Core Viewpoint - The investment market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical instability and high U.S. Treasury yields, with specific price targets set for the upcoming week [2][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have risen significantly from a low of 3120 to a high of 3365, marking an increase of 210 USD, indicating strong safe-haven demand [4]. - The technical outlook suggests that gold could reach 3400 in the near term, with a potential to break above 3500 if market conditions remain favorable [4]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3280 and 3320, with a strong bullish trend expected as long as these levels hold [4][5]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have also followed the upward trend of gold, with recent trading indicating a peak at 33.7, aligning with bullish expectations [5][6]. - The current resistance level for silver is at 34, and while the outlook remains bullish, caution is advised against chasing prices at high levels [5][6]. - Support levels for silver are noted at 32.5, with a potential shift in trend if this level is breached [5][6]. Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic gold and silver markets are mirroring international trends, with specific contracts showing upward movements and previous positions being closed for profit [5][6]. - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to see targets of 790 and 815, while the domestic silver contract (沪银) is projected to reach 8400 [5][6]. - The overall strategy for domestic markets emphasizes waiting for reasonable pullbacks before entering new positions, rather than chasing high prices [5][6]. Group 4: Oil Market Overview - The international oil market has shown resilience, with prices rebounding after testing the 60 support level, indicating a continued bullish trend as long as this support holds [6][7]. - The domestic fuel oil market is also expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with key support at 2680 and a target of 2800 [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price is volatile, and attention should be paid to correction risks [14] - US Dollar Index: Short - term volatility [18] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term weak and volatile [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [24] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [28] - Thermal Coal: Price may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] - Iron Ore: Short - term weak and volatile [31] - Edible Oils: Expected to be volatile under the influence of US biofuel policies [35] - Coking Coal/Coke: Weak in the medium - and long - term [36] - Sugar: Second consecutive year of production increase brings little pressure to the market [41] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may remain in low - level oscillation [43] - Cotton: Cautiously optimistic about the future, but short - term may be volatile due to insufficient demand [47] - Corn: Spot and futures prices are expected to rise [48] - Live Pigs: Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [50] - Soybean Meal: Futures prices are temporarily volatile [54] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: Short - term single - side light - position waiting and see, spot hedging on rebounds [59] - Alumina: Suggest waiting and seeing [62] - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term bearish, but short - term decline space is limited [64] - Polysilicon: Uncertain, pay attention to supply - side changes [68] - Industrial Silicon: Spot price may bottom out, but short - side risks exist for futures [70] - Nickel: Short - term range - bound operation, consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term [73] - Lead: Short - term waiting and seeing, start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [75] - Zinc: Short - term shorting on rebounds, consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [77] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term volatility [79] - Crude Oil: Weak short - term rebound drivers [83] - Bottle Chips: Processing fees are expected to remain low, pay attention to supply - side changes [85] - Soda Ash: Short - term support from maintenance, medium - term shorting on rebounds [86] - Float Glass: Prices will remain low, pay attention to real - estate policy changes [88] Core Views - Tariff issues between the US and the EU have a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has triggered market risk - aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar, and stock index futures. The postponement of tariffs has also changed market sentiment and expectations [12][13][17] - The supply and demand situation in the commodity market is complex. In the coal market, over - supply persists, and prices are under pressure. In the agricultural product market, factors such as production, inventory, and consumption seasons affect prices. In the metal market, factors like production capacity, inventory, and policy adjustments play important roles [29][39][64] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU and 25% tariffs on Apple, which triggered market risk - aversion and pushed up gold prices. Then he postponed the EU tariff deadline to July 9. Short - term gold prices are volatile, and the next wave of increase needs a catalyst [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump postponed the EU tariff deadline, indicating that the US and the EU have entered a negotiation window. The short - term market risk preference has increased, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US - EU tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the risk of tariff hikes still exists. The market sentiment has weakened, and US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market lacks a clear trading theme, and the bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Bank deposit and large - scale certificate of deposit interest rates have been lowered. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has put pressure on global risk assets, and domestic stock index futures suggest balanced allocation [25][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - South Korea's coal imports in April decreased by 20.16% year - on - year. