聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 涨跌 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(9月) | 72.51 | 70.04 | 2.47 | 3.5% | POY150/48价格 | 6720 | 6715 | ટ | 0.1% | 美元/桶 | 5 | 3.7% | FDY150/96价格 | WTI原油(9月) | 66.71 | 2.50 | 7015 | 7010 | 0.1% | 69.21 | | | 0 | 1.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | CFR日本石脑油 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range fluctuations, with attention to the switch of macroeconomic sentiment [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures market shows a strong upward trend [13]. - Polysilicon: Driven by news, the futures market shows a strong upward trend [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan. Trading volumes and price changes over different time intervals are provided [5]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on various nickel and stainless - steel products such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel sheets are presented, including prices, spreads, and profit margins [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian IMIP industrial park, and audits and potential fines are planned [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved production target for Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of its EF lines, affecting about 1,900 metal tons of nickel - iron output per month [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting in October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts, as well as other related indicators such as basis and spreads, are provided [10]. - **Industry Chain**: Prices of raw materials like lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica, and lithium - salt products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, are presented [10]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 668 yuan/ton [11]. - China issued 1,121 energy - storage project lists in the first half of 2025, with a total installed capacity of over 198.145GW [12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the Si2509 and PS2509 contracts, as well as spreads, basis, and cost data, are provided [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Information on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is presented [14]. Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration of China will accelerate the construction of the new - energy power - market system and promote the development of supporting policies [15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [16].

2025年7月29日 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 聚烯烃产业期现日报 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently experiencing a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, the price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 23.42 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16775 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10525 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the day, the Shanghai lead futures showed a weak and volatile trend. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16960 yuan/ton and closed at 16915 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 72526 lots, a change of 25763 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest for the whole trading day was 70546 lots, a change of - 2781 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17085 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16985 yuan/ton and closed at 16945 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On July 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 7.2 million tons, a change of 0.03 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 28, the LME lead inventory was 263650 tons, a change of - 3050 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月29日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 210 | 253 | -43 | - ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 供需变化不大 情绪主导震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ⚫ 需求端：上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加1.13个百分 点，日均铁水产量 242.23万吨，环比上周减少0.21 万吨，同比去年增加2.62万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运量环比小幅回升，处于近三年 同期偏高水平。上周全球铁矿石发运总量3109.1万 吨，环比增加122.0万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口 进口铁矿库存14395.68万吨，环比增加14.17万吨； 日均疏港量329.33万吨，降9.43万吨。 ⚫ 总体上，上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。供应端，上周海外发运量环比小 幅回升，处于近三年同期偏高水 ...

【冠通研究】 关注宏观情绪变化 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 25 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走承压运行，何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸 会谈，中美谈判预期目前偏乐观，但不排除谈判推迟可能性。下周将迎来 50%关税的落 地期限，落地情况可能干扰市场波动幅度 供给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，现货粗炼 费为-43.16 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。冶炼厂粗炼费、精炼费本周均企 稳回升，7 月一家冶炼企业有检修计划，涉及精炼产能 15 万吨，对精炼铜产量影响有 限。SMM 预计 7 月国内电解铜产量环比增加 1.55 万吨，升幅为 1.37%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。 下游处于相对淡季，虽价格下跌后报价升水走强，但交投情绪依然偏弱，终端工业产品 如空调等均环比产量减少，下游按需跟进，市场观望情绪浓厚，上期所库存去化，终端 需求依然有韧性。综合来看，下周市场将迎来中美贸易谈判及关税的落地期限，宏观干 扰下，行情不确定性高，基本面库存低位支撑价格行情 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish operation [1] - Iron Ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating upward [1] - Coke: Oscillating upward [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures closed lower, with spot prices down and trading volume dropping. Rebar production declined slightly, inventory decreased again, and apparent demand rebounded. Policy news boosted market sentiment, but actual supply and demand weakened. The short-term rebar futures are expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract decreased. Australian shipments fell, Brazilian shipments rose, and non-mainstream country shipments increased significantly. Iron ore inventory at 47 ports continued to decline. High hot metal production supported prices. Affected by macro sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures rose. Spot prices increased, and market trading was active. A notice on promoting stable coal supply was confirmed. High blast furnace utilization in steel mills improved coke demand, and the second round of coke price increases was implemented. Coking coal is expected to oscillate upward in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures rose. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers' profits improved, but rising coking coal costs led to a decline in profits, and some producers continued to limit production. Steel mills' high utilization rate increased coke consumption, and their restocking willingness was strong. Coke is expected to oscillate upward in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures fluctuated widely. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and the black sector showed mixed performance. Supply is expected to gradually increase, while demand hit a five-year low. Cost support strengthened. The focus is on macro and policy implementation, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated higher. The black sector showed some divergence, and the expected adjustment of electricity prices in major production areas drove up prices. Supply is expected to increase, while demand hit a multi-year low. The main driving force of the fundamentals lies in the expected change in costs. The short-term increase is expected to gradually slow down [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For different varieties, the contract spreads between different months showed various changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being -50.0 with a 10.0 increase [4]. - Basis: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 106.0 with a 43.0 increase [4]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different varieties and in different regions had different changes, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar increasing by 10.0 to 3380.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The report also provided data on profits and spreads, such as the rebar's futures profit being 37.4 with a -19.9 decrease [4]. Group 4: Summary of Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presented the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][9] - Main Contract Basis: It showed the basis of main contracts of different commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The spreads between different contracts of each commodity were presented, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [25] - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: The report included spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and the ratio between rebar and iron ore [40] - Rebar Profits: Data on rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit were shown [45] Group 5: Introduction of the Black Research Team - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [52][53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and weak manner, with the focus shifting downward [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream starts [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 74.1 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production cuts, with a daily output reduction of about 1.62 tons for some [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price support is weak [2] Aluminum - From January to June, China's cumulative import of bauxite increased by 34% year - on - year. With some enterprises starting maintenance in late July, the operating capacity of alumina may decline, while the demand in the southwest region will increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects. However, the supply of alumina is still relatively loose overall [2] - As of July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 49.80 tons, with fluctuations. The reduction of aluminum rod production at the end of the month led to an increase in ingot production, and the increase in supply was the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - Macro risks are increasing, and short - term policy boosts the metal price. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the range, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]