Group 1 - The global bond term premium is rising, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rate risks and economic policy uncertainties, with Japan's 10-year bond term premium increasing by over 40 basis points since early last year [1] - In Germany, the term premium has also risen over the past two years due to the need to absorb the impact of the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction and increased government stimulus plans [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that since late April, the market has begun to bet more aggressively on the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies, although any deterioration in U.S. economic growth and employment data could reignite growth concerns [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it has not reached alarm levels, with expectations of a moderate slowdown in the labor market maintaining job growth around 100,000 [2] - UBS economists highlight early indicators of a weak U.S. job market, with rising unemployment claims and predictions of only 100,000 new jobs in June [2] - The National Australia Bank suggests that increasing government spending beyond fiscal capacity may undermine market confidence in the U.S. dollar, contributing to its decline [2] Group 3 - Analysts from the Netherlands International Group state that the Bank of England's potential slowdown in quantitative tightening seems to support the British pound, reducing the risk of further depreciation [2] - The South Korean inflation rate is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's 2% target, allowing for a cautious monetary policy approach focused on financial stability [2] - South Korea's overall consumer inflation rate rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above market expectations, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [2] Group 4 - Phillip Nova's analysis suggests that a weaker U.S. dollar may extend upward momentum in oil prices, despite the market already digesting production increase news [3] - Nomura's economists note that South Korea's strong exports and increased fiscal spending plans may alleviate concerns about economic growth, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting [3] - The median wage growth among major employers in the UK increased from 3.2% to 3.4%, with a significant impact on the service sector, while manufacturing was less affected [3]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 1,883.5 | -21.4 | -1.12% | 44,193.0 | -35.80% | 36,335.0 | -10.23% | | EC2510 | 1,367.9 | -15.9 | -1.15% | 14,562.0 | -32.79% | 31,302.0 | -0.65% | | EC2512 | 1,528.0 | -10.0 | -0.65% | 2,984.0 | -14.03% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...

| | | 消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。近期地缘风险溢价挤出，油价重回基 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 空头盘整 | 本面定价，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上 | | | | 当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-505】 | | | | 油价下降，沙特下调 CP 合同价，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 端原油回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | | 库存端中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：成本端利空，可轻 | | | | 仓试空。PG【4130-4250】 | | | | 社会库存转为累库，需求淡季，期现齐跌。华北基差为-49（环比-28）， | | | | 装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期上中游库存显著下滑， | | L | 空头盘整 | 需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东 | | | | 新时代 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market compared to the A-share market, leading to a narrowing of the AH premium, which currently stands below 130 points [3][5] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) has shown significant gains, with bank stocks rebounding strongly, particularly Minsheng Bank which rose over 5%, and coal stocks also performing well, with Yancoal Australia increasing by over 4% [4][5] - The article discusses the impact of US dollar liquidity on the AH premium, indicating that while the premium appears low since 2022, it is influenced by high overseas interest rates and a strong dollar index [5] Group 2 - The article notes that the Hong Kong Dividend sector currently has a high AH premium, making it an attractive investment option, with an average premium of 40.96% for 18 constituent stocks listed in both markets [5][10] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) has consistently paid dividends for 12 months, with a total cash dividend exceeding 1 trillion HKD in 2024, averaging 33.866 billion HKD per distribution, leading the Hong Kong dividend index [10] - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend levels and frequency in selecting dividend assets, highlighting the ETF's strong performance in this regard [10]

伊拉克高硫燃料油出口量维持高位 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.37%，报2979元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3590 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌，目前市场重回基 本面主导的逻辑。 高硫燃料油方面，近日价差结构明显转弱，现货贴水、月差、裂解价差连续走低，反映现货端供应相对充裕，市 场利好驱动不足。目前来看，欧佩克增产将带动中高硫原油与燃料油供应提升。此外，与以色列停火后伊朗出口 有回升迹象，供应压力或开始显现。值得一提的是，伊拉克高硫燃料油出口维持高位，6月份进一步增加。参考船 期数据，伊拉克6月高硫燃料油发货量预计为167万吨，环比5月增加32万吨，同比去年提升70万吨。伊拉克部分货 源可能来自于伊朗，也印证了高硫燃料油供应的增长态势。需求方面，目前夏季发电端需求较为旺盛，航运端消 费也相对持稳。炼厂端需求则需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引增量，近期国内部分炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调也有 利于高硫燃料油进口需求回升。因此，高硫燃料油市场结构调整充分后将迎来新的支撑。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that as the US fiscal deficit worsens, the role of US Treasuries as a store of value is being replaced by gold [1][2] Group 1: US Treasuries and Gold - The 20-year US Treasury yield is projected to reach a target range of 4.9%-5.2% by 2025, with a recommendation to avoid [2] - Gold's target price is set at $3,500 per ounce, with a potential price of $4,400 per ounce if its market value matches that of US Treasuries, suggesting a buy [1][2] - The valuation of US Treasuries is expected to shift from premium to discount, as they lose their previous function as a store of value [1] Group 2: Stock Market Outlook - The S&P 500 target price for the second half of 2025 is estimated to be between 4,300 (bearish) and 5,600 (bullish), with a downgrade of the US stock market rating from "neutral" to "underperform" [4] - The long-term bull market in US stocks is driven by monetary factors, including a persistent capital account surplus due to the US's long-term current account deficit [3] Group 3: Economic Risks - Short-term economic conditions face risks, with the potential for a decline in real purchasing power due to tariffs, which could decrease by 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points for every 10 percentage point increase in tariffs [4] - A decline in consumer credit over two consecutive quarters suggests a historical correlation with actual recessions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the upcoming risk-averse phase, the focus should be on quality factors and defensive sectors such as Dow Jones, dividend factors, utilities, and consumer staples [5] - For bottom-fishing opportunities, the report recommends prioritizing Philadelphia Semiconductor, followed by Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, and technology sectors [5]

根据不完全统计，农业投资失败率超过90%——这是一个残酷的数据。明明倾注大量心血，却大多黯然离场，为什么农业难做？怎么才能成功？我把这段 时间的一些思考给大家做一些分享。 NO.1、农业项目的四大"致命伤" 近些年，我曾亲眼见证无数农业项目折戟沉沙，总结四个核心痛点： 1.生产分散性之困 中国农业有一个特性就是分散性，生产不集中。很多农产品的品种、生产者、销售者、管理者都不在同一个维度上。这些原因直接导致农产品成本攀高， 价格没有竞争优势。 2.标准化缺失之痛 标准缺失已经成为中国农业的"顽症"。从生产到销售等环节都存在标准化缺失。即使，当今的智慧农业、数字农业的大范围应用，但产品无标准化的依然 成为中国农业最棘手的难题。 农业项目是不是一个最难成功的项目！ 比如，某个地域的的猕猴桃，大小不一、甜度波动大，高端渠道望而却步，只能低价卖给批发商。 3.产销脱节的顽疾 产销脱节也是中国农业发展的绊脚石，生产与销售的不平衡，导致"产品卖不出去"、"消费者吃不到好产品"的窘况。 比如，某个草莓种植大户才发现市场更喜欢小的精致草莓，但种植规模已固定，无法调整，产销严重脱节。 4.品牌力不足 无品牌、无标识、无溢价。这是 ...