Market Overview - The bond market remains unclear, with long-term interest rates showing a V-shaped trend, indicating a state of stagnation where rates neither rise nor fall significantly[1] - From July 14-18, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.66% (-0.2bp), while the 30-year bond yield fell to 1.87% (-0.3bp)[9] Funding Conditions - During the major tax payment week, interbank overnight and 7-day funding rates reached temporary highs of 1.57% and 1.58%, raising concerns about the sustainability of a loose monetary environment[2] - The net payment of government bonds during this period was 428.8 billion yuan, contributing to a significant funding gap[20] Market Sentiment - Recent increases in market risk appetite are reflected in the rising financing balance in the stock market, with new funds continuously entering[3] - The expectation of policy support has strengthened, particularly with recent favorable signals from U.S. officials regarding tariffs on China[3] Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, avoiding aggressive duration increases while closely following market trends[4] - The bond market may develop in two directions: a potential steepening of the yield curve driven by short-term rate declines and a focus on coupon income as funding rates decrease[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - In June, the demand for financing in the real economy showed a significant rebound, with new RMB loans amounting to 23,600 billion yuan, an increase of 1,132 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Corporate bond financing reached 2,422 billion yuan, which is an increase of 322 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a recovery in financing demand[9] - The increase in household loans in June was 5,976 billion yuan, up by 267 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a rise in residents' willingness to leverage[10] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - In June, new RMB deposits totaled 32,100 billion yuan, an increase of 7,500 billion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 3,300 billion yuan[12] - M1 growth was 4.6% year-on-year, up by 2.3 percentage points from the previous value, while M2 growth was 8.3%, reflecting an overall improvement in economic activity[14] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates narrowed to -3.7%, indicating increased economic activity but requiring attention to supply-side regulatory impacts[14] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations have improved market risk appetite, reducing the likelihood of intensified trade friction[2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to remain industry self-regulated for now, limiting its immediate impact on production[2] - Risks include potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions, as well as the possibility that policy effects may fall short of expectations[3][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a standard allocation in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][2]. - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and the resilience of the US economy, leading to strong performance in risk assets like equities and commodities, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold faced pressure [1][2]. - Trump's announcement of new tariffs may temporarily disrupt market risk appetite, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The market is still in the process of repricing US Treasuries based on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which involves significant fiscal spending increases and may lead to a substantial expansion of the federal deficit [2]. - The article expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [2]. - Despite short-term pressure on gold from risk appetite fluctuations, global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support its allocation value [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - Global market risk appetite is recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving US-China relations[6] - Recent announcements of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk preferences, increasing geopolitical uncertainty[15] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit, leading to upward pressure on US Treasury yields[16] Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation - Tactical overweight on Hong Kong stocks due to improving market liquidity and risk appetite, with a recommended allocation of 4.81%[24] - Tactical underweight on US Treasuries, with a cautious stance due to fiscal pressures and economic dynamics, recommended allocation of 24.44%[24] - Tactical neutral position on gold, as geopolitical uncertainties still support its value despite recent pressure from improved risk appetite, recommended allocation of 6.20%[24] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.37%, with a cumulative excess return of 2.80% relative to the benchmark[30] - Year-to-date performance of major indices shows the Shanghai Composite Index up 4.73%, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 20.34%[12] - The portfolio's absolute return stands at 7.93% year-to-date, indicating strong performance against the benchmark[30]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][13][15] - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and resilient macroeconomic conditions in the US [1][11][12] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk appetite, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief shock [1][11][12] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase federal fiscal deficits, which may lead to upward pressure on US Treasury yields [1][12] - The report expresses optimism about Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [1][13][14] - The report highlights the potential for gold to serve as a hedge against risks, despite short-term pressure from improved market risk appetite [1][14][15] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes a focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in technology and emerging industries within Hong Kong [1][14] - The report indicates that the US economy's resilience may support a higher yield environment for US Treasuries, with a cautious outlook on their performance [1][13][14] - The report anticipates that the RMB will remain stable due to the strong growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [1][15]

