2025 年 4 月 29 日 锡：小幅修复 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘 价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 262,840 | 1.26% | 261,510 | -0.23% | | | 伦 锡3M电子盘 | 32,150 | 0.55% | - | - | | 期 货 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 72,011 | -24,008 | 17,601 | -5,566 | | | 伦 锡3M电子盘 | 206 | 0 | 176 | 0 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,005 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk was 1,945 dollars/ton, down 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 40,549 lots, an increase of 2,570 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 2,178 lots, an increase of 48 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 38,819 lots, an increase of 86 lots; the LME lead open interest was 147,337 lots, a decrease of 124 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount Data**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 17.91 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.28 dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Profit and Loss and Inventory Data**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 662.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117.98 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was - 633.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104.32 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 37,971 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 271,025 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 154,400 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons. The profit and loss of recycled refined lead was - 502 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan/ton [1] News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and the US have not conducted consultations or negotiations on tariff issues [1] Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers, and the strength classification including weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 MEG： 多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-25 | 6230 | 4400 | 4160 | 6046 | 3477 | | 2025-04-24 | 6166 | 4370 | 4179 | 6028 | 3446 | | 2025-04-23 | 6224 | 4408 | 4250 | 6092 | 3507 | | 2025-04-22 | 6050 | 4306 | 4180 | 5982 | 3456 | | 2025-04-21 | 6110 | 4350 | 4205 | 6010 | 3419 | | 日度变化 | 1.0 ...

2025 年 4 月 29 日 沥青：去库延续，原油小跌 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,451 | 1.47% | 3,453 | 0.06% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,437 | 1.33% | 3,440 | 0.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2506 | 手 | 252,561 | 51,080 | 136,987 | (948) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 57,701 | 20,342 | 104,774 | 6,001 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 89230 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

黄金屡创新高，白银却徘徊在33美元，分析师预言年内冲击50美元！是画饼还是真机遇？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250428: 需求阶段性放缓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | 单位 4月24日 4月25日 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 | | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1725.00 1766.00 | 1725.00 1766.00 | 0.00 0.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | UR09 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 | 1757.00 | 1757.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 山东 | | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1830.00 | -30.00 | -1.64% | | 期现价格 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1690.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1820.00 | -20.00 | -1.10% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Slight decline [1] Core Viewpoints - The market has recently seen several offers or deals for several mines at $75 - 80 (varying by grade and negotiating party), mainly due to a significant increase in alumina production cuts. Some miners and small and medium-sized mines are pre - shipping to avoid price - decline risks and maintain stable downstream customers. Newly投产 alumina enterprises are using their scale advantages to increase negotiation pressure, pushing down ore prices. Currently, market transactions are in the stage of sporadic bulk cargo deals, and mainstream miners are still observing the market or fulfilling current contracts, with the trend still being established. There are ongoing contract or legal disputes at Guinean mines, and their progress and resolution should be monitored [1][2] - Affected by the cost pressure from the continuous slump in alumina prices, the price of bauxite in Shanxi region continues to decline. The current price of 58/5 ore (Al/Si = 5) has dropped another 20 yuan/ton, reaching a factory - inclusive tax price of 700 yuan/ton [2] - Aluminum trend strength: 0; Alumina trend strength: 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2] Directory Summaries Comprehensive News - Market has seen $75 - 80 offers or deals for mines due to alumina production cuts and new enterprises' negotiation pressure, and Guinean mines have contract/legal disputes [1][2] - Bauxite prices in Shanxi continue to decline due to alumina price slump [2] Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-4-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1340元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1365元/吨，基差为-25元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存169.10万吨，较前一周减少1.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。SA2509：1340-1390区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - Short fibers are expected to rebound in the short - term following raw materials; for bottle chips, they will also rebound in the short - term following raw materials, and it is advisable to short processing margins on rallies [1] Group 2: Industry Data Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2505 was 5988 yesterday, up 20 from the day before; 2506 was 6046, up 18; 2507 was 6032, down 42 [1] - Spread: PF05 - 06 was - 58, up 2; PF06 - 07 was 14, up 60; PF basis was 279, up 17 [1] - Position and volume: Position was 278445, down 8127; volume was 226009, down 21239 [1] - Spot price and sales rate: The East China spot price was 6325, up 35; the sales rate was 70%, up 8% [1] Bottle Chip - Futures prices: Bottle chip 2505 was 5634 yesterday, up 26 from the day before; 2506 was 5692, up 48; 2509 was 5650, up 32 [1] - Spread: PR05 - 06 was - 58, down 22; PR05 - 09 was 42, up 16; PR main contract basis was 116, up 44 [1] - Position and volume: Position was 23890, down 2269; volume was 34001, down 6036 [1] - Spot price: The East China spot price was 5750, up 70; the South China spot price was 5800, up 50 [1] Group 3: Spot Market News Short Fiber - Last Friday's late - session and Saturday's filament trading volume increased, but short - fiber sales were average and overall dull. Today, short - fiber factory quotes remained stable with preferential negotiation for transactions. Trader volume declined, and some stopped quoting. Market low prices rose, but high - price transactions were few. On Sunday, direct - spinning polyester short - fiber factory sales were still average, with an average sales rate of 70% by 3:00 pm [1] Bottle Chip - On Friday morning, polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were partially slightly raised. An individual large bottle - chip manufacturer set the May - June basis at pr07+60 and the July basis at pr07+50. Intra - day, the overall polyester bottle - chip market transactions were average. Near noon, raw material futures rose significantly, and some large polyester bottle - chip manufacturers slightly raised quotes and bases. April - May orders were transacted around 5610 - 5700 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly higher at around 5800 yuan/ton ex - factory; June orders had moderate transactions at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton ex - factory. Over the weekend, the overall polyester bottle - chip market transactions were light [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short fibers is 1; the trend intensity of bottle chips is 1, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime session on the report day [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The demand will still limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton yesterday with no daily increase, and 13,005 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.12% increase. CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.21% decrease, and 18,955 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.11% increase. ICE cotton 07 closed at 68.7 cents/pound yesterday with a -0.65% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 254,032 lots yesterday, a decrease of 2,112 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 773,192 lots, a decrease of 7,911 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 4,278 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,233 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,555 yesterday, an increase of 216, and the effective forecast was 1,938, a decrease of 239. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 10 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,068 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 14,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.12%. The price in Hebei was 14,241 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.12%. The 3128B index was 14,224 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan or 0.25% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading remained sluggish, market quotations decreased slightly, and the quoted prices in different regions varied greatly. The spot sales basis was stable. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was mainly CF09 + 750 - 800, and some were as high as 900 - 1000, for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The basis of some transactions of 2024/25 Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1200, for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The freight for cotton transported out of Xinjiang by truck was basically stable [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market was poor, downstream orders were insufficient, and procurement decreased. Spinning mills' operating rates declined, and the number of holidays increased recently. The price of cotton yarn gradually decreased. The weakness of pure cotton grey fabric continued recently, the shipment slowed down significantly, and the shipment volume declined. Weaving mills purchased based on sales, and their procurement enthusiasm was not high. New orders for weaving mills were insufficient, and the production of conventional varieties increased [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton first rose and then fell. Driven by technical buying in the Asian trading session, ICE cotton once reached 69.75 cents/pound. However, due to poor US cotton export data and favorable weather in the main producing areas, and the lack of fundamental drivers, ICE cotton finally closed at 68.7 cents/pound [3]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].