Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Dingbian County is experiencing a significant upward trend, contrasting sharply with the declining prices in major cities like Xi'an, driven by high demand and limited supply [5][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Dingbian County's new housing prices have surpassed 5000 yuan per square meter as of October 2025, a notable increase from under 4000 yuan per square meter in 2022, marking a cumulative rise of over 25% in three years [5][6]. - In contrast, Xi'an's second-hand housing prices have dropped to an average of 12,234 yuan per square meter as of September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1% and a nearly 25% decrease over three years [5][6]. - The local economy heavily relies on the oil industry, with Dingbian being the largest oil and gas production county in China, which supports the rising housing demand [9][10]. Group 2: Buyer Profiles - There are two primary buyer categories in Dingbian: those purchasing for marriage, often with high standards for housing, and parents seeking homes in desirable school districts due to new policies requiring early home purchases for school enrollment [11][12]. - The demand from families relocating to the county for educational opportunities has contributed to the sustained housing price increases, as rural populations continue to migrate to urban areas [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current housing price surge is uncertain, with concerns about potential price corrections as new housing projects are set to be completed in the coming years, which may increase supply [20]. - Local residents express mixed feelings about the rapid price increases, with some considering selling their properties to capitalize on the current market conditions [19]. - The recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a general decline in housing prices across major cities, raising questions about the longevity of Dingbian's price growth [21].

Group 1 - US stock markets saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.91%, Nasdaq up 0.06%, and S&P 500 up 0.35% [1] - Chinese concept stocks experienced mixed performance, with Kaixin Auto rising over 3% and Futu Holdings up over 2%, while Fangdd, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, NIO, Weibo, and iQIYI all saw declines of over 2% to 5% [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payroll report for September was not released as scheduled due to the government shutdown, affecting the announcement of employment changes and unemployment rates [2] - The US government shutdown entered its third day, with ongoing negotiations in Congress regarding temporary funding measures, and President Trump considering significant federal job cuts [3] Group 3 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI crude nearing $60, marking a four-month low, influenced by the US government shutdown and potential production increases from OPEC+ [4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the supply security from Russia and Iran, may lead to significant short-term volatility in oil prices [4] Group 4 - Japanese stock markets surged significantly, driven by comments from the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, emphasizing the need to maintain a loose monetary environment to support the economy [5] - Kuroda noted various uncertainties in Japan's economic outlook, particularly the potential impact of US economic and monetary policy on Japan's economy and prices [5]

Core Insights - The basis of alumina futures is expected to change, reflecting the difference between spot and futures prices, which is a normal occurrence driven by various factors [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Changes - Supply and demand dynamics: Short-term shortages or surpluses in the spot market, such as production increases or decreases in electrolytic aluminum plants, directly impact the basis [3] - Futures contract expiration: As the delivery month approaches, the basis typically converges, meaning futures prices align more closely with spot prices [3] - Storage and transportation costs: Logistics bottlenecks, such as port inventories and railway capacity, can widen the basis [3] - Policies and tariffs: Adjustments in export tariffs and environmental production limits may cause regional basis fluctuations [3] Group 2: Basis Change Patterns - Positive basis (spot premium): Common during periods of spot shortages, such as the 2022 European energy crisis that led to reduced aluminum production and a premium for spot alumina [3] - Negative basis (futures premium): Anticipation of future surpluses, such as new mines coming online, may lead futures prices to reflect this ahead of time [3] Group 3: Implications for Traders - Hedging: Companies need to dynamically adjust positions to hedge against basis risks [3] - Arbitrage opportunities: Deviations from historical averages in the basis may present opportunities for spot-futures arbitrage [3] - Delivery decisions: As the delivery month approaches, it is essential to assess the convergence path of the basis [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways to bearish [2] - Iron ore: Sideways to bearish [5] - Coking coal: Sideways [8] - Coke: Sideways [8] - Thermal coal: No strategy provided [10] Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward. The inventory pressure will increase after the pre - holiday restocking ends, and supply control is needed later [1]. - Iron ore shipments have slightly rebounded, and the price is oscillating downward. It shows a situation of strong supply and demand in the short term, and the price will remain range - bound [3][4]. - The double - coking market has strong risk - aversion sentiment and is oscillating. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the demand for coke remains resilient [6][8]. - The thermal coal market has intensified wait - and - see sentiment, and the coal price in the production area is running weakly. The price will be under pressure in the short term [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The national urban inventory of building materials was 491.96 million tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; the national urban inventory of hot - rolled coils was 221.74 million tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The domestic macro - policy is in a wait - and - see period. Steel inventory has been accumulating, weaker than seasonal performance. After the pre - holiday restocking, the inventory pressure of finished products will increase. Attention should be paid to steel consumption after the National Day holiday, and supply suppression is needed to relieve the inventory pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The total cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 584,000 tons, a 46.00% week - on - week increase; the cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 1.1 million tons, a 110% week - on - week increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total shipment volume of 347.54 million tons, a 4.5% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 236.05 million tons, an 11.8% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this week, with strong shipment resilience. The arrival volume increased rapidly. The demand for iron ore is resilient as steel mills have good profits and no intention to cut production actively. The port inventory increased slightly, and the floating inventory decreased. The steel mill's iron ore inventory increased seasonally and is at a high level in the same period. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. The price will remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and coal price changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for other aspects [5]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures oscillated weakly throughout the day. The main contracts of coking coal and coke both fell, with declines of 4.98% and 4.16% respectively. The price of imported coal fell with the disk, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the holiday approaches, speculative demand has declined, and some funds have strong risk - aversion sentiment. For coking coal, supply is relatively loose, and demand from downstream coking enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. For coke, the daily output has decreased, and downstream steel mills still have relatively high production enthusiasm, and the consumption demand is resilient [8]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [8]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the market is running weakly as the holiday approaches. The prices of most coal mines are under pressure to decline. In the port area, the market sentiment is average, and the transaction price has slightly decreased. The price of imported coal is stable, and the trading activity has decreased [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the double - festival holiday approaches, the wait - and - see sentiment in the market has intensified. The price will oscillate in the short term, and the supply is expected to remain loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, with demand support limited, and price drivers are weak. BZ2603 should follow styrene and oil prices in a volatile manner [1]. - Styrene supply is expected to increase, and demand support may be limited. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. EB11 should be treated as a short - term short opportunity on price rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX supply is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and prices are under pressure [6]. - PTA new device commissioning is postponed, and there is short - term support for the basis due to downstream restocking demand [7]. - MEG is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter, with high supply in October [6]. - Short - fiber has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern, and prices fluctuate with limited up - and - down drivers [8]. - Bottle - chip may enter a downward phase in the fourth quarter, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE's current maintenance is at a high point, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. The 01 contract has high inventory pressure. PP has high production losses, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, the demand is lackluster [10][11]. Urea - The urea market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with high production, weak demand, and a downward - trending price [15]. Methanol - The core contradiction in the methanol market is the game between high current supply and the expected supply tightening due to potential Iranian gas restrictions. The near - term contract's downside is limited, and it is necessary to closely monitor Iranian device dynamics [17]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to supply - side concerns. The market's view on supply has shifted, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Band - trading is recommended [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic soda has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, there may be a change in the supply - demand pattern due to downstream capacity expansion [28]. - PVC's domestic demand is weak, but exports relieve some pressure. The price has limited downside during the peak season, and cost support is at the bottom [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and most pure benzene and styrene - related prices and spreads also changed slightly [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of most pure benzene and styrene downstream products increased [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while styrene inventory increased [1]. - **Industry Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - **PX**: PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook is weak [4][6]. - **PTA**: PTA prices were stable, and processing fees decreased slightly. New device commissioning was postponed [5][7]. - **MEG**: MEG prices changed slightly, and it is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices fluctuate [8]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is a potential new device commissioning in the fourth quarter, and demand support is insufficient [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed slightly, and spreads also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE and PP device start - up rates increased, and downstream weighted start - up rates also increased [10][11]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea prices decreased slightly, and basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [15]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed slightly, and spreads and basis also changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream and downstream start - up rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined product prices decreased, and spreads and cracking spreads also changed [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC start - up rates and industry profits changed [24]. - **Demand**: Downstream start - up rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [25][26]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories changed [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Report Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high due to upcoming restarts and new capacity, while demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red and some downstream plants plan to cut production. The price driver is weak, and BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate with styrene and oil prices [1]. - Styrene supply is expected to increase with new plant startups and restarts, but demand support may be limited as some downstream profits are under pressure and inventories are high. The price is expected to face pressure, and EB11 should be shorted on rebounds [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to increase significantly in Q4, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees and potential PTA plant maintenance. PXN is expected to compress, and PX11 can be shorted or observed before the holiday [5]. - PTA supply is expected to contract due to low processing fees, postponed new plant startups, and potential maintenance. However, the rebound space is limited. TA can be shorted or observed before the holiday, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse [5]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter a destocking phase in Q4 as supply remains high and demand enters the off - season. It is recommended to observe before the holiday [5]. - Short - fiber support is strong in the short term but the rebound driver is limited during the holiday. It should follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 100 [5]. - Bottle - chip is likely to enter a seasonal destocking phase in Q4 as demand support is insufficient. PR should follow the cost end, and the processing fee can be shorted when it is high [5]. Polyolefin Industry - PE is at the peak of maintenance and production is gradually recovering. Inventory has decreased this week, but future supply and imports need attention. PP has seen an increase in unplanned maintenance due to losses, and inventory has decreased. However, there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday, and new capacity will limit the upside [10]. Urea Industry - Urea prices are oscillating downward due to a loose supply - demand pattern. Domestic production remains high, factory inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. Export policies and Indian tenders have not yet boosted market confidence [18]. Methanol Industry - The core contradiction in the methanol market is the game between the current high supply pressure and the expected supply tightening due to potential gas restrictions in Iran. Supply pressure persists, but the expected supply cut in the future limits the downside of near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to Iranian plant dynamics in October [21]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell overnight due to expectations of increased supply, including potential OPEC+ production increases and the resumption of Iraqi Kurdish exports. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks to supply concerns, and prices are expected to move in a range. Band trading is recommended, and options can be considered after volatility increases [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic soda demand has short - term support, but the long - term outlook depends on downstream restocking. PVC supply is in excess, and demand is weak, but exports and cost support limit the downside. Attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand in Q4 [31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (Nov) decreased by $0.16 to $70.13/barrel, a 0.2% decline; WTI crude (Oct) decreased by $2.27 to $63.45/barrel, a 3.5% decline [1]. - CFR Japan naphtha decreased by $1 to $608/ton, a 0.2% decline; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased by $5 to $810/ton, a 0.6% decline [1]. - CFR China pure benzene decreased by $1 to $724/ton, a 0.1% decline [1]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price decreased by $30 to $6910/ton, a 0.4% decline; EB futures 2510 decreased by $28 to $6878/ton, a 0.4% decline [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows - Phenol cash flow decreased by $28 to - $408/ton, a 7.4% decline; Caprolactam cash flow (single product) decreased by $40 to - $2010/ton, a 2.0% decline [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons to 10.60 million tons, a 0.9% decline; Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.10 million tons to 19.75 million tons, a 5.9% increase [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 79.0%; Domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.9% to 79.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude (Nov) decreased by $2.16 to $67.97/barrel, a 3.1% decline; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by $1 to $607/ton, a 0.2% decline [5]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by $45 to $6650/ton, a 0.7% increase; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at $7840/ton [5]. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX increased by $3 to $817/ton; PX spot price (RMB) decreased by $61 to $6694/ton [5]. PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price remained unchanged at $4590/ton; TA futures 2601 increased by $6 to $4652/ton [5]. MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Forecast - MEG port inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 40.9 million tons, a 12.4% decline; MEG arrival forecast increased by 7.3 million tons to 23.4 million tons [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.2% to 78.2%; China PX operating rate increased by 0.4% to 86.3% [5]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Closing Prices - L2601 closed at $7181, up $22 or 0.31%; PP2601 closed at $6903, up $10 or 0.15% [10]. Spot Prices - East China PP raffia spot price increased by $20 to $6750/ton; North China LLDPE film material spot price increased by $10 to $7100/ton [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.8 million tons, a 6.53% decline; PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.0 million tons, a 5.50% decline [10]. Urea Industry Futures Closing Prices - 01 contract closed at $1664, down $5 or 0.30%; Methanol main contract closed at $2359, up $4 or 0.17% [13]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small particles) spot price remained unchanged at $1600/ton; Shanxi (small particles) spot price remained unchanged at $1490/ton [17]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.10 million tons to 19.94 million tons, a 0.50% decline; Coal - based urea daily production decreased by 0.10 million tons to 15.75 million tons, a 0.63% decline [18]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at $2359, up $4 or 0.17%; Inner Mongolia North Line spot price increased by $5 to $2090/ton [21]. Methanol Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.05% to 31.994%; Methanol port inventory decreased by 6.56 million tons to 149.2 million tons [21]. Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.61% to 74.27%; Downstream - externally - sourced MTO plant operating rate increased by 7.38% to 82.46% [21]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent closed at $67.97/barrel, down $2.16 or 3.08%; WTI closed at $63.14/barrel, down $0.31 or 0.49% [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 1.03 cents to 198.48 cents/gallon; NYM ULSD decreased by 1.60 cents to 234.06 cents/gallon [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.15 to $20.22/barrel; European gasoline crack spread increased by $0.21 to $18.86/barrel [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at $2500/ton; East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by $10 to $4730/ton [31]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - FOB East China port remained unchanged at $400/ton; Export profit decreased by $58.7 to $164.7/ton [31]. PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at $650/ton; Export profit increased by $22.4 to $72.6/ton [31]. Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits - PVC total operating rate increased by 0.7% to 76.1%; Externally - sourced calcium carbide - based PVC profit decreased by $90 to - $896/ton [31]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates - Alumina industry operating rate remained unchanged at 83.7%; Viscose staple fiber industry operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8% [31]. Demand: PVC Downstream Product Operating Rates - Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 1.3% to 39.1%; Longzhong sample profile operating rate decreased by 0.5% to 38.0% [31]. Chlor - Alkali Inventory: Social & Factory Inventories - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 19.7 million tons, a 14.2% increase; PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 1.2 million tons to 31.8 million tons [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is strong, with overall supply - demand conditions improving. However, due to the approaching end of pre - holiday restocking and weakening market sentiment, the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the start - up rates in the north and south regions and the start - up rate of polysilicon [5][6]. - For polysilicon, there is an increase in supply and weak demand, with a growing risk of inventory accumulation. Market sentiment is gradually weakening, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. The price transmission in the industrial chain should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 8960 yuan/ton [5][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's production is stable with a small amount of restarts next week; the start - up rate in the northwest is basically stable; Yunnan's start - up rate is stable overall, and the electricity price will increase in October; Sichuan's production is basically flat, and a reduction is expected in late October. Overall, this week's production is basically stable [5]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the demand for silicon powder orders from silicon material enterprises has been released. The production of silicon materials in October is expected to remain high, strongly supporting the demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon has fluctuated slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained stable. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, the same as last week [6]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 51,465 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The start - up of polysilicon has increased slightly this week. In October, the production plan shows that the production cut of silicon material enterprises is less than expected, and the overall output may exceed expectations [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises are mostly in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. In August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity hit a new low this year, and the Q4 downstream demand needs to be tracked. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%; in July, the export was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the premium of N - type dense material over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week [24]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica**: As of September 26, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silicon coal was 1600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silica was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Yunnan silica was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Other Costs**: The price of Shandong Port Saudi petroleum coke was 1355 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained unchanged from last week. The price of Yunnan wood chips and charcoal, as well as the price of Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes, remained stable [31][35]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of September 26, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.4, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The price of 210RN has adjusted back to 1.4 yuan/piece [38]. - **Batteries**: As of September 26, 2025, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.32, 0.32, 0.29, and 0.305 yuan/watt respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The prices of some distributed products have declined, while the prices of centralized products have rebounded [42][45]. Organic Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of organic silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, but there is a large downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their trends are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal demand [1][2][4] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On September 26, WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 0.93%, and SC rose 0.04%. The international oil price rose and then fell last Friday [5] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to - late September, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, causing oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting. In the medium - to - long term, supply surplus may push oil prices down to around $60 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by pipeline attacks and export resumptions; demand in India decreased in August; US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending September 19 [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [490 - 500] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PG main contract closed at 4258 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price weakened, downstream chemical demand increased, but supply was abundant due to high refinery operating rates and high warehouse receipts, suppressing LPG prices [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10) [16] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is supported by the peak season of shed films. Pay attention to downstream restocking [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (-5) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, supply pressure may ease, and downstream demand is entering the peak season. Pay attention to downstream restocking [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16) [26] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is stronger than demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro sentiment support the bottom. Pay attention to restocking and inventory reduction [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6676 (-21) yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. PX inventory is high, and the cost - end oil price is under pressure [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6630 - 6720] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4590 (+5) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance, and demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand is in tight balance, expected to be loose in Q4 [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options. Focus on the range of [4630 - 4690] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4311 (+6) yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly reduced load, overseas devices changed little. Terminal consumption improved short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. Inventory is low, supporting prices [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4255] for EG01 [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2293 (-1) yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains large, but demand has improved, and social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [43] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1600 (-10) yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Views - The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on copper supply and prices is long - term, and copper prices are likely to rise. Aluminum prices are expected to decline in the short - term but can be considered for long - positions at low prices. Zinc prices will maintain a weak oscillation. Lead prices will oscillate in the short - term and may face pressure after the holiday. Nickel and stainless steel prices are in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long term, and short - positions can be held at high prices. Tin prices are expected to be supported and should be traded within a range. Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other products need to pay attention to policy and market supply - demand changes. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, but the impact of mining rights issues needs to be watched [2][4]. Group 2: Metal - Specific Summaries Copper - **Price Movement**: This week, copper prices soared and then fell back from high levels. The Grasberg mine accident led to a short - term increase in prices, but the impact is long - term. Short - term prices may continue to oscillate at high levels, with support at 80,500. - **Supply and Demand**: The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia will reduce production by about 270,000 tons in 2026. Domestic refineries are in a high - maintenance period, and inventory has decreased slightly. - **Market Factors**: High copper prices have weakened domestic consumption, and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. Macro factors are strong overseas and weak domestically. - **Investment Advice**: Before the holiday, it is recommended to trade cautiously and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. Guinea's bauxite prices decreased, and alumina prices weakened. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity also increased slightly. Downstream demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased significantly. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to go long at low prices, and for alumina, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices oscillated weakly last week. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and refinery profits are high, resulting in high refined zinc production. Terminal consumption in the peak season recovered limitedly, and downstream enterprises maintained just - in - time procurement. - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to trade with a short - bias within the range [2]. Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices oscillated after rising from low levels. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased due to enterprise shutdowns and maintenance, and inventory decreased to a four - month low. However, the post - holiday supply is expected to increase. - **Investment Advice**: In the short - term, lead prices may continue to oscillate, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 17,000 - 17,300 [2]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices rose and then fell last week. - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply may be abundant, refined nickel is in surplus, and nickel - iron price increases are limited. Stainless steel production is high, and inventory has increased. - **Investment Advice**: In the medium - to - long term, nickel supply is in surplus. It is recommended to hold short - positions at high prices, and stainless steel should be traded within a range [4]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is tight, and downstream consumption in the semiconductor and other industries is recovering. Inventory is at a medium level. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to trade within the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon prices oscillated widely. - **Supply and Demand**: Production increased slightly, and inventory increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon also increased slightly, and the photovoltaic industry's production schedule may decline in October. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to trade with a long - bias in the short - term or wait and see [4]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: Carbonate lithium prices oscillated horizontally. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and South American imports may supplement supply. Downstream demand in the energy - storage sector is good. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade cautiously, and pay attention to the impact of mining rights issues in Yichun [4]. Group 3: Macro - Economic Data 9/22 - 9/28 Week - China's September LPR remained unchanged, with the one - year at 3% and the five - year at 3.5%. - The eurozone's September consumer confidence index improved, and the comprehensive PMI exceeded expectations. - The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMI declined, but the second - quarter GDP growth was revised upwards to 3.8%. The August core PCE price index was in line with expectations [13][17][19]. 9/29 - 10/5 Week - Forecast data for various economic indicators such as the eurozone's economic sentiment index, China's official PMI, and the US consumer confidence index are provided, but the actual values are not announced [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the macro factors are bullish, but there is still a probability of short - term OPEC bearish news. When China faces the issue of holiday positions, long - term positions are not considered cost - effective. Short - term long positions in crude oil should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's final statement [3]. - For methanol, the supply side has a decline in start - up and lower corporate profits, with subsequent marginal increase in domestic supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals have improved marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. - For urea, the futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. - For natural rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. - For polypropylene, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For p - xylene (PX), the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For purified terephthalic acid (PTA), the supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For ethylene glycol (EG), the domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.49%, to 491.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 35.00 yuan/ton, or 1.21%, to 2918.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.16%, to 3475.00 yuan/ton. In Europe, gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while fuel oil and naphtha inventories decreased [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro factors are bullish, but there is a short - term OPEC bearish risk. Long positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's statement [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 2 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained flat, and southern Shandong rose by 5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 105. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 29 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has a decline in start - up and lower profits, with subsequent marginal increase in supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a small number of regions seeing price drops. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 5 yuan to 1669 yuan, with a basis of - 69. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 51 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit production, the seasonality usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand expectation is improving. Bears think the macro expectation is uncertain, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply improvement may be less than expected. As of September 25, 2025, the all - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.04%, and the semi - steel tire production load was 74.52%. As of September 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.1 million tons, or 1% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 38 yuan to 4897 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 157 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79%, with an increase of 2%. The downstream start - up rate was 47.8%, with a decrease of 1.5%. Factory inventory and social inventory increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The basis was - 49 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 117.5 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 73.2%, with a decrease of 0.20%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted start - up rate was 42.79%, with a decrease of 2.07% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The basis was 1 yuan/ton, and the upstream start - up rate was 80.73%, with a decrease of 0.74%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 43%, with an increase of 0.08% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 77.05%, with an increase of 2.32%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 51.45%, with an increase of 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. P - Xylene (PX) - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 18 yuan to 6656 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 814 dollars. The basis was 20 yuan. The 11 - 1 spread was 22 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 86.7%, with an increase of 0.4%, and the Asian load was 78%, with a decrease of 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The PXN was 209 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread was 104 dollars [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4646 yuan. The East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4590 yuan. The basis was - 74 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 1.1 million tons to 209 million tons. The spot processing fee rose 19 yuan to 211 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 14 yuan to 294 yuan [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 33 yuan to 4213 yuan. The East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4294 yuan. The basis was 61 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 63 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, with a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 708 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 713 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 617 yuan [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35].