智通财经APP获悉，英国财政大臣里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)周三公布的财政计划通过将大部分增税和支出 限制措施延后执行来实现整体账目的平衡。这意味着英国家庭和企业将从2028-29财年开始明显感受到 增税压力，并在次年承受高达260亿英镑(约合344亿美元)的财政紧缩。但与此同时，英国最迟必须在 2029年8月前举行下届大选。因此，在执政党工党民意支持率暴跌的背景下，标普全球评级和穆迪评级 均对里夫斯能否落实该计划提出质疑。 两家评级机构目前对英国主权债务均维持高质量评级且展望稳定。不过，穆迪指出"政策执行风险依然 高企"，警告政府的部门支出计划"在选举年将难以实施"。英国政府目前预计各部门的实际日常支出在 2028-29和2029-30财年将仅增长0.5%，低于此前约1%的增速。 标普则对将主要紧缩措施推迟至五年财政计划的后期表示类似担忧，警告财政大臣可能被迫调整方针。 标普表示："英国下届大选将于2029年举行，恰逢重大税收措施在2028年生效后不久。因此现政府有可 能随着投票日临近而选择撤回部分已公布的紧缩政策。" 本次预算案坚守了不提高个人所得税、国民保险和增值税主税率的竞选承诺，但通过多种" ...

美联储主席鲍威尔的鹰派表态是此次美联储决策的关键。他强调，为了压制通胀，美联储愿意承受一定 的经济增长放缓压力。这一表态使得市场对美联储的货币政策形成了更为强烈的预期，从而加剧了全球 新兴市场货币的压力。 三、全球新兴市场货币承压明显 由于美联储维持高利率不变以及鲍威尔的鹰派表态，全球新兴市场货币承受了显著压力。在这种情况 下，新兴市场的资本流出压力加大，货币贬值趋势明显。这不仅加剧了这些国家的通胀压力，还可能引 发金融市场的不稳定。 美联储维持高利率不变，鲍威尔鹰派表态引发全球新兴市场货币承压明显 近日，美联储宣布维持高利率政策不变，这一决策引发了全球市场的广泛关注。与此同时，美联储主席 鲍威尔的鹰派表态更是给全球新兴市场货币带来了明显的压力。本文将就此事件进行深入剖析，探讨其 背后原因、影响及未来展望。 一、美联储决策背景 近期，美联储在权衡通胀与经济增长的双重压力下，决定维持高利率不变。这一决策是基于美国经济现 状和通胀压力的考虑。尽管经济增长放缓的迹象初现，但通胀压力仍然高企，美联储需要通过维持高利 率来压制通胀，确保经济稳健发展。 二、鲍威尔鹰派表态分析 2. 通胀压力：货币贬值将加剧新兴市场的通胀 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, economic growth continued the slowdown trend from the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments had been fully disbursed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved. - Overseas, the release of the US October CPI and some employment data was hindered due to data collection issues during the shutdown. The number of initial jobless claims last week hit a 7 - month low. The Fed's economic beige book showed that recent US economic activity was stable, but there were downward risks in the labor market. Since November, the US interest - rate cut rhythm has been inconsistent, and the dovish tone within the Fed has become more prominent, increasing the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December. - The economic indicators in October declined across the board, and the fundamentals were slightly under pressure. It is expected that the economy will continue the weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market. The central bank maintains a moderately loose policy tone, but the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. During the policy vacuum period, the bond market sentiment is generally weak and sensitive to news, and it may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, waiting for directional guidance from uncertain factors such as the central bank's Treasury bond trading scale in November and the new fund redemption rules [99][100]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' active contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) fell by 0.93%, 0.45%, 0.10%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes were 520,100, 442,800, 320,200, and 164,100 respectively [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts all declined. The trading volume of the TS main contract decreased slightly, while those of the TF, T, and TL main contracts increased. The open interest of all main contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) increased [15][21][29]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission planned to formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. On November 25, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. On November 27, it was reported that from January to October, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year - on - year, but in October, it decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. On November 28, many regions in China were researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties. In addition, there were news about the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and the US jobless claims data [32][33]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: This week, the spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed, while the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts both narrowed. The spread between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year contract widened, while that of the 30 - year contract narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 5 - year and 2 - year contracts widened [42][48][52]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [65]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The overnight Shibor rate decreased, while the 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.46%. The yields of short - term Treasury bonds were strong, while those of medium - and long - term bonds were weak. The 1 - 3 - year yields decreased by 0.5 - 1.5 bp, the 5 - 7 - year yields increased by about 3 bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields increased by about 1.9 and 2.7 bp respectively, reaching 1.83% and 2.18%. The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year US and Chinese Treasury bond yields both narrowed slightly [69][76]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 167.6 billion yuan due; it also conducted 200 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 90 billion yuan due, achieving a net investment of 13.58 billion yuan [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 141.494 billion yuan, the total repayment was 119.1457 billion yuan, and the net financing was 22.3482 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0789, with a cumulative increase of 86 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased, and the VIX index dropped significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][91][96]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategies - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In October, social retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a downward trend, and the growth rates of social financing and credit decreased year - on - year. The support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken, and the actual loan demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and the activation of deposits slowed down. The year - on - year export growth rate turned negative, falling by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. - **Overseas Situation**: The release of the US October CPI and some employment data was affected. The number of initial jobless claims last week was at a 7 - month low. The Fed's economic beige book showed stable economic activity but downward risks in the labor market. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in December increased. - **Market Outlook**: The economic indicators in October declined, and the fundamentals were under pressure. It is expected that the economy will continue the weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank maintains a moderately loose policy, but the space for further monetary easing is limited. In the short term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range, waiting for directional guidance from uncertain factors [99][100].

