Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures of the United States are oscillating and rising. After the USDA report on September 9th slightly lowered the yield per unit of US soybeans, the futures are oscillating above the 1000-point mark, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and falling back. Supported by recent good demand and technical oscillatory consolidation, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures. In the short term, it may enter an oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100 [8]. - Domestic soybeans are oscillating in a narrow range, driven by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures. In the short term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3900 - 4000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US futures are oscillating and rising under the influence of relatively positive data from the USDA report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and China - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data from the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price expectation of soybean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further guidance on the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in September; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 17.69% - 23.05% [32]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was between 18.41% - 23.79% [33]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific information about the report industry investment rating provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The market is focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the game of Sino - US trade tariffs. The US soybean production outlook and Sino - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. The short - term price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short - term trend of domestic soybeans is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The domestic soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints There is no specific content for daily hints in the provided text. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. Affected by the relatively bullish data of the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly bullish [12]. - The reduction of domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is short - term bullish and oscillating, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas; bearish factors include high arrival volume of imported soybeans in September and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand; bearish factors are the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2960, with a basis of - 106, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 289, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions are decreasing, but the capital is flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions are increasing, but the capital is flowing out [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the dynamics of the commodities market, particularly focusing on industrial metals and their pricing attributes influenced by both China and the United States [1][2][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Commodity Pricing Attributes**: Commodities are categorized into three types: - Financially driven gold - Physically driven base metals like steel - Copper, which has both attributes [5][2]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy**: Gold prices are primarily influenced by U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, while base metals are driven by supply and demand dynamics [5][2]. 3. **China's Role in Industrial Metals**: China dominates the demand for industrial metals, accounting for approximately half of global consumption, which significantly influences pricing [3][5]. 4. **U.S. Trade Deficit Challenges**: The U.S. faces a persistent trade deficit, which could be addressed by increasing total supply or reducing total demand, both of which are challenging [7][14]. 5. **Reindustrialization Difficulties in the U.S.**: The U.S. manufacturing sector has been declining, with its share of the economy dropping from nearly 30% in 1965 to about 10.2% in 2020, indicating significant challenges in reindustrialization [13][14]. 6. **China's Industrialization Stage**: China is in a mature industrialization phase, similar to Japan in 1976 and the U.S. in 1938, focusing on upgrading its manufacturing capabilities and shifting towards high-end exports [9][10]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics**: The U.S.-China trade friction has led to a redistribution of global trade flows without altering overall supply and demand [6][7]. 8. **Debt Pressure Comparison**: There is a stark contrast in debt pressures between China and the U.S., with China experiencing lower debt pressure due to its industrial maturity, while the U.S. faces significant fiscal sustainability issues [15][21]. 9. **Fiscal Policy Implications**: The U.S. fiscal deficit is closely tied to its trade deficit, with high spending leading to increased imports. The fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to be around $1.36 trillion [14][21]. 10. **Economic Transition in China**: China is transitioning from an investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven one, with significant implications for its economic structure and growth [40][41]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Industrialization**: The records draw parallels between current industrialization trends and historical examples from East Asia, emphasizing that merely absorbing low-end industries does not equate to full industrialization [12][9]. 2. **Service Sector Development**: The need for China to develop its service sector is highlighted as a crucial step in enhancing economic stability and consumer spending [3][34]. 3. **Copper Market Dynamics**: The copper market is characterized by limited new supply due to reduced capital expenditures by mining companies, leading to a significant supply-demand gap [46]. 4. **Long-term Economic Trends**: The records suggest that the current economic environment is influenced by long-term cycles, such as the Kondratiev wave, indicating that the global economy is still in a downturn phase [23][49]. 5. **Potential for AI and Technology**: While AI has the potential to drive economic recovery, its impact will depend on its application and the pace of technological diffusion [48]. 6. **Fiscal Tightening Effects**: The tightening of fiscal policies in China has led to reduced government spending, impacting various sectors and necessitating a careful balance to avoid stifling growth [38][39]. 7. **Consumer Behavior Insights**: Despite perceptions of weak consumer spending in China, household savings have significantly increased, indicating a potential for future consumption growth if income distribution issues are addressed [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the commodities market and the broader economic landscape.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Commodities remain in a bearish trend, with the market under pressure and fluctuating at low levels. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - loss [4]. - In the context of international instability, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions for arbitrage strategies. For long - term strategies, it is recommended to set medium - to - high profit - taking levels, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period [2]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [2]. Manufacturing and Service PMIs - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest since May 2024. The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The US August Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Trade - related Information - The extension of Sino - US tariffs continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [4]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce announced an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary determined unified national tax rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [5]. Futures Contract Information - On August 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1285.0, down 3.31%, with a trading volume of 25,300 lots and an open interest of 54,200 lots, an increase of 523 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Event - On August 27, the Houthi armed forces announced that their missile forces carried out a military strike on targets in Israel, using a "Palestine - 2" hypersonic ballistic missile to strike Ben - Gurion International Airport south of Tel Aviv, causing the airport to suspend operations [5].

