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宝城期货煤焦早报(2026年1月26日)-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:12
期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报(2026 年 1 月 26 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织,焦煤窄幅震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 单边驱动不足,焦炭区间震荡 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种:焦煤(JM) 日内观点:震荡偏强 ...
宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2026年1月26日)-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:07
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2026 年 1 月 26 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接,直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本,进口到港节 奏,油厂开工节奏,库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑,美国生物燃 料政策,美豆油库存,国内 大豆成本支撑,供应节奏, 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口,印尼生柴 和出口政策,欧盟相关政策 变化,国内到港和库存,替代 需求 品种:豆粕( ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2026年1月26日)-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:07
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2026 年 1 月 26 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡运行 | 现实格局偏弱,矿价延续震荡 | 说明: 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱,钢厂生产趋稳,矿石终端消耗低位运行,且淡季钢市矛盾在累积,需 求延续偏弱运行,相对利好则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时,国内港口到货高位回落,而矿商发运持续 减量,按船期推算后续到货将回落,带来矿石供应收缩,关注后续变化。目前来看,矿石供应收缩, 但库存高企,利好效应不强,同时需求表现偏弱,矿石基本面并未好转,矿价仍易承压,相对利好则 是钢厂补库与商品偏暖情绪,预计矿价维持震 ...
宝城期货动力煤早报(2026年1月26日)-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:06
期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报(2026 年 1 月 26 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 观望氛围较浓,港口煤价窄幅震 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 荡 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种:动力煤现货 日内观点: 中期观点: 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 ...
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026年1月26日)-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:06
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026 年 1 月 26 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 去美元化推升金价 | | 铜 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 盘面做多氛围回暖 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:上涨 中期观点:强势 参考观点:长线看强 核心逻辑:上周金价持续上涨,纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲 突有所缓和,金价 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报(2026年1月26日)-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:06
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they will fluctuate and consolidate. In the short - term (within a week), the sentiment is oscillating, and in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it's also oscillating. For the intraday, it's on the weaker side [1][5]. - The main factors supporting the long - term upward trend of the stock index are the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. In the short - term, the expectations of policy bottom - support, support for technological innovation, and boosting consumption are clear, which strongly support the stock index. Although the regulatory authorities have signaled risk control, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that the market sentiment remains optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is on the weaker side. The reference view is that it will fluctuate and consolidate, with the core logic being that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is on the weaker side, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is that they will fluctuate and consolidate. The core logic is that last Friday, the stock indices fluctuated and diverged, with IM and IC leading the gains, while IH and IF slightly declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 311.81 billion yuan, an increase of 40.17 billion yuan from the previous day [5].
资讯早班车-2026-01-26-20260126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 01:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is accelerating its opening - up, and new regulations for public funds are set to address industry issues. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and the stock market has a positive outlook with new - fund issuance booming. Commodity markets, including metals, energy, and agriculture, have various price movements driven by different factors [2][17][25][36] - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with GDP growth slowing, inflation rising slightly, and changes in various economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI, social financing, and trade [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, slightly up from 50.0% [1] - Social financing in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates changed compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improved from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China Securities Regulatory Commission added 14 futures and options as domestic specific varieties, signaling an acceleration of capital market opening [2] - The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its January meeting, with a 95% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - On January 23, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 37 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices broke through $5000 per ounce, and silver prices exceeded $106 per ounce, with a 3% increase. Analysts predict gold price increases between 10% - 35% in 2026 [4][5] - Gold - related listed companies' performance improved due to rising gold prices, and some companies are still acquiring gold - mine assets [5] - The prices of gold and silver reached their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, capital outflows from currency and bonds, and geopolitical tensions [5] - The lithium carbonate futures price exceeded 180,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply contraction and demand growth, but market divergence is increasing [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking coal prices rose significantly, with most coal types increasing by over 100 yuan per ton, increasing coke production costs [7] - Coking enterprises' losses intensified, with an average loss of 65 yuan per ton of coke last week, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week [7] - The coke market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with high steel - mill iron - water production and low coke production [8] - In 2025, the national coal production by large - scale enterprises reached 48.3 billion tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In December 2025, the national electricity market trading volume was 608 billion kWh, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. Green power trading volume increased by 32.3% [10] - Due to a cold wave in the US, natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [10] - The US may cancel the 25% tariff on India if India's oil imports from Russia continue to decline [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - January 2026, 29 out of 50 