Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: Amid Sino - US trade frictions, market risk preferences may be suppressed in the short - term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is affected by the strong stock market, and gold and silver maintain their strength due to geopolitical and policy factors [2]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, the shipping index is short - term strong, while steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors, and most chemical products are under downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index** - **Trend**: Sino - US trade frictions lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. The export chain is warming up, and the index rebounds with shrinking volume [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. **Treasury Bonds** - **Trend**: The 10 - year Treasury bond has different values at different interest rate levels. The short - term bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within the range, and the T2512 fluctuation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3 [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Trend**: Gold remains strong before the geopolitical conflict eases and the US policy situation becomes clear. Silver also maintains its strength due to slow overseas EFP conversion progress [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in gold and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Keep a long - buying idea for silver above 11000 yuan [2]. **Shipping Index (EC - European Line)** - **Trend**: The short - term trend is strong and fluctuating [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously go long [2]. **Steel** - **Trend**: Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the steel market is converging [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the month - spread should be short - sold at high prices. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is converging [2]. **Iron Ore** - **Trend**: Supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the market is turning weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the range is between 750 - 800. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Trend**: After the holiday, the coal price in the producing areas is weak, and the downstream replenishment demand is weakening. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the holiday, but further increases are difficult [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1080 - 1200. Go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1550 - 1700. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Trend**: Copper prices fluctuate, alumina cost support is loosening, aluminum and its alloys maintain high - level oscillations, zinc prices have limited support, tin prices are weak, nickel prices oscillate, and stainless steel demand is insufficient [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For copper, pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000. For other metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their trends, such as waiting for buying opportunities for tin [2]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Trend**: Oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and pessimistic IEA reports. Most chemical products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given for each product, such as short - selling at high prices, holding short positions, and conducting arbitrage operations [2]. **Agricultural Products** - **Trend**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar, cotton, and eggs are weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding 3 - 7 reverse spreads for live pigs [2]. **Special and New Energy Commodities** - **Trend**: Glass production and sales are average, rubber is affected by the peak production season, industrial silicon prices are weak, polysilicon prices are rising, and lithium carbonate maintains oscillations [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding long positions for polysilicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The valuation is neutral, and short - term risk appetite may be affected. With the resurgence of Sino - US tariff disputes, the black sector may be affected by market risk appetite. In the short term, attention should be paid to APEC, trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, and the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the industry, it is expected that steel will return to de - stocking next week, and the demand intensity in the "Silver October" needs to be observed. Otherwise, there may be concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: With recent macro - level negative news, the market sentiment is not optimistic, and the prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon are likely to decline. The supply of silicon ferroalloy is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is neutral. The supply of manganese silicon is high, demand is average, and inventory is at a high level. Although short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, there are still medium - term concerns [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Sino - US trade friction escalated, the market risk appetite weakened. Although the spot of coking coal and coke is strong, the expectation has turned weak. The market is cautious about terminal demand after the festival. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are still tight with some support below, but the impact of steel de - stocking on them needs to be observed [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply data has not been significantly affected. The recent intensification of trade conflicts has hit risk assets, but the impact is less than in April. If there is no production reduction, high - level hot metal in the second half of the year may lead to an oversupply of iron ore in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Category Price and Spread Information - **Futures Closing Prices**: On October 10, for far - month contracts, HC2605 was 12605 yuan/ton, JM2605 was 1819 yuan/ton, RB2605 was 3159 yuan/ton, and J2605 was 3292 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, HC2601 was 1666.5 yuan/ton, RB2601 was 3103 yuan/ton, etc. There were also corresponding changes in prices and spreads such as cross - month spreads, disk profits, and basis [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 10, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, Shanghai threaded steel was 3260 yuan/ton, etc., and there were corresponding price changes [1]. