宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 期货研究报告 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 24 2026 年 1 月 26 日 橡胶甲醇原油 地缘风险主导 能化再度走强 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡上行， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 16230 元/吨一线上方运 行。收盘时期价略微收涨 0.43%至 16230 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending January 23, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 228,100 tons, a slight weekly increase of 90 tons. This week, the coke inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. The total inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 113,100 tons week - on - week to 6,616,400 tons, and the available days of coke increased by 0.38 days to 12.35 days. Overall, there is no obvious positive in the coke's fundamentals, and the support from coking coal on the cost side is also limited. The main contract will remain in the low - level range for the time being [5][31]. - For coking coal, the production is stable, imports remain at a high level, and demand is still sluggish, with no improvement in the fundamentals. As of the week ending January 23, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country was 770,000 tons, a slight weekly increase of 100 tons and 36,000 tons higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 20, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890, a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. As of the week ending January 23, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons [5][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Information - As of December 31, 2025, there are 80 legally - operating and under - construction coal mines in Shandong Province, with a total production capacity of 114.37 million tons per year. Among them, there is 1 under - construction coal mine with a construction scale of 450,000 tons per year, and 79 operating coal mines with a registered production capacity of 113.92 million tons per year [7]. - On January 26, an online auction of coking coal was held in the Liulin market of Lvliang. The starting price of high - sulfur coking clean coal A11, S≤1.85 - 2.0, G85 was 1,100 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on January 19. The starting price of high - sulfur coking clean coal A10.5, S≤2.35 - 2.5, G85 was 1,050 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on January 12 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Change Compared with the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,560 | - 1.89% | 3.31% | 4.70% | 4.70% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,780 | 1.71% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,719 | 0.44% | 1,737 | 1,701.5 | 15,987 | - 6,000 | 36,570 | - 1,308 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,159.5 | 1.35% | 1,167 | 1,138.5 | 886,410 | - 191,465 | 492,406 | - 8,590 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][14][15]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [26][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals have no obvious positive factors, and the cost - side support from coking coal is limited. The main contract will remain in the low - level range [31]. - Coking Coal: Production is stable, imports are high, demand is sluggish, and the fundamentals have not improved [32].

贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 期货研究报告 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 26 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价持续强势 核心观点 上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关 口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲突有所缓和，金价经历了短暂的避险情绪降 温。然而，支撑金价长期上涨的多个核心驱动力并未改变，这些力量 共同作用，使得金价在短期调整后仍能持续走强，并维持在历史高位 运行。 从长周期角度，美国将关税等经济和金融工具持续"武器化"的 长期趋势，正在从根本上侵蚀美元信用体系。这一结构性支点动摇， 正加速全球范围内的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the macro environment improving, copper prices may maintain a high - level and strong - running trend. Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the improvement in the Greenland incident has boosted short - term market risk appetite. The continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, when copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark last week, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down. However, as copper prices rebounded, the basis and monthly spread weakened again, and it is expected that the restocking willingness will decline again. Copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation and wait for industrial follow - up [5]. - Aluminum: With the macro environment improving, aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating trend. Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector. The decline of the US dollar index and the sharp rise of gold largely reflect the intention of global asset allocation, that is, "de - dollarization" [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector [5]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 23, the second - phase project of Tibet Julong Copper Industry was completed and put into operation. The second - phase expansion project was approved, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After reaching full production, the annual ore mining and processing volume will exceed 100 million tons, and the annual copper production will reach 300,000 - 350,000 tons. SMM expects the copper production of Julong Copper Industry to be 165,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026. Last week, the copper ore port inventory increased slightly, and the TC processing fee decreased slightly [24][26]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 335,200 tons, a weekly increase of 7,700 tons; the inventory of COMEX + LME was 727,600 tons, a weekly increase of 47,800 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the inventory accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Industry - On January 23, SMM reported that the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry rebounded by 10.51 percentage points to 67.98% week - on - week. Driven by the Spring Festival stockpiling and the decline of copper prices, downstream orders recovered, leading to the reduction of finished product inventory, and enterprises accelerated production to meet the demand. Looking forward to next week, the stockpiling demand will continue, and SMM expects the operating rate to further increase by 3.23 percentage points to 71.2% [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited [6]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 392,400 tons compared with last week and an increase of 7.17 million tons compared with the same period in 2025 [44]. 3.3.3 Low - level Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 514,700 tons, an increase of 18,300 tons compared with last week [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Industry - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated around the 24,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas increased slightly. On January 22, the aluminum rod inventory was 123,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with last week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline of copper prices was mainly due to the cooling of the macro environment, and the non - ferrous sector and even the commodity market declined. The willingness of short - term funds to close positions continued to increase. In the macro aspect, the overseas US dollar index continued to rebound, and the margin ratio of margin trading in China was raised, increasing the market regulation expectation. In the industrial aspect, the monthly spread of nearby contracts weakened significantly, electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream industries were in a wait - and - see mood. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of some industries increased, which may provide some support for copper prices. The long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [60].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1. 产业动态 碳酸锂弱势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 165680 元/吨，较前日 下跌 15840 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 181620 元/吨，较前日上涨 6.18%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 4680 点，正基差（现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 26, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from January 19 to January 23, 2026, shows that the basis was - 108 on January 19, - 112 on January 20, - 115 on January 21, - 116 on January 22, and - 116 on January 23. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 19 to January 23, 2026, are provided. For example, the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 64.18 on January 23, 62.33 on January 22, 78.62 on January 21, etc. [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 45 on January 19, - 320 on January 20, - 345 on January 21, - 250 on January 22, and - 315 on January 23 [9]. - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber was - 630, and the 9 - 1 was - 710 [10]. - Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1905 on January 19, 1832 on January 20, 1896 on January 21, 1953 on January 22, and 1980 on January 23 [10]. Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of rebar was 140 on January 19, 159 on January 20, 143 on January 21, 136 on January 22, and 118 on January 23 [21]. - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was - 71 [20]. - Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.95 on January 19, 3.98 on January 20, 3.96 on January 21, 3.98 on January 22, and 3.96 on January 23 [20]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of copper was - 160 on January 19, - 740 on January 20, - 1270 on January 21, - 690 on January 22, and - 670 on January 23 [29]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 23, 2026. For example, the LME spread of copper was (66.06), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.85 [32]. Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 161 on January 19, - 178 on January 20, - 152 on January 21, - 167 on January 22, and - 204 on January 23 [36]. - Inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was - 38 [36]. - Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.89 on January 19, 1.90 on January 20, 1.89 on January 21, 1.89 on January 22, and 1.90 on January 23 [36]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was - 1.00 on January 23 [48]. - Inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter). For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was 1.0 [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - biased manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong - biased [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex rubber. However, Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are positive, and December's heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Due to the increasing bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have tightened recently, driving up its price significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber. The upward oscillation of international crude oil has supported the high price of naphtha, rigidly raising the cost and laying a foundation for the futures price. The operating rate of butadiene plants has dropped to 72%, while the operating rate of downstream rubber plants remains at a high level of 78%, strengthening the expectation of cost increase. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern provides important support. In addition, the natural rubber in Southeast Asia has entered the production - reducing season, and the price difference between Shanghai Rubber standard rubber and synthetic rubber has widened significantly, indirectly supporting the upward shift of the synthetic rubber price center. The domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strong - biased stance on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on Monday [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, with the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively [2] - The industrial contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure due to the imbalance between supply and demand [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The spot price of steel remained stable over the weekend, and the trading volume was weak. The supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable [3] Supply - Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the rebar output has significantly rebounded to a relatively high level, increasing the supply pressure [3] Demand - The demand for rebar continues its seasonal weakness. High - frequency demand indicators have declined and are at the low level in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved [3] Market Outlook - The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes. The cost support and positive sentiment increase the downward resistance [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a moderately strong manner. In the short - term (within a week), it will be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also show a volatile trend, and it will be moderately strong on the day [1][5] Summary of Related Content - **Price Movement and Judgment Criteria** - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, it's yesterday's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is moderately weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is moderately strong, and a rise greater than 1% is strong [3] - The moderately strong/moderately weak judgment only applies to the intraday view, not to short - term and medium - term views [4] - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price** - Recently, US President Trump has frequently sent out geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Canada potentially being the next targets for the US to seize and attack. The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's strong statements may lead to a new round of military conflicts between the US and Iran, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. Geopolitical risks have overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend on Monday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is to oscillate and consolidate. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term has decreased. Although there is support due to the need for a loose monetary and credit environment, the upward momentum is insufficient because the macro - demand has resilience and the urgency of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is weak [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Due to the existing problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand and the policy support for technological innovation and consumption internal circulation, the future monetary and credit environment needs to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the macro - demand has resilience, and the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]