important production materials' prices rose, 13 declined, and 8 remained unchanged compared to early January. Pig prices increased by 3.2% [14] - Fruit prices, such as strawberries, cherries, and tangerines, decreased due to sufficient supply [14] - As of mid - January 2026, the price of soybeans increased by 0.31% month - on - month [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 23, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [15] - This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature. The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations in January, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [15] - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan to maintain market liquidity [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The CSRC issued guidelines for public - fund performance comparison benchmarks, and the Asset Management Association of China released operating rules, which will take effect on March 1 [17] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized promoting commodity and service consumption upgrades [17] - In 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 747.69 billion yuan, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, but some industries saw growth [18] - The central bank will promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation in 2026 [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed a slight upward trend, with interest - rate bond yields falling by about 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.83% [25] - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index also increased [26] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [26][27] - Most money - market interest rates declined, and bond - issuance yields and multiples were reported [27][28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9642, down 14 points from the previous trading day, but up 48 points last week. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 90 points [31] - The US dollar index fell 0.79%, and most non - US currencies rose [31] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the second - tier perpetual bonds have recovered, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate in Q1, with some trading opportunities [32] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high - quality real - estate enterprises, commercial operators, Hong Kong - funded real - estate enterprises, and high - dividend property - management companies [32] - CICC Fixed - Income reports that the scale of nominal fixed - income + funds reached a record high in Q4 2025, while pure - bond funds faced redemption pressure [33] - CITIC Securities expects the expansion of public REITs to become normal, which will help transform the REITs market from "small and scattered" to "large and excellent" [34] - CITIC Construction Investment warns of risks such as US inflation, economic recession, European energy crisis, and global geopolitical risks [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Foreign public - fund institutions are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026, maintaining high - position strategies and focusing on the technology sector [36][37] - Since the beginning of 2026, the new - fund issuance market has recovered, with 76 new funds established and a total fundraising of 71.939 billion yuan as of January 24 [37] 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 26, 195 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will be paid, and 498 bonds will pay principal and interest [35]
钢材&铁矿石日报:市场情绪偏暖,钢矿震荡回升-20260123
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 10:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.58%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is that the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.52%, both volume and positions expanded. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, the demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that speculative demand is acceptable, and the short - term price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened with a daily increase of 1.21%, both volume and positions expanded. Currently, the shipments of miners have seasonally declined, but inventories are high, the supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and ore prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that ore prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in Xiongan New Area increased by 14% year - on - year. The coordinated development of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei has deepened. In 2025, Hebei's fixed - asset investment increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the investment of construction projects worth over 100 million yuan increased by 9.6% year - on - year, driving the province's investment growth by 6.5 percentage points [7]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January are expected to be 1.8 million units, and new energy vehicles are expected to reach 800,000 units. Affected by the halving of purchase tax subsidies, the car market started weakly at the beginning of January, but gradually recovered. The monthly retail market is expected to be 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Fortescue's iron ore production was 49.8 million tons, a 2% decrease both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The shipment volume was 50.5 million tons, a 1% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and their price changes are provided. Also included are the prices and price changes of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and iron ore price index [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, volume differences, positions, and position differences of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 3,142 with a 0.58% increase, the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,305 with a 0.52% increase, and the iron ore contract closed at 795.0 with a 1.21% increase [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore [13][14][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills, and the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines [21][22][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [26][28][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply has increased to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and prices are under pressure during the off - season. The futures price near the valley - electricity cost provides downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [33]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Supply pressure remains, demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is acceptable speculative demand. The short - term price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [33]. - **Iron Ore**: Miners' shipments have seasonally declined, inventories are high, supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals have not improved, and prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [34].
