美联储古尔斯比：不理解为何美联储应降息以使政府债务更便宜，其职责在于就业和物价。已经出现了 可能的干扰和模糊性，美联储需要解决这些问题。 ...

美丽大法案落地：经济与财政影响 20250709 综合所有条款内容，预计未来十年总赤字扩张约 3.25 万亿美元。此外，为应 对今年（2025 年）联邦政府债务触及法定上限问题，将债务上限从 36 万亿提 高到 41 万亿，以维持政府现金流。 为了覆盖减税带来的债务成本，相应地在 其他部门进行了支出削减，包括医疗补助补贴、奥巴马医改内容、农业部门食 品券福利，以及学生贷款和助学金政策紧缩。清洁能源相关资金授权也被取消， 总体来看这些措施将在未来几年逐步扩大支出削减力度。 对于经济影响，根据 智库及官方机构测算，本轮效果弱于 2017 年的全面下调个人所得税与企业所 得税。本次主要以延长条款为主，对居民体感影响较小。中性预测显示未来十 年 GDP 平均增长 0.5 个百分点，即每年增长 0.05 个百分点左右。Tax Foundation 测算结果偏乐观，因为该机构专注于研究不考虑大规模财政扩张 负面冲击。 2. 企业所得税：2017 年已将企业所得税率从 35%降至 21%，此次未进一 步调降，而是升级了会计准则，如研发费用投资费用化、厂房投资费用 化等，预计未来十年对赤字影响约 1 万亿美元。 3. 惩罚性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's mission is focused on employment and price stability, not on reducing government debt costs through interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve expressed confusion over the argument that the Fed should lower interest rates to reduce government debt costs [1] - The Federal Reserve's mandate is primarily concerned with employment and inflation control [1]

除了降息的时机，美联储官员还暴露了他们在关税对通胀影响上的分歧。 "到最终消费者手中时，他们发现不得不转嫁的成本更低，而且部分成本可以从利润中扣除。由于企业找到了调整的方法，这可能不会 导致消费者价格大幅上涨。" 戴利称，美国经济形势良好，经济增长和消费者支出正在放缓，但尚未减弱。通胀正朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。她仍预计今年美联储可能会两次 降息，但同时指出，政策前景存在很大的不确定性，降息需要美联储延续当前的数据趋势。她说： "我认为两次降息是可能的结果，但每个人的预测都存在不确定性。" 周四稍早，今年有FOMC会议投票权的圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆并未直接提到降息时间的预期，但强调关税对通胀的影响需要一段时间才会显 现，体现了对待降息的谨慎态度。 穆萨莱姆表示，通胀存在上行风险，现在判断关税是否会对物价产生持续影响还为时过早。迄今为止，关税对通胀的影响尚不显著，但他预计从6 月、7月、8月或9月开始，其影响将在数据中更加明显。他说： "关税问题需要时间才能解决。""有一种情况是，今年第四季度，或者明年第一季度或第二季度，关税可能仍在对经济产生影响。" 美东时间7月10日周四，2027年有美联储货币政策委员会 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, including an overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading. It details the scale, distribution, and trends of local government bond issuance and trading, as well as the participation of different investor groups. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 51.9 trillion yuan, indicating continuous market expansion [3][11]. - Among the outstanding local bonds, the proportion of new special bonds exceeded 43%, and the proportion of refinancing special bonds was 21% [3][11]. - In terms of the investment direction of special bonds, shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were the major investment fields, with stock balances of 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of July 4, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock size, with 3.42 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.15 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Anhui also had local bond stocks of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 175.91 million yuan were issued, including 29.54 million yuan of new special bonds and 0.7 million yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment fields of special bond funds [4][18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in July had reached 286.32 million yuan, accounting for 7.32% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of 7 - 10 - year local bonds was relatively high last week, reaching 49.75%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for major terms were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 17.84BP, while the spread of 20 - year local bonds over the same - term treasury bonds slightly widened to 14.9BP [4][28]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week significantly rebounded compared with two weeks ago, indicating a warming of primary bidding sentiment [4][28]. - Last week, two provinces had new issuances. Inner Mongolia issued 689 million yuan of local bonds this month, mainly with terms of 7 - 10 years; Ningxia issued 1.0703 billion yuan, with terms concentrated within 7 years. The average issuance rates were both below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of July 4, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.77%, and the spread over the same - term treasury bonds was 12.67BP, at the 18% quantile in the past 24 years. The price - difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 38% and 53% respectively [5][36]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for major terms increased slightly. The highest weekly turnover rate was for bonds over 10 years, with a reading of 1.14%. In terms of regions, Guangdong had the most trading volumes last week, with 50 transactions. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [5][41]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds reaching 3.0119 billion yuan, and the purchase proportion of bonds over 20 - 30 years reaching 81.92% [5][47].

