宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-05 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.10 | 49.20 | 50.10 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.20 | 49.50 | 52.20 | | 20251215 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24888.00 8178.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货均震荡小幅回调。消息面，统计局公布了 12 月制造业 PMI 数据为 50.1%， 比上月上升 0.9 个百分点，升至扩张区间。宏观 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the strong side', and the reference view is 'oscillation thinking' [1] - In January, coking coal is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the market may focus on the resumption rhythm of upstream and downstream. Currently, coking coal lacks continuous upward drivers and its price may maintain low - level oscillation [5] - Downstream resumption of production and winter storage may support the coke price, and the decline of the main contract may face resistance, but whether it can rebound upward depends on demand improvement and new policy benefits [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Core Logic**: In the new year, coal mines that stopped or reduced production will resume, increasing coking coal output. With high imports, supply pressure remains. After the New Year's Day, downstream steel mills may resume production, driving up demand. Overall, in January, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, and the price may oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: Before the festival, coking coal prices were stable, and coking enterprise profits were not improved, so production enthusiasm was average. Downstream steel mills will gradually resume production in the new year. The speed and amplitude of the increase in hot metal output may affect the short - term trend of coke futures. Downstream resumption and winter storage may support the price, but upward rebound depends on demand and policies [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 马棕产量和出口，印尼生柴 和出口政策，欧盟相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillating". The core logic is that the thermal coal supply - demand pattern is improved due to the increase in heating demand. In January, the fundamentals of domestic thermal coal may recover, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillating". The core logic is that the heating demand increases, improving the thermal coal supply - demand pattern [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the intraday and medium - term reference view is "oscillating". Before the New Year's Day, the thermal coal price was still weakening, and the decline rate slowed down after the cold air on the 24th and 25th. As of December 31, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton and then gradually stabilized this week. The coal price decline was due to high - level supply and unexpectedly weak demand. In January, although some shut - down coal mines on the supply side will resume production, downstream replenishment demand will be fulfilled due to the concentrated Spring Festival coal mine holidays. On the demand side, the heating demand of residents in southern coastal cities will further increase, driving power plant coal consumption to reach the annual peak. The fundamentals of domestic thermal coal may recover in January, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound, and the subsequent power plant coal consumption trend should be focused on [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the post - holiday domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Although there are geopolitical factors driving up prices, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is a long - term drag on prices [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The short - term view for crude oil 2602 is "volatile" [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The medium - term view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "volatile" [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "moderately strong" [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: During the New Year's Day holiday, the US Delta Force raided the capital of Venezuela and kidnapped President Maduro and his wife, and President Trump threatened other South American countries, which led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks and may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The long - term logic that weighs down oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. There are still concerns about global supply glut, which keeps the pessimistic sentiment of funds lingering [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The positive factors have not subsided, but the supply remains high while the demand improvement is limited [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the positive factors remain, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holidays, international iron ore prices were weak. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to accumulate. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased from a low level. However, the improvement of steel mills' profitability was limited, and downstream demand was difficult to bear a significant production increase, restricting demand improvement. The relatively positive factor was steel mills' restocking. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals continued to decline, while miners' shipments reached a new weekly high for the year, with overseas ore supply being active at the end of the year. Even though domestic ore supply shrank seasonally, the overall ore supply remained high. The positive factors supported the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply was high and demand improvement was limited, resulting in weak fundamentals and a lack of upward driving force. The ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be noted [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias after the holiday. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is strong, with an overall view of oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Wednesday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, combined with policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds, jointly support the stock index. In 2026, policies are gradually being implemented, and policy - favorable expectations are gradually fermenting. Against the background of the global monetary easing cycle, the trend of large - scale asset allocation to Chinese technology assets is increasing the risk appetite of the stock market. In the short term, as the stock index approaches the previous high, the technical resistance appears, and the upward trend of the stock index slows down. However, after the holiday, with the return of market liquidity and the further fermentation of policy benefits, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to recover [5].