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high - cost imported coal has been squeezed out. Coal prices may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in May, but it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices are in an oscillating market, and are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [31] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased in May, and export data varied. The US biofuel policy affects soybean oil prices. The edible oil market is expected to be volatile [34][35] 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is weakly stable. Coking coal prices are falling, and the supply - demand structure is difficult to change without significant supply - side cuts. Coal and coke are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 24/25 sugar - making season in the country has ended. Yunnan's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. Although the national sugar production has increased, the pressure on the market is not large due to the fast sales progress [39] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of starch sugar has increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of starch is expected to improve. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [42][43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - EU clothing imports increased in March, mainly due to price increases. China's cotton exports increased in April. US cotton new - crop signing is sluggish. Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile in the short - term, and the future is cautiously optimistic [44][45][47] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn warehouse receipts reached a high, and the basis turned positive. The new wheat crop may have a reduced yield. Corn supply and demand gap has not been filled, and prices are expected to rise [48] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market supply of live pigs will continue to be excessive in the future. It is recommended to short on rebounds [50] 2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought area in the US soybean - producing area has decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. Futures prices are temporarily volatile [51][53] 2.11 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The use of special bonds to acquire land has accelerated. Steel production and inventory data show that steel prices are under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be oscillating [55][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Alumina) - National alumina inventory decreased. Prices increased slightly. Alumina production capacity is expected to gradually recover [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The EU has postponed two matters of the battery bill, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the short - term decline space is limited [63][64] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic enterprise plans to invest in Indonesia. Polysilicon prices are slightly falling. The supply - demand situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [65][66] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon technical transformation project has started. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is not improving. Spot prices lack the impetus to rebound [69] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased. The supply - demand situation of nickel is complex, with limited upward and downward space. Short - term range - bound operation and medium - term shorting on rebounds are recommended [71][73] 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply - demand situation of lead is weak in the short - term, but medium - term long opportunities are emerging [74] 2.18 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. Zinc mine processing fees are increasing, and supply is expected to be loose. Short - term shorting on rebounds and medium - term long - short spreads are recommended [76][77] 2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are oscillating. Future temperature and wind power generation in Europe will affect carbon prices [78] 2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran - US nuclear negotiations are progressing. US oil drilling rigs have decreased. Short - term crude oil price rebound drivers are weak [80][81] 2.21 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, with partial slight decreases. Supply pressure is increasing, and processing fees are expected to remain low [84][85] 2.22 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is slightly adjusted, and demand is average. Short - term maintenance may support prices, and medium - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [86] 2.23 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are falling. The spot market is stable in some areas and weak in others. Glass prices are expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to increased market risk aversion following President Trump's tariff announcements and growing concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [1][3] - Gold prices surged nearly 2% on Friday, with a weekly increase of nearly 5%, driven by safe-haven investments amid fears regarding U.S. fiscal challenges and trade relations [1] - Upcoming economic events, including the release of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting minutes and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, are expected to influence market reactions and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that gold has successfully broken through resistance levels of 3250 and 3320, showing a clear upward trend, although it faces strong resistance around 3370 [6] - The current market is experiencing a corrective phase after previous highs, with potential for further upward movement if stimulated by upcoming news [6] - The expected market behavior for the following week suggests a continuation of the upward trend, with key resistance at 3370 and support at 3320 [6][8]

Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices have surged nearly 6% this week, reaching a near two-week high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over U.S. fiscal issues and geopolitical tensions [1] - The COMEX gold futures for May delivery rose by 2.17%, closing at $3363.60 per ounce [1] - As gold approaches the $3400 mark, it is expected to respond positively to headlines regarding U.S. fiscal challenges, trade relations, and geopolitical events, potentially aiming for historical highs [1] Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" due to concerns over a $36 trillion debt, highlighting the failure of past administrations to address significant fiscal deficits [2] - The U.S. national debt has escalated from $4.5 trillion in 2007 to a historic high today, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from approximately 35% to 100% [2] - Rising bond yields, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, indicate growing investor concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt [2][3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including stalled negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, have further boosted gold prices [4] - The U.S. trade situation is also tense, with President Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has contributed to a decline in the dollar index [4][5] Group 4: Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market currently anticipates a 27% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, with potential adjustments depending on economic data fluctuations [6] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance suggests that any rate cuts will be contingent on the impact of tariffs and overall economic conditions, which could benefit gold prices [6] - The ongoing debt issues in the U.S. are expected to hinder the dollar's recovery, especially if the Senate approves spending bills without significant changes [6] Group 5: Investment Sentiment - Short-term bullish sentiment in gold is driven by momentum traders and long-term investors seeking to hedge against policy uncertainties [7] - The combination of tactical and strategic buying is likely to create conditions for a sustained rebound in gold prices, potentially targeting the historical high of $3500 [7]

| 佤邦尚未复产前,锡价基本面支撑较强。 | | | 震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、供给走强,需求走弱。2、进入低估值区间。3、需求端没有改 | | 工业硅 | 震荡 | | | 善、库存压力没有缓解。 | | | | | | 1、注册仓单量极少。2、首次交割在即,注册仓单量极少。3、期 | | 多晶硅 | | 货贴水现货,注册仓单意愿低。 | | 1、供给未现进一步收缩。2、显现库存持续累库,下游原料库存 | | 炭酸锂 | | | | 高位。3、价格低位下,下游仍维持刚需采买。 | | | | | | 现货处于旺季向淡季切换的窗口期,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 出口可能转弱的潜在风险仍未探明,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 热卷 | 看空 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 震荡 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水见顶预期,但供给端暂时没故事讲,关注钢材压力 | | 锰矿过剩预期下仍有下降预期,且品种仓单压力重。 | | 新住 | 看空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term long - allocation, medium - to - long - term short - allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: Strong - side oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On - hold [8] - PTA: On - hold [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Viewpoints - For the black industry, the previous policy - and sentiment - driven upward momentum is weakening, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - In the financial market, with the phased results of Sino - US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, the market risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and long positions in stock index futures can be held. Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation, and light long positions can be held [4] - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics affect its price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [4] - In the light industry and agricultural products markets, various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, seasonality, and policies, and most are expected to oscillate [6][8] - In the polyester market, due to factors such as oil prices, raw material prices, and supply - demand, most products are in a state of waiting and watching [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, and it returns to fundamentals. In the short - term, it is supported by high steel mill profitability and new restocking demand, but port inventory is high. In the medium - to - long - term, domestic demand is weak, so a bearish view is taken [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - demand of coking coal is loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Coke supply is increasing, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, demand is falling back, and inventory may increase. Steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, inventory has increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is in the transition from peak to off - season, and the focus is on downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance varied, and funds flowed in and out of different sectors. With the phased results of Sino - US tariffs, long positions in stock index futures can be held [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation. Long positions can be held lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors affect its price. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and silver is also expected to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Oils and fats**: Supply is abundant, it is the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - holiday stocking has improved spot consumption. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales [6] - **Meal products**: The inventory of new US soybeans may be tighter, and domestic soybean supply is turning loose. Meal products are expected to rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather and logistics [6] - **Live pigs**: Supply is relatively tight, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides support. Prices are expected to oscillate [8] - **Rubber**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is recovering, inventory accumulation is slowing down, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8] Polyester Market - **PX**: Oil prices are weakly consolidating, PX load is oscillating downwards, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The possible acceleration of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil price rebounds, and it is in a state of supply - demand destocking, mainly affected by raw material prices [9] - **MEG**: The supply - demand is not bad, but the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the disk fluctuates widely [9] - **PR**: Oil price callback weakens cost support, and the market may adjust weakly and steadily [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and cost support is unstable. The market is expected to be weakly sorted [9]

