1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week's view on PE is that the decline in price has not significantly compressed the valuation, monomers have rebounded slightly, and there are expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The overall supply of PE is loose, with a 16% growth in total effective production capacity and an 18% increase in domestic production. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply is suppressing prices. The total PE operating rate is 84.5% (+1.8%). [6] - On the demand side, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry has started to decline, and orders are mostly coming to an end. The packaging film market has limited support from the e - commerce festival, and the operating rates of PE packaging film, PE pipes, and PE hollow products have all decreased. [7] - The cost - end support for PE is average. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but considering the decline in the agricultural film operating rate and the increasing supply pressure at the end of the year, the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, putting pressure on prices. [8] - Valuation shows that production profits are generally compressed, and the valuation compression in the monomer segment is the most obvious. The profit margins of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes have slightly declined. In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short position on rebounds for single - sided trading, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure level of 6900 and 7000 and a lower support level of 6750. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price and Spread**: The futures price has declined, the basis in East and South China is relatively strong, and the basis in North China has gradually recovered. The monthly spread is oscillating at a low level. The Chinese CIF price has dropped by $5 - 10. The US market has stopped falling and stabilized, with low - pressure injection molding being weak; the European LD market has recovered, and the high - pressure price in Southeast Asia is relatively high. [18][25] - **Basis/Monthly Spread**: The basis has been significantly repaired, and the North China market has returned to a slight premium. However, after the futures price rebounded, the basis could not keep up, and the monthly spread weakened again at a low level. [8] - **Import Profit**: The import window is open, the non - standard import profit is at a neutral level year - on - year, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. Overseas markets are still expected to destock at the end of the year, and imports may remain at a certain scale. [32] - **Non - standard Spread**: The production of HD film is relatively low, the supply is tight, and the non - standard spread is high. In November, it attracted some petrochemical companies to switch production, and supply pressure may be realized in the middle and late months. LD has also started to weaken month - on - month recently. [35] - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil is oscillating at a low level, naphtha is moving sideways, ethylene has rebounded after a decline, and coal prices are relatively strong. [40] - **PE Production Profit**: Overall profits are compressed, and the valuation compression in the monomer segment is the most obvious. The profit margins of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes have slightly declined. [46] 3.2 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Production Capacity**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal production capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective production capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there will be limited new capacity put into production. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. [50] - **Existing Operating Rate**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base increased, and the total supply increment was obvious. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is currently the same as last year. [51] - **Standard Product Supply**: The production capacity of LLD has been intensively put into operation, and the production ratio is at a neutral level. The maintenance in December is expected to be lower than that in November, and supply is expected to increase. [54] - **Maintenance Plan**: The scale of subsequent maintenance is expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 is currently lower than the same period last year. [56] - **Imports and Exports**: Domestic production has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level year - on - year. In October, some shipments were delayed due to poor transportation turnover, and Iranian imports may increase in November. From December to January next year, overseas petrochemical maintenance will decrease, and supply will increase. The US inventory clearance pressure has been partially relieved, and imports will remain at a relatively high level. Standard product imports are at a