1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PX cost support is weak, and attention should be paid to the possible increase in supply pressure due to high processing fees of PTA [1]. - The PTA downstream polyester operating rate is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. However, the marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. - The cost decline and high short - fiber inventory will continue the weak pattern of the industrial chain, while the low inventory of filament may provide phased support. The risk of weakening demand in the traditional textile off - season needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On June 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,796.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 222.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on June 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.07 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 620.33 million meters [2]. - PX: The cost side is affected by the narrow - range oscillation trend of international crude oil prices, and the support it can provide is relatively limited. The expected commissioning of new devices in Asia may bring supply pressure, and the limited repair space of downstream PTA processing fees may suppress the raw material procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the PX price will maintain an oscillatory pattern [2]. - PTA: The downstream polyester operating rate of PTA is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. The strengthening of the basis reflects the tightness of spot goods. The marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. Polyester - On June 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,542.0 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,730.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 188.0 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the PX futures price oscillated downward from 7,076 yuan/ton on June 20 to 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, and the PTA futures main contract also fell from 4,978 yuan/ton to 4,798 yuan/ton during the same period, and the raw material side declined under pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the MA15 trading volume of Light Textile City decreased continuously from 644.4 million meters on June 20 to 609.4 million meters on June 27 and then rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than the level at the beginning of the month, reflecting the lack of sustainability of terminal demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of polyester filament FDY/POY/DTY were 18.9/17.2/25.3 days respectively, all lower than the five - year average values of 22.19/20.40/28.42 days, while the inventory of polyester short - fiber was 7.77 days, significantly higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days, indicating that the filament maintained a de - stocking trend, but the short - fiber had significant inventory accumulation pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.65% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 295,108 lots, up 29.61%; the main contract position was 115,158 lots, up 3.16% [4]. - PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 866.67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 850 US dollars/ton, up 0.95% [4]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,798 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.42% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 1,088,784 lots, up 36.27%; the main contract position was 1,085,040 lots, down 0.81% [4]. - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 653 US dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,542 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.25% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 132,190 lots, up 0.05%; the main contract position was 102,404 lots, down 12.71% [4]. - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,730 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [4]. - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY had different changes [4]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, PTA, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY also had different changes [5]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on June 30 was 663 million meters, down 16.29% from June 27; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129 million meters [5]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY had different changes [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On June 30, Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the conflict, and a Ukrainian F - 16 fighter jet crashed [6]. - On June 30, the US consumer spending in May unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%, inflation rose moderately, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, reaching a new high since February 2025; the monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 0.2%, and the market expected it to remain flat at 0.1%, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates three times in 2025 [6]. - On June 30, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expected two interest - rate cuts starting from September, and the impact of tariffs might lead to a suspension of interest - rate cuts [6]. - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 2720.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - On June 27, some Fed officials made statements about interest - rate cuts [6]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and filament production and sales situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][15][16][20][23][24][25][26][27] 3.5 Appendix - The analysis of the future price trends of PX and PTA shows that PX may maintain or rise if the upstream crude oil is stable or rising, and PTA may also have an upward trend due to large basis and increasing demand. However, the possible fluctuations in crude oil prices and the decline in polyester operating rate are risk factors [35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all rated as "oscillating"; soda ash is rated as "oscillating weakly" [8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16] 2. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the black market weakened. Affected by the news of coal mine restart, coking coal and coke had large declines in the late trading. The overall demand for five major steel products is in a weakening trend in the off - season, and the market is cautious, with the market resuming an oscillating trend. Geopolitical conflicts have less impact, and the trading focus has shifted to the domestic market. Although the blast furnace charge has rebounded from the oversold situation, the demand and inventory of steel are under pressure, so the upward space is limited [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while steel mills' hot metal daily output slightly increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profitability and maintenance plans [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Some coal mines in Shanxi have restarted, but the overall coking coal output is still declining. Coke production has dropped from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coking enterprises' production. Coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and there is still pressure on coal mines to reduce inventory. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3.3 Alloys - For silicon manganese, the lack of arrivals from Gabon in early July supports prices. Although there is an expectation of increased production, factories and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost inversion, so the short - term market is expected to oscillate. For silicon iron, although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is also expected to oscillate [3]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, upstream inventory is accumulating, and the energy cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, cold - repair, and demand sustainability. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. With the resumption of maintenance, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [3][13][15]. 3.6 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products both weakened month - on - month, and the overall inventory increased. However, the inventory of rebar decreased. Driven by a weak fundamental situation and short - term weakening of macro - sentiment, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Shipping and arrivals both decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8][9]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The arrival volume has decreased, and the total daily consumption has also declined. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.6.4 Coke - The market is stable, but the coking enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is expected to weaken. The upward space for coke prices is limited, and there is a downward pressure in the medium term [10][11]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - The supply disturbance is difficult to sustain, and there is an expectation of increased production. The downstream demand is declining in the off - season, and the coal mine inventory reduction pressure remains. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase, and the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [3][12]. 3.6.6 Silicon Manganese - There is an expectation of increased production, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. But due to cost inversion, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][15]. 3.6.7 Silicon Iron - Although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel tenders and production [3][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Neutral [3][4] - Coking coal: Bullish with fluctuations [7] - Coke: Neutral with fluctuations [7] - Other products: No specific ratings provided 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile due to cost support and approaching domestic macro - policy window periods, with attention on off - season demand and inventory performance [1] - Iron ore shows a long - term supply - demand loosening pattern, but short - term price is boosted by coking coal destocking and improved market sentiment [3] - Coking coal prices are expected to be bullish with fluctuations in the short term, and coke prices will be neutral with fluctuations, with attention on post - safety - month production resumption and inventory changes [6][7] - Thermal coal prices will rise slightly in the short term due to supply contraction and expected demand increase, while the medium - to - long - term supply is still loose [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2973 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract at 3103 yuan/ton. Steel inventory destocking paused except for rebar, and apparent demand slightly increased. Rebar production continued to rise this week with slight inventory destocking and stable off - season demand. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased month - on - month, with high production, facing challenges in exports and domestic consumption. Overall, cost support remains due to over - decline in coking coal and coke and safety - month inspections, and steel prices will remain volatile [1] - Strategy: No strategies are recommended for unilateral, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. The main 2509 contract closed at 705.5 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. Spot prices at Tangshan ports increased slightly. Daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons, up 0.11 tons month - on - month. Total port iron ore trading volume was 87.2 tons, down 19.03%, and forward - contract trading volume was 130.6 tons, up 94.93%. Overall, supply is increasing during the shipping peak season, demand is slightly rising, and port inventory is slightly accumulating. In the short term, the price is boosted by coking coal destocking, while in the long term, the supply - demand is loose [3] - Strategy: A neutral stance is recommended for unilateral trading, and no strategies for other types [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, black - series products generally rose, with coking coal futures rising significantly. Coke inventory decreased as steel mills and coking plants increased restocking, and speculative demand also increased. Coking coal prices in northern main - producing areas rose steadily. Port prices were stable with little trading. Imported Mongolian coal prices rebounded due to supply decline, and some downstream coke enterprises increased purchases. Coke fundamentals are improving, and coking coal fundamentals are gradually getting better with supply decline and demand increase [5][6] - Strategy: Coking coal is expected to be bullish with fluctuations, and coke will be neutral with fluctuations. No strategies for other types [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, coal prices continued to rise steadily. Supply tightened as small and medium - sized mines completed monthly production tasks and stopped or reduced production. Metallurgical and chemical procurement demand was stable, and restocking demand was released. Port inventory decreased significantly, and market sentiment was positive. Import coal prices were stable, with medium - and low - calorie coal being cost - effective [8] - Strategy: No strategies are recommended [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cycle of expanding production capacity is not over, and the pressure on the mining end to reduce inventory has marginally eased. The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to reach 1608,000 tons of LCE, a year-on-year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The downstream demand growth rate has been slightly revised down, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in apparent demand. The theoretical cost support in 2025 has dropped to 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and the cost curve is becoming flatter. It is expected that the operating range of the main lithium carbonate contract in the second half of the year will be 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, the unexpectedly high production in the cathode material and cell sectors in January led to an upward revision of the annual demand growth rate, pushing up the price. After