智通财经APP获悉，法国11月通胀率意外保持稳定，而西班牙通胀放缓幅度则低于分析师预期，这显示 出欧元区主要经济体物价走势的分化局面。 数据显示，法国通胀率稳定在0.8%，低于市场对其将微升至1%的预期;同期西班牙通胀率放缓至3.1%， 而经济学家的预期为回落至3%。 这些数据是欧元区四大经济体同日密集发布的通胀报告的一部分，这些指标将为欧洲央行在12月进行今 年最后一次利率决策提供重要参考。意大利和德国将分别于北京时间18:00和21:00发布CPI数据。 市场预计意大利通胀率将维持在1.3%，德国则将微升至2.4%。对于12月2日发布数据的欧元区20国而 言，整体通胀率可能与10月的2.1%持平，接近欧洲央行2%的政策目标。 资深欧元区经济学家David Powell表示："11月欧元区通胀率可能维持稳定，随后在12月恢复持续下行态 势。尽管欧洲央行管委会目前仍拒绝宽松，但通胀的进一步回落可能加大明年再度放宽货币政策的压 力。" 事实上，欧洲央行政策制定者对当前物价前景持乐观态度，暂无意调整借贷成本。首席经济学家Philip Lane周三表示，管委会成员普遍认为，薪资增长放缓将有助于通胀持续稳定在目标水平 ...

Core Insights - The crypto market is currently stabilizing after a challenging month, with Bitcoin priced at $91,200 and Ethereum at $3,010, while total market capitalization has fallen below $3 trillion [1][2] Upcoming Events - A significant U.S. Senate vote on December 8 regarding a crypto regulatory framework could influence market conditions, with a 70% chance that the bill will favor the industry [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 10 is anticipated to be a 25-basis-point cut, with an 87% probability, which could lead to increased capital flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies [5] Market Developments - On-chain activities include a dormant wallet selling 1,300 ETH worth approximately $3.94 million, and Bhutan's government confirming its active staking of Ethereum holdings [6] - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen modest inflows of $21 million, marking their first positive day in weeks [6] Macro Environment - The combination of clearer U.S. regulations and a more accommodative monetary policy is seen as a favorable macro setup for the crypto market [7] - Analysts expect the upcoming Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum to significantly enhance data capacity, supporting price targets between $3,100 and $3,200 [7]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据仍支持降息，俄乌问题再次生变，日元反复不确定较多，黄金有支撑。建 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持 | | ★ | | 续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 高弹性白银 2025 年大涨幅度超 70%，短期特朗普 AI 创世纪计划批准，均对白银有 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 利。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币 | | ★ | | | | | | 投放提供流动性。12000 附近支撑较强。长线多单持有 | | 铜 | | 宏观暖风频吹，美联储 12 月降息概率升至 85%，国内 12 月初政治局会议临近，市 | | | 长线持有 | 场对政策刺激预期走高，国内淡季去库，铜价格中枢稳步上移，建议回调逢低试多， | | ★ | | 中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌宽 | | 锌 | 承压 | 幅震荡，受 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is volatile consolidation, with the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreasing and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still existing [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The overall short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly volatile consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, yesterday's Treasury bond futures were volatile. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1.9% but a decline in performance. Combined with the weakening of economic data such as consumption and investment in October, the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for additional monetary policy at the end of the year, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Focus on the statement of monetary policy in the December key meeting [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fiscal and monetary policies in China for the year 2026, focusing on the implications for the economy and financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026** - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected growth rate of approximately 1.9% in broad fiscal expenditure, despite a slight decline due to high base effects. Actual physical broad fiscal expenditure is anticipated to increase by over 1 trillion [1][4][3] 2. **Deficit and GDP Growth** - The narrow deficit rate is projected to remain around 4%, with nominal GDP growth needing to reach 4.9% to maintain this rate. The actual nominal GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was about 4.1%, indicating potential discrepancies [3][4] 3. **Monetary Policy Goals** - The monetary policy for 2026 will focus on stabilizing growth, promoting inflation, and preventing risks. Expected actions include 1-2 interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [8][9][11] 4. **Banking Sector Challenges** - The net interest margin for banks has been under pressure, recorded at approximately 1.42% as of Q3 2025. Future stability in this margin is crucial for effective monetary policy transmission [15][17] 5. **Government Debt Management** - The management of local government debt is critical, with a focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden to ensure repayment capabilities. The macro tax burden is expected to slightly decline to 12.7% in 2026 [6][7] 6. **Investment Strategies** - Local government industrial guidance funds are shifting investment strategies from tax reductions to equity support, promoting a transition from land finance to equity finance [5][6] 7. **Yield Curve and Credit Premium** - A steep yield curve and positive credit premium are necessary to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic growth confidence. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2026 [2][19] 8. **Inflation and Economic Risks** - Key macroeconomic risks include inflation, liquidity flow, and regulatory policy changes. The CPI is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, with PPI showing a range of -0.5% to 1.0% [20] Other Important Insights 1. **Unified Market Construction** - The establishment of a unified market is essential for addressing issues related to chaotic local investment and overcapacity, which have been exacerbated by declining macro tax burdens [6] 2. **Liquidity Management** - The central bank has implemented various liquidity management tools, including open market operations, to ensure stable liquidity supply [10][11] 3. **Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments** - Changes in the interest rate corridor mechanism have been noted, with a focus on enhancing the central bank's policy rate influence [12][13] 4. **Loan and Bond Yield Relationship** - The average after-tax return on loans is currently aligned with the 10-year government bond yield, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without disrupting this balance [14] 5. **Future of Monetary Policy** - The monetary policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with potential adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to facilitate further interest rate cuts [11][18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the fiscal and monetary policy outlook for 2026, highlighting the anticipated challenges and strategies within the Chinese economy.

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks have released their outlooks for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a general consensus that the index will continue to rise due to the ongoing AI investment wave, a shift to loose monetary policy, and expanding profit growth [1][2][8] - HSBC sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share for index constituents, driven by macroeconomic stability and the AI investment boom [2][3] - Societe Generale predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7300 points in 2026, with a potential range reflecting significant market volatility due to monetary policy uncertainty [4] Group 2 - Barclays raises its target for the S&P 500 to 7400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks and improving monetary and fiscal conditions, while warning of pressure on non-tech sectors due to rising inflation and unemployment [5][6] - UBS forecasts a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, driven by strong corporate earnings growth of 14.4% in 2026, despite concerns over valuation risks related to AI stocks [8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, supported by Fed rate cuts and efficiency gains from AI technology [11] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank presents the most optimistic outlook, setting a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500, driven by expected earnings growth of 14% and a broader market rally beyond the largest tech companies [12] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team emphasizes that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end, viewing it as an opportunity to position for a bullish 2026 [11] - JPMorgan highlights the K-shaped economic recovery, indicating that while large enterprises benefit from AI, the disparity in consumer confidence and spending may lead to market volatility [10]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) consensus from the October meeting indicates a reluctance to lower interest rates, citing high uncertainty and the adequacy of current monetary policy [1] - The ECB decided to maintain interest rates, believing the current policy is in a "good state" due to economic resilience and inflation being close to target levels [1] - Market sentiment suggests that there is only about a one-third chance of further monetary easing by the ECB until 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB's October meeting minutes reveal a preference for maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with current policy rates viewed as robust enough to handle shocks [1] - Some officials believe the rate-cutting cycle may have ended, as favorable economic prospects are expected to persist unless risks materialize [1] Economic Indicators - Subsequent economic data released since the meeting has reinforced market expectations, showing that the Eurozone economy continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace [1] - Inflation rates remain anchored near the ECB's target of 2%, contributing to the confidence in the current monetary policy stance [1] Future Inflation Concerns - There is a potential for next year's inflation rate to fall below the target level due to the base effect from declining energy prices, which could reignite discussions on rate cuts [2] - Despite the ECB's traditional disregard for inflation fluctuations caused by energy price volatility, some board members warn that sustained low inflation readings could lower inflation expectations and lead to prolonged weak price growth [2]