low level, and LD imports are the same as last year. Imports from the US and Southeast Asia have decreased year - on - year. In October, imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Middle East increased slightly. [59][62][65] - **Inventory**: Supply is gradually increasing, upstream companies are actively destocking, and some downstream companies have placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continues to decline, and upstream companies are actively selling at reduced prices. The middle and downstream are mainly digesting their previous inventories. [67][70] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has maintained a high level but has weakened this week. The operating rate of the packaging industry is the same as last year, and the enthusiasm for raw material stocking is limited in the downward market. The industry profit is at a high level, but orders are slightly lower year - on - year. The demand for PE pipes has slightly improved in Q4, and the raw material inventory is slightly lower year - on - year. Overall, downstream demand shows signs of marginal decline. [72][79][86][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a rebound, but the upside space is narrowing. In the short term, due to factors such as Iranian plant maintenance and low port unloading leading to significant destocking, there was a concentrated exit of short - positions, driving a co - rising of futures and spot prices. In the medium term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 contract remains the main contradiction, and high daily production and high import volumes may limit the upside price space in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents historical data on the base of methanol on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE), 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: It shows the historical market low - end prices of methanol in Inner Mongolia, Henan, the southern region of Shandong, and the import market price in Taicang from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17]. - **International Spot Prices**: Historical data on the CFR prices of methanol in China and Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Rotterdam from 2020 - 2025 are provided [18][19][20]. - **Port - Inland Price Spreads**: The price spreads between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and the southern region of Shandong from 2020 - 2025 are presented [21][22][23][24]. 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity Summary**: From 2024 - 2025, China added significant methanol production capacity, with 400 million tons in 2024 and 830 million tons in 2025. Internationally, there was also capacity expansion, with 355 million tons in 2024 and 165 million tons in 2025 [26]. - **Maintenance Summary**: Multiple methanol enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025. The report details the annual production capacity, shutdown and startup dates, actual daily losses, and other information of each enterprise [29]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 91.27% [5]. - **Production by Process**: Historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 - 2025 are shown [32][33][34]. - **Capacity Utilization by Region**: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [36][37]. - **Import - Related**: It includes historical data on China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][42][43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Historical data on the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [55][56][57][58]. - **Downstream Profits**: The historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [62][63][66][67][68]. - **Purchasing Volume by Region**: It shows the historical purchasing volumes of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [70][71][72][73][75][76][77][78]. - **Raw Material Inventory by Region**: The historical raw material inventory data of methanol downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [80][81][82][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Historical data on the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China, East China, and Northwest China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [85][86][87]. - **Port Inventory**: Historical data on the weekly port inventory of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 - 2025 are presented [91][92][93].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 核心提示：本周废铝价格稳中上涨，幅度0-100元/吨不等，合金白料、喷涂、铝线价格表现略好于生 铝、铝屑等铸造铝合金原料；预计下周废铝偏稳运行，涨跌空间有限；铝企下游订单不温不火，成品售 价处于贴水状态、利润不足，一定程度上限制废铝原料价格反弹。但华东、西南等多地废铝市场供应偏 紧亦支持其抗跌属性较强，综合来看，预计下期废铝或延续偏稳运行。 一、国内再生铝合金市场分析 1、再生铝合金市场情况 期内A00铝锭重心继续下移，整体表现先涨后跌；截止11月27日，富宝现货A00铝价格在21440-21480 元/吨，均价21460元/吨，环比11月20日跌110元/吨；富宝现货ADC12铝合金锭价格20800元/吨，环比11 月20日平稳；目前华东地区非交割品ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20600-20800元/吨之间，华南ADC12主 流价格20900-21000元/吨，西南地区ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20800-21100元/吨，环保11月20日平 稳。交割品价格多高100-200元/吨不等。 期内铸造铝合金期货先抑后扬，主力合约盘中一度跌至2.02万附近，随后陆续抬升，扳 ...