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel in the 01 contract is below 150 for long - position opportunities. Conduct rolling reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: Short - position allocation on rallies is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: It is advisable to wait and see mainly [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is historically a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets often manifests at year-end [2][8][10] - In the baseline scenario, the GDP growth rate for the third quarter is estimated to be around 4.9%, leading to a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.2% for the first three quarters, which exceeds the annual target of around 5% [10][11] - The report suggests that even if the economy continues to show moderate decline in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not significantly deviate from the central level, the economic growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][12] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter provides a time window for concentrated project commencement in the fourth quarter, which can leverage local matching investments and potentially generate a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report indicates that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, suggesting that the pressure to achieve annual targets is relatively low, and the focus of policies may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing large-scale incremental stimulus measures [11][18] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure, with the report noting that negative sentiments have been largely priced in, making emotional recovery a key logic for recent market trends [4][14][18]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "bull flattening" trend in the fourth quarter, characterized by declining yields and a flattening yield curve, with a focus on certain returns and structural opportunities [2][6]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Bond Market Adjustment - In the third quarter, the bond market experienced a range-bound adjustment, particularly in September, where the 30-year government bond yield rose by approximately 10 basis points, leading to a bear steepening of the yield curve [4]. - The bond market's performance in September was primarily influenced by two factors: overall market risk appetite suppressing bond performance and marginal changes in policy expectations, with the central bank maintaining liquidity but investors losing confidence in long-term bonds due to anticipated policy shifts [4][6]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations also contributed to market disturbances, raising concerns about potential redemptions from bond funds [4][6]. Group 2: Outlook for the Fourth Quarter - The bond market is expected to improve in the fourth quarter compared to the third, although uncertainties remain. The central bank may restart government bond purchases and utilize tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support the market [7][8]. - The overall monetary policy environment remains supportive, but there are signs of "deposit migration" that could affect banks' bond allocation capabilities. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance's early issuance of local government debt limits may exert supply pressure on government bonds [7][8]. - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.85%, with a tendency for long-term rates to decline while short-term rates may be influenced by policy rate guidance [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Structural Opportunities - In the current volatile bond market, investment strategies should focus on coupon income while being cautious about duration, paying close attention to policy changes and structural opportunities [10]. - The probability of interest rate cuts remains, and investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and their impacts on the bond market [10][11]. - The bond market's risk of credit spread adjustments persists, and investors should focus on medium to short-duration credit bonds to secure more certain returns [10][11]. - The bond market's odds and cost-effectiveness have improved following significant declines since July, with potential for a rebound as risks associated with redemptions diminish [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a downward adjustment in early trading, with all three major indices declining, and the CSI A500 index falling by 1.56% [1]. Market Performance - In the market, sectors such as batteries and semiconductors saw collective adjustments, while the focus shifted to electric grid equipment, nuclear power, and military industries [2]. - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index dropped over 1%, with 13 related ETFs having transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, and 4 surpassing 2.9 billion yuan. The transaction volumes for A500 ETF fund, CSI A500 ETF, and A500 ETF Huatai-PB were 3.748 billion yuan, 3.214 billion yuan, and 2.986 billion yuan respectively [2]. Economic Outlook - A brokerage firm indicated that with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle in October, the global liquidity environment is expected to become more accommodative, which may broaden the operational space for domestic monetary policy. This has led to increased market expectations for subsequent easing measures from the central bank, potentially boosting market risk appetite [2]. - However, the increasing congestion in previously popular sectors may heighten short-term market volatility risks. Based on this assessment, a balanced investment strategy incorporating both growth and value styles is recommended [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the federal government shutdown has disrupted official economic data, leading to average market demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The first - stage cease - fire in Gaza has reduced global risk - aversion. Domestically, poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing global stock markets to rise. The central bank's large - scale MLF renewal has ensured market liquidity, and the introduction of multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans has increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and future focus should be on Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds will oscillate; among commodities, black metals will oscillate, non - ferrous metals will oscillate strongly, energy and chemicals will oscillate, and precious metals will oscillate strongly at a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The federal government shutdown has disrupted economic data, resulting in average demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The Gaza cease - fire has reduced risk - aversion [3]. - Domestic: Poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased Fed rate - cut expectations, leading to a rise in global stock markets. The central bank's MLF renewal has ensured liquidity, and industry growth - stabilizing plans have increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite [3][4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, and rare earths, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Supported by factors like US economic data and domestic policies, the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volumes. The rise of overseas non - ferrous and precious metals during the holiday has boosted market risk appetite. However, real demand is weak, with a 127 - million - ton increase in the inventory of five major steel products during the holiday, exceeding the five - year average. After late October, demand may further weaken. Supply is expected to remain high as steel mills' profits are still acceptable, and the logic of compressing steel mill profits will continue. The steel market is likely to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to strengthen. The news of long - term contract negotiations has increased expectations of supply contraction. Ore demand remains strong as the daily average pig iron output is above 2.4 million tons. During the holiday, global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.96 million tons, while arrivals increased by 2.482 million tons, and port inventories increased by 1.69 million tons. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, the short - term probability of actual negative feedback is low as the proportion of profitable steel mills is over 56%. Iron ore prices will oscillate within a range after the holiday, with negative feedback risks from late October to November [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - LME copper has broken through and risen due to concerns about tight global copper supply. An accident at the Grasberg mine has affected production by 270,000 tons, with a plan to resume production in mid - 2026 and fully recover in 2027. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, with a 11.62% year - on - year increase in September, but demand is facing challenges as previous demand - boosting factors weaken. Copper de - stocking has not met expectations, and the US economic situation needs to be monitored [8]. Aluminum - It was previously expected that SHFE aluminum would stabilize and oscillate within a 200 - 300 - point range, which has basically come true. During the holiday, the rise in copper prices has boosted aluminum prices, but on Thursday, SHFE aluminum underperformed, and the domestic - foreign price difference has decreased significantly. Domestic aluminum social inventories have accumulated during the holiday, exceeding expectations. With rigid supply and weakening demand, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8][9]. Tin - LME tin has soared due to the rise in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining, but the upward space is limited. The price is supported by tight ore supply and low smelting operating rates due to maintenance at a large Yunnan smelter. However, smelters are expected to resume production in October, and ore supply will increase after November. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term but face upward pressure [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the main carbonate lithium 2511 contract rose 0.27%, with a settlement price of 73,700 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 1,559 lots, with a total position of 677,900 lots. The supply and demand of carbonate lithium are both increasing, with strong seasonal demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to oscillate, and the upper pressure range should be monitored [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.29%, with a settlement price of 8,645 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 8,057 lots, with a total position of 407,800 lots. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts at the end of November. The market is expected to oscillate, and the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises should be monitored [10]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract had a 0% increase, with a settlement price of 50,185 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 7,663 lots, with a total position of 234,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November. With high supply and low demand, the market is waiting for the implementation of state - reserve purchase news, and the support of spot prices should be monitored [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - After Israel reached an agreement with Hamas on hostage release and implemented a cease - fire, crude oil prices have declined as OPEC+ increases supply and demand lacks new positive signals. The strengthening of the US dollar has also reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities [12]. Asphalt - As crude oil prices decline again, asphalt shows signs of breaking through the lower limit. The peak - season demand is almost over, and the pressure of over - supply remains. The basis is still falling, and there is some pressure for social inventory accumulation, while factory inventory is slightly increasing. The profit has recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. The impact of OPEC+ production increase on crude oil prices and the support of crude oil prices should be monitored [12][13]. PX - The change in PX is limited. The previous changes in Xinjiang's facilities have little impact on the market. The cost support from crude oil remains, but the small positive impact of increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased to $218, and the external PX price has fallen to $804. PTA's short - term processing fee has been squeezed, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. With the decline of the polyester market, PX may oscillate weakly but has some support at the bottom [13]. PTA - The peak - season demand is lower than expected, with low terminal orders and low operating rates of looms. The rumor of production cuts by leading PTA manufacturers has been disproven, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. There is also a possibility that the restart of maintenance facilities will be postponed. The market has some support at the previous low but faces long - term downward pressure [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol continues to decline and oscillates at a low level. Similar to PTA, it faces challenges in downstream demand, with high short - term operating rates and new production capacity pressure. Although the current inventory is low, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward space for price rebound is limited in the medium term [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The LLDPE transaction price is 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with prices in the North and East regions falling. Supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season, but the post - holiday inventory accumulation suppresses prices. With new capacity coming on - line, the transition to the off - season, and the decline of crude oil prices, the price of PE is expected to decline [14]. Urea - The urea market is weakly declining. The supply - demand situation is under pressure. During the National Day holiday, most factories maintained stable prices, fulfilling previous orders. After the holiday, production is expected to remain above 190,000 tons per day. The agricultural demand recovery is slow due to rainfall, and industrial demand is weak. Although there is potential