Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, with business volume, new orders, and capital turnover indexes in the prosperity range [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit of alumina futures contracts to 7% and the margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 8% and 9% respectively from the settlement on November 7 [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards for new listed contracts after the rule release [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea varieties in February 2026 to the last trading day of the month [2] - Palm oil inventory is expected to surge 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023, with production estimated at 1.94 million tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports expected to grow 3.8% to 1.48 million tons [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin ratios of alumina futures contracts [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea varieties in February 2026 [2] - Palm oil inventory, production, and exports are expected to change in October [2] Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, red dates, PP, and asphalt [3] - Night trading price changes and capital proportions of various commodity futures sectors are presented, with precious metals having a 28.70% increase, followed by non-ferrous metals at 23.34% [3] Sector Positions - The changes in positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days are shown [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and others, are presented. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.41% and an annual increase of 18.15% [5] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - Charts show the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premiums of the stock market [6]

Report on the Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View In the short - term, the rubber price may follow the macro - led market due to the lack of obvious fundamental drivers. If the raw material supply is smooth during the peak production season in the main producing areas, the price may decline further; if not, the price is expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,250 yuan, with a decline of 0.35%. The whole - milk basis increased by 155 yuan to - 445 yuan, with an increase of 25.83%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan to 14,650 yuan, with an increase of 0.34%. The non - standard price difference increased by 255 yuan to - 45 yuan, with an increase of 85.00% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 350% to an unspecified value, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 10 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 32 yuan [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2.00 to 458.80, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8.50 to 189.00, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5.00 to 50.00, with an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12.20 to 113.70. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased by 26.21 and 20.56 respectively. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859.00 to 10,295.4, with an increase of 9.10%. In September, tire exports decreased by 671.00 to 5,630.0, with a decline of 10.65%. In August, the total import of natural rubber increased by 4.60 to 52.08 million tons, with an increase of 9.68%. In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 8.00 to 74.00 million tons, with an increase of 12.12% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 486 to 456,039, with a decline of 0.11%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1,210 to 40,119, with a decline of 2.93% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of shorting on rebounds should be continued. For glass, in the medium - and long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity, and if the demand continues to weaken, it can be treated as bearish [3]. Summary by Category - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On October 17, the North China glass price decreased by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan, with a decline of 2.48%; the South China price decreased by 40 yuan to 1,270 yuan, with a decline of 3.05%. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 53 yuan to 1,231 yuan, with a decline of 4.13%; the glass 2509 contract decreased by 38 yuan to 1,322 yuan, with a decline of 2.79%. The 05 basis increased by 23 yuan to - 51 yuan, with an increase of 31.08% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 31 yuan to 1,294 yuan, with a decline of 2.34%; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 1,360 yuan, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 spread increased by 31 yuan to 6 yuan, with an increase of 124.00% [3]. - **Supply**: On October 17, the soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly production increased by 2.5 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.2 million tons to 16.13 million tons, with an increase of 1.16% [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 346.9 million weight boxes to 6,282.40 million weight boxes, with an increase of 5.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.0 million tons to 165.98 million tons, with an increase of 3.74%; the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.7 million tons to 69.91 million tons, with an increase of 4.05% [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Report on the Log Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the log supply - demand situation. The near - month 11 contract is weak, while the far - month 01 contract is relatively strong. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Price**: On October 17, the log 2511 contract increased by 7 yuan to 804 yuan per cubic meter, with an increase of 0.88%; the log 2601 contract increased by 11 yuan to 835.5 yuan per cubic meter, with an increase of 1.33%. The prices of major benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In September, the port shipping volume increased by 10.0 million cubic meters to 176.6 million cubic meters, with an increase of 6.00%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 2.0 to 46.0 [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 13 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - **Demand**: As of October 10, the average daily log delivery volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.83 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The industrial silicon price is under pressure due to increased supply and accumulated inventory, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the 11 - contract price drops to 8,000 - 8,300 yuan per ton, buying on dips can be considered [5]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Main - contract Basis**: On October 17, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different varieties increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 180 yuan to 185 yuan, with an increase of 640.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 420 yuan, with a decline of 9.09% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 million tons to 42.08 million tons, with an increase of 9.10%. The Xinjiang production increased by 3.36 million tons to 20.32 million tons, with an increase of 19.78%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07% to 61.94%. The organic silicon DMC production decreased by 1.29 million tons to 21.02 million tons, with a decline of 5.78%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 million tons to 13.00 million tons, with a decline of 1.29% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons to 10.85 million tons, with a decline of 0.09%. The social inventory increased by 1.70 million tons to 56.20 million tons, with an increase of 3.12% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable, mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand - side orders. If there are long positions, they can be closed at high prices [7]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 17, the average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 50 yuan to 52,800 yuan per ton, with an increase of 0.09%. The N - type material basis increased by 285 yuan to 460 yuan, with an increase of 162.86% [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract decreased by 235 yuan to 52,340 yuan per ton, with a decline of 0.45%. The spreads between different contracts changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In the week, the silicon wafer production increased by 1.52GW to 14.35GW, with an increase of 11.85%. In the month, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 million tons to 13.00 million tons, with a decline of 1.29%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 million tons to 0.10 million tons, with a decline of 14.02%; the export volume increased by 0.09 million tons to 0.30 million tons, with an increase of 40.12% [7]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.30 million tons to 25.30 million tons, with an increase of 5.42%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 million tons to 17.31 million tons, with an increase of 3.16% [7].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic asphalt futures 2511 contract is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, benefiting from the rebound of crude oil futures prices and the improvement of the domestic asphalt industry factors under the background of increasing supply and demand [2][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Impact on Asphalt - The trading logic of the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive, supply factors, and increased geopolitical premium in the oil market. After the game between the bearish expectation of increased supply and the enhanced geopolitical risk, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, providing cost support for asphalt futures [3]. Domestic Asphalt Supply - Since September, the processing profit of domestic asphalt manufacturers has recovered, and the refinery production enthusiasm has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 36.4%, a week - on - week increase of 5.9%. The total domestic asphalt production last week was 60.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons [4]. Domestic Asphalt Demand and Inventory - Since September, the downstream consumption capacity has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5% at the beginning of September, a week - on - week increase of 2.6%. The asphalt social inventory rate has decreased slightly, showing signs of destocking. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt sample factory inventory decreased by 24.6% year - on - year, and the sample social inventory decreased by 21.5% year - on - year [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in domestic commodity futures, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading the gains, while the shipping sector, particularly the European routes, faced declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, there was a notable increase in lithium carbonate prices by 12.92%, while fuel and crude oil prices decreased by 2.71% and 0.71% respectively [1] - The black series and basic metals experienced slight fluctuations, with coking coal rising by 0.24% and iron ore by 0.32%, while coking coal saw a minor decline of 0.26% [1] Group 2 - The supply side is affected by the suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine due to the expiration of its mining license, raising concerns about lithium carbonate supply [3][5] - In July, China's lithium carbonate imports from Chile reached approximately 10,200 tons, with a 43% month-on-month increase in exports from Chile expected by July 2025 [5] - The demand for lithium remains high, with July's production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4% [5] Group 3 - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased to 142,256 tons, reflecting a 0.1% reduction week-on-week, primarily due to the flow from processing plants to downstream sectors [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, with expectations of continued price volatility until supply disruptions are resolved [6] - Analysts suggest that the next critical date for market observation is September 30, when a reserve verification report will be submitted, which may increase market fluctuations [7]