【冠通研究】 上下游博弈，盘面区间运行 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开高走尾盘下行。5 月 20 日，中国央行宣布 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 同步下 调 10 个基点，释放出明确的稳增长信号。美联储高官表态年内更倾向只降息一次周末国 际信用评级机构穆迪决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，美国经济数据及信用 评级双下滑，市场避险惰绪再起，铜价承压。供给端，截止 5 月 19 日，现货粗炼费 (TC)-43.03 美元/千吨，现货精炼费(RC)-4.30 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费负值扩大有所放 缓，由于附产品的利润弥补，目前实质性减产尚未推进。目前对铜供应端的压力维持在 预期偏紧，实质供应尚未见明显缩减，废铜不受关税影响，将继续大量进入国内;库存 端，上期所铜库存去化转为累库，美铜依然继续大幅增加库存。需求端，下游需求边际 走弱，社库止跌回弹，终端动能减弱。截至 2025 年 3 月，电解铜表观消费 137.24 万 吨，相比上月涨跌+9.38 万吨，涨跌幅 7.34%。五月进入需求淡季阶段，预计表观消费量 减少。整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，基本面方 ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝期货将偏强宽幅震荡 铜、原 油期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3873 点，支撑位 3830 和 3816 点；IH2506 阻力位 2699 和 2727 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5663 和 5700 点，支撑位 5560 和 5544 点；IM2506 阻力位 6000 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term "high-level short allocation", long-term positive outlook for positive spreads [2] - Coking coal and coke: "Weak and volatile" [2] - Rebar and wire rod: "Volatile" [2] - Glass: "Volatile" [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 "Volatile", Shanghai 50 "Rebound", CSI 500 "Upward", CSI 1000 "Upward" [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2-year "Volatile", 5-year "Volatile", 10-year "Decline" [4] - Gold and silver: "High-level volatile" [4] - Pulp: "Weak and volatile" [5] - Logs: "Bottom volatile" [5] - Oils and fats: "Volatile" [5] - Meal products: "Volatile and bearish" [5] - Live pigs: "Volatile" [7] - Rubber: "Strong and volatile" [7] - PX: "Wait-and-see" [7] - PTA: "Wait-and-see" [8] - MEG: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PR: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PF: "Narrow-range consolidation" [8] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. Coal and coke markets are mainly following the trend of finished products. Steel prices are expected to remain low and volatile in the short term. Glass prices lack upward momentum. Stock index futures are recommended for long positions, and treasury bonds are also recommended for long positions. Precious metals are expected to maintain high-level volatility. Pulp prices are expected to be weak. Log prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate. Oils and fats and meal products markets are volatile. Live pig prices are expected to remain stable. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are recommended for a wait-and-see approach [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Supply is expected to increase with the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments and the release of some mine capacities. Demand is the key factor. Although the market's expectation for steel demand has improved, the actual demand is seasonally weak. High iron ore port inventories put pressure on prices. The weakening of trade conflicts may bring opportunities for far-month short selling [2] Coal and Coke - The supply and demand of coking coal remain loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke prices have been lowered. Coke supply continues to increase, and inventories are rising overall [2] Rebar and Wire Rod - The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, and demand is expected to decline. The total inventory is still in the process of being depleted, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the inventory depletion. Steel prices are under short-term pressure [2] Glass - Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. Spot prices have declined slightly, and profits have been squeezed. Inventories have increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Stock Index Futures/Options - The previous trading day's performance of major stock indices varied. Sector funds flowed in and out differently. Macroeconomic data showed mixed results. With the phased results of Sino-US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, market risk aversion has eased, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and market interest rates have decreased, providing support for Treasury bond prices. Long positions in Treasury bonds are recommended [4] Precious Metals - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Gold's currency, financial, and hedging attributes are affected by various factors. Short-term factors such as trade tensions and Fed policies may cause fluctuations, but gold prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Pulp - Spot market prices have shown a differentiated trend, and external market prices have declined. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills' inventories are increasing. Demand has entered the off-season, and pulp prices are expected to be weak [5] Logs - Downstream demand has entered the off-season, and the supply of logs is expected to decrease. Current inventories are being depleted, and prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate [5] Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is in the seasonal growth period, and inventories have increased significantly. The supply of three major oils and fats is abundant, while consumption is in the off-season. Prices are expected to be volatile [5] Meal Products - Sino-US trade relations have eased, but the weather in the US soybean-growing areas is a key factor. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly, and the supply of meal products is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [5] Live Pigs - The average slaughter weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and demand from slaughtering enterprises has remained stable. Post-festival consumption demand has decreased, but the demand for secondary fattening provides support. Prices are expected to remain stable [7] Rubber - Domestic rubber production is relatively stable, while raw material prices in Thailand have continued to rise. Demand from sample tire enterprises has recovered, and inventories are expected to decrease slightly. Market sentiment is positive, but supply and demand fundamentals still put pressure on prices. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile [7] PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks may affect oil prices. The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG have fluctuated, and inventories have changed. The polyester market is affected by raw material prices and production reduction plans. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for these products [7][8]