Market Overview - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.12% to $4333.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 3.42% to $64.13 per ounce [3][14] - As of November 25, speculators increased net long positions in COMEX gold futures by 11,291 contracts to 107,976 contracts, while net long positions in COMEX silver futures decreased by 806 contracts to 20,127 contracts [3][14] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.6% [3][14] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 43.5%, with a 9.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [3][14] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump stated that discussions with European leaders regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict are progressing well, indicating a closer approach to a peace agreement [4][15] - European leaders, including those from Germany, France, and the UK, issued a joint statement committing to provide security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing that any territorial concessions must be accompanied by strong security measures [6][16] Military and Security Support for Ukraine - The joint statement highlighted the need for Ukraine to maintain an armed force of approximately 800,000 personnel to deter conflict, and proposed the formation of a multinational force led by Europe [6][16] - The security guarantees will include a U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism to provide early warnings of future attacks [6][16] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market has shown strong performance, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium futures increasing by 4.73% [8][18] - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8][18] Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are expected to reflect the current economic situation, with forecasts of 40,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate stable at 4.4% [10][19] - The overall and core CPI is projected to remain at 3%, above the Federal Reserve's target level, which could influence future rate cut expectations [10][19] Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts predict that the long-term trend for precious metals remains upward, supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [21][22] - The demand for platinum and palladium is bolstered by supply constraints and rising investor interest, particularly in light of the recent increases in silver prices [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The spot silver price has reached a new high, surpassing $60 per ounce for the first time, hitting a peak of $61.02 per ounce as of December 10, 9 AM Beijing time [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the strong upward movement in silver prices [1] - The increase in silver prices reflects a strengthening of the precious metal's safe-haven attributes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The spot silver price has reached a new high of $61.02 per ounce, marking the first time it has surpassed the $60 per ounce threshold, driven by increased market risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - The rise in silver prices reflects the strengthening of precious metals' safe-haven attributes [1] - Analysts from Dongxing Futures attribute the price surge to heightened market risk aversion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened lower on December 3, with all three major indices declining due to rising risk aversion and negative news from Microsoft regarding its AI software sales quotas [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05% - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.21% - The Nasdaq index dropped by 0.45% [1] Company Impact - Microsoft reported a reduction in sales quotas for its AI software, leading to a 2.77% decline in its stock price - This decline in Microsoft's stock negatively affected the performance of technology stocks and the overall market [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have shown an upward trend over the past seven trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 4%, indicating a strong market overall [1] - The structural weakening of the US dollar is a key factor supporting gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve rising to 89.4%, reducing the relative attractiveness of dollar assets [2] - The US dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering around 99.4, below the important psychological level of 100, which lowers the cost of purchasing gold for holders of other currencies, stimulating short-term demand in the international market [2] Group 2 - Changes in fund flows are reflected in the holdings data of gold ETFs, with major global gold ETFs recording net inflows over the past three weeks, indicating a moderate recovery in institutional investors' interest in gold [5] - The current market risk appetite supports gold, as it remains a key safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainties, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index at 25, indicating "extreme fear" [8] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have maintained a clear upward channel over the past three months, with indicators like the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, suggesting dominant buying power [9]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1050.01 tons of gold as of December 1, 2025, reflecting an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous trading day, driven by rising market risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of December 1, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 1050.01 tons of gold, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous day [5]. - The increase in gold holdings coincides with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a six-week high of $4263.94 per ounce during the day [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global stock markets faced pressure, with heightened risk aversion at the start of December, particularly affecting the Japanese stock market due to hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's governor [5]. - The market has priced in an approximately 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by recent dovish statements from several policymakers and weak U.S. economic data [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.2, below the expected 49 and indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for nine consecutive months [6]. - The market anticipates a more accommodative monetary policy path, especially following comments from former President Trump regarding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold is expected to rise further, with the daily chart showing bullish momentum signals and the RSI indicating room for upward movement before entering overbought territory [6]. - The first resistance level is at the December 1 high of $4264, with a significant challenge at the historical peak of $4380 from October 17 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a significant upward trend, primarily driven by market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 1, spot gold rose by 0.38% to $4239.22 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4256.55 per ounce [1] - The volatility in market risk sentiment is a key factor influencing gold prices, with the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut being a dominant driver [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The unresolved situation in Ukraine continues to sustain market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Central Bank Behavior - Global central bank gold purchases are crucial to monitor, especially in December, which is a key settlement period; such purchases are seen as effective means to stabilize foreign exchange and financial markets, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - While some investment banks hold an optimistic outlook on future gold price increases, individual investors are advised to remain cautious, focusing on the resilience and sustainability of price levels above $4200 per ounce, with potential targets of $4300 and $4400 per ounce [1] - Investors are encouraged to maintain flexibility in their investment strategies, with small amounts of capital suggesting options like paper gold and bank-stored gold for asset allocation [1]

