Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, supported by low inventory and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea, but limited by the off-season pressure on the demand side [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Content Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will mostly shut down for maintenance from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some steel mills [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - According to data on June 20, the weekly arrival of bauxite at domestic ports was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly departure of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [2]. - In early June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly operating rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. Year - on - year, it decreased by 307,000 tons compared to last year and 69,000 tons compared to 2023, remaining at a near - three - year low [2]. - There is a slight expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum in June. The overall low domestic ingot casting volume is expected to maintain the inventory decline trend. However, due to the expectation of some aluminum plants to increase ingot casting, there has been a slight increase in supply and shipments in the northwest, and due to price differences, inter - regional transfers have increased the arrival volume this week, relieving the tight supply of marketable goods to some extent [2]. - The high - level and strong operation of aluminum prices will inevitably suppress domestic demand during the off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to weaken, resulting in a slowdown in the overall domestic inventory decline in the second half of the month [2]. - Overseas macro instability persists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in ore prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3].

瑞达期货（002961）表示，随着天气转热，时令鲜果上市，对红枣等滋补类产品形成替代，红枣需求季 节性淡季，库存消化缓慢，压力不断凸显，抑制枣价上方空间。据Mysteel农产品调研数据统计本周36 家样本点物理库存在10693吨，较上周减少15吨，环比减少0.14%，同比增加69.51%，本周样本点库存 小幅减少。市场交易氛围一般，年度消费低谷期关注产区新季长势。 中辉期货分析称，市场焦点在新季生长情况，当前新季枣树生产较为良好，天气端尚无明显负面影响， 市场预期今年同比减少但库存处历史高位。需求方面，季度大方向需求走弱预期不改，近期市场无明显 增量，预计郑枣短期区间运作，持续关注天气扰动。 目前来看，红枣行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于红枣后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 混沌天成期货指出，河北崔尔庄市场停车区到货4车，到货等外成品均有，客商按需采购；广东如意坊 市场到货4车，市场阴雨天气持续，客商按需采购，早市成交一般；自明日结算时起，红枣期货合约的 交易保证金标准调整为9%，涨跌停板幅度调整为8%；受宏观情绪带动，近期盘面由底部小幅反弹，鉴 于库存高位影响，价格处于相对低位，目前处于 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, with the same implication as hot rolled coil [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, a mixed signal with some bullish drivers but unclear overall trend [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, similar to coke [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish driver but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and international trade situations. Some products are expected to have short - term oscillations, while the long - term outlook is influenced by factors like terminal demand and policy changes [1][2] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is divided. Thread steel is in the off - season with declining demand and slower inventory reduction. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling while production is rising and inventory is accumulating. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing but still high, and the negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. The downstream industries have different performances, with limited improvement in infrastructure, unstable real - estate sales, and high growth in automobile production and sales. The market rebounds in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upside [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market shows a rising trend today. The supply is strong with potential seasonal growth, and the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. The demand is weak in the off - season, but the short - term reduction in iron - water production is limited, and there is still mid - term negative feedback risk. The market sentiment has improved due to Sino - US talks, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices are oscillating. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing, but coke production is still high due to existing profits. The overall inventory is slightly rising, and traders have no purchasing actions. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price rebounds under certain conditions. The Sino - US tariff issue has a large impact [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are also oscillating. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the future trend of production - end inventory is uncertain. Similar to coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price rebounds under certain circumstances. The Sino - US tariff issue needs continuous attention [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese may start an independent market. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production is rising. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further due to increased supply and inventory. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the supply of silicon manganese is slightly increasing. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices are mainly driven by coking coal. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing. The export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help with inventory reduction, and the sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - **Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - **Urea**: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - **LPG**: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The finished steel is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Content Finished Steel - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and overhaul from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished steel continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2]. Aluminum Ingot - Overseas data shows that the better - than - expected employment growth in the US in May indicates that the Fed may wait longer to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September and would cut them twice in 2025, reducing the bet on a third rate cut [1]. - As of this Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 87.27 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina increased by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% compared with last week [2]. - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing is strong, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with last week. The aluminum cable and wire sector is weak, and attention should be paid to the next delivery cycle and market segment orders [2]. - On June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the beginning of the week and 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The post - holiday inventory accumulation is controllable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term [2].