有色日报:有色震荡走强-20260123
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 10:33
Report Overview - Report Type: Futures Research Report [2] - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [4] - Report Industry: Non-ferrous Metals [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - **Copper**: This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly around the 100,000 level, with a significantly narrower amplitude than last week. It repeatedly fell below the 100,000 mark during the week and then stabilized and rebounded, with a slight increase in open interest. At the macro level, market risk appetite rebounded with the reversal of the Greenland event, and the US dollar index was weakly running. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped to the 100,000 mark, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased. On Thursday, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased slightly, the monthly spread rebounded slightly, and the import loss also narrowed, reflecting the increasing domestic industrial support. Continuously monitor the long-short game at the 100,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: This week, the aluminum price fluctuated around the 24,000 level, with a slight increase in open interest. At the macro level, the Greenland issue reversed, and US President Trump postponed tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite. At the industrial level, the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the downstream remained in a wait-and-see mood. Continuously monitor the long-short game at the 24,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: This week, the nickel price fluctuated above the 140,000 level, repeatedly falling below the 140,000 mark during the session and then bottoming out and rebounding. At the macro level, the market atmosphere warmed up during the week, and the non-ferrous metal sector stabilized as a whole. Recently, after the nickel price digested the supply disturbance in Indonesia, the intraday amplitude narrowed, the short-term strong industrial expectation drive declined, and the weak reality pattern remained unchanged. Technically, continuously monitor the support at the 140,000 mark [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - Lundin Mining Corporation achieved its production targets for various metals on a consolidated basis for the third consecutive year in 2025. In 2025, its copper production was 331,232 tons, gold production was 141,859 ounces, and nickel production at the Eagle mine was 9,907 tons. In Q4 2025, the company's copper production exceeded 87,000 tons and gold production exceeded 34,000 ounces. The Caserones mine achieved its highest quarterly copper production since acquisition in Q4, reaching 39,612 tons, mainly due to increased ore grade and cathode copper production. Looking ahead, Lundin expects its consolidated copper production to be 310,000 - 335,000 tons in 2026, 315,000 - 340,000 tons in 2027, and 290,000 - 315,000 tons in 2028. The cash cost guidance for 2026 is $1.90 - $2.10 per pound. The expected maintenance capital expenditure in 2026 is $550 million, expansion capital expenditure is about $445 million, and exploration expenditure is expected to be $53 million, mainly for in-mine and near-mine exploration [10]. - The operating rate of domestic scrap anode copper enterprises declined. This week, the operating rate of SMM scrap anode plate enterprises was 72.17%, a 3.73 percentage point decrease from the previous week. It is expected to decline by 0.83 percentage points to 71.34% next week [11]. - On January 22, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,200 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the 19th [12]. Aluminum - On January 22, the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 138,856 tons, an increase of 101 tons from the previous trading day. In the past week, the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 773 tons, a growth rate of 0.56%. In the past month, they increased by 62,767 tons, a growth rate of 82.49% [13]. - On January 22, Mysteeel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 19th [13]. Related Charts Copper - Copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, monthly spread of Shanghai copper, SHFE inventory, and inventory warehouse receipts are presented in the report [14][16][17] Aluminum - Aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai-London ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum bar inventory are presented in the report [25][27][29] Nickel - Nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory are presented in the report [37][39][41]
碳酸锂日报:碳酸锂强势运行-20260123
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 10:32
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The futures and spot prices have shown an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, while the basis has weakened. The registered warehouse receipts have generally increased, and the supply has slightly shrunk due to pre - Spring Festival maintenance and tight lithium mica raw materials in Jiangxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 181,520 yuan/ton, up 12,740 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the settlement price was 177,320 yuan/ton, up 8,160 yuan/ton from the previous day [4][6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates increased compared to the previous day, while the price of South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore also increased. The prices of various grades of lithium mica in China showed an upward trend compared to the previous day but a downward trend compared to the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 171,050 yuan/ton, up 6,490 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 161,080 yuan/ton, up 4,460 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate was - 9,970 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials increased. The price of manganese - acid lithium electrolyte remained unchanged, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts display the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][13][17]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [19][20].