研究所 期待成本支撑 观望为宜 ----国信期货铁合金周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 锰硅产业链概况 3 硅铁产业链概况 4 总结及后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 行情回顾·要闻概览 研究所 1、中共中央政治局11月28日召开会议，审议《关于二十届中央巡视省（自治区、直辖市）情况的综合报告》。中共中央总书记习近平 主持会议。 2、11月24日，国家发改委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治 理企业价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。 3、国家统计局发布数据，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。其中，钢铁业利润总和 1053.2亿元，同比由亏转盈。 4、MYSTELL数据，本周，五大钢材品种供应855.71万吨，周环比增加5.8万吨，增幅0.7%；总库存1400.81万吨，周环比降32.29万 吨，降幅2.25%；周消费量为888万吨，降0.7%；其中建材消费环比降0.3%，板材消费环比增2.3%。 数据来源：WIND、My ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows limited marginal changes in the current situation, with a weak supply - demand pattern and non - prominent contradictions. The disk price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties, mostly showing following or compensatory fluctuations [16]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectations, as well as among industrial upstream and downstream. The supply - demand and inventory situation remains weak, and the price is affected by factors such as warehouse receipt cancellation and the expected landing of platform companies [18]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased to 2.73 tons, the DMC output increased to 4.99 tons, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to October was 1576.00 tons, and the cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, with a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period, mainly due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [14]. - **Price**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period [15]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2601) closed at 56425 yuan/ton, up 3065 yuan/ton [26]. 03. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period. In October 2025, the output was 40.48 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 63.79 tons year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Producing Areas**: Not specifically summarized in text, but data is presented in relevant charts [33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price and silicon coal price in the main producing areas remained stable week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [44][47]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period. Factory inventory increased by 0.02 tons, market inventory remained unchanged, and registered warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 17.89 tons [50]. 04. Polysilicon - **Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 2.73 tons, showing a continuous decline. The output in November was 11.46 tons, and the cumulative output from January to November was 118.97 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [55]. - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production**: The capacity utilization rate in October was 50.09%, up 0.66 percentage points month - on - month. The expected output in December is 11.35 tons, showing a continuous decline [58]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 28.21 tons (Baichuan Yingfu口径), and the inventory was 28.1 tons (SMM口径) [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41640.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8464.63 yuan/ton [64]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output was 12.02GW, showing a decline. The output in November was 54.37GW, and the cumulative output from January to November was 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The inventory was 19.5GW, showing a slight increase, and the predicted output in December is 45.7GW, showing a significant decline [67][70]. - **Battery Cell**: The output in October was 59.27GW, a decrease of 1.7GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 57.79%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 567.11GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. The inventory was 12.05GW, showing an increase, and the expected output in November is 58.68GW, showing a slight decrease [76][79]. - **Module**: The output in October was 48.1GW, a decrease of 1.8GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 46.85%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%. The finished product inventory was 30.2GW, remaining stable, and the expected output in December is 39.99GW, showing a significant decline [84][87]. 05. Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC output was 4.99 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons compared to the previous period. The output in October was 20.09 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October was 206.27 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.39% [94]. - **Price and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 13100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the DMC gross profit was 1128.13 yuan/ton [97]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC inventory was 4.47 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous period [100]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 28, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21910 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21330 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The cumulative output from January to October was 1576.00 tons, a year - on - year increase of 254.20 tons or 19.23%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5% [105][108]. - **Exports**: The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 tons or 1.66% [111]

氧化铝&电解铝12月报 过剩格局难以撼动，氧化铝低位震荡； 铜铝比或再迎收缩窗口，电解铝震荡为主 2025年11月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 铝土矿供应情况回顾及展望 氧化铝基本面情况回顾及展望 04 电解铝供应端情况回顾及展望 观点与策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，海外多个矿山复产，后续铝土矿发运量或将进一步提升。9月几内亚港 低位震荡 | | | 口出货量回升，我国铝土矿港口库存较高，氧化铝供应仍处过剩状态。需求端， | | | 国内电解铝产能继续高位运行，氧化铝下游需求处于高位。本周国内氧化铝行业 | | | 库存延续累库态势，铝土矿库存高企，内外矿价格均承压，成本支撑或边际走弱。 | | 氧化铝 | 综合来看，几内亚铝土矿供应回升，我国铝土矿供应总量充足，氧化铝供应过剩 | | | 格局将持续，需求端已处于天花板级别，基本面处于供需双强格局。氧化铝过剩 | | | 格局难以反转，成本支撑或走弱，后续减产规模存不确定性，预计12月氧化铝仍 | | | 将维持低位震荡。 | | | 外矿整体发运量环比下行，但外矿价格整体维稳，氧化 ...

