证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 18 日 新洋丰（000902.SZ） 全年业绩稳步增长，复合肥迎来量利齐升 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，报告期内实现收入 155.6 亿元，同比增长 3.07%， 归母净利润 13.15 亿元，同比增长 8.99%，扣非净利润 12.41 亿元，同比增长 6.75%；其中四季度单季实现收入 31.96 亿元，环比下降 19.04%，归母净利润 2.02 亿元，环比下降 46.11%，四季度为复合肥传统淡季，业绩符合预期。 ❑ 风险提示：原材料价格大幅波动、产品放量不及预期、新项目投产不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 15100 | 15563 | 17250 | 18615 | 19956 | | 同比增长 | -5% | 3% | 11% | 8% | 7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1422 | 1590 | 1975 | 2213 | 2428 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 4 月 17 日 基建高频指标改善——经济热力图 【周度经济指数】周度经济指数回落。上周中国周度经济指数（WEI）为 6.1%， 较前值回落 0.1 个百分点。其中 WEI 生产子指数为 6.6%，较前值回升 0.3 个百 分点；WEI 需求子指数为 5.4%，较前值回落 0.3 个百分点；供需缺口为-1.1%， 较前值回落 0.5 个百分点。 【生产】生产回落。上周螺纹钢产量 4 周移动平均同比为 8.4%，较前值回升 1.7 个百分点。高炉开工率为 83.3%，较前值回升 0.1 个百分点。PTA 产业链负荷 率为 76.8%，较前值回落 3.7 个百分点。汽车半钢胎开工率为 78.5%，较前值 回落 3.3 个百分点。沿海主要电厂日均耗煤量 4 周移动平均同比为-11.2%，较 前值回落 10.6 个百分点。 【基建】基建高频指标回升。上周水泥发运率为 42.8%，较前值持平。水泥磨机 运转率为 44.5%，较前值回升 2.8 个百分点。石油沥青装置开工率为 27.6%， 较前值回升 1.9 个百分点。 【房地产】商品房销售增速回落。上周 30 大中城市商品 ...

当前股价：33.76 元 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 17 日 安琪酵母（600298.SH） Q4 收入稳健，海外快速增长 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2024 年度报告，24 年实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 152.0/13.2/11.7 亿，同比+11.9%/+4.3%/+5.8%。展望 25 年，公司以稳为主， 收入目标增速 10%，海外增速预计快于国内，产能上埃及、俄罗斯二期扩建及 普洱项目基本完成，15 万吨粮食仓储、印尼项目建设筹备中，为中长期提供有 力支撑。利润端，原料价格同比略降，费用精细化管理优化费率。我们调整 25-26 年收入预测为 167/183 亿，归母净利润分别 14.6 亿/16.8 亿，25-26 年 EPS 分 别为 1.68/1.94 元，对应 25 年 20x，维持"增持"评级。 增持（维持） 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 869 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 854 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 29.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 28.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 12. ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 17 日 爱玛科技（603529.SH） 2024 年稳健收官，看好 2025 年量价齐升 消费品/轻工纺服 公司在 2024 年营收/归母净利润同比+2.71/5.68%，在政策过渡年平稳收官，彰 显经营韧性。我们看好 2025 年在以旧换新政策加持下，公司凭借产品优势+品 牌效应超额受益。我们预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润 26.36/31.09/35.97 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 13.8/11.7/10.1 x，维持 "强烈推荐"投资评级。 刘丽 S1090517080006 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 21036 | 21606 | 27418 | 31915 | 36313 | | 同比增长 | 1% | 3% | 27% | 16% | 14% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2194 | 2310 | 3080 | 3638 | 4211 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Dongguan Holdings [3]. Core Views - Dongguan Holdings focuses on its core highway business, committing to absolute dividends to enhance shareholder returns. The company has been divesting non-core operations and is expected to maintain stable operations in its main business [1][7]. - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, promising a minimum cash dividend of 0.475 CNY per share, which corresponds to an attractive dividend yield of 4.5% based on the latest closing price [7][43]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for Dongguan Holdings show a significant decline in 2024, with total revenue expected to be 1.692 billion CNY, a 64% decrease from 2023. However, a gradual recovery is anticipated in subsequent years [2][47]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected at 955 million CNY, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2010 to 2024 [32][47]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 42.7%, indicating a relatively low level of debt compared to industry peers [41][42]. Business Overview - Dongguan Holdings operates the Dongguan-Shenzhen Expressway, which is a critical transportation artery in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a total length of 55.7 kilometers [11][18]. - The company has shifted its focus to core business operations, exiting from non-core sectors such as rail transit and trust businesses, thereby enhancing operational stability [7][49]. - The company’s revenue structure indicates that over 75% of its income is derived from transportation infrastructure, with the expressway business contributing the majority of gross profit [21][29]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the return on investment (IRR) for the Dongguan-Shenzhen Expressway expansion project is estimated at 5.7%, which is above the industry average. The project is expected to be completed by December 2028 [38][39]. - The company’s commitment to dividends and its strong cash flow position suggest a robust capacity for shareholder returns in the future [41][43]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 911 million CNY, 906 million CNY, and 971 million CNY respectively, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12x for 2025 [47][49]. - The gross margin for the expressway business is expected to remain stable, with projections of 72.4% for 2025 [46].

张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 罗 丹 S1090524070004 luodan7@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 宏观分析报告 2025 年 4 月 17 日 一季度经济有哪些亮点 2025 年 3 月经济数据点评 ❑ 一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，与 2024 年四季度持平，高于市场预期的 5.2%。其中，第二产业（工业）增加值同比增长 5.9%，第三产业（服务 业）增长 5.3%。新质生产力领域（如装备制造、高技术制造）贡献显 著，一定程度上抵消了房地产等传统产业的部分拖累。 ❑ 一季度全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.5%，较 2024 年全年增加 0.7 个百分点。其中，3 月单月增速达 7.7%，环比增长 0.44%，显示工业生产 动能逐月增强。 ❑ 分行业来看，新质生产力中的装备制造业增加值同比增长 10.9%，统计局 数据显示，新能源汽车产量增长 45.4%，工业机器人、3D 打印设备增速 均超 25%，政策推动下智能化与绿色化转型成效显著。计算机通信与电子 设备 3 月增长 ...

关税影响暂时减弱，关注抗风险能力强的纺织制造龙头 纺织服装海外趋势跟踪（2025 年 4 月） 消费品/轻工纺服 2）制造端： 2025 年 3 月儒鸿（面料运动服）营收+21%，聚阳（运动休闲 服装）营收+11%。丰泰营收-2%，来亿营收+47%，裕元制造营收+4%。 美国对东南亚加征关税影响暂时减弱，考虑到目前美国纺织服装对东南亚供应 链依赖度高，国内纺织制造龙头在东南亚产能布局完善且成熟，应重点关注利 润率较高&行业竞争格局好&客户结构优质的纺织制造龙头。 ❑ 美国加征关税分析：美国征关税影响暂时减弱&美国对东南亚产业链依赖度高 1）关税复盘：4 月 2 日，美国宣布对等关税，其中柬埔寨 49%、越南 46%。 4 月 9 日，美国宣布除中国外，所有国家的对等关税暂停加征 90 天。仅执行 10%的基准关税。 2）美国纺织服装高度依赖于东南亚供应链：美国进口鞋履：越南占 30%+， 印尼 9%+，进口服装：越南占 20%+，柬埔寨、印尼占比 5%+。从 Nike 及 Adidas 的供应链分布看，70%以上鞋履产能和 60%服装产能分布在东南亚， 供应商份额集中度较高，对东南亚及头部供应链依赖度高。 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company plans to acquire New Wave Media for an estimated value of 8.3 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and potentially lead to significant growth opportunities [1][8] - The integration of New Wave Media is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and decision-making authority under the company's management, which could lead to enhanced profitability [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer demand and emerging consumption trends, particularly in high-tier cities [8] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9.425 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.857 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [3][10] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3.507 billion yuan in 2022 to 8.091 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [3][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 2.790 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.691 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [3][10] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 36.9 in 2022 to 15.4 in 2026, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness over time [10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's bargaining power and operational efficiency, similar to past successful integrations [8] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the exit of smaller competitors in the market, thereby solidifying its media value in high-tier cities [8] - The report highlights the potential for significant rental optimization and advertising price increases post-integration, driven by improved market conditions [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's tantalum and niobium main business profits have significantly increased, with a reported revenue of 1.28 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is progressing well with multiple ongoing projects, including the construction of a digital factory for tantalum and niobium hydrometallurgy [5]. - The forecast for the first quarter of 2025 indicates a net profit of 52 to 65 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.6% to 30.7% [1]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.108 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. This is expected to increase