Report Overview - The report is the Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report on July 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 76,680 yuan/ton, up 7,300 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -160,463 lots, down 1,892 lots; the position of the main contract was 436,727 lots, up 74,673 lots; the spread between near and far contracts was 1,500 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 10,754 lots/ton, up 665 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -6,130 yuan/ton, down 7,200 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,800 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,966 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary materials (811 - type, China) was 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 - power - type, China) was 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 - single - crystal type, China) was 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 32,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 52%, up 3 percentage points [2] New Energy Vehicle - The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales were 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales were 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1,060,000 units, up 455,000 units [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position was 210,332 lots, up 16,378 lots; the total put position was 89,733 lots, down 2,989 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 42.66%, down 5.1436 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.39%, down 0.0014 percentage points [2] 2. Industry News - With the progress of the "anti - involution" in the market, the prices of many commodity futures contracts have fluctuated significantly. On the evening of July 23, GZEE adjusted the price limit range, trading margin standard, trading fee standard and trading limit of relevant futures contracts such as industrial silicon, polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2] - According to the data from Chengdu Customs, in the first half of this year, Chengdu's total foreign trade imports and exports reached 427.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The import and export scale increased quarter by quarter. The exports of "new three" products increased by 33.6%, among which photovoltaic products and lithium - ion batteries increased by 185% and 204.8% respectively [2] - According to the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch, in June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium hydroxide remained basically flat. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, and the installed capacity of power batteries increased year - on - year. The production of lithium salts remained stable, but the inventory increased due to lower sales willingness caused by falling prices [2] - The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The EU may prepare a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% in case an agreement cannot be reached before August 1 [2] 3. Core Viewpoints - The prices of many commodity futures contracts have fluctuated significantly. GZEE has taken measures to cool down the market and prevent risks [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where the industry expectation has been repaired, but the actual situation is still weak. The industry inventory is accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2] - In the option market, the subscription position dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodity futures in different time periods (weekly, monthly, yearly, two - year, and three - year), including their respective rankings and the performance of dynamic portfolios composed of top - ranked varieties compared with the CSI 300 Index Futures [5][7][20] Summary by Catalog 1. Price Change Description - Last week, Brent crude oil had the largest weekly price increase of 14.6690%, European Line Container Shipping had the largest monthly price increase of 18.0858%, and polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%. Among agricultural products, jujube had the largest yearly price decrease of 5.2947%; among ferrous metals, hot - rolled coil had the largest yearly price increase of 2.3164%; among non - ferrous metals, New York silver had the largest yearly price increase of 3.3171%; among energy and chemical products, polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%; in the financial sector, the Hang Seng Index had a yearly price decrease of 1.8350% [5] 2. Price Change Tables 2.1 Comprehensive Price Change Table - It shows the weekly, monthly, and yearly price changes of multiple commodity futures such as iron ore, stainless steel, and various financial indices on July 7, 2025 [7] 2.2 Weekly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in weekly price increase include polysilicon (10.7093%), European Line Container Shipping (3.0068%), and rebar (2.7425%). Those with price decreases include methanol (- 0.2909%), sugar (- 0.3110), and soybean No. 2 (- 0.3332) [8] 2.3 Monthly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in monthly price increase include polysilicon (6.0000%), European Line Container Shipping (4.6856%), and live pigs (2.9878%). Those with price decreases include coke (- 0.3561), tin (- 0.3319), and silicon ferroalloy (- 0.2974) [10] 2.4 Yearly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in yearly price increase include New York silver (26.9920%), New York gold (26.7134%), and Shanghai gold (24.6132%). Those with price decreases include polysilicon (- 12.4811), silicon ferroalloy (- 12.0085), and wire rod (- 11.8353) [12] 2.5 Two - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in two - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), New York gold (73.4387%), and Shanghai gold (66.866199). Those with price decreases include industrial silicon (- 60.1245), polyvinyl chloride (- 29.0916), and coke (- 30.2986) [14] 2.6 Three - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in three - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), Shanghai silver (92.6721%), and Shanghai gold (90.0676). Those with price decreases include rubber (- 18.6785), PTA (- 19.3067), and cotton (- 20.3440) [16] 3. Valuation Chart - The chart tracks the weekly price changes of dynamic portfolios composed of the top five and top ten weekly price - increasing varieties in the following week and compares them with the weekly price changes of the CSI 