[ WTO警告称，美国关税政策可能对国际贸易体系造成"80年来前所未见的破坏"，预计明年全球货物贸 易量增速将从今年的2.4%降至0.5%。 ] 今年，我国金融市场顶住了高强度外部冲击，呈现"股汇双升"。其中，人民币对美元汇率（如非特指， 本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）摆脱了2022年以来跌多涨少的下行行情。尤其是11月24~28日（均指 当地时间，下同）最后一周，境内外人民币交易价连续升破7.07~7.10比1。前11个月，境内中间价累计 升值1.55%，即期汇率（指境内银行间市场下午四点半成交价）升值3.10%，离岸人民币汇率（CNH） 升值3.76%。 随着人民币止跌反弹，市场对于明年的汇率走势普遍趋于乐观，重估之旅、破7之旅甚至新周期之说又 甚嚣尘上。其实，在"十五五"时期我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的总 体判断下，与其去赌新周期还不如进一步适应双向波动新常态。 根据国际清算银行（BIS）编制的实际有效汇率（REER）指数，人民币REER自2022年3月起见顶回 落，到今年10月累计下跌17.3%。有人据此认为，人民币低估，需要升值。然而，同期日元REER也下 跌了16.1 ...

*免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 盛达资源：公司为国内白银龙头，在夯实存量白银矿山项目经营的基础上，白银与黄金资源扩张布局并 举，有望进一步增厚业绩空间。 兴业银锡：公司收购宇邦矿业，白银储量再上台阶。 11月28日白银价格迎来大幅飙升，内外盘白银价格纷纷刷新历史新高，其中COMEX白银期货最高触及 57.245美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银最高达56.78美元/盎司，国内沪银期货主力合约最高升至13239元/千克 13。截至目前，其年内累计涨幅已高达90%，成为年内表现极为强势的品种之一。 证券时报援引分析师观点称，白银价格强势的核心驱动来自宏观货币政策预期与基本面供需结构的共 振。目前市场对美联储12月降息25个基点的概率预期已升至85%以上，远高于一周前的40%左右。这种 宽松预期推动美元指数走弱，既降低了白银的持有成本，又刺激资金大量流入贵金属板块。供需方面， 今年是全球白银连续第5年出现供应缺口，缺口规模估计达9500万盎司。光伏装机量维持高位、新能源 汽车渗透率提升，长期拉动白银工业需求，且2026年白银供给预计持续短缺，为银价提供了刚性支撑。 公司方面，据证券时报表示， *风险提示：股市有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains solid, and the gold - silver ratio is being restored. The price elasticity of silver is better than that of gold, and it is recommended to pay attention to the rotation opportunities of the A - share non - ferrous related sectors [1]. - The short - term supplementary increase elasticity of silver in precious metals is expected to be stronger than that of gold, which has been verified. The short - term certainty of silver is stronger, with a large restoration space for the gold - silver ratio, and the demand growth in industrial fields such as photovoltaics provides support for the silver price [2]. - The A - share is expected to stabilize in the short term, and the precious metal sector is expected to become the main allocation direction during the rotation stage of the technology main line. In terms of profit, the "anti - involution" related sectors are expected to contribute to the marginal increase in A - share profits. As precious metal prices reach new highs, the A - share precious metal sector is expected to be the focus of capital rotation [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Silver Market Performance - On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures price hit a new high in nearly a year (12,800 yuan/ton), and the relative increase of Shanghai silver compared to Shanghai gold in the past month was 8.12%, indicating stronger elasticity of silver in the precious metal sector [2]. 3.2 Long - term Logic of Precious Metals - The long - term bullish logic of precious metals is still strong. In the short term, the market expects an 83.2% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Although the implementation of the interest - rate cut expectation may cause short - term fluctuations in precious metal prices, the upward trend remains unchanged. The core logic is that the start of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle confirms the shift to a loose monetary policy, and potential concerns about the Fed's policy independence will support precious metal prices from both liquidity and risk - aversion aspects [2]. 3.3 Comparison between Gold and Silver - Gold is still in an upward channel but is in a high - level shock stage after accelerated upward movement. The key to the subsequent market is whether the "decline in real interest rates" and "weakening of the US dollar" can resonate. In contrast, silver has stronger short - term certainty. The current high "gold - silver ratio" has a large restoration space, and the demand growth in industrial fields such as photovoltaics supports the silver price. The low inventory level makes its short - term price elasticity better than that of gold [2]. 3.4 A - share Market and Investment Suggestions - The A - share is expected to stabilize in the short term and warm up the "spring rally" market. In 2026, the two main lines of technology and "anti - involution" are expected to be the main focuses of industry allocation. The precious metal sector is expected to be the main allocation direction during the rotation of the technology main line. From the profit perspective, the "anti - involution" related sectors are expected to contribute to the marginal increase in A - share profits. As precious metal prices reach new highs, the A - share precious metal sector is expected to be the focus of capital rotation. It is recommended to pay attention to industries such as non - ferrous metals and basic chemicals, especially related targets in the precious metal and small metal sectors [2]. 3.5 A - share Earnings Structure - The report analyzes the profit structure of A - shares. In 2025Q2 and 2025Q3, different sectors and industries have different profit growth rates and contribution degrees. For example, the TMT sector has a relatively high profit growth rate and contribution degree in both quarters, while some sectors such as building and real estate have a decline in profits [4].

