热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，截至2026年1月31日，印度2025/26榨季糖产量达到1950.3万吨，较去年同期的1647.9万吨增 加302.4万吨，增幅18.35%。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为5260~5340元/吨，云南制糖集团 报价5120~ 5190元/吨，整体下调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5580~5800元/吨，个别下调10元/ 吨。原糖方面，近期震荡加剧 ，供应充足仍施压市场，但昨日随着大宗商品反弹期价重收失地。预计 未来仍将受到周边市场的波及。国内方面，春节假期临近，市场消息平淡，仍是区间行情，关注1月产 销数据及大宗商品整体情绪的影响。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 棉花： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉下跌0.59%，报收62.3美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨0.07%，报收14650元/吨，主力合 约持仓环比下降16256手至71.79万 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 4 日星期周三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 | 月 3 日，贵金属企稳，大宗商品整体获得支撑，植物油板块止跌回稳定，棕榈油 和菜籽油抗跌，豆油跌幅收窄。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8086 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.07%，日减仓 | | | | | 31478 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8030 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.02%，日增 | | | | | 仓 4275 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9094 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.89%，日减 | | | | | 仓 35 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 9040 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.92%，日减仓 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced significant declines, with silver and gold prices dropping sharply, leading to over thirty stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] - Silver prices fell over 11% to below $75 per ounce, while gold saw a maximum drop of approximately 5.74%, currently reported at 4608 yuan per ounce [1] - The previous surge in precious metals was driven by factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and speculative trading, with gold and silver reaching historical highs before the sudden reversal [1] Group 2 - The CME raised margin requirements for precious metal futures, increasing gold futures margin from 6% to 8% and silver futures margin from 11% to 15% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange adjusted the margin level for silver deferred contracts from 20% to 26% and increased the price fluctuation limit from 19% to 25% [2] Group 3 - Market institutions have mixed views on the future of precious metals following the historic drop [3] - Citigroup warned that half of the current risk premium for gold may disappear by late 2026, particularly if the political independence of the Federal Reserve is strengthened, which could negatively impact gold's mid-term outlook [4] - However, several institutions maintain bullish forecasts, with CITIC Securities predicting gold could reach $6000 per ounce and UBS forecasting gold to hit $6200 in the first three quarters of this year [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]

Group 1 - The commodity concept LOF experienced a significant decline across the board on February 2, with multiple funds hitting the limit down [1] - Specific funds such as Guotou Resources LOF, Resource LOF, and Southern Crude Oil LOF all faced limit down situations, indicating a severe downturn in the sector [1] - Guotai Commodity LOF dropped over 8%, while both Harvest Crude Oil LOF and Huabao Oil and Gas LOF fell more than 7%, reflecting a broader negative trend in commodity-related investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing adjustments, with major indices showing declines, but there are expectations for stabilization and potential upward trends in the near future [20][22][30]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The current round of ETF redemption is believed to be coming to an end, providing a repair window for heavyweight stocks, with a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks occurring [21]. - A short-term adjustment in the A-share market is anticipated, but the overall adjustment space is limited, with expectations for stabilization before the Spring Festival and a new upward trend afterward [22]. - The spring market is expected to continue, with a potential for a new upward phase following a period of consolidation [23][30]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Strategies - Focus on sectors with competitive advantages in global pricing power, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and new energy, while being cautious of speculative precious metals [21]. - The food and beverage and real estate sectors are viewed as short-term opportunities rather than long-term investment options [24]. - Investment strategies should consider a balanced approach between growth and value sectors, with particular attention to technology and cyclical stocks [31][32]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Impact - February is traditionally a strong month for the A-share market, with a 76% probability of index increases based on historical data [28]. - The market is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth, particularly as local government meetings approach [34]. - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain loose, supporting continued inflows into the stock market [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent trend of strict purchase limits on cross-border LOF funds, particularly those related to commodities like gold and oil, due to market volatility and increased speculative investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Purchase Limits - Several funds, including the Jiashi Gold LOF and Jiashi Oil LOF, have announced significant purchase limits, with some funds capping daily investments to as low as 2 yuan [3]. - The imposition of these limits is a response to the influx of speculative capital during market downturns, which can lead to cash being idled if it exceeds the fund's investment capacity [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Analysis - On January 30, the market saw a sharp decline in commodity-related stocks, particularly in the precious metals sector, with declines of 8% to 9% observed in various ETFs [5]. - The Jiashi Gold LOF experienced a 7.5% drop on the same day, although it still recorded a year-to-date increase of 15.75% [6]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Market Movements - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to several factors, including anticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and increased margin requirements for trading in precious metals [7]. - The market is also reacting to high leverage positions being liquidated, which has contributed to the overall downturn in the precious metals sector [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term corrections, some institutions remain optimistic about the long-term potential of gold, citing historical data that suggests rebounds typically follow significant short-term declines [9]. - The article notes that geopolitical tensions and structural supply-demand gaps are expected to support the prices of precious metals in the medium to long term [10].

交通银行"沃德财富万里行"浙江站活动举办 ◎记者 聂林浩 近日，交通银行浙江省分行携手长信基金、汇丰晋信基金、施罗德基金成功举办"沃野万理·共见未来 ——沃德财富万里行"全国巡回路演浙江站活动。 以专业与陪伴护航财富未来 交通银行浙江省分行党委委员、副行长周建明致辞表示，在房地产转型与低利率常态化的背景下，股票 等权益资产配置已成为居民增加财产性收入的重要渠道。当前中国经济稳中有进，资本市场改革为权益 投资注入新动能，高水平对外开放也为全球资产配置提供了丰富机遇。 "交通银行自2006年推出沃德财富品牌以来，始终坚持以客户为中心。近年来，依托交银集团国际化、 综合化优势，积极整合全球研究资源，助力投资者捕捉境内外优质企业的成长红利。"周建明介绍，本 次活动邀请了多家深耕境内外市场的合作伙伴，共同探讨多元化资产配置策略。 他表示，杭州作为科技创新、数字经济与先进制造业的高地，活跃的产业生态为财富管理注入了新活 力。当前浙江省上市公司数量位居全国第二，孕育了众多优秀企业。交通银行浙江省分行扎根于此，积 极推动财富金融与科技金融的融合，积累了丰富的财富管理经验。本次活动正是服务区域高质量发展、 助力共同富裕示范区建 ...

白银价格跌破100美元/盎司，此前一轮迅猛涨势戛然而止。整个1月期间，白银已连续刷新多项历史纪 录。银价此前持续攀升已使技术指标呈现超买状态。现货黄金同样下跌，跌破5000美元关口。一份有关 特朗普政府准备提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席的报告则提振了美元。美元走强使得以美元计价的大宗 商品对许多全球买家而言吸引力下降。 来源：滚动播报 ...