本周二，"伊朗接受美国提出的停火方案，冲突有望结束"的消息推动全球风险偏好回升。特朗普于美东时间6月23日18时2分发文称，停火协议包含两个12小 时时段，伊朗将首先启动首个12小时停火，以色列随后进行第二个12小时停火，24小时后战争将正式结束。据央视消息，记者当地时间24日获悉，以色列与 伊朗停火已进入实施阶段。据伊朗法尔斯通讯社当地时间24日报道，在伊朗最新一轮导弹袭击造成以色列人员伤亡后，停火于德黑兰时间7时30分(以色列时 间7时)生效。 数据显示，截至6月24日收盘，A股主要指数强势反弹，沪深两市成交额超1.4万亿元。其中，上证指数上涨1.15%，收于3420.57点，时隔1个月重新站上3400 点。同期，深证指数上涨1.68%，创业板指数上涨2.3%。 恒泰期货首席经济学家魏刚向期货日报记者表示，从市场风险溢价来看，伊朗核设施遇袭后，美、以、伊三方均无意继续鏖战，寻求台阶结束冲突是自然选 择，这也促使市场风险集中释放。但需注意，以伊冲突的根本问题未解决，后续形势需持续关注。 从国内基本面来看，魏刚认为，5月经济数据和社融数据不乏亮点：促消费政策发力显效，社会消费品零售总额同比大幅增长；制造业投资 ...

报告类型 股指日评 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 6 月 24 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，开盘后一路震荡上行，近 9 成个股飘红，指 数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.20%、1.16%、 1.62%、1.92%，中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主 力合约分别收涨 1.45%、1.10%、1.97%、2.46%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term. Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict. The stock market's high - risk preference may continue, and the high - level oscillation pattern will persist. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through. Most commodities face supply - side pressures, and their prices are expected to be under pressure, while some may have short - term trading opportunities [12][16][18][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - International Atomic Energy Agency plans to return to Iranian nuclear facilities. Powell's congressional stance is hawkish, negating short - term rate - cut expectations, so the Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [10][12]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell said the US is not in a recession. If inflation or the labor market is weak, the Fed may cut rates early. Bostic believes there is no need to cut rates currently but expects a 25 - basis - point cut later this year. Gold prices have fallen by more than 1% due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment after the Iran - Israel cease - fire [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has regained 3400 points. Six departments have issued a document to promote consumer finance support. The stock market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, and the high - risk preference may continue, with the high - level oscillation pattern persisting [17][18]. - Investment advice: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in June was lower than expected. Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see attitude and did not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut. After the Iran - Israel cease - fire, the market risk preference has improved significantly, and the technology sector has led the index [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to oscillate weakly at the current level [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations and 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF shows its intention to protect liquidity. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through [23][24]. - Investment advice: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in April increased to 3.04 million tons. The palm oil market is affected by the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the decline in crude oil prices. The market is in a game between production increases in the origin and inventory accumulation in the sales area [26]. - Investment advice: Wait for the market sentiment to stabilize and then gradually arrange long positions in the far - month contracts [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - It is predicted that Brazil's sugar production will increase by 2.7% in the 2025/26 season, and the global market may have a supply surplus of 2.6 million tons. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the international sugar price is under pressure from the supply side [29][30]. - Investment advice: The rebound space and sustainability of Zhengzhou sugar are limited [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn - starch exports in May continued to rise. The export policy has been relaxed, but the export proportion is still relatively small. The core factor of the starch supply - demand situation may be the cassava substitution [31][32]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see mainly [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of Northeast corn is running strongly, but the futures price has started to fall. The warehouse receipt pressure may appear, and the old - crop contracts are expected to oscillate narrowly [33]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for new - crop contracts 11 and 01 when the production situation is clearer [33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference of imported steam coal exists. The coal price has eased in June, and the demand has a seasonal recovery. The short - term price is expected to be stable [33][34]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be stable [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Malaysia has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese cold - rolled steel coils. The iron ore price is in an oscillating market, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [36]. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate weakly, with the spot weaker than the futures [37]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of organic silicon DMC has been slightly adjusted upwards. The resumption of production of industrial silicon is greater than the reduction, and the demand is not improving significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [38]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has extended the informal mining temporary license to the end of the year. The macro - level factors for copper are mixed in the short term. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. The copper price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [43]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy for single - side trading and wait patiently for cross - period layout opportunities [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In May, the import and export volume of Philippine nickel ore increased. The nickel market has a tight supply of high - grade nickel ore, and the nickel - iron supply is expected to be in surplus in June. The pure - nickel price is oscillating weakly [44][45]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The market is trading the expectation of improved demand. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the supply of recycled lead has decreased. The demand is in the off - season and is expected to be weak until July [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the short term, and wait and see for cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount. Some zinc smelters are resuming production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthening, but the inventory accumulation height is limited. The zinc price decline may be a tug - of - war process [49]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies, pay attention to the 21500 - 21600 yuan support level, and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [49]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium projects have obtained approvals or financing. The LC2507 contract has a high position, and attention should be paid to the position - reduction rhythm before entering the delivery month [51]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions at the current level, consider partial profit - taking for previous short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [52]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude - oil inventory has decreased. Oil prices have continued to fall, and the risk premium has been significantly reversed. The supply of the crude - oil market has high potential for increase in the medium - to - long term [53][54]. - Investment advice: The short - term risk premium will be reversed [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Some urea plants have had failures and stopped production. The urea price is falling, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. The key variable lies in the export [57]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in export quotas and overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle - chip factories has been partially reduced. The polyester raw material price has fallen significantly, and the bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of the impact of raw - material price fluctuations [61]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market is oscillating at a low level. The fundamentals are under pressure, with supply stable and demand weak [62]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in the Shahe market is stable. The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will be relatively stable. The price has downward adjustment space [64]. - Investment advice: The short - term rebound may be difficult to sustain, and the price has downward adjustment space [64]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene has been reduced. The supply of styrene is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The pure - benzene price may have some repair space [67]. - Investment advice: The styrene price depends on the oil price and supply disturbances, and pay attention to the impact of the home - appliance subsidy policy [67]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has risen. The carbon - market trading has increased slightly, but the supply - demand structure is expected to be loose this year, and the price is under pressure [68]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [69].