to 1.549 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 21% [1][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 310 million yuan in 2025, with a significant growth of 45% compared to 2024 [1][12]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 39.2 in 2023 to 23.7 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation [1][13]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Zhongse (Ningxia) Dongfang Group Co., Ltd., holds a 39.99% stake in the company [2]. Performance Metrics - The company's return on equity (ROE) is reported at 8.2% [2]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 14.8%, indicating a strong balance sheet [2]. Project Developments - Key investment projects, including the production line for niobium superconducting cavities and the digital factory for tantalum and niobium hydrometallurgy, are progressing well [5].

Group 1: Report Core View - The report focuses on the allocation value of Hong Kong stocks, the types of hybrid bond funds allocating Hong Kong stocks, a case study of fund managers with significant exposure to Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds, and concludes with investment suggestions [1][3][66] Group 2: Allocation Value of Hong Kong Stocks Sub - group 1: Positive Factors for Hong Kong Stocks - Southbound capital has been flowing into Hong Kong stocks, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for Hong Kong stocks [7][8][10] - Hong Kong stocks have high - quality and scarce underlying assets, including leading Internet companies, innovative biopharmaceutical enterprises, emerging consumer sectors, and high - dividend assets [16][17][23] - The cost - effectiveness of Hong Kong stocks has increased, and the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in hybrid bond funds has significantly risen [24][25][29] Sub - group 2: Screening of Hybrid Bond Funds Allocating Hong Kong Stocks - The screening criteria for Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds are hybrid bond funds with an average Hong Kong stock - to - equity ratio of over 20% in the past eight quarters and a consistent equity position of over 5% [30] - The Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have shown good performance in the past two years, with average annualized returns in each equity position range exceeding 3% [32][33] - Most Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have a large - cap or ultra - large - cap style, with a balanced or value style, and generally low exposure to growth [34][35][39] - Most fund managers have allocated Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds, with GF Fund, Huatai - PineBridge Fund, Fullgoal Fund, and Anxin Fund having larger management scales and more products [42][43][50] Sub - group 3: Case Study of GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced Hybrid Bond Funds - GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have generally achieved positive returns in the past two years, with most annualized returns exceeding 3% [54] - The Hong Kong stock position of GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds is divided into stable and phased allocation types, with a central average Hong Kong stock - to - equity ratio of about 32% [51][57][58] - GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds show diverse styles, including balanced allocation, "core + satellite" configuration, and "dividend + Internet" dumbbell - shaped configuration [59][60][61] - The Hong Kong stock positions of GF Fund's Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have contributed positive returns in the past two years, with some funds showing significant contributions [63][64] Group 3: Conclusion - Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds can be divided into stable and phased allocation types, suitable for investors with different investment preferences [66] - Most Hong Kong - enhanced hybrid bond funds have a large - cap or ultra - large - cap style, with a balanced or value style and low exposure to growth [66] - Dividend and Internet are the most popular sectors in Hong Kong stock positions, and balanced allocation is the most common strategy [66]