Group 1 - The Chinese government proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization to promote multilateralism and address the digital divide [2] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference emphasized the need for accelerated digital infrastructure development, including clean power and AI standards [3] - Major foreign financial institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China following the release of Q2 economic data, with increases ranging from 0.3% to 0.6% [4] Group 2 - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society marks the creation of an official think tank for the capital market, with significant figures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission involved [5] - The stablecoin sector in Hong Kong is gaining attention, with analysts suggesting that clearer regulatory frameworks will drive growth and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [5] - A well-known private equity firm,淡水泉投资, is optimistic about structural investment opportunities in high-quality Chinese assets and the globalization of advantageous industries [5] Group 3 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased advancements in smart connected vehicles and AI technologies from companies like Alibaba and Baidu [6] - A new action plan for autonomous driving in Shanghai aims for significant milestones by 2027, including L4-level passenger transport and extensive road coverage [6] - The National Cyberspace Administration reported that 474 large models have completed registration, with over 30 billion registered users for these applications [6] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is prepared to intervene in the currency market if the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate with the US dollar falls to 7.85 [8] - 华熙生物 addressed false information circulating on social media regarding the company, clarifying the background of the individual responsible for the misinformation [9] - 京东健康 is upgrading its AI medical model system to enhance the coverage of its internet hospital services [9] Group 5 - As of June 30, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached a record high of 34.39 trillion yuan, with bond funds leading the growth [14] - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures prices has prompted exchanges to implement risk control measures to manage trading activity [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/24 2025/7/24 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 66.03 69.18 | 65.25 68.51 | 1.20% 0.98% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/23 | 美元/吨 | 567.38 | 566.38 | 0.18% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/23 | | 美元/吨 | 705.50 | 715.50 | -1.40% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/24 | 美元/吨 | 856.00 | 841.67 | 1.70% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/7/24 | 元/吨 | 4850.00 | 4784.00 | ...

【行业新闻】 业 服 务 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,875 | 12,100 | -225 3695 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 125,082 | 121,387 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 48,591 | 49,351 | -760 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 750,681 | 730,033 | 20647 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 125 | -100 | 225 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | | 35 | 15 | 20 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,700 | 11,800 | -100 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,750 | 11,800 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, with demand hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. - For glass, it is advisable to temporarily wait and see as the price has encountered short - term platform resistance and the subsequent breakthrough is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1338 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1211 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1074637 lots, down 177945 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1044115 lots, down 182849 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 225673 lots, up 77294 lots; glass top 20 net open interest: - 248449 lots, up 45449 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 236 tons, up 236 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 93 yuan, down 12 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: - 113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1195 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 188.42 million tons, down 2.14 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6493.9 million heavy boxes, down 216.3 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration to promote the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice aims to regulate coal mining enterprises' production behavior. On July 23, it was confirmed to be true [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, with production increasing. Profits have slightly recovered but are still negative, and production is expected to decline. Natural alkali method will gradually become the mainstream. Glass production line cold - repaired 1, with overall production unchanged. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory is increasing due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: Supply - side production remains at the bottom, with signs of rigid - demand production. Industry profits have improved, and the resumption of production may increase. Demand - side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders are declining, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

2025 年 07 月 23 日 尿素：现货企稳，上方空间收窄 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,817 | 1,812 | 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,806 | 1,807 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 314,653 | 329,271 | -14618 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 191,764 | 195,949 | -4185 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,136,221 | 1,189,793 | -53572 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 2 3 | 1 8 | 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -97 | -92 | - 5 | | | | 东光 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/22 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/21 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 532. 0 | 512. 3 | -19.70 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情上涨,反内卷预期利好市场,大宗化工 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 877.9 | 1057. 1 | 179.16 | 品行情普涨,PTA行情上涨。PTA供应充足,现货基差 走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2271 | 1. 2839 | 0. 0569 | | | | CFR中国PX | 839 | 842 | 3 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 266 | 3 | | | | PTA主力期价( ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 22 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 宏观氛围高涨推动大宗商品普涨，21 日沪镍跟随走强，主力 2509 收盘上涨 1.91%报 122550 元/吨，指数总持仓增加 7499 至 164521 手。市场主要受到上周五 盘后工信部消息刺激，钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出 台，并将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，相关产能过剩品种 受到提振大幅上涨。不过对镍产业链而言，过剩格局并未扭转，价格压力依然存 在。随着印尼 RKAB 补充配额 ...

Report Information - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract continued to be strong The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 621,314 lots and an open interest of 172,057 lots, a net increase of 16,518 lots [4] - Despite signs of resistance such as exchange limits and a sharp decline in trading volume last week, policy support since last Friday continued to stimulate strong expectations in the commodity market The commodity index filled the gap in early April and strengthened collectively The main polycrystalline silicon contract opened higher and then fluctuated strongly, highlighting the game between policy and capital The spot price continued to show a large range difference, and the transaction range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was between 40,000 and 49,000 yuan, mainly because each enterprise quoted comprehensively based on its own full cost The supply-demand fundamentals have not improved and are not the main driving logic at present The futures price fluctuated strongly with reference to the spot price range as market sentiment fermented under policy stimulus [4] Market News - On July 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4% The transaction price range of N-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5] - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Xie Shaofeng, the Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced the industrial and information technology development in the first half of 2025 Work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将 to be introduced The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust their structures, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/21 周五工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，"反内卷"及供给侧优化预期驱 动大宗商品整体偏强运行。尿素短期或跟随大宗商品偏强运行。中期而言，需求端有贸易商在陆续进行出口 提货，库存短期或难以大幅累库。工厂待发订单及库存压力不大，现货报价小幅探涨，对尿素价格形成支 撑，尤其是伴随出口通道的逐步放开，或有阶段性的反弹。但农业需求逐渐减弱，下半年基本面继续承压。 综上，尿素处在下有支撑上有压制的格局下，09合约预计震荡偏强。 【利多解读 】 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15 ...