为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行11月24日发布预告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展1万亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于11月有9000亿元MLF到 期，当月央行MLF净投放规模将达到1000亿元，为央行连续第九个月对MLF加量续作。 在保持流动性充裕和银行净息差持续承压的背景下，MLF期限偏长、投放和到账时间确定，能为金融 机构提供稳定的预期。与此同时，随着MLF操作招投标机制的完善，MLF操作已从当天发布结果公告 改为预先发布招标公告，有利于参与机构提前做好短中长期流动性安排。 "总体上看，接下来央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 性。"王青表示，央行加量续作MLF有助于稳增长、稳预期。 11月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断式逆回购操作，累计净投放5000亿元。综合来看，MLF与买断 式逆回购两项政策工具在11月合计释放中期流动性6000亿元，与上月净投放规模持平，继续展现出央行 适度宽松的货币政策取向。 "11月MLF加量续作着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向证券时报记者 指出，10月财政部 ...

"在岁末年初之际，央行通过多种货币政策工具维持市场流动性充裕，进而引导金融机构加大信贷投 放，及时又必要。"招联首席研究员董希淼表示，目前，央行中短期流动性的投放方式已基本固定，即 每月5日前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月期买断式逆回购、25日开展MLF操作，为 保持市场流动性充裕提供有力支持。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 11月24日，据中国人民银行消息，11月25日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展10000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。 Wind数据显示，11月将有9000亿元MLF到期。这意味着11月MLF净投放为1000亿元，连续第九个月加 量续做，符合市场预期。 净投放处于较高水平 "考虑到11月央行还净投放5000亿元买断式逆回购，这意味着11月中期流动性净投放总额达6000亿元， 与上月相同，连续四个月处于年内较高水平。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。 王青分析，11月中期流动性净投放仍处于较高水平的原因有三方面：一是10月安排5000亿元地方政府债 务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方债，11月政府债 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its S&P 500 price target to 7800 for 2026, citing strong earnings growth and a belief that a new bull market is underway, particularly in lagging sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The evolving narrative suggests that the market is transitioning from growth-negative to growth-positive policies, with optimism about the economy's resilience despite concerns about the Federal Reserve's pace of action [2][3] - There is a belief that a rolling recession has already occurred, with the economy rebalancing towards the private sector, which is expected to improve as government policies change [4][5] - The Fed is anticipated to cut rates, which is seen as essential for allowing a rotation into interest rate-sensitive sectors of the market [6][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A correction of 10-15% was predicted due to tightening liquidity, but evidence suggests that this correction is well advanced [9] - The performance of momentum stocks, including cryptocurrencies, indicates market concerns about liquidity, which will influence the Fed's timing for rate cuts [10][12] - The market is expected to dictate the Fed's actions, with potential financial stress prompting a more dovish policy path [12][31] Group 3: Investment and Spending - There is an expectation of increased capital expenditures (CapEx) driven by government incentives, which will require support from the Fed's balance sheet [17][18] - The investment in technology, particularly AI, is viewed as crucial for driving productivity and supporting stock performance in the future [21] - The market is experiencing a bifurcation in performance among major players, which is seen as a healthy sign of competition and investment discipline [28][29] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed's independence is questioned, with the view that it is influenced by market conditions and government funding requirements [32][33] - The Fed is expected to respond to market demands for liquidity and rate cuts, reflecting the financialization of the economy [31][32]

"考虑到本月央行还开展了5000亿元买断式逆回购净投放，11月中期流动性净投放总额达到6000亿元，连续四个月处于6000亿元的年内较高水平。"王青表 示，主要原因有以下三点： 一是10月安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，这意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方债，11月政府债券净融资规模会 有明显上升；二是10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动当月委托贷款走高后，接下来还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放；三是11月银行同 业存单到期量也有明显增加。以上都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 "着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这能助力 政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。"王青表示，当前央行加量续作MLF，持续较大规模向银行体系注入中期流动性，释放了数量型政 策工具持续加力的信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于稳增长、稳预期。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，11月、12月是全年工作收官的关键时段。在岁末年初之际，央 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Arthur Hayes 发推表示，美联储量化紧缩预计将于 12 月 1 日停止，美国银行 11 月贷款有所 增加，流动性出现小幅改善。他认为比特币将在 9 万美元下方震荡，或再探低至 8 万美元出头，但预计 8 万美元将企稳。他称可能开始小幅加仓，但真正的大规模操作将留到明年。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is taking measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system by conducting a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On November 25, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, responding to the maturity of 900 billion yuan MLF in November, resulting in a net MLF injection of 1000 billion yuan for the month [1]. - The MLF operations are aimed at addressing potential liquidity tightening, especially with the increase in government bond issuance and the maturity of bank interbank certificates of deposit [1][2]. - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, which better meets the differentiated funding needs of various institutions [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has also conducted two rounds of reverse repurchase operations in November, resulting in a total net injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued moderate easing monetary policy stance [2]. - The combined effect of MLF and reverse repurchase operations in November has released a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining the same net injection scale as the previous month [2]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repurchase and MLF tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, especially in light of recent macroeconomic fluctuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on November 25, aimed at maintaining liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan MLF [1][2] Group 1: MLF Operations - The MLF operation will be conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations by the PBOC [1] - The MLF operation is a response to potential liquidity tightening, influenced by factors such as increased government bond financing and the maturity of bank interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has released a total of 600 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos in November, maintaining the same net injection scale as the previous month, reflecting a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - Since March, the MLF has transitioned to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding approach, allowing better alignment with the diverse funding needs of participating institutions [2] Group 3: Economic Stability - The continuation of MLF operations is expected to support economic stability and growth amid recent fluctuations in macroeconomic performance [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2] - The MLF net injection of 100 billion yuan in November is in response to potential liquidity tightening due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan in MLF and increased government bond financing [1][2] - The PBOC's recent operations, including MLF and reverse repos, have collectively released 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining a stable monetary policy stance [2][3] Group 2 - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, enhancing the ability of financial