1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In April, the ferroalloy market is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Energy costs support the prices, leading to high - level oscillations. For ferrosilicon, the supply is currently low but is expected to rise due to profit recovery, and the demand (hot metal production) is on the rise. For silicomanganese, the supply is relatively stable with some new capacity coming online and potential self - imposed production cuts, and the demand (steel production) is expected to seasonally rebound. The high - level crude oil prices support the cost of manganese ore [2][3][72][74] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply is currently low, but with the recent sharp rise in spot prices and profit recovery, production is expected to increase. In April, hot metal production is still in an upward channel, so the fundamentals are expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the ferrosilicon price to oscillate at a high level [2][72][74] - **Silicomanganese**: The production of sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and some new capacity has been put into operation, with overall stable supply. Some industry associations have called for self - imposed production cuts, but the actual implementation needs attention. Steel production is expected to continue its seasonal rebound. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [2][74] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, ferroalloy futures prices rose sharply due to multiple emergencies. The military strike on Iran by the US and Israel in late February led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and an increase in the prices of international coal and natural gas. As energy - intensive products, the valuation of ferroalloys also increased. In late March, Hurricane Narelle hit the main manganese ore shipping port in Australia, raising the expectation of short - term supply shortage [7] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand in April - **Supply**: In February, the output of silicomanganese (187 enterprises) was 774,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In late March, some new capacity was put into operation, and the output in March is expected to increase slightly. The output of ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) in February was 394,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and the output in March is also expected to increase. As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 27.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%, and the daily output was 102,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 32.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%, and the daily output was 191,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [27] - **Demand**: Affected by the temporary environmental protection restrictions on steel mills in the northern region during the Two Sessions, hot metal production first decreased and then increased in March. As of the week of March 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons. In April, according to the blast furnace maintenance plan, steel mills are still in the seasonal resumption of production trend, and hot metal production is expected to maintain a slight upward trend. Overall, the situation of increasing supply and demand is expected in April. Although the inventory inflection point of steel has appeared and the apparent demand has continued to rise, the slow destocking of hot - rolled coils may limit the height of steel mill复产 [27][30] 3.2.3 Inventory Situation - In March, the overall inventory of alloy plants was slightly relieved. As of the week of March 27, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 54,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 372,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. Generally, the ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while the silicomanganese inventory is relatively high, and high inventory is still the main pressure suppressing the price increase. For downstream inventory, as the hot metal production of steel mills gradually recovers, the available days of raw material inventory have slightly decreased month - on - month. However, due to the relatively low absolute value of steel profits and the high level of available days in the past three years, steel mills are expected to mainly maintain just - in - time procurement in April [42] 3.2.4 Cost Situation - Since the large - scale strike on Iran by the US and Israel at the end of February, the prices of energy such as crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply, and the international steam coal price has also risen, driving the domestic steam coal price to stop falling and rebound. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the alloy price. For manganese ore, the port inventory is slightly higher than that of last year but lower than the average of the past four years. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [58] 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and demand, and energy costs support the bottom. Overall, the price will oscillate at a high level [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell put options on rallies [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the rebar market showed a strong and volatile trend driven by costs. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, increasing the global inflation expectation and the cost center of commodities, which had a transmission effect on the prices of the black series. At the industrial level, construction steel showed the characteristics of "both supply and demand increasing, and inventory accumulation slowing down". Although the rebar production increased month - on - month, the absolute level was still at a low level in the same lunar period in the past five years. At the same time, the inventory reached a downward inflection point, and both the factory inventory and social inventory began to decline, with little fundamental pressure for the time being [2]. - In the short term, the rebar market will be in a "dilemma". The strong cost logic is the core driver and lower support for prices, but the weak reality of domestic and foreign demand will strictly limit the price increase space. The market will mainly show a cost - driven volatile trend, and the height of price increase will depend on the actual strength of demand recovery [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The rebar market this week was strongly volatile driven by costs. Geopolitical conflicts affected commodity prices, and the construction steel industry had "both supply and demand increasing, and inventory accumulation slowing down" characteristics. In the short term, the market is in a "dilemma" with cost support and demand - limited price increase [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Steel Production and Inventory Changes**: The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 228.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.95 million tons or 3.14%. The rebar factory inventory was 236.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42 million tons or - 1.43%. The rebar social inventory was 653.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34 million tons or - 0.20%. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 84.96 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 million tons or - 4.84%. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 376.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 million tons or - 1.56% [4]. Market Data Charts - **Futures Market**: The report includes charts such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [6][7][9]. - **Spot Market**: The report includes charts of rebar prices in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot prices (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The report includes charts of the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend charts, and seasonal analysis charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories [16][21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Energy price fluctuations affected the futures amplitude, and the fundamentals limited price elasticity. The coking coal fundamentals showed a "double - increase in supply and demand" situation with no prominent contradictions. The coking coal futures had support at the bottom due to energy premium, but demand boost was limited, so the futures would mainly move in a volatile manner. The coke fundamentals showed stable overall production. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. After the Two Sessions, pig iron production would gradually increase, driving up demand. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills. Recently, as coking coal prices rose, the cost - side support for coke became stronger, and the futures followed the coking coal fluctuations [6][31][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. Energy price fluctuations affected the futures amplitude, and the fundamentals limited price elasticity. The coking coal supply was slightly loose, with stable inventory structure. Independent coking enterprises slightly replenished coking coal, and steel mills replenished raw material inventory. Coke production was stable. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production and coke consumption declined. The new round of coke price cut was implemented, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises [6] 3.2 Market Focus - **Events**: From January 20th to 26th, 2026, the Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration found major accident hidden dangers in Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and ordered it to suspend production for rectification for 2 days. During the 2026 Two Sessions, many NPC deputies and CPPCC members put forward suggestions on the coal industry, focusing on carbon reduction, pollution control, and ecological environmental protection. Due to the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, LNG supply tightened, and India might rely more on coal - fired power generation this summer. The Canadian Coal Association emphasized the strategic importance of metallurgical coal [7] - **Main Views**: Coking coal supply was slightly loose, inventory structure was stable, independent coking enterprises slightly replenished coking coal, steel mills replenished raw material inventory, coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills was stable, pig iron production and coke consumption declined, and the new round of coke price cut was implemented, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises [7] 3.3 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Coking coal inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with the same period last year. Geopolitical conflicts stimulated oil prices to rise, and coal in the same energy sector had a premium. Downstream enterprises slightly replenished inventory [10] - **Bearish Factors**: Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and the supply side was slightly loose. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined [10] 3.4 Data Analysis - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of March 13th, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 4.84%, and the daily average output increased by 2.92 tons to 77.7 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 31%, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%, and the daily average output increased by 3.18 tons to 23.08 tons. Since March, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday high level. The domestic mine enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The capacity of coal washing plants is recovering slowly [12] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of March 13th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 277.68 tons, a decrease of 8.58 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 313.6 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 267.55 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons. This week, the mine enterprise inventory decreased, the coal washing plant inventory increased, the overall inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with last year [14] - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Replenishment**: As of March 13th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 969.43 tons, an increase of 19.98 tons. The available inventory days were 11.41 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 100.43 tons, a decrease of 9.87 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the raw material coking coal changed from previous inventory reduction to slight replenishment [17] - **Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory Replenishment**: As of March 13th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 777.63 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons. The available inventory days were 12.44 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 687.55 tons, an increase of 16.29 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 13.17 days, an increase of 0.64 days compared with the previous period. Steel mills replenished raw material inventory [21] - **Coke Production of Independent Coking Enterprises and Steel Mills**: As of March 13th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.91%, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.89%, and the daily average output of coke was 47 tons, the same as the previous period. This week, the overall coke production was stable [23] - **Pig Iron Production and Coke Consumption**: As of the week of March 13th, China's coke consumption was 99.54 tons, a decrease of 2.88 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average pig iron output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly [25] - **Coke Price Cut and Profit Situation**: As of March 13th, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 3 yuan/ton, changing from profit to loss. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03% compared with the previous period. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills [27] - **Double - Coking Futures - Spot Basis Structure**: The double - coking futures moved in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [29] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: The domestic mine enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The capacity of coal washing plants is recovering slowly, and the supply side is slightly loose. This week, the mine enterprise inventory decreased, the coal washing plant inventory increased, the overall inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with last year. Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their coke inventory, and the raw material coking coal changed from previous inventory reduction to slight replenishment. Steel mills also replenished raw material inventory. Overall, the coking coal fundamentals showed a "double - increase in supply and demand" situation with no prominent contradictions. With the Middle East conflict not over, energy prices fluctuated at a high level. Driven by energy premium, there was support at the bottom of the coking coal futures, but demand boost was limited, so the futures would mainly move in a volatile manner [31] - **Coke**: The overall coke production was stable. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. After the Two Sessions, pig iron production would gradually increase, driving up demand. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills. Recently, as coking coal prices rose, the cost - side support for coke became stronger, and the futures followed the coking coal fluctuations [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai lead futures may experience wide - range fluctuations after a decline. Although the domestic supply and demand both increase, the low - level inventory continues to rise, causing the supply - demand situation to weaken marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend. Mid - term attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Changes Processing Fees In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrates in physical volume, with a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average level in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the tight situation of domestic mines continued. The processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat. For spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat [2]. Supply In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, and the monthly output was higher than expected; the output of recycled refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. For primary lead enterprises, there were both maintenance and resumption of production, and the supply increased mainly on a month - on - month basis. The operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces monitored by SMM was 50.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. The refined lead import window remained open, and the import profit margin narrowed slightly. The cost of waste batteries increased, and the profit of recycled lead was still acceptable, with only a slight narrowing of profit. The future growth of recycled lead production was limited but still had room for improvement [3]. Consumption Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces monitored by SMM was 70.77%, a week - on - week increase of 4.18%. After the New Year's Day holiday, lead - acid battery enterprises gradually resumed production, and the weekly operating rate increased. In December, the inventory in the battery industry chain accumulated, and in November, the net export of lead - acid batteries decreased month - on - month. In January, orders decreased, and the production enthusiasm was lower than that in December. Orders from automotive battery and energy - storage battery enterprises were relatively stable, and medium - and large - sized enterprises' production was okay. The operating rates of medium - and large - sized enterprises ranged from 60% to 80%, and a few enterprises even considered early holidays before the Spring Festival. Due to changes in tariff policies, orders from some export - oriented enterprises were sluggish, and there were large differences in the operating rates of production enterprises. At the initial stage of implementing the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more wait - and - see, and the production of electric bicycles declined [4]. Spot As of the week ending January 16, the domestic lead spot basis turned to a premium, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 115 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.18 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory As of the week ending January 16, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,375 tons to 206,400 tons. The LME inventory had been falling continuously from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 6,933 tons to 37,044 tons. As of January 15, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions monitored by SMM reached 27,400 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. 2. Market Outlook and Strategy The LME lead inventory has been falling continuously, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains in a deep discount state, indicating that the overseas lead supply - demand surplus situation continues. The import volume of lead ore increased month - on - month in November, slightly higher than the average level, but the increment was limited. Due to the seasonal off - season of domestic mines in winter, the domestic mine supply remains in a deficit state, and domestic processing fees are operating at a low level. For primary lead, there are both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating rate has increased slightly; the cost of waste batteries has increased, the profit of recycled lead is still acceptable, and the profit has only narrowed slightly. The future growth of recycled lead production is limited but still has room for improvement. The Shanghai - London price ratio has decreased slightly, the domestic import window remains open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. Overall, the domestic supply and demand both increase, but the low - level inventory continues to rise, and the supply - demand situation weakens marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend after a decline [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar strengthened again, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The demand for rebar has a seasonal rebound, but the supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains. Supported by market sentiment and cost, the rebar price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated upwards, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The market sentiment has improved, and the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The market sentiment has improved, and the iron ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply of iron ore is at a high level, while the demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - valued iron ore price is still prone to pressure. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - Regarding the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides agreed to further determine specific details and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [6]. - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Among them, the state - owned holding enterprises, joint - stock enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises, and private enterprises had different profit growth rates [7]. - Tangshan Fengnan District launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather from 12:00 on October 27, 2025, due to expected adverse diffusion conditions [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3180 yuan, 3140 yuan, and 3232 yuan respectively, with price changes of 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 13 yuan [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3330 yuan, 3220 yuan, and 3349 yuan respectively, with price changes of 40 yuan, 20 yuan, and 16 yuan [9]. - Other: The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2960 yuan, with a change of 30 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2160 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, with a change of 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 813 yuan, with no change [9]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3100 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,696,201 lots, an increase of 614,508 lots, and the open interest was 1,953,001 lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3299 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The trading volume was 595,934 lots, an increase of 165,988 lots, and the open interest was 1,482,730 lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 786.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The trading volume was 363,294 lots, an increase of 52,955 lots, and the open interest was 558,846 lots, a decrease of 6,796 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, etc. [20][21][26]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profitability of steel mills [29][31][32]. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand have both increased. The weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.91 tons, and the demand has a seasonal rebound. However, the fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. With market sentiment and cost support, the price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply and demand pattern has improved slightly. The weekly output has increased by 0.62 tons, and the demand has performed well. However, there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has continued to weaken. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decrease, while the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [37].