黑龙江发行10年期其他专项地方债，规模89.0000亿元，发行利率1.7400%，边际倍数13.40倍，倍数预 期1.75； 黑龙江发行10年期一般债地方债，规模59.6794亿元，发行利率1.7000%，边际倍数6.26倍，倍数预期 1.74。 黑龙江发行5年期一般债地方债，规模12.2382亿元，发行利率1.5500%，边际倍数3.91倍，倍数预期 1.57； ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-07-10 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《策略选择"骑虎难下"？——流动 性周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 固收专题 下半年政府债供给怎么看？ ⚫ 国债发行节奏整体偏快，下半年供给压力趋于缓和 上半年普通国债发行 6.83 万亿，净融资 2.53 万亿，同比多增 3438 亿，发行期数减少、单期规模增加；特别国债发行 10550 亿，净 融资 8550 亿，同比多增 6050 亿，集中到期情况下，发行进度仍靠前。 我们估算下半年国债约有 7.78 万亿待发，预计实现净融资 3.19 万亿，下半年供给压力有望缓和。其中，普通国债下半年约有 6.94 万 亿待发，预计节奏将相对平稳。特别国债有 7450 亿待发，单期规模 或有所增加。综合来看，全部国债的发行高峰或集中于 7-9 月，单月 发行 1.3-1.5 万亿。净融资高峰有较大概率出现在 8、9、11 月。 ⚫ 化债主线切换至稳增长，下半年地方债供给料将加速 上半年地方新增一 ...

政府债净融资第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2216 亿，第 28 周（7/7-7/13）3032 亿。截至第 27 周（6/30-7/6）累计 7.9 万亿，超出去年同期 4.4 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2574 亿，第 28 周 （7/7-7/13）2714 亿。截至第 27 周（6/30-7/6）广义赤字累计 6.2 万 亿，进度 52.2%。 国债第 27 周（6/30-7/6）净融资 1999 亿，第 28 周（7/7-7/13）1929 亿。截至第 27 周（6/30-7/6）累计 3.6 万亿，进度 53.8%。 地方债净融资第 27 周（6/30-7/6）216 亿，第 28 周（7/7-7/13）1102 亿。截至第 27 周（6/30-7/6）累计 4.4 万亿，超出去年同期 2.6 万亿。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 政府债务周度观察 特殊新增专项债发行加速 新增专项债第 27 周（6/30-7/6）508 亿，第 28 周（7/7-7/13）640 亿。 截至第 27 周（6/30-7/6 ...

Core Insights - The audit report reveals significant issues regarding tax collection and local government debt, highlighting the ongoing challenges in maintaining a stable business environment and supporting the private economy [1][4]. Tax Collection Issues - The audit identified a total of 889.97 billion yuan in "over-collection" of taxes and fees, with 331.89 billion yuan collected from 631 enterprises through excessive levies on land occupation tax, value-added tax, and penalties across 28 provinces [4]. - Additionally, local governments collected 558.08 billion yuan in land transfer income through improper means, such as converting free land allocations into paid ones [4]. Local Government Debt Risks - The report emphasizes the ongoing risks associated with local government debt, noting that some regions have illegally increased hidden debts since March 2023, primarily for government investments and debt repayments [4][8]. - Specifically, five regions have added 59.09 billion yuan in hidden debts through state-owned enterprises financing construction projects, with commitments for repayment from fiscal funds [4]. Financing Platforms and Hidden Debt - Eleven regions and 15 financing platforms have raised 1.5 billion yuan in hidden debt through non-standard financial products and loans, affecting over 1,600 individuals and 45 public welfare organizations [5]. - For instance, a financing platform in Fujian has borrowed 15.02 billion yuan from local charitable organizations, some of which is allocated for government investment projects, contributing to hidden debt [5]. Misallocation of Funds - The report indicates that funds have been misallocated towards local "three guarantees" expenditures (basic livelihood, salaries, and operational costs) and repaying local debts [6][7]. - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized the importance of ensuring adequate funding for these guarantees, especially at the county level, amidst pressures from declining fiscal revenues and rising debt burdens [7]. Recommendations for Debt Management - The audit suggests enhancing government debt management, including better coordination of long-term special bonds and stricter oversight of local special bonds to mitigate risks associated with hidden debts [8]. - The audit authority has initiated corrective measures and will continue to monitor the situation, with a report on the comprehensive rectification expected by the end of the year [8].

甘肃发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模29.7557亿元，发行利率2.0400%，边际倍数1.87倍，倍数预期 2.20； 甘肃发行10年期一般债地方债，规模96.2779亿元，发行利率1.7400%，边际倍数1.26倍，倍数预期 2.07。 甘肃发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模108.9729亿元，发行利率2.0400%，边际倍数1.89倍，倍数预期 2.03； ...