南华期货锌产业周报 ——宏观暖风频吹，矿端紧缺兑现 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌价处于筑底阶段，当前锌市正处于"宏观预期托底，产业供需错配"的关键窗口期。宏观层面， 美联储12月降息预期显著升温，美元指数回落，市场风险偏好提升（Risk-on），为有色板块提供了较强的金 融属性支撑。供给端矛盾已激化至临界点：加工费（TC）的持续崩塌是当前最核心的驱动力，SMM国产TC 已跌至2050元/金属吨的极低水平，冶炼厂陷入深度亏损（约-2000元/吨），导致检修减产规模扩大，12月 产量预期下滑，供应收缩逻辑正在从"预期"走向"现实"。需求端则呈现明显的季节性回落特征，镀锌开 工率下滑至56.54%，北方进入淡季，终端除了出口数据尚可外，地产与基建表现平淡，对锌价上方空间形成 压制。库存端出现典型的"内去外累"分化，LME库存虽增至5万吨以上，但国内社库受供给减量影响持续去 化，七地库存降至14.81万吨。综上所述，尽管消费端缺乏亮点，但矿端紧缺引发的供应缩量已成为主导逻 辑， ...

伦敦金涨 4.3%至 4219 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率降至 4%，通胀 预期 2.24%，实际利率下行至 1.76%，美元指数跌 0.72%至 99.4，标 普 500 指数涨 3.73%，人民币升值，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 金价再度转涨，表现偏强，一方面是对美联储降息预期的快速提 升，一方面是白银出现现货紧张再度炒作逼空推动了整个贵金属 板块的上涨。美联储多位官员发表讲话，基调从此前的鹰派转为 鸽派，12 月降息概率已经回升至 80%以上，美联储理事米兰再度 呼吁应该大幅降息，美联储理事沃勒则担忧就业市场而倾向于 12 月继续降息，哈塞特作为美联储下届主席的有力人选也表态鸽派 支持进一步降息，市场对于美联储后续的利率路径预期持续宽松。 美元指数高位回落，大宗商品整体反弹。 美国 9 月零售销售环比增加 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%，消费 动能有所放缓，黑五网上销售额大幅增加，但价格上涨幅度大于 销售量的增加，通胀压力有所增加，9 月耐用品订单环比增加 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 3%，9 月 PPI 同比 2.7%、环比 0.3%符合 预期，核心 PPI 同比 2.6%、环比 ...