support from reserve demand and Indian tenders, the overall support is limited. The price may decline slightly in the short term, and the export policy after the holiday should be monitored [14][15]. Methanol - The methanol market in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has acceptable trading. The price in Inner Mongolia's northern line has decreased by 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the southern line is stable. In Jiangsu, the methanol market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. After the holiday, methanol inventory has accumulated, and the high port inventory suppresses prices. There is no effective way to reduce inventory in the short term, but it is expected to oscillate weakly with support from domestic and foreign gas - restriction expectations. Opportunities for long - term long positions should be awaited [14]. PP - The market trading atmosphere is good, with the mainstream price of East China's drawn wire at 6,650 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefins has increased by 270,000 tons. With increasing supply pressure, average downstream demand, and increasing inventory pressure, combined with the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of PP is expected to decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The prospects of Sino - US soybean trade and the MFP program will be the main focus of the oil - and - oilseed market. After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming US soybean imports. If a phased arrangement is reached in the coming weeks, the possibility of resuming trade will increase. The implementation of the MFP program will reduce farmers' holding costs and relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, which is positive for CBOT soybeans [16]. Hogs - After the holiday, the demand for hogs will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork purchase - and - storage dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected supply - demand gap of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is negative for soybean meal. In the short term, the phased replenishment of soybean meal may increase, and the cost support for near - month soybean meal will strengthen as the pressure of concentrated US soybean listing eases. The spread between near - and far - month contracts may widen. For rapeseed meal, the seasonal impact on imported rapeseed meal has significantly shrunk, and domestic rapeseed inventory is running out. Before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and its market is mainly led by soybean meal [18]. Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with the order of strength being rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Rapeseed oil inventory will be depleted rapidly before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, providing support. Palm oil is mainly driven by cost, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude oil prices, and strong related oils providing additional support. Soybean oil may experience seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday and may perform relatively weakly [18]. Corn - The room for the price decline of new corn in the Northeast after the holiday may be limited. The increase in corn prices in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, and the demand for acquisition has increased. More acquisition entities will enter the market after the holiday. In addition, the rapid rebound of wheat prices in October will also support the corn market [18].

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's statements and the September meeting minutes, with significant implications for commodities and RMB assets due to China's financial data and central bank liquidity operations [1][2] - Key upcoming events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of important economic data, which are expected to drive short-term trading strategies [1][2] - The trading environment is characterized by high volatility and risk, necessitating careful position management and confirmation of market signals before making trading decisions [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and officials' comments, particularly regarding interest rate paths, which will affect market risk appetite and the USD [1][2] - The performance of the US dollar is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's statements, while Canadian employment data will directly impact the Canadian dollar [2] - Oil demand expectations are significantly influenced by China's financial data, and the Baker Hughes rig count provides insights into supply-side dynamics [2][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown, occurring for the first time in seven years, is expected to negatively impact the economy, including U.S. import and export trade, and investment, shaking corporate confidence in the U.S. market [1][6] - Key financial regulatory agencies, including the SEC and CFTC, have placed most of their staff on unpaid leave, leading to a suspension of IPO applications and delays in the listing process for many companies, which could harm investor sentiment [3][5] - The shutdown is likely to exacerbate existing concerns in global asset markets, with investors shifting capital towards safe-haven assets like gold, potentially leading to price increases in these commodities [3][5] Group 2 - During the shutdown, customs operations will continue, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, causing delays in new certifications, approvals, and background checks, which will complicate import and export licensing for traders [5][6] - The absence of timely economic data releases, including employment and price data, will create uncertainty for foreign companies operating in the U.S. market, further amplifying global economic insecurity [6] - Historical data indicates that during the last shutdown in 2018, delays in food and beverage import/export procedures led to significant losses for traders, with cargo dwell times at major ports increasing by 15% to 20% [5][6]

Group 1 - Market focus is on Trump's new tariffs, key US economic data, and commodity volatility, with investors observing the Federal Reserve's actions and risk sentiment [1] - Electronic Arts saw a significant increase of approximately 15% due to acquisition rumors, sparking speculation and merger interest in the gaming sector [10] - Boeing's stock rose by around 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [10] - NIO's stock declined by about 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimistic policy support [10] Group 2 - The market is digesting the tariffs announced by Trump, with investors seeking clarity on whether the new taxes will be broadly applicable or subject to trade agreement exemptions [10] - Upcoming macro data, including key US inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [10] - Risk appetite appears cautious ahead of the US inflation data release, with the VIX remaining firm above recent lows as traders process policy and tariff uncertainties [10]