy environment adaptability, risk - return characteristic persistence, and management team moat depth [6][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the shipbuilding industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The performance of China Shipbuilding and related companies has significantly exceeded expectations, driven by high-value orders and favorable raw material cost dynamics, suggesting a potential for increased profit elasticity in the future [2]. - The global order for alternative fuel vessels has shown a decrease in quantity but an increase in total tonnage, reflecting a trend towards larger, more efficient green ships [2]. - The new ship price index has stabilized and shown slight recovery, with June new ship orders increasing on a month-over-month basis, indicating early signs of market recovery [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - China Shipbuilding's H1 2025 net profit forecast is between 2.8-3.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 98%-119% [1]. - China Heavy Industry's H1 2025 net profit forecast is between 1.5-1.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 182%-238% [1]. - China Power's H1 2025 net profit forecast is between 0.8-1.15 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 68%-142% [1]. Market Trends - The new ship price index has stabilized at 186 points in June, with a slight increase from May [3]. - Global new ship orders reached 2.54 million CGT in June, showing a month-on-month increase despite a year-on-year decline of 81% [3]. - The second-hand ship market is experiencing a revival, particularly in the oil tanker segment, with VLCC prices showing a steady upward trend [7]. Industry Developments - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry is nearing completion, which will create the largest shipbuilding entity globally and reshape the market landscape [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant profit growth in the shipbuilding sector, particularly for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as they capitalize on the recovery in ship prices and order volumes [8].

Group 1: US Tariff Policies - Trump announced a delay in the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, with tariffs on imports from 14 countries ranging from 25% to 40%[8] - A 50% tariff on imported copper and a potential high tariff on pharmaceuticals were threatened, with a 35% tariff on Canadian goods also announced[8] - Countries facing tariffs may see comprehensive tariffs of 15% to 20% if they have not yet received tariff notifications[8] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump approved additional defensive weapon shipments to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia, indicating a shift to a tougher stance on unresolved issues[4] - The EU's Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for economic rebalancing and "de-risking" in relations with China, highlighting a strategic shift in European diplomacy[14] - The upcoming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations may lead to a framework agreement, despite existing tensions and differing national interests among negotiating countries[12] Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing high tariffs may serve as a tool to accelerate trade negotiations, but the long-term risks of these policies remain significant[12] - The US is focusing on strategic supply chains, with ongoing investigations into sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors under Section 232[17] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with potential for increased cooperation among non-US regions as they respond to US tariff pressures[16]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 2.32%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 2.76% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.12, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.14, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.04, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.19%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.00 [4][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing focus on stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA), particularly in light of recent discussions by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission regarding cryptocurrency and stablecoin development [6][9]. - RDA (Real Data Assets) is highlighted as a key innovation in the RWA space, aiming to enhance the marketization and valuation of data elements, thus driving efficiency in the integration of real assets and capital [10][12]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 284 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 3,586.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3,156.1 billion [3]. - The computer sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 78.1% over 12 months and relative performance of 62.3% compared to the benchmark [5]. Market Developments - The report notes significant developments in the stablecoin sector, particularly the push for a pilot program for RMB stablecoins in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [9][10]. - RDA is positioned as a transformative force in the data asset market, with its framework designed to facilitate the valuation and trading of data assets, thereby unlocking new financing channels for enterprises [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in stablecoin issuance, cryptocurrency exchanges, IT service providers, and cross-border payment firms, with specific mentions of companies like 恒生电子, 顶点软件, and 朗新集团 [15][16]. - It also highlights the potential of RDA to accelerate the marketization and valuation of data elements, recommending investments in infrastructure firms and data service providers [16].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]