Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity in the banking system amid potential tightening [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC's 1 trillion yuan MLF operation marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance, with a total net injection of 600 billion yuan in November, maintaining a high level of liquidity [2][3]. - The MLF operation is aimed at countering the expected liquidity tightening, ensuring that the funding environment remains stable and abundant [1][3][4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Following the MLF operation, market expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions have diminished [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will continue to utilize MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity, signaling a sustained supportive monetary policy stance [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The ongoing liquidity support is seen as essential for facilitating government bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply, especially in light of recent economic downturns [3][4][8]. - The anticipated issuance of additional local government bonds and the completion of new policy financial instruments are expected to further influence liquidity dynamics in the banking system [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices tumbled collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices showing a random walk. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, leading to a high - opening and low - closing situation for A - shares. On Friday, the overnight plunge in US tech stocks dragged down Asia - Pacific stock markets. Market trading activity significantly declined compared to last week. Domestically, economic fundamentals were weak in October, and financial data showed a larger decline in M1 growth than M2. The unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy, and the market is expected to be in a random walk state with stock indices remaining volatile [5][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 dropped 3.74% this week, IH2512 fell 2.77%, IC2512 declined 5.15%, and IM2512 decreased 4.80%. Spot: The CSI 300 dropped 3.77%, the SSE 50 fell 2.72%, the CSI 500 declined 5.78%, and the CSI 1000 decreased 5.80% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on last month's interest - rate cut. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some believed a December rate cut "would likely be appropriate". There was near - unanimity on stopping the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The LPR remained unchanged on November 20. US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - Domestic: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13%, the STAR 50 declined 5.54%, the SME 100 decreased 5.10%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 6.15%. Overseas (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 dropped 2.90%, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.76%, the Hang Seng Index declined 5.09%, and the Nikkei 225 decreased 3.48% [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Industry sectors all declined, with the power equipment and comprehensive sectors weakening significantly. Industry main funds generally had a net outflow, with a large net outflow from the power equipment sector and a small net inflow in the communication sector [19][23]. 3.3.3 Other Market Data - SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with the capital price at a low level. This week, major shareholders had a net secondary - market reduction of 11.471 billion yuan, and the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 100.946 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 814.515 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts converged [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock - index futures declined this week. The domestic economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy. The market is in a vacuum of macro - data, earnings, and policies, and is expected to show a random walk with stock indices remaining volatile [87].

值得关注的是，LPR报价已连续六个月保持不变。究其原因，一方面是作为LPR定价"锚"的7天期逆回 购利率连续多月保持稳定；另一方面，银行受净息差等因素影响，下调LPR报价加点的动力不足。 当前，市场对降准降息预期已有减弱。中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏向21世纪经济报道记者表 示，"目前市场流动性总体较为充裕，央行通过公开市场操作精准调控流动性，利率水平也处于较低水 平，银行净息差本身较低，也需要维持合理的净息差更好服务实体经济。" LPR维持不变 2019年8月，央行推进贷款利率市场化改革。改革后的LPR由各报价行按照对最优质客户执行的贷款利 率，于每月20日（遇节假日顺延）以公开市场操作利率（主要指七天逆回购操作利率）加点形成的方式 报价。加点幅度则主要取决于各行自身资金成本、市场供求、风险溢价等因素。 目前，LPR已经成为银行贷款利率的定价基准，金融机构绝大部分贷款已参考LPR进行定价，直接影响 着各类经营主体融资成本。LPR 包含1年期与5年期以上两个品种，前者主要短期经营贷与消费贷，后 者则与房贷等长期限贷款密切相关。 根据11月最新报价，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，两个期限品 ...

作者丨边万莉 唐婧 编辑丨包芳鸣 （图片来源：中国人民银行） LPR维持不变 2019年8月，央行推进贷款利率市场化改革。改革后的LPR由各报价行按照对最优质客户执行的贷款利 率，于每月20日（遇节假日顺延）以公开市场操作利率（主要指七天逆回购操作利率）加点形成的方式 报价。加点幅度则主要取决于各行自身资金成本、市场供求、风险溢价等因素。 目前，LPR已经成为银行贷款利率的定价基准，金融机构绝大部分贷款已参考LPR进行定价，直接影响 着各类经营主体融资成本。LPR 包含1年期与5年期以上两个品种，前者主要短期经营贷与消费贷，后 者则与房贷等长期限贷款密切相关。 11月20日，最新一期LPR报价出炉。中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年10月20日 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR 之前有效。 值得关注的是，LPR报价已连续六个月保持不变。究其原因，一方面是作为LPR定价"锚"的7天期逆回 购利率连续多月保持稳定；另一方面，银行受净息差等因素影响，下调LPR报价加点的动力不足。 当前，市场对降准降息预期已有减弱。中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for six consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stable market conditions and limited motivation for banks to lower rates [1][4][5]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has been stable due to the consistent 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained at 1.40% since May [4][5]. - Market expectations for rate cuts have diminished, as liquidity is generally ample and banks need to maintain reasonable net interest margins to better serve the real economy [1][8]. Group 2: Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment has shown strength, with exports exceeding expectations and rapid development in new productive sectors, leading to reduced demand for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][8]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a high level of credit resource supply [6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The central bank's recent report emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy while maintaining a focus on structural optimization and balancing short-term fluctuations with long-term goals [9][10]. - There is a shift towards more precise and coordinated monetary policy, with an emphasis on directing financial resources to key areas such as technological innovation and green development [10].

2025.11. 20 本文字数：913，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月，两个期限品种的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价保持不变，符合市场预期，这也是LPR连续6 个月保持不变。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年 期以上LPR为3.5%。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净 息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民 融资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并 非当务之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来 出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下 降，货币政策保持较强定力。 但受内外部多重因素影响，近期经济增长动能有所回落，其中，10月国内投资、消费、工业生产等 宏观数据下行势头引发关注，出口增速由正 ...

银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净息差 为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民融 资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务 之急。 央行在三季度货币政策执行报告专栏中提出，"保持合理的利率比价关系"。董希淼认为，这表明，央行 将审慎对待利率变化，引导市场减少资金空转套利，畅通货币政策传导，增强政策的有效性。未来一段 时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可 能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步 大幅度降准降息的预期。 11月，两个期限品种的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价保持不变，符合市场预期，这也是LPR连续6个 月保持不变。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以 上LPR为3.5%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为， ...

11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。至此，LPR两个品种报价已连续6个月保持不 变。 多位受访的业内人士指出，本月LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。展望未来，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有 一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。市场对未来大幅度降准降息的预期有所减弱。下一阶段，货 币政策或将更加注重精准、协同和均衡。 缺乏下调动力 LPR报价继续"按兵不动" LPR报价持续"按兵不动"，业内人士指出，这符合市场预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7 天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR报价较难下降。 东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青指出，尽管近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主 要中长端市场利率稳中有降，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有下行，但在商业银行净息差处于历史 最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 "6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快 发展等推动。"王青指出， ...

着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度经济运行，稳增长政策如何接续发力？ 央行在三季度货币政策执行报告专栏中提出，"保持合理的利率比价关系"。董希淼认为，这表明，央行 将审慎对待利率变化，引导市场减少资金空转套利，畅通货币政策传导，增强政策的有效性。未来一段 时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可 能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步 大幅度降准降息的预期。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净息差 为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民融 资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务 之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出 口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下降， 货币政策保持较强定 ...