期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，1 月 16 日当周，全国 462 家动力煤矿产能利用率 90.6%，日均原煤产量 546.7 万吨，恢复至 12 月中旬水平。进入新一年度，此前部分因完成年度目标停产的煤矿陆续复产，且 尚未进入春节放假阶段，产地煤矿平稳生产。进口方面，1 月前两周，我国海运煤到港量 1325.2 万吨，折合日均到港量 110.4 万吨，较 12 月日均 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 估值端提升较快，股指震荡整固 需求升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 29923 亿元，较上日放量 708 亿元。目前股 市处于震荡整理行情，资金面在追涨与止盈之间出现分歧，日内反复波动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of strength [1][5]. - The methanol futures in the domestic market are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday, January 29, 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view for methanol is oscillation [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for methanol is strength, and the reference view is that it will run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Overseas supply "hard - contraction" is the strongest support factor for the recent upward movement of methanol prices, with Iran, a major import source, facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to a recovery in port spot prices, a stronger basis, and increased confidence among long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's tough statements, may further intensify the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium on methanol [1][5]. - Although the domestic methanol futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday night with a slight decline, the retracement space was limited [5].

宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is not provided in the report [1][5] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that in the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Although they are supported by the need for a loose monetary and credit environment due to weak macro data, the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term is low, resulting in limited upward and downward space [1][5] Group 3 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term has decreased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday with a slight increase. Macro data such as December's consumption, investment, and new credit have weakened, and there is still a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary and credit environment is needed, which provides support for Treasury bond futures. However, due to the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term is low, so the upward momentum is insufficient, and both the upward and downward space is limited [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock indexes fluctuated and consolidated today. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2992.3 billion yuan, a 70.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous day. Currently, the stock market is in a consolidation phase, with a divergence in the capital market between chasing up and taking profits, leading to increased intraday volatility. In the short term, the upward drive of the stock index is weakening due to the regulatory authorities' clear intention to control risks and the fact that the recent stock price rebound is mainly driven by valuation. In the long term, positive policy expectations and the continuous inflow of incremental funds into the stock market are the main supporting forces for the upward movement of the stock index, and the risk appetite of the stock market remains positive. Overall, the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. For options, a bull - spread strategy can be considered due to the relatively reliable long - term upward trend of the stock index [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 28, 2026, the 50ETF rose 0.22% to close at 3.138; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.32% to close at 4.725; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.43% to close at 4.931; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26% to close at 4717.99; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.21% to close at 8399.79; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.84% to close at 8.691; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.58% to close at 3.452; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.60% to close at 3.307; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.40% to close at 3.470; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.27% to close at 3060.56; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.30% to close at 1.64; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.25% to close at 1.58 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the 50ETF option was 86.52 (previous day: 76.09), and the open - interest PCR was 71.82 (previous day: 71.72) [7]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in February 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were also provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money 50ETF option in February 2026 was 15.11%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.57% [8]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Option**: Included charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [19]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Option**: Included charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [22]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Included charts of the CSI 300 Index's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [36]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 Index's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [39]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Option**: Included charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [53]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Option**: Included charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [66]. - **ChiNext ETF Option**: Included charts of the ChiNext ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [79]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [91]. - **SSE 50 Index Option**: Included charts of the SSE 50 Index's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [104]. - **STAR 50ETF Option**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [117]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Option**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [128].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 生猪 豆类 | 日报 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 28 日 豆类日报 豆类震荡偏强 油脂延续强势 核心观点 1 月 28 日，豆类油脂市场整体延续震荡偏强。豆一期价震荡偏强，期价 暂获 5 日均线支撑，资金变化不大；豆二期价涨幅超 1%,期价暂获 5 日均线支 撑，伴随增仓 2.1 万手；豆粕期价震荡偏强，期价承压于 60 日均线压力，资 金变化不大；菜粕期价涨幅超 1%，期价承压于 20 日均线压力，伴随减仓 3 万 手。油脂期价震荡偏强，豆油期价涨幅超 1%，期价依托 5 日均线延续强势， 资金变化不大；棕榈油期价涨幅超 1%，均线逐渐形成多头排列，资金变化不 大；菜籽油期价震荡偏强，期价探底回升，继续位于 60 日均线上方，资金变 化不大。 豆类市场呈现出外强内稳的格局。阿根廷核心产区的持续高温与干旱天气 构成了关键的天气升水，严重威胁大豆与玉米产量，成为推升美豆期价的核心 驱动；与此同时，美元指数持续走弱，降低了以美元计价农产品成本。国内市 场受外盘强势带动，豆粕、菜粕期货价格联动走高，但资金表现谨慎，市场被 动跟涨为主。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 作者声明 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 28 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1684 元/吨，日内录得 0.12%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.81 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-292 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 持平。近期，焦炭基本面并无明显好转，供需均持稳运行，成本端焦煤带 来的支撑同样有限，主力合约暂维持低位区间运行。 焦煤：1 月 28 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1134.5 点，日内上涨 0.44%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 49.89 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-14256 手。 现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1240.0 元/吨，周环比持 平。整体来看，在缺乏政策端直接利好的背景下，疲弱的基本面仍压制焦 煤期货低位运行，但考虑到冬储对煤价的支撑，预计其下方空间有限，近 期或维持窄幅震荡。 （仅供参考，不构 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铝增仓上行明显 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价高开高走，收复昨夜失地，并站上 10.3 万关口。宏观层 面，美元指数维持弱势，跌破 2025 年下半年以来低位。产业层面， 早盘现货贴水小幅收窄，收盘 02-03 月差持续走弱，产业强预期弱现 实格局不变。 沪铝 今日铝价增仓上行明显，日内沪铝增仓近 10 万张，持仓量上升到 81 万张。宏观层面，美元指数维持弱势运行，利好有色。消息面 上，市场担心美伊地缘冲突升级对铝产品贸易端形成 ...