Core Insights - Cryptocurrency prices experienced a significant decline on Monday, reigniting a broad sell-off that seemed to have stabilized [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin dropped by 4.6% during early Asian trading, reaching $86,967.04, and remains below $88,000 [3] - Ethereum fell by 6.3% to $2,832.12, currently trading below $2,900 [3] - The sell-off began in early October, resulting in approximately $19 billion in leveraged bets being wiped out [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Following a period of selling pressure, Bitcoin had recently recovered, reaching over $90,000 before the latest decline [3] - Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading at FalconX Asia Pacific, noted that the market is entering December with a risk-averse sentiment [3] - Concerns are raised regarding low inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a lack of buyers stepping in at lower prices, with $80,000 identified as the next key support level for Bitcoin [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment is weak, LME inventory is gradually recovering, and the domestic demand side is in the off - season. Zinc prices are under pressure and may remain weakly consolidated in the short term. Considering the continuous decline of TC, the support from the raw material end is strong, and there is a certain production cut expectation for smelters in the future. It is expected that the downside space of zinc prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. Previous short positions can consider step - by - step stop - profit, and wait for opportunities to participate in long positions after the callback [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.22% to 22,370 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 0.13% to 22,395 yuan/ton; London zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 0.75% to 2,992 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 TC Continues to Decline, Pay Attention to Ingot - End Start - up 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 21, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 274,200 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in US dollars before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average) [30][32]. - As of November 20, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,288 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [39]. - Domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. On November 21, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [40][43]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated and declined, and TC decreased. The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 20, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,428 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of raw material stockpiling and the continuous decline of processing fees, it is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [44][49]. - The import profit window of refined zinc was closed. As of November 21, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,164.59 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [50][54]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - up Declines 3.3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 57.17%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and the black prices were always low, so the downstream's willingness to stock up was low. Some galvanizing enterprises reduced their start - up to avoid excessive finished product inventory [60][62]. - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices declined, and galvanizing enterprises picked up goods at the spot price more frequently, resulting in an obvious accumulation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises also increased. Due to poor demand and general downstream purchases, the finished product inventory accumulated [63][65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Slight Fluctuation in Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - up 3.4.1 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.22% to 23,115 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy dropped by 0.21% to 23,665 yuan/ton [71][73]. - The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.72 percentage points to 51.02%. The resumption of production of some enterprises during the week drove a slight increase in start - up. However, the terminal market was generally dull, and it is expected that the start - up may decline in the future [74][76]. - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led alloy factories to replenish inventory at low prices, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, resulting in a slight reduction of finished product inventory [77][79]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Slight Increase in Zinc Oxide Start - up 3.5.1 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained flat compared with the previous period. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton [85]. - The start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.94 percentage points to 57.25%. The increase in production of some enterprises drove an increase in start - up. However, from the current demand side, the demand for rubber - grade and electronic - grade products slowed down, and it is expected that the start - up will be difficult to increase significantly in the future [86][88]. - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased. Some raw material prices were still high, and enterprises maintained just - in - time purchases, resulting in a slight fluctuation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises slightly decreased. The accelerated delivery rhythm of some terminal customers drove the reduction of finished product inventory, but there are still certain risks on the demand side in the future [89][91]. 3.6 Purchase at Low Prices, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory 3.6.1 Inventory - As of November 20, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 144,500 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decline in zinc ingot social inventory. As of November 20, the inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous period [97][99]. - As of November 21, the SHFE inventory was 100,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 47,300 tons, and the inventory continued to increase [100][102]. 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in September 2025, the production was 600,000 tons, the import volume was 22,700 tons, the export volume was 2,500 tons, the apparent consumption was 620,000 tons, the actual consumption was 623,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was - 2,000 tons [108].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Nvidia's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the sentiment of the technology sector and causing today's stock indices to open higher. However, due to strong profit - taking intentions and unresolved Sino - Japanese tensions, the indices weakened after the opening. The market's risk - aversion sentiment was strong, and there was a style shift between large - and small - cap stocks. Defensive large - cap indices were relatively more resilient [5]. - The September non - farm payroll report released tonight is crucial for the Fed's December interest - rate decision. If the employment data improves, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will cool down, and the stock indices are expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indices remaining dominant. If the data shows an increased risk of employment decline, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will rise, strengthening the support for A - shares, and the stock indices may stop falling and rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices opened higher and closed lower. Large - cap indices were relatively more resilient, with the CSI 300 index closing down 0.51%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 17.20 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM declined with reduced volume, while other varieties declined with increased volume [3]. Important News - Nvidia's Q3 total revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance mid - point is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year. Data center revenue reached a record high, and the stock price rose by up to 6% after the market [4]. - The Fed meeting minutes revealed significant differences. Many people think it is not suitable to cut interest rates in December, and some are worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Go long on IH and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of - 0.69%, - 0.49%, - 0.84%, and - 0.48% respectively. The trading volume of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased [6]. Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.708189 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.20 billion yuan from the previous day [7].