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the expected 3.21% and the five-year average of 4.14% by 1.66 percentage points[8] - The marginal improvement in exports to the US was significant, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.3%, an increase of 18.39 percentage points from the previous value[10] - Exports to ASEAN countries also improved, with a growth rate of 16.74%, up 5.31 percentage points from the previous value[11] Import Performance - June imports increased by 1.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous value by 4.5 percentage points[19] - The improvement in imports was primarily driven by increased imports from Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, with positive contributions from these regions[22] Future Outlook - The extension of the US tariff exemption until August 1 may limit the recovery of China's export growth to the US in the second half of the year, creating downward pressure on exports[26] - If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September, it could lead to a structural market rally in July, despite potential export slowdowns[28] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of policies remain key risks that could impact market stability[29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term cautious, medium - term positive [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term and medium - term positive [3] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term range 77600 - 79100, medium - term range 60000 - 90000 [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term range 8300 - 8500, medium - term low - level operation in range 7500 - 8800 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term and medium - term positive [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term range 6.30 - 6.50 million, medium - term price decline with range 5.6 - 6.8 million [14] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas tariff uncertainty has a reduced marginal impact; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite is rising, but short - term profit - taking pressure should be noted [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bank - to - bank liquidity is slightly tightened, and there are rumors in the market. The domestic fundamentals are weak, strengthening the policy easing expectation [4] - **Copper**: US tariff hikes, supply increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes may affect price trends [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand decline, high inventory, but polysilicon price increase boosts it [8][9] - **Polysilicon**: Supply decline, demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation drive price increase [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot price increase benefits futures, but high supply and inventory levels are negative factors [14] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: IM2507 trading positions take profit, and allocation positions move to IM2509 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff uncertainty is reduced; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite rises with 596 billion yuan net buying in 3 weeks and 9% financing ratio [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [4] - **Core Logic**: Bank - to - bank liquidity tightens slightly, rumors in the market, and weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy easing expectation [4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach [5] - **Core Logic**: US tariff hikes, Codelco's 9% production increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8] - **Core Logic**: 27.67% supply decline, 33.11% demand decline, high inventory, and polysilicon price increase [8][9] - **Polysilicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [10] - **Core Logic**: 33.11% supply decline, 19.06% demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [14] - **Core Logic**: Spot price increase, 35% supply increase, and high inventory levels [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were among the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were among the top three losers. The core driver of the market was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, which led to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. With the policy focusing on the supply side, the supply and demand are moving towards balance, which is beneficial for price index repair and has a positive impact on the stock market's profitability. The strong market last week was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths. The bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue as long as there are no unexpected negative factors. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market continued to rise, with cyclical sectors leading. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were the top three losers. The market's core driver was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. The market's strength was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Currently, although the index is at a relatively high level, the market risk appetite remains positive. Without unexpected negative factors, the bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which are difficult to predict in advance and need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy, progress of the "anti-involution" policy implementation, and expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy**: For intraday trading, the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts can be used as a reference. The stop-loss and take-profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating ranges for the IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 contracts are expected to be between 3894 and 4095 points, 2686 and 2810 points, 5842 and 6234 points, and 6227 and 6646 points respectively [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy**: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Market Data Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.08%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 1.34%, Germany's DAX index rose 1.97%, and France's CAC40 index rose 1.73%. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen. Last week, all major market indices also showed an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance in Spot Market**: In the CSI 300 index, most industries rose last week, with the pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and industrial sectors leading the gains. In the CSI 500 index, most industries also rose, with the financial real estate, energy, and raw material sectors leading the gains [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Performance**: Last week, the IM2507 contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross-variety ratios also showed certain trends [12][14][20]. - **Index Valuation**: Based on weekly data, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.93 times, the CSI 300 index is 13.02 times, the SSE 50 index is 11.18 times, the CSI 500 index is 27.66 times, and the CSI 1000 index is 36.02 times [21][22]. - **Market Fundamentals**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [24].