the Spring Festival, the over - supply in the salt sector and the negative feedback loop between ore and salt prices dragged down the price. Although some large salt factories started maintenance in April, the supply in the second quarter still increased month - on - month. The cost support moved down due to the decline in the current cost of enterprises, and the market sentiment became more pessimistic [18] 2. The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity is Not Over, and the Pressure on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory has Marginally Eased 2.1 The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity at the Resource End is Not Over - The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to be about 1.608 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The increase mainly comes from the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo and the output of Lagucuo and Daoxian Xiangyuan. Some projects' output has been slightly revised down. China, Africa, Argentina, and Chile have contributed significant year - on - year increments, while Australia's output has slightly decreased. The supply structure has become more diversified, and the risk of supply disruption is controllable [24][27][28] 2.2 The Differentiation between the Growth Rates of the Resource End and the Salt End: How Much Pressure is There on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory? - From January to May, the supply of lithium carbonate in the Chinese market increased by 42% year - on - year, far exceeding the resource end growth rate. The difference is mainly due to inventory changes. Overseas non - integrated miners have stable inventory days. African lithium mines have some inventory pressure, but it is controllable. The inventory in China has been decreasing, and the pressure to further reduce inventory is limited. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate in the second half of the year is likely to approach the resource end growth rate. The inventory of salt lakes in Chile and Argentina is low, and the shipping data can be used as a leading indicator for imports [36][40][51] 3. The Terminal Growth Rate has been Slightly Revised Down, and Attention Should be Paid to the Expected Difference in Apparent Demand 3.1 The Power Terminal Maintains High Growth, and the Uncertainty of Energy Storage has Marginally Increased - In the power terminal, from January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the United States were 44%, 27%, and 3% respectively. The growth rate in China may slow down in the second half of the year, but the end - of - year demand is still worth looking forward to. In Europe, the growth rate has exceeded expectations. In the United States, the policy pressure in the second half of the year is limited. The annual growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales is expected to be maintained at 20% - 26%. In the energy storage terminal, the demand expectation is pessimistic. Domestically, the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation has increased uncertainty, but the high winning bid volume in the first half of the year supports the demand in the second half. Overseas, the demand for exports to the United States may slow down, but the non - US market is performing well. The global energy storage cell shipments are expected to increase by 30% - 40% year - on - year [58][70][83] 3.2 The Inventory Days of Each Downstream Link Remain Neutral - After two years of inventory reduction, the inventory days of each downstream link have returned to a neutral level. The cathode material sector has maintained a low - inventory strategy, and there is little room for further inventory reduction. The cell sector has also achieved inventory reduction. The new energy vehicle inventory level is neutral, and the inventory pressure of some car companies is a structural problem. There may be trading opportunities due to the expected difference between the off - season and the peak season [84][87][88] 4. How to Understand the Downward Shift of Cost Support? - The updated balance sheet shows that the global lithium resources will have a surplus of 228,000 tons of LCE in 2025. The theoretical cost support in 2025 is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, down from the previous range. The cost reduction space of mature Australian mines is limited, while African projects may further reduce costs. The cost curve will become flatter, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced [97][98][102] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the main lithium carbonate contract is expected to operate in the range of 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton. The market is relatively optimistic in the third quarter, and the price may decline at the end of the year. The space for unilateral trading is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the range in early Q3 and short positions at the end of Q3. It is more advisable to focus on the positive spread opportunity of LC2509 - LC2511 [106][107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 25th, glass and soda ash prices fluctuated. As prices continue to decline, the price elasticity at low levels is relatively large [2]. - Glass is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot price is poor, production and sales are weak, inventory accumulation is accelerating, and the outlook has become more pessimistic. Overall, the supply - demand situation may remain weak, with insufficient cost support, and prices are under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - For soda ash, after the end of maintenance, supply has recovered rapidly. There is an expectation of weakening direct demand, and concerns about supply - demand surplus have resurfaced. The profits of float and photovoltaic glass are poor, the negative feedback has intensified, and cost support has weakened. In the short term, prices may tend to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market Data - **Glass Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1159, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 41. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1200, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.08%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 34, with a change of 0. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1166, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between September and January contracts is 7, with a change of 0 [1]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1066, with no change and a change rate of 0.0%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 130. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1107, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.09%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 90, with a change of - 1. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1017, with a change of 2 and a change rate of 0.2%. The price difference between September and January contracts is - 49, with a change of 2 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Glass Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1230; in other regions, it is 1300 and 9960 (assumed to be a data error, might need further clarification). - **Soda Ash Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1350; in other regions, it is 1300 [1]. Basis Data - **Glass Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from - 206 to 283. - **Soda Ash Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from 134 to 213 [1]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the prices of glass and soda ash may tend to fluctuate. Participate with option call options [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Affected by the decline in crude oil and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production, the downward movement of the market is blocked, and it is expected to be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, with a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The price may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the probability of coke price increase is low. The overall market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - Ferroalloy: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline [56]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price may continue to decline [69][70]. - Glass: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low - price situation persists [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the closing prices of some steel contracts changed slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the decline in coal prices and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production and the support of raw material costs, the downward movement is blocked. In the off - season, the demand for steel is weak, and some varieties are facing inventory pressure. The export price also restricts the rise of steel prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The overall fundamentals of iron ore are in a state of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased year - on - year, and China's iron ore imports in June are expected to reach the highest value this year. The demand side is supported by high hot metal production, and the inventory in ports is slightly decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down [20]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of iron ore may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the downstream demand is lack of confidence. The probability of coke price increase is low, and the market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the coking coal and coke contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [41]. Ferroalloy - **Market Trend**: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline. The supply side is under low pressure, and the inventory is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down [56]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the ferroalloy contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan from the previous day [59]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The photovoltaic glass industry is in a loss state, and the demand for soda ash is expected to decline [69]. - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the soda ash contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by nearly 10%. If the market is to achieve supply - demand balance in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline to below 154,000 tons [98]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the glass contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1107 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [99].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market faced multiple pressures of oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory this week, with a pessimistic market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand drivers for soda ash were insufficient, and the price remained weak after breaking through the previous low. In the long term, the soda ash futures and spot markets may continue to be under pressure, although the summer maintenance period may have a certain phased impact on futures prices [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Analysis - The cost of soda ash production is mainly composed of fuel. Rising prices of raw salt, coal, and natural gas will increase production costs, which may lead to price increases and strengthen the market. Recently, the continuous decline in soda ash costs has weakened the cost - side support and increased the downward pressure on prices [8] Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Macroeconomic and Policy Impact**: RMB depreciation (USD/CNY exceeding 7.2) supported export - oriented enterprises, with the export quotation of East China soda ash to Southeast Asia rising 5 - 8% month - on - month, but domestic demand remained weak. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut (over 60% probability of a rate cut in September) led to a short - term rebound in soda ash futures due to macro - sentiment, but the industrial logic of high inventory restricted the increase [9] - **Futures Expectation**: The futures market anticipates a peak season for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year (e.g., the installation volume in Q4 may increase by 30% quarter - on - quarter). Some funds have pre - arranged in the far - month contracts (2509), resulting in a smaller decline in futures prices than in spot prices and a narrowing of the basis [11] Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Each ton of soda ash production consumes about 1.5 tons of raw salt, accounting for 30% - 40% of production costs. In the joint - alkali process, each ton of soda ash production consumes about 0.3 tons of coal, with coal costs accounting for about 20% - 25% [12] - **Mid - stream Processing**: Soda ash (sodium carbonate) and caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) are used in industries such as glass, chemicals, and textiles, and can be substituted in some scenarios. The production of 1 ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali process produces 0.8 tons of synthetic ammonia as a by - product, and the price of synthetic ammonia affects the profits of joint - alkali enterprises [12] - **Downstream Terminal Industries and Consumption - related Products - Glass**: In June, the daily melting volume of float glass was 165,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%, and the number of cold - repaired production lines increased, suppressing the demand for soda ash. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in June was 182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%, supporting the incremental demand for soda ash, but the current inventory days of photovoltaic glass were 25 days (the warning line is 20 days) [12]

铜、铝短期调整或开启 20250622 摘要 电解铝库存下降反映铝水比提升趋势，未来库存或维持低位，需综合考 虑电解铝及铝棒库存数据，上周数据显示铝棒库存及毛利率显著上涨， 行业进入垒库周期，景气下行周期确立。 氧化铝供需偏过剩，价格预计在 2,800-2,900 元区间运行，受限于成本 线。电解铝供给受限，需求或边际走弱，整体利润水平预计维持在 3,000 元上下。 短期铅价受宏观情绪修复和低库存影响出现逼仓，现货价格高于期货。 但宏观和交易层面已达高点，开始回归基本面，全产业链库存开始累库， 加工费下降，短期调整已来临。 美国关税影响有限，电解铝和铜的关键整数位（19,500 元和 75,000 元）成为心理支撑位。季节性波动下，全成本曲线支撑适用，电解铝和 铜分别在 19,000 元以上和 72,000-73,000 元形成较强支撑。 铜市场供需双弱，厂库和社库开始累库，加工费走弱，需求边际走弱。 供给侧受废铜供应紧张和矿端问题扰动，如卡莫阿和卡莫拉矿区矿震导 致减产，短期调整幅度有限。 Q&A 请介绍一下近期铝市场的动态和趋势。 近期铝市场出现了一轮强劲的底部行情，主要受电解铝库存数据影响。电解铝 库 ...