| | | | | 尿素早评20250618: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | 变化值 変化值 单位 6月17日 6月16日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1726.00 1810.00 1690.00 | 1683.00 1760.00 1600.00 | 43.00 50.00 90.00 | 2.55% 2.84% 5.63% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1739.00 | 1697.00 | 42.00 | 2.47% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1774.00 | 1723.00 | 51.00 | 2.96% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1750.00 | 40.00 | 2.29% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 17 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月17日 | 6月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13850 | 13900 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -20 | -10 | -10 | -100.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -120 | -160 | 40 | 25.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending June 15, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and last year's 70%. The planting rate was 93%, and the emergence rate was 84%, with a slightly lower good-to-excellent rate. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 72%, higher than the market expectation of 71%, the previous week's 71%, and the same as last year's 72%. The emergence rate of corn was 94% [1]. - In the next two weeks, most soybean - growing areas in the US will have rainfall and temperatures higher than the same - period average, which is continuously beneficial for soybean planting and growth [1]. - Recently, geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, which have a significant impact on some oil futures. The time is gradually entering the weather - trading window, and investors need to closely monitor the driving changes brought about by weather changes from June to August [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans - The current planting rate is 93%, compared to the previous week's 90%, the 5 - year average of 94%, and last year's 94% [1]. - The emergence rate is 84%, compared to the previous week's 75%, the 5 - year average of 83%, and last year's 80% [1]. - The good - to - excellent rate is 66%, compared to the previous week's 68%, the 5 - year average of 67%, and last year's 70% [1]. Corn - The planting has stopped. The previous week's rate was 97%, the 5 - year average was 92%, and last year's was 97% [1]. - The emergence rate is 94%, compared to the previous week's 92%, the 5 - year average of 87%, and last year's 92% [1]. - The good - to - excellent rate is 72%, compared to the previous week's 71%, the 5 - year average of 72%, and last year's 72% [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [2] 2. Data Information - The closing price data is from June 13, 2025, and the weekly change is the change in the closing price from June 6 to June 13, 2025 [3] - Data sources include Wind and Guotou Futures [3] 3. Market Data Commodities - Crude oil closed at 529.90 with a 13.69% weekly increase; methanol at 2389.00 with a 5.52% increase; PTA at 4782.00 with a 2.79% increase; etc [3] A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 closed at 3864.18 with a - 0.25% weekly change; the CSI 500 at 5740.24 with a - 0.38% change; the SSE 50 at 2676.43 with a - 0.46% change [3] Overseas Stocks - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23892.56 with a 0.42% change; the Nikkei 225 at 37834.25 with a 0.25% change; the S&P 500 at 5976.97 with a - 0.39% change [3] Bonds - The 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond closed at 1.43 with a - 1.13% change; the 5 - year at 1.52 with a - 1.15% change; the 10 - year at 1.65 with a - 1.61% change [3] Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.16 with a 1.37% change; the US dollar central parity rate was 7.18 with a - 0.10% change; the US dollar index was 98.15 with a - 1.07% change [3] 4. Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector - **Futures on Stock Indexes** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logic: Sino - US talks, low US inflation and employment data, increased A - share trading volume, and positive changes in SSE 50 and CSI 500 after sample adjustment [4] - Bearish logic: Tensions in the Middle East, reduced ETF shares tracking the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, weak economic data, and tariff uncertainties [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish and 5 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logic: Negative CPI and PPI, trade risk mitigation, and increased government bond maturity in June [4] - Bearish logic: Limited effectiveness of monetary tools, limited upside space, and factors suppressing short - term bonds [4] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logic: Escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, lower - than - expected OPEC+ production increase, potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, and high implied volatility [5] - Bearish logic: OPEC's production increase signal, global oil surplus, US shale oil recovery, and planned US - Iran talks [5] Agricultural Products Sector - **Eggs** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logic: Increased chicken culling, more eggs in cold storage, upcoming demand peak, and low breeding enthusiasm [5] - Bearish logic: High - temperature sales, weak terminal demand, pessimistic market sentiment, and high new egg production [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logic: Supply disruptions, falling inventories, potential smelter production cuts, and tight scrap copper supply [6] - Bearish logic: US tariff plans, geopolitical tensions, high short - term production, and weak domestic demand [6] Chemicals Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish and 3 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, unstable Iranian gas supply, tight port supplies, and increased MTO device operation [6] - Bearish logic: High domestic coal - based methanol production, port inventory pressure, and potential import increase [6] Precious Metals - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish and 2 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logic: Geopolitical risks, expected Fed rate cuts, low inflation data, and increased ETF holdings [7] - Bearish logic: Reduced speculative positions, potential risk - appetite recovery, positive trade signals, and technical pressure [7] Black Metals Sector - **Rebar** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logic: Inventory reduction, rising oil prices, reduced production, and strong raw material demand [7] - Bearish logic: Declining demand, seasonal factors, high production profit, and falling export data [7]

| 《八》国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月17日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强,中美谈判别好对于价格有所提振，但具体细节仍有待观察。纯棉纱成 交依旧偏清淡，主要淡季行情下下游需求仍旧不足，市场信心弱，看涨情绪不高。从目前中美谈判情况来看，虽然表态比较积 极，但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨，环比减少 69.3 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 17 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-17） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，主流矿山发运量小幅回落态势， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.19 万吨至 241.61 万吨，连续五周下行，基本 | | | | | 面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。当前螺矿比和焦矿比已经 | | | | | 处于历史较低水平，铁矿在黑色板块中估值相对偏高，需求进入季节性淡 | | | | | 季，若铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单建议继 | | | | | 续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿 | | | 煤焦 | 低位 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 低位震荡 | 利多因素增加，焦煤偏强震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 核心逻辑：前 5 月份焦煤期货持续下行，而近期市场情绪的转变主要源于焦 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】 最新一轮的以色列与伊朗冲突对10年期美 国国债造成的抛售压力可能会产生持久影响。自上周五双方冲 突以来，受油价飙升和预算赤字担忧的推动，10年期美债收益 率已上涨逾10个基点。评：油价走高，美国通胀存在持续走高 的风险。全球经济下行压力持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。 地缘政治激化，也利空白银。但是白银是否会跟随黄金上涨， 仍然需要注意。市场关注美联储降息预期。白银短期震荡等待 会议指引。关注黄金走势是否对白银有影响。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料稳中有涨。杯胶上涨0.4泰铢/公斤 至47.45泰铢/公斤，胶水持平，仍然为56.75泰铢/公斤；云南 原料也出现了明显的上涨。制干胶胶水上涨0.2-0.4元/公斤至 13.1-13.3元/公斤；青岛库存增加1400吨至60.69万吨，增加 0.23%。其中保税区库存下降1.87%至8.39万吨。一般贸易库存 增加0.58%至52.29万吨。评：产区新胶释放缓慢，成本存一定 支撑，需求端暂未有明显改善迹象。阶段性原油对相关品种影 响比重变大，偏震荡偏多对待。 投资咨询中心 2025年06月17日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shi ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 对二甲苯：中期价格承压 PTA：聚酯大规模检修，中期价格承压 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 减仓 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-16 | 6758 | 4766 | 4374 | 6510 | 3874 | | 2025-06-13 | 6780 | 4782 | 4334 | 6530 | 3829 | | 2025-06-12 | 6536 | 4620 | 4234 | 6362 | 3645 | | 2025-06-11 | 6528 | 4620 | 4285 | 6414 | 3563 | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 日度变化 | -0. ...

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 所 商 品 研 究 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：中期偏多 | 9 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 10 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...