如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《重视科技资金动能增强的信号》 2025-11-29 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（11 月第 4 周）》2025-11-29 3、《12 月金股报告》2025-11-27 报告摘要 一、如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 本周市场热点集中在 TMT 等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、 电子元件、游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到 8.70%、6.05%、4.23%，均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近 10 月底高点。 在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在 5%以上。光模块 CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G 等多个通信主题 指数涨幅超过 10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨超 30% ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 库存跟踪： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：现实基本面仍有压力，宏观与消息影响边际。精炼镍累库矛盾和湿法投产预期压制估值， 火法利润遭重导致 11 月精炼镍排产环比减少 6%至 31580 吨，部分企业将精炼镍转向非标镍生产，但由于 市场普遍预期隐性补库放缓，耐腐合金需求承压，叠加镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，累库 矛盾尚未完全化解。同时，远端低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线 逻辑或仍有拖累。从宏观与消息面看，美联储偏鸽派言论提振，降息预期回升，宏观压力阶段性缓和，同 时，印尼的资源治理动作频繁，低位追空仍需关注风险。印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预 算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年或可能削减配额，仍需紧密关注印尼审批进展的下一步动作。因此，整体 而言，现实面和预期都存在压力，但是短线在还未实质出清的阶段，宏观情绪回升，叠加消息面仍存 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][10] - The demand for aluminum is gradually entering a low season, with the aluminum water conversion rate facing downward pressure [10] - Long-term supply growth in the aluminum industry is limited, while demand still has growth points, indicating sustained high prosperity in the industry [10] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of November 28, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2865.0 per ton, up $57.0 from the previous week, a 2.0% increase week-on-week, and up $263.0 year-on-year, a 10.1% increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 21610.0 yuan per ton, up 270.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.3% increase week-on-week, and up 1035.0 yuan year-on-year, a 5.0% increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 21430.0 yuan per ton, up 70.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.3% increase week-on-week, and up 910.0 yuan year-on-year, a 4.4% increase [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the aluminum production is 363.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.6 million tons month-on-month, and a decrease of 6.6 million tons year-on-year [51] - The alumina production in November 2025 is 743.9 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 15.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of November 27, the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [7] - The aluminum rod inventory is 131,000 tons, down 6500 tons week-on-week, reflecting a steady decline in inventory [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.25 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.54 yuan in 2025E and 2.77 yuan in 2026E [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.00 yuan in 2025E and 1.27 yuan in 2026E [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.13 yuan in 2025E and 2.56 yuan in 2026E [5]

"哎，你昨天去金店看价格了吗？听说黄金又涨了一点。"朋友这句话说得挺有意思，其实最近黄金价格一直在微调，但整体趋势还是挺稳的。无论是回收还 是销售，市场上都有自己的一套逻辑，而背后的走势也和国际局势、美元表现紧密相关。11月29日的黄金行情，再次给大家提供了参考。 国内黄金价格回收与销售：稳中带韧性今天国内黄金大盘回收价稳定在944.76元一克，销售价报946.76元。可以看到，差价不大，说明市场流动性比较健 康。受美联储降息预期增强的影响，沪金主力合约交易在946元附近，这让黄金的避险需求支撑了价格的韧性。白银、铂金、钯金也都跟涨，回收价分别为 12.081元、367元和325.4元。工业金属需求回暖，直接带动贵金属的联动上涨，这意味着不仅是黄金，其他金属品种也有投资参考价值。 金店金饰价格：头部品牌略高，批发价性价比突出周大福、周生生、老凤祥等品牌金饰价格在1321-1328元每克，比上月上涨了六十元左右，而水贝黄金批 发价仅1102元每克，价差超过200元。轻克重产品（10克以内）销量提升至45%，反映出消费者更倾向于小件、易携带、性价比高的产品。简单来说，如果 你买来佩戴或送人，头部品牌有品牌溢价和设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside significant central bank gold purchases and a temporary trading disruption due to a technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3][4][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has risen sharply, with the probability of a rate cut in December exceeding 80% following lower-than-expected inflation data for November [3]. - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with the proportion of gold in their total reserves rising from 15% in Q2 2025 to nearly 20% currently, marking a historical high [4]. - A technical failure at the CME led to a trading halt for over 10 hours, exacerbating liquidity issues and contributing to the volatility in gold prices during the Thanksgiving holiday [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The gold price has shown a clear upward trend, closing above the 5-day moving average at $4074, with bullish patterns indicating a strong potential for further increases [6]. - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ suggest a continued bullish momentum, with MACD remaining above the zero line and showing increasing bullish energy [6]. - The recommended trading strategy includes buying on dips around the $4188-$4190 range, with a stop loss at $4178 and a target of $4200-$4202, while also considering short positions if prices reach $4245-$4247 without a pullback [9].