Report Summary - The rubber market rebounded this week due to improved macro - sentiment, but the rebound was limited by fundamental pressures. The raw material cost support weakened, and the downstream tire demand was expected to be weak. The price was supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement, and future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.802 million, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.329 million, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.797 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The auto consumption index in May 2025 was 81.6, slightly higher than the previous month, and the market in June was expected to be basically flat or slightly increase compared with May [7]. - The weekly rainfall in the world's main natural rubber producing areas decreased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas in the next two weeks would also decrease, reducing the impact on rubber tapping [7]. - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [7][10]. - The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.5%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 32.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 0.8% [7]. Negative Factors - The price of natural rubber raw materials weakened [7]. - The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly [7]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, was weakly stable [7]. - Butadiene rubber traders reduced their inventory slightly, while factories showed a trend of inventory accumulation [7]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of tires declined [7]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weak [10]. - The expectation of rubber tapping recovery weakened the support of natural rubber raw materials [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of June 5, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - lump price was 44.7 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price in Yunnan, China was 12,700 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials at home and abroad decreased compared with the previous week, and the cost support of rubber weakened [12]. Qingdao Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 86,887 tons, a decrease of 3,607 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 522,778 tons, a decrease of 1,312 tons. The downstream restocked before the Dragon Boat Festival, driving a slight reduction in inventory [13]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene market fell slightly and then stabilized. The demand side dragged down the market, but some device overhauls and limited imports supported the market. As of June 5, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank price in the main ports of East China was about 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 934.2857 yuan/ton, and the price decline increased the loss of production enterprises [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of June 6, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5,800 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from the previous week. The downstream restocking enthusiasm was not high [17]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival, the capacity utilization rate decreased. The replacement demand for all - steel tires may increase with rising temperatures, but the space was limited due to low freight prices. The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved compared with last year, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult [19]. Contract Spread - As of June 5, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract showed a convergence trend, and the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract fluctuated within a range [21]. Market Outlook - The future tire demand is expected to be weak, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is difficult to reach the high level of the same period last year. The cost support of raw materials has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has been improved by the call between Chinese and US leaders. Overall, the downstream demand is weaker than last year, limiting the upside of prices. The raw material support has weakened in the short term, but the prices are supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement. Future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as reduced production, seasonal decline in demand, high supply, and potential negative feedback [2][3]. - The double - coking market has a marginal reduction in coking coal supply, but the inventory pressure remains. The current price increase is considered a phased rebound, and the improvement of the supply - demand relationship needs further observation [8]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate as the core factors driving price changes are weak, and there will be repeated games in the off - season [12]. - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the small - sample output of rebar was 218.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.05 million tons, and the apparent demand was 229.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8%), a week - on - week decrease of 19.65 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 328.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 million tons, and the apparent demand was 320.92 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 2.86%), a week - on - week decrease of 6.01 million tons. The total inventory increased by 7.83 million tons. The overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.79 million tons. In late May, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.091 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector rose in the night session yesterday. Steel production decreased overall this week. Entering the off - season, the apparent demand for steel declined rapidly, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The supply is still high, and coal - coke prices drag down the cost of steel. There is a risk of negative feedback, and the steel price trend is downward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Hold the short position on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. It is recommended to wait and see for options [3][6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.899 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19 million tons. The raw coal inventory was 6.708 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 297 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 745 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18 million tons. The clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 77 million tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points. The average daily pig - iron output was 2.418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 60.5 million tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, the macro - sentiment improved, and the coking coal price rebounded significantly in the night session. The coking coal price still showed a slight decline in the spot market, and the third - round price cut of coke has been partially implemented. The supply of coking coal has a marginal reduction, but the inventory pressure remains. It is considered a phased rebound for now [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see mainly, or try short positions lightly at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [8]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 247,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US trade deficit in April was $61.6 billion, the smallest since August 2023. The ECB cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 728 yuan (-5), and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 64 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 1.07% in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and it is in the seasonal peak of shipments. On the demand side, the pig - iron output in May was at a high level, and the terminal demand is resilient. The market may repeatedly game on the weak reality in the off - season, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate. Use 9/1 positive spreads for arbitrage mainly. Wait and see for options [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: A silicon - manganese plant in Shanxi reduced production by 50 tons per day in June. On the evening of June 5, the Chinese and US presidents had a phone call, and the atmosphere was positive [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: On May 5, the spot price of silicon iron was stable with a weak trend. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand from the steel industry has declined. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The silicon iron is expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment. The manganese - ore price was weak on May 5. The supply of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the demand was suppressed. The manganese - silicon market also rebounds following the macro - sentiment [15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The ferroalloy is expected to rebound in the short term following the macro - sentiment. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell call options at high prices [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-06 宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压⼒，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，⽇盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性⾛弱，⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但⾼度有限。 ⿊⾊：宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压力，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，日盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性走弱，目前电炉和部分高炉已开始亏损，铁水产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但高度有限。 1、铁元素方面，供应端海外增量释放不及预期，全年累计发运同比 下降，且新项目爬坡放缓，全年增量下调；需求端钢企盈利率持稳， 铁水微降，预计短期可 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil continue to be weak due to the drag of macro sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 2,928 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-1.18%); the trading volume was 1,553,663 lots, and the open interest was 2,297,854 lots with an increase of 1,778 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,052 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.04%); the trading volume was 594,311 lots, and the open interest was 1,588,097 lots with an increase of 9,572 lots [3] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and some other regions decreased, while prices in Beijing and Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai remained unchanged, while prices in Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased. The price of Tangshan billet decreased by 30 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 3 yuan to 162 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 increased by 24 yuan to 118 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed to varying degrees [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - On June 3, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024, with an expected value of 50.7 and a previous value of 50.4 [3] - According to the weekly data from Steel Union on May 29, in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 8.41 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 23.17 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.38 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 32.94 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 1.55 tons, hot-rolled coil demand increased by 13.87 tons, and the total demand of five major varieties increased by 9.23 tons [3][5] - In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.199 million tons (a 0.3% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period); 19.82 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 0.4% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period); and 21.24 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.124 million tons (a 1.9% increase in daily output compared to the previous period) [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is -1, and that of hot-rolled coil is also -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]

铁矿今日盘面反弹。 供应端，全球发运正常波动，目前仍处于季节性偏强阶段，下半年产能释放的预期依然存在。 国内到港量 未来存在回升预期，全国港口库存继续去化的空间相对有限。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，铁水产量逐步高位回落，目前钢厂 盈利率尚可，中美贸易处于窗口期，我们预计铁水短期减产的空间相对有限。整体来看，铁矿供需存在一定边际走弱压力，外 部贸易有进一步缓和迹象，市场情绪有所好转，我们认为矿价走势以震荡为主。 | | | | Milli | 国际期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 ...