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad-based rally last week (July 7 to July 11), with small-cap stocks significantly outperforming, as micro-cap stocks saw a weekly increase of nearly 3%, leading major indices [2] - The market is gradually adapting to new quantitative trading regulations, with capital shifting towards stocks with clearer fundamentals [2] - Positive mid-year earnings expectations in sectors such as technology innovation, high-end manufacturing, and marine engineering boosted the performance of the ChiNext Index and the Wind Innovation Index [2] Industry Performance - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry indices was close to 2%, with 92% of the top 100 concept indices rising [9] - The real estate sector led with a 6.29% increase, followed by telecommunications services (2.27%), information technology (1.86%), and materials (1.83%) [9] - Defensive sectors like utilities (1.22%) and energy (1.07%) also recorded steady gains, indicating a rise in market risk appetite [9] Fund Issuance - A total of 26 funds were issued last week, including 13 equity funds, 4 mixed funds, 8 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with total issuance of 24.819 billion units [13] Fund Performance - The Wind All-Fund Index rose by 0.54% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 0.88% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 0.84% [3] - In the international equity market, European markets showed significant rebounds, while Asian markets were mixed, with Vietnam and South Korea rising notably, while Russia and Brazil declined [3] Bond Market Overview - The domestic 10-year and 30-year government bond futures contracts fell by 0.26% and 0.49%, respectively, indicating a downward trend [12] - The China convertible bond index rose by 0.76%, showing relative resilience in the convertible bond market [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest meeting minutes show differences among members regarding future prospects, mainly due to different expectations of tax impacts on inflation. The initial jobless claims in the US have decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims remain at the highest level since the end of last year. Some Fed officials believe that two interest rate cuts within the year are most likely, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar still uncertain. Recently, tin prices have adjusted, and smelters are holding firm on prices, with few transactions. Traders' quotes follow the market, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has increased, with overall market trading performing well. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Report Summary - The Fed's meeting minutes reveal differences among members on future prospects, mainly due to different inflation expectations influenced by taxes. US initial jobless claims have dropped for four consecutive weeks, hitting a two - month low, while continuing claims are at a high since late last year. Some Fed officials see two potential rate cuts this year, and tariff impacts on prices are milder than expected, enhancing market risk preference. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, and the resumption in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Tin prices have adjusted, smelters are holding prices, and trading is sluggish. Traders' quotes follow the market, and downstream buying interest has increased, with overall trading performing well [5]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The resumption rhythm of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is still uncertain; overseas inventories have declined; the US dollar index remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumer end is in the industry's off - season, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has significantly decreased [7]. Data Analysis - **Supply and demand balance**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January to April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January to April, it was 103,700 tons [9]. - **Price and basis**: This week, tin futures prices remained volatile. The basis of Shanghai tin was - 1,810 yuan/ton, changing from premium to discount; the LME tin premium was 22.21 dollars/ton, changing from discount to premium [12]. - **Smelter operating rate**: Recently, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been slightly rising. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces reached 53.97%. Yunnan smelters face tight tin ore supply, and although the operating rate rose slightly by 4.13% this week, it is still far below the level in Q4 2024. Jiangxi smelters rely on waste tin recycling, but poor terminal consumption has led to a decline in recycling volume and increased production costs. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in the two regions will remain low in July [15]. - **Import data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (equivalent to about 6,518 metal tons), a month - on - month increase of 36.39% and a year - on - year increase of 59.84%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 50,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04% and a year - on - year increase of 225.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. In May, refined tin exports were 1,770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.19%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 9,584 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.48%, with imports and exports basically balanced [18][24]. - **Production data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. It is expected that in June 2025, domestic refined tin production will be around 13,800 tons [21]. - **Automobile industry data**: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June, production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [27]. - **Solder industry data**: In May, the solder operating rate was 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The operating rates of large, medium, and small solder enterprises all decreased [30]. - **Inventory data**: The latest LME tin inventory is 2,015 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. As of the week of July 4, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 3.49% to 7,198 tons [34]. 后市研判 - Tin prices will maintain a volatile pattern [36]