Market Performance - The New York stock market saw significant gains on June 24, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.24 points to close at 43089.02, a 1.19% increase [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 67.01 points to 6092.18, marking a 1.11% rise, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 281.56 points to 19912.53, a 1.43% increase [1] - The S&P 500 index had nine sectors rising and two declining, with technology and financial sectors leading the gains at 1.61% and 1.50%, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index for June dropped to 93, down from 98.4 in May and below the market expectation of 99, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [3] - The FHFA reported a 0.4% month-over-month decrease in the housing price index for April, with a year-over-year increase of 3%, lower than the previous 3.7% [2] - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for June was reported at -7, slightly better than May's -9, aligning with market expectations [3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks performed strongly, particularly with major companies like Broadcom and NVIDIA driving market strength [2] - Airline stocks rose due to a drop in oil prices, with United Airlines and Delta Airlines both increasing by over 2% [2] - Carnival Corporation's stock surged by 8% following strong Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of its annual forecast [3] - The semiconductor sector showed exceptional performance, reflecting increased risk appetite in the market after the easing of geopolitical tensions [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

市场主流观点汇总 2025/6/24 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/20 | | 2025/6/16 | 至 2025/6/20 | | | | 原油 | 566.60 | 原油 | | | 8.82% | | | 甲醇 | 2529.00 | 甲醇 | | 5.86% | | | | 棕榈油 | 8536.00 | 棕榈油 | | 4.86% | | | | PTA | 4978.00 | PTA | | ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 180°转弯。伊朗有限报复，局势没有扩大，特朗普称两国将停火，市场预计中 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 东问题可控，不过 7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确定性仍然较多， | | | | 长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操 | | | | 作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 伊朗和以色列已经在美方主导下实现全面停火，原油价格大跌，地缘风险缓和，市 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 场风险偏好恢复，LME 铜库存续创年内新低，引发安全供应担忧，短期铜站稳 7 万 | | | | 8 关口，建议逢低轻仓试多。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 海外地缘风险缓和，市场风险偏好回升，海内外锌库存去化，短期宏微共振， | | 锌 | 反弹 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 23 日 铜铝周报 中东局势紧张，市场风险偏好下降 核心观点 铜：市场风险偏好下降，铜价承压，关注前期价格中枢支撑 铝：国内宏观回暖，铝价延续强势 上周铝价冲高回落，在有色板块中表现强势。我们认为国内宏观 氛围回暖很大程度上推升了铝价。铝价受国际宏观影响相对较小，而 国内宏观氛围较好，产业需求也较好，电解铝库存持续去化使其维持 强势运行。随着铝价上行，月差回落，产业推动意愿下降。关注 10 日均线支撑。此外，铸造铝合金上市交易，短期铝的资金关注度上 市。目前主力期价已突破 5 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/6/17 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/13 | | 2025/6/6 | 至 | 2025/6/13 | | | 原油 | 529.90 | 原油 | | | 13.69% | | | 甲醇 | 2389.00 | 甲醇 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.49%至 9695 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.45%至 78450 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，欧日纷纷表态，与美贸易谈判暂无取得 | | | | 较大进展。但相比贸易谈判，市场更加关注伊以冲突的进展，有报道称伊朗希望与美 | | | | 国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌。 | | | | 对于铜的影响则在于市场风险偏好的变化。国内方面，5 月经济数据整体呈现"冷热 | | | | 不均"的格局。工业增加值表现尚可，社零增速明显提高，消费品以旧换新政策持续 | | | 铜 | 显效；房地产同比跌幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增速略有下降。库存方面，LME 库存 | | | | 下降 7150 吨至 107325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1193 吨至 17.9 万吨；SMM 周一统计全国 | | | | 精炼铜社会库存较上周四增加 0.29 万吨至 ...