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in the futures price of 20 rubber, which reached a peak of 12,650.00 yuan, closing at 12,505.00 yuan with a gain of 0.93% on October 24 [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The overall rubber market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with the recent fundamentals remaining relatively stable. The import data from September has contradicted the logic of production area reductions, and there is a clear expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter, while demand remains strong due to tire exports and operational rates [2]. - Short-term price movements for rubber are anticipated to be volatile, as supply is gradually being released with the ongoing rubber tapping. However, the demand side is expected to provide limited support. Weather conditions in production areas are a key concern, as adverse weather could disrupt tapping schedules and impact production levels [3]. - There is a decreasing trend in rubber inventory in China, with continuous declines in warehouse receipts, which serves as a medium-term support for rubber prices. The easing of macroeconomic pressures and increased tire production rates are driving the market upward [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Industrial silicon [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The industry is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has significantly slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation, indicating that the fundamentals have turned loose. Considering the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertainty of the demand for polysilicon in the core consumption direction, there is no obvious unilateral driver in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose and then fell, closing with a negative line. The trading volume decreased significantly, with a full - day trading volume of 210,531 lots and an open interest of 176,563 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 407,790 lots, an increase of 8,057 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 2,165 lots [4]. 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In the southwest production area, as the wet season is coming to an end, the smelting electricity price is facing an increase, leading to higher production costs. In the north production area, the electricity price is relatively stable throughout the year due to the use of coal - fired power. After the anti - involution, the profit is acceptable. Against the background of the planned production cut in the southwest, large factories in Xinjiang may have the expectation of further increasing production, which makes the market worried that the supply is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell today. The main 2511 contract formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly. Both the long and short sides continued to wait and see. From the daily chart, the futures price formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows below the 50 - day moving average. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the future [7]. 4.3 Market Outlook - The industry is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The fundamentals have become looser. Given the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertain demand for polysilicon, there is no clear one - way driving force in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing a decline, particularly in asphalt futures, which have dropped significantly due to geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1] Supply Side - Asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 29.3%, but is still 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - Domestic asphalt production in September is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons month-on-month (11.3% increase) and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1% increase) [1] Demand Side - Improved weather in South China and market sentiment have led to better trading atmosphere and increased delivery volumes in key storage areas for asphalt [1] Market Outlook - The fundamental drivers for asphalt are weak, with both supply and demand increasing, leading to a stable low-price trend in the market. Future price movements are expected to be primarily influenced by international crude oil fluctuations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both supply and demand increases, but the inventory pressure remains high. In the short - term, affected by macro - sentiment fluctuations and the driving force of polysilicon, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon present a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, due to anti - involution and supply reform, the quotes of holders are firm, and the bullish sentiment is still strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, most industrial silicon prices showed a downward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 355 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.06%. The prices of different types of industrial silicon in various regions also decreased to varying degrees [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, etc. remained unchanged during this period, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed small fluctuations [10]. - **Organic Silicon**: The average price of DMC remained unchanged, while the average price of 107 glue decreased by 0.86% and the average price of silicone oil decreased by 0.38% [10]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 increased by 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47%, while the average price of A356 remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 North - South Increase, Continuous Increment in Supply - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: In the week of August 28, the number of silicon - enterprise furnaces in operation increased by 12 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 1,980 tons, and its operating rate increased from 58.48% to 62.57% [39]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, with the monthly output reaching about 110,000 tons. In August, it is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons. Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons [3][68]. 3.3 Improved Transactions, Reduction in Polysilicon Inventory - As of August 28, the total polysilicon inventory decreased to 213,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. Multiple upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments before the end of August, resulting in a significant increase in the trading volume of the polysilicon market and a relatively obvious decline in inventory [3][68]. 3.4 Peak - Season Demand Not Yet Apparent, Weak Organic Silicon Prices - **Supply**: In August, the DMC operating rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 percentage points, and the output was 223,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,300 tons. Last week, due to anti - involution in the industry, some local devices reduced their loads for maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in weekly production [97]. - **Demand and Price**: The organic silicon prices weakened. As of August 29, the average DMC price remained unchanged, the average 107 glue price decreased by 0.86%, and the average silicone oil price decreased by 0.38%. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and new orders were weak [103]. 3.5 Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate with Minor Fluctuations - **Operating Rate**: In the week of August 28, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [111]. - **Price**: The aluminum alloy prices rebounded. As of August 29, the average ADC12 price increased by 1.47%, and the average A356 price remained unchanged [114]. 3.6 High Inventory Pressure - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of August 28, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 173,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. As of August 29, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, equivalent to 252,300 tons of spot [124]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The industrial silicon supply - demand balance showed different situations in different months. From January 2024 to July 2025, the supply - demand balance fluctuated, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [125].