institutions to meet diverse funding needs [2] - The MLF operation's bidding mechanism has been improved to allow institutions to better prepare for liquidity arrangements, with a focus on providing stable expectations for financial institutions [2][3] - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, supporting economic stability and expectations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are bearish, with the October economic data showing a weakening trend, including declines in investment growth and real estate prices. Inflation slightly rebounded in October [3]. - The macro - policy is neutral - bullish. The policy news is relatively quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for further monetary policy tightening in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors are neutral - bearish. Geopolitical tensions may ease marginally, and multiple Fed officials have signaled potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity is neutral, with the average daily trading volume of A - shares decreasing compared to the previous week [3]. - The investment view is weak and volatile. The A - share market lacks a clear driving force, and it is expected that market differences will be digested during the index's volatile adjustment [3]. - The trading strategy is short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logics** - Economic and corporate earnings: The 1 - 10 cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7%, infrastructure investment up 1.51%, and manufacturing investment up 2.7%. Inflation rebounded slightly in October, with CPI up 0.2% year - on - year [3]. - Macro policy: The policy news is quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for additional monetary policy in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors: Geopolitical tensions may ease, and multiple Fed officials signaled rate cuts, with the market betting the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [3]. - Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment and Trading Views** - Investment view: Weak and volatile, lacking a clear driving force, with the average daily trading volume dropping from about 2.5 trillion yuan in October to about 1.7 trillion yuan currently [3]. - Trading strategy: Short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks from domestic policies and overseas geopolitics [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance** - The CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7 last week [5]. - Most Shenwan first - level industry indices declined, with power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel leading the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 16.77%, 18.96%, 13.60%, and 14.05% respectively [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 4.16%, 8.40%, and 11.64% respectively, while that of SSE 50 futures decreased by 2.10% [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at 1497.8, in the 92.2% historical percentile; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at 250.3, in the 42% historical percentile [16]. - The CSI 300/CSI 1000 and SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratios were at 0.6, in the 43.6% and 39.5% historical percentiles respectively [16] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity** - The central bank conducted 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net injection of 13540 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury cash deposits, the net injection was 12340 billion yuan [23]. - Next week, 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 9000 billion yuan in MLF, and 3000 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading** - As of November 20, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24839.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan from the previous week [29]. - As of November 20, the margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11% of the total market trading volume, in the 93% percentile of the past decade [29]. - The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - As of November 21, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.39, in the 56.9% percentile of the past decade [29] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In October, GDP was not reported, industrial added - value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [32]. - The CPI in October was 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year [32]. - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [40]. - **Corporate Earnings** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and other indices varied in different quarters [45]. - The return on equity (TTM) of different indices also showed different trends [45] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance since the beginning of the year, including policies to promote service consumption, issue special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement, and adjust real estate purchase restrictions [50][51] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data** - The US manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous value [60]. - The US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [60]. - The US PCE and core PCE in September had a year - on - year increase of 0%, and the CPI and core CPI in September had a year - on - year increase of 3% [63]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada, and has made various remarks and actions regarding international relations and economic policies [67]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among brokerage strategy analysts indicates a rebound in the market, as multiple factors that led to last week's stock index adjustments have improved over the weekend [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 30% to 71%, alleviating global risk aversion [1] - The expectation of liquidity improvement and the ongoing iteration of global AI applications are likely to ease concerns regarding an "AI bubble" [2] - The internal logic supporting the rise of Chinese assets remains strong, driven by enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals [2][3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that are expected to outperform in the coming year, particularly those benefiting from high growth forecasts, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand [3] - The approval of 16 technology ETFs, including those focused on AI, is expected to guide capital towards high-quality technology companies in the A-share market, providing a positive regulatory signal [2][3] - The technology sector's recent adjustments are attributed to the influence of U.S. AI leaders and year-end institutional fund strategies, but the overall tech market is expected to continue its upward trajectory post-correction [2][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The current market adjustments are viewed as short-term disturbances that do not alter the underlying bull market logic, with expectations of continued capital inflow and improved earnings across sectors [3][4] - The potential for a significant reversal in the fundamentals of the AI industry in the U.S. is considered low, which should provide substantial valuation growth opportunities for comparable companies in China [4] - The overall sentiment indicates that the market is not lacking in liquidity, and the concerns regarding long-tail risks in the Chinese economy are gradually easing [3][4]