300 Index Futures [20] 4. Precipitated Capital Ranking - It shows the ranking of various commodity futures in terms of precipitated capital on July 7, 2025. The top - ranked ones include CSI 1000 Index Futures (520.6237 billion yuan), CSI 300 Index Futures (415.5635 billion yuan), and Shanghai gold (380.0917 billion yuan) [22]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from June 23 to June 27, with the black and base metal sectors leading gains, influenced by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, while fuel, crude oil, and European shipping routes faced declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel prices fell by 10.73%, crude oil by 12.02%, while lithium carbonate rose by 7.47% [1] - The black metal sector saw increases in coke by 2.67%, coking coal by 6.60%, and iron ore by 1.92% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices fell by 12.46% to $66.34 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped by 12.12% to $65.07 per barrel due to supply-demand dynamics [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand growth is expected to slow, with projections for 2025/2026 revised down to 720,000 to 740,000 barrels per day [2][3] - Analysts noted that while geopolitical tensions may support oil prices in the short term, long-term demand expectations are being adjusted downward, particularly with OPEC+ planning to discuss production levels [4] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a weekly increase of 2.47%, closing at 79,920 yuan per ton, with a volatility of 2.42% [5] - Supply remains stable with sufficient copper ore port inventories, but increased export intentions are tightening domestic supply [6] - Global copper demand is projected to double by 2035, but supply may face a significant shortfall of up to 30% [7] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 9.1% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises in May, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9] - Equipment manufacturing and "new" industries showed profit expansion, while consumer manufacturing remained sluggish [9] - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with potential support from improved infrastructure investment and declining raw material prices [9][10] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rate adjustments, with officials indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts amid economic uncertainties [12] - Recent data revisions showed a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter, raising concerns about economic growth and influencing market expectations for future Fed actions [13][14]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and cut production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of rush - export, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the ore price will generally show a weak and volatile state with short - term support [11]. - In the medium and long term, the "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - ore price trend decline" chain may appear in the second half of the year, as real estate investment is still falling at a rate of about 10%, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap, and the uncertainty of exports may gradually appear in the data after the 90 - day suspension period in the US [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On June 25, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower, oscillated and declined, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing at 702.5 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore contracts on June 25 are as follows: RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; HC2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; SS2508 closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 1.25%; I2509 closed at 702.5 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [5]. - The black - series futures' long - short positions on June 25 showed different changes. For example, the long - short position difference of I2509 was - 5985, with a deviation of - 1.41% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On June 25, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were lowered by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port were lowered by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, for the iron ore 2509 contract, the daily KDJ indicator showed a divergent trend, with the J - value continuing to decline and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator has been increasing for 3 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East has an indirect impact on iron ore, mainly through emotional shocks, and the main logic lies in its own fundamentals [11]. - From the current fundamentals, steel enterprises still maintain a good profit level, the production cut pace is tortuous, last week's daily average pig iron output increased by 0.57 million tons to 242.18 million tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply side has also increased, with the shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil rising above 30 million tons, reaching a new high since late June 2024, and the arrival volume also rising to a relatively high level in history [11]. 3.4 Industry News - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that China's economy has withstood pressure and maintained a positive trend this year, and social confidence has continued to improve. Policies such as trade - in of large - scale durable consumer goods should be effectively implemented [13]. - From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of passenger cars nationwide reached 1.269 million units, a year - on - year increase of 24% compared with the same period in June last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month; the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers reached 1.238 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a 9% increase compared with the same period last month [13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to iron ore, including prices at Qingdao Port, shipping and arrival volumes, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and production and consumption data of steel products [18][22][29][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].