1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， 月 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关 | | | | 注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续 | | | | 持有。 | | | | 需求端韧性较强，液化气震荡调整。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向 | | LPG | | 下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70% | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 策略：走势强于沥青和燃料油，锚定成本端油价，大趋势仍向下，反弹偏 | | | 空。 | | | L | | 基差持续偏弱，成本支撑走弱。国 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/01 100 3573 115035 31495 -1332.99 -112.30 31.0 47.0 69.10 159425 6475 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 2025/12/04 220 4473 115035 32139 -1611.35 -281.23 38.0 48.0 50.44 162825 64325 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 6385 ...

（来源：果业研究） 来源：果业研究 国泰君安期货分析认为：在利空影响下，下周一多晶硅合约波动将明显放大，关注下方空间。短期建议 观望。 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格整体下行，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面重心回落，现货报价稳定。 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，整体周产 环减。具体而言，西南地区11月起逐步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在10000-10500元/ 吨，枯水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看，12月份上游西南减产幅度增加，虽新疆部分工厂有复产但 相较于西南减产体量较少，使得整体11-12月产量环比减少。库存来看，SMM统计本周社会库存累库0.8 万吨，厂库库存累库0.3万吨，整体行业库存累1.1万吨，后续关注期货仓单的注册情况。 工业硅需求端，下游刚需偏弱格局。多晶硅视角，短期硅料周度排产有所增加，后续关注减产情况。有 机硅端，本周有机硅周产降低，多家有机硅单体厂降负荷运行。据称有机硅企业联合于12月起减产挺 价，不过偏自律行为，实际落地性仍有待核实。有机硅短期报价提升，考虑到当下需求淡季、有机硅库 存偏高，挺价逻辑尚难走顺。铝合金端，铝合金锭厂 ...

资产比价方面，本周金银比数值为 73.03，较上周下降 4.72；铜油比数 值为 193.83，较上周上升 5.89；铜螺比数值为 29.47，较上周上升 1.35； 金铜比数值为 0.37，较上周下降 0.02；股债性价比数值为 4.1，较上周 下降 0.1；AH 股溢价数值为 119.79，较上周下降 1.11。 库存方面，最新一周原油库存为 44355 万吨，较上周上升 278 万吨；螺 纹钢库存为 467 万吨，较上周上升 4 万吨；阴极铜库存为 109690 吨， 较上周上升 14656 吨；电解铝库存为 62 万吨，较上周上升 2 万吨。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 多资产周报 反内卷政策演进与实践 反内卷政策演进与实践。（1）反内卷政策已完成多轮迭代。2023 年底中 央经济工作会议首次明确"部分行业产能过剩"，将该问题上升至国家 政策层面。2024 年作为行业自律关键期，核心通过协会牵头、企业承诺 平衡供需，但多数行业以失败告终。2025 年 7 月后，治理方式转向"行 政指导+法律划线+行业自律"三维协同，政策进入新阶段。（2）当前 反内卷仍以去产能为核心，价格管控为辅助手段。 ...

2025 年 12月 07 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(12.01-12.05),美豆期价跌势为主,因为美国财政部长斯科特 ·贝森特表示"中方采购美豆 1200万吨的时间从今年年底延长至明年２月底"。此外,中方采购美豆数量没有超预期利多,对美豆激励 作用不大。从周 K 线角度 22月5日当周,美豆主力 01月合约周跌幅2.81%,美豆粕主力 01月合约周 跌幅 3.52%。 3 上周(12.01-12.05),国内豆粕期价冲高回落,豆一期价偏弱。豆粕方面,美豆期价偏弱、市场缺 乏上涨动能,豆粕盘面价格顺势回落。豆一方面,现货稳中偏强,期货偏弱可能受到她储传言影响。从周 K 线角度,12月5日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 0.84%,豆一主力 a2601 合约周跌幅 0.8%。(上 述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周(12.01-12.05),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方继续采购美豆:事件本身利多、但低 于预期,对美豆激励有限。据USDA新闻讯,12月5日中国采购美豆 46.2万吨(2025/26年度交货)。2) ...

| 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 | | | | Z0020017 徐艺丹 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓単成本:卡粉 | 796.7 | 803.3 | -6.6 | -0.8% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 841.4 | 844.7 | -3.3 | -0.4% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 843.8 | 847.0 | -3.2 | -0.4% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 840.3 | 843.5 | -3.2 | -0.4% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | 2.2 | 3.8 | -1.6 | -41.6% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 46.9 | 45.2 | 1.7 | 3.8% | 元/吨 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 49.3 | 47.5 | 1.8 | 3.7% | | | 01合约基差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene and a faster accumulation rate of port inventory. Domestic cracking load is low, and pure benzene production has declined. Downstream production is in the off - season and has further decreased, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL production dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol production rising, and aniline and adipic acid production fluctuating within a range [2] - Styrene: Styrene is still in the low - production maintenance stage, and the restart plan has been postponed. The port basis has strengthened slightly again, and factory inventory has declined again, but port inventory has not continued to be destocked, and there is still arrival pressure. Downstream enterprise procurement has driven the basis to strengthen. The downstream production shows differentiation. EPS production has a slight rebound in the off - season, but there is still inventory pressure; ABS production has decreased due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS production has continued to rise since the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure has been alleviated [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report presents figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][12][16] 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [19][21][29] 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Rate - For pure benzene, it shows the inventory in East China ports and the production rate. For styrene, it includes the inventory in East China ports, East China commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the production rate [35][40][41] 3.4 Styrene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Covers the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][47][51] 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Includes the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [55][62][70] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3] - Basis and inter - period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low [3] - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [3]