黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：宏观情绪提振，钢价小幅上涨 | 2025/6/27 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 10-01 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | 同差 | | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 242 . | 3 | 0 . | 1 | 2 . ...

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

2025年06月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | -3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market faced multiple pressures of oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory this week, with a pessimistic market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand drivers for soda ash were insufficient, and the price remained weak after breaking through the previous low. In the long term, the soda ash futures and spot markets may continue to be under pressure, although the summer maintenance period may have a certain phased impact on futures prices [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Analysis - The cost of soda ash production is mainly composed of fuel. Rising prices of raw salt, coal, and natural gas will increase production costs, which may lead to price increases and strengthen the market. Recently, the continuous decline in soda ash costs has weakened the cost - side support and increased the downward pressure on prices [8] Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Macroeconomic and Policy Impact**: RMB depreciation (USD/CNY exceeding 7.2) supported export - oriented enterprises, with the export quotation of East China soda ash to Southeast Asia rising 5 - 8% month - on - month, but domestic demand remained weak. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut (over 60% probability of a rate cut in September) led to a short - term rebound in soda ash futures due to macro - sentiment, but the industrial logic of high inventory restricted the increase [9] - **Futures Expectation**: The futures market anticipates a peak season for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year (e.g., the installation volume in Q4 may increase by 30% quarter - on - quarter). Some funds have pre - arranged in the far - month contracts (2509), resulting in a smaller decline in futures prices than in spot prices and a narrowing of the basis [11] Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Each ton of soda ash production consumes about 1.5 tons of raw salt, accounting for 30% - 40% of production costs. In the joint - alkali process, each ton of soda ash production consumes about 0.3 tons of coal, with coal costs accounting for about 20% - 25% [12] - **Mid - stream Processing**: Soda ash (sodium carbonate) and caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) are used in industries such as glass, chemicals, and textiles, and can be substituted in some scenarios. The production of 1 ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali process produces 0.8 tons of synthetic ammonia as a by - product, and the price of synthetic ammonia affects the profits of joint - alkali enterprises [12] - **Downstream Terminal Industries and Consumption - related Products - Glass**: In June, the daily melting volume of float glass was 165,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%, and the number of cold - repaired production lines increased, suppressing the demand for soda ash. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in June was 182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%, supporting the incremental demand for soda ash, but the current inventory days of photovoltaic glass were 25 days (the warning line is 20 days) [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, supported by low inventory and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea, but limited by the off-season pressure on the demand side [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Content Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will mostly shut down for maintenance from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some steel mills [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - According to data on June 20, the weekly arrival of bauxite at domestic ports was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly departure of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [2]. - In early June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly operating rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. Year - on - year, it decreased by 307,000 tons compared to last year and 69,000 tons compared to 2023, remaining at a near - three - year low [2]. - There is a slight expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum in June. The overall low domestic ingot casting volume is expected to maintain the inventory decline trend. However, due to the expectation of some aluminum plants to increase ingot casting, there has been a slight increase in supply and shipments in the northwest, and due to price differences, inter - regional transfers have increased the arrival volume this week, relieving the tight supply of marketable goods to some extent [2]. - The high - level and strong operation of aluminum prices will inevitably suppress domestic demand during the off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to weaken, resulting in a slowdown in the overall domestic inventory decline in the second half of the month [2]. - Overseas macro instability persists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in ore prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3].

瑞达期货（002961）表示，随着天气转热，时令鲜果上市，对红枣等滋补类产品形成替代，红枣需求季 节性淡季，库存消化缓慢，压力不断凸显，抑制枣价上方空间。据Mysteel农产品调研数据统计本周36 家样本点物理库存在10693吨，较上周减少15吨，环比减少0.14%，同比增加69.51%，本周样本点库存 小幅减少。市场交易氛围一般，年度消费低谷期关注产区新季长势。 中辉期货分析称，市场焦点在新季生长情况，当前新季枣树生产较为良好，天气端尚无明显负面影响， 市场预期今年同比减少但库存处历史高位。需求方面，季度大方向需求走弱预期不改，近期市场无明显 增量，预计郑枣短期区间运作，持续关注天气扰动。 目前来看，红枣行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于红枣后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 混沌天成期货指出，河北崔尔庄市场停车区到货4车，到货等外成品均有，客商按需采购；广东如意坊 市场到货4车，市场阴雨天气持续，客商按需采购，早市成交一般；自明日结算时起，红枣期货合约的 交易保证金标准调整为9%，涨跌停板幅度调整为8%；受宏观情绪带动，近期盘面由底部小幅反弹，鉴 于库存高位影响，价格处于相对低位，目前处于 ...