锡产业期现日报 テ 广发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月28日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 涨跌幅 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 301800 295200 eeoo 2.24% 250 250 0 0.00% 元/吨 302300 295700 6600 2.23% 185.00 135.00 50.00 37.04% 美元/吨 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 -7.90% -17717.50 -16419.72 -1297.78 元/吨 7.85 7.89 - - 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 -740 -650 -90 -13.85% -360 -480 120 25.00% 元/吨 -90 -120 30 25.00% 370 -30 400 1333.33% 基本面数据(月度) | 指标 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月锡矿进口 | 11632 | 8714 | 2918 | 33.49% | 世 | | SMM精锡10月产量 | 16090 | 1051 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black industry have limited bright spots, and prices are under pressure. Glass and soda ash prices rebounded from low levels due to supply - side disturbances. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, there may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts. Attention should be paid to the potential for short - term upward movements driven by improved macro sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream mines. Port stocks increased, steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased, and the demand for restocking has not been significantly released. Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' profitability declined. The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - The supply of scrap steel increased while demand remained stable. After the price decline, its cost - effectiveness improved, and the downside space is limited. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and relaxation of environmental protection measures, coke supply stabilized. In the short term, the rigid demand from steel mills remained strong, and the total inventory remained low. However, the cost support for spot goods continued to weaken, and the market expected price cuts. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Domestic coking coal supply remained low, and its fundamentals have not significantly weakened. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation of restocking for winter storage. The near - term futures contracts are affected by delivery, and the price is expected to oscillate. The far - term contracts are undervalued, and the fundamentals strongly support the price [3] Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon provides support, but the market supply and demand remain loose, and the upward pressure on prices is significant. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6]. - The firm cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply and demand are still loose, suppressing the upward price space. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions for glass, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices; otherwise, prices may rise. The soda ash price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is weakening, and the steel inventory is higher than the same period last year. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and the profitability continued to decline. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply increased while demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Coke**: Supply increased as profits improved, and cost support weakened. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals marginally weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. - **Glass**: Affected by the expected price increase from manufacturers, the sales improved. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be under pressure; otherwise, they may rise [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost provides support, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost supports the bottom, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Tin - Consider the strong fundamentals and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [1][2] Polysilicon - Expect a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation in each link. However, strong spot support will keep prices oscillating in a high - level range. The reverse market structure may continue. Advise cautious trading [4] Industrial Silicon - Anticipate that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at a low level. There will be a decline in both supply and demand in November, with a relatively large supply decline, but there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [6] Zinc - The price is boosted by interest - rate cut expectations. The supply - side pressure is limited, and the demand side shows a structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and attention should be paid to structural risks. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [7] Copper - The probability of a December interest - rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro - level drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 86000 - 88000 yuan/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - The market maintains a situation of both strong supply and demand. The downstream demand is optimistic, and social inventory is decreasing. However, there may be pressure from high hidden inventory of traders. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [11] Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main reference range of 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton [13] Nickel - The macro - level is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. The short - term upward drive is limited, and the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [14] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern under cost support and demand resilience. The main contract reference range is 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton [15] Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [16] Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price Changes**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.24% to 301800 yuan/ton, and the price of长江 1 tin increased by 2.23% to 302300 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons [1] - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6229 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7654 tons [2] Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock increased by 0.10% to 52300 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44% to 2.40 million tons, and the monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.69% to 28.10 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 4.17% to 19.50 million tons [4] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon increased by 0.53% to 9550 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 233.33% to - 50 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.95% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% to 55.00 million tons [6] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.22% to 22450 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 3.01% to 14.81 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.75% to 5.1 million tons [7] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.50% to 87085 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [8] - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 10.80% to 17.35 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 0.43% to 15.72 million tons [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.54% to 93300 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92260 tons, and lithium carbonate demand increased by 8.70% to 126961 tons [11] - **Inventory Changes**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84234 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 13.50% to 53291 tons [11] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.28% to 21460 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [13] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.03% to 59.60 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.12% to 54.1 million tons [13] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.71% to 119000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.74% to - 220 dollars/ton [14] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel production decreased by 4.84% to 110810 yuan/ton, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel production increased by 3.75% to 129484 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35900 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39795 tons [14] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21350 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% to 28.60 million tons [15] - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.59% to 5.56 million tons [15] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [16] - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.92% to 50.24 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.77% to 30.25 million tons [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].