Group 1: Development Opportunities in Guangdong Futures Market - The Guangdong futures market is entering a new phase of high-quality development, with various initiatives aimed at creating a complete futures industry chain and establishing a risk management center [1] - The release of the "30 Measures for Financial Support in Nansha" has significantly encouraged the futures market in Nansha and the entire Guangdong region [1] - Nansha is positioned as a key area for cooperation between Hong Kong and the mainland, leveraging Hong Kong's institutional advantages and Nansha's resource strengths to cultivate competitive enterprises [1][4] Group 2: Financial Opening and Cross-Border Cooperation - Nansha plays a crucial role in the dual circulation development strategy, facilitating cross-border and offshore business services, and attracting Hong Kong and Macau enterprises [4][6] - The area is expected to become a vital platform for mainland manufacturing companies to expand internationally, enhancing its significance as a free trade cooperation pilot zone [4][5] - The integration of Hong Kong's financial systems into Nansha is seen as a significant step towards enhancing the region's international competitiveness [8][10] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Recommendations - High operational costs in Hong Kong pose challenges for Hong Kong enterprises looking to establish branches in Nansha, leading to concerns about losing the global economic freedom enjoyed in Hong Kong [6] - The past H-share model is suggested as a reference for Nansha, allowing Hong Kong-registered companies to maintain their international competitiveness while benefiting from Nansha's resources [7] - There is a need for innovative institutional breakthroughs to effectively combine the advantages of Hong Kong and Nansha, avoiding the "either-or" dilemma for businesses in the Greater Bay Area [6][11] Group 4: Commodity Market Integration - The current fragmentation in the mainland's bulk commodity market limits its influence in international pricing, necessitating a cohesive approach to integrate domestic demand [9] - Nansha's institutional framework allows for deeper cooperation with Hong Kong, which is essential for building a powerful and influential presence in the international commodity market [9][10] - The establishment of a "super special zone" is proposed to enhance the flow of people, goods, and capital between Hong Kong and the mainland, fostering a more integrated economic environment [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Not provided. - **Related Information**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - **Related Information**: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - **Important Information**: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - **Important Information**: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - **Important Information**: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].

Group 1 - Eight state-owned listed companies in Hunan Province have disclosed their 2025 semi-annual performance forecasts or formal reports, including Hunan Gold, Hunan Silver, Xinwufeng, and Jinjian Rice Industry [2] - Hunan Gold expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 613 million to 701 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a significant increase of 40% to 60% compared to 438 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [2] - Hunan Silver anticipates a net profit of 60 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.23% to 46.25%, attributed to improved management and rising prices of precious metals [3] Group 2 - Two state-owned listed companies are expected to achieve a turnaround from loss to profit in the first half of 2025 [4] - Xiangdian Co. has accelerated its strategic layout in new industries, successfully launching Hunan's first pure electric transport ship and achieving significant breakthroughs in core technologies [5] - Xiangdian Co. plans to acquire a 12.5% stake in Tongda Electromagnetic Energy from its controlling shareholder for 208 million yuan, which is expected to generate market anticipation [5]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices fell to $65.76 and Brent to $68.28, both down over 2% due to OPEC+ increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day, completing its reduction exit plan a year early, leading to a historical oversupply of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as potential U.S. tariffs on Russian oil purchased by India, are seen as ineffective in significantly impacting oil supply, with analysts skeptical about the actual enforcement of sanctions [3] - The oil price is expected to stabilize between $65-$70 in Q3, with a potential drop to $55 in Q4 due to cumulative effects of OPEC production increases and seasonal demand decline [3] Group 2: Copper Market Surge - LME copper prices increased by 0.6% following a tariff exemption from Trump, leading to a surge in inventory in New York by 400,000 tons, while Asian stocks dwindled to a 10-day warning level [4] - A mining accident in Chile has eliminated 25% of a major company's production capacity, contributing to a global copper inventory drop to 350,000 tons, creating a potential short squeeze in the market [4] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to electric vehicles and renewable energy, with Goldman Sachs predicting copper prices to exceed $10,050 per ton by August and a supply gap of 3 million tons by 2030 [4] Group 3: Gold Price Stability - Spot gold prices rose by 0.4%, with futures reaching $3,426, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to disappointing U.S. employment data [5] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 94%, which typically drives investment towards safe-haven assets like gold [5] - The Federal Reserve's internal changes and signals of accelerated rate cuts have reinforced bullish sentiment for gold, with technical support seen at $3,400-$3,450 [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, a strategy is to target upstream oil service companies and refining leaders if prices hit $55 in Q4, capitalizing on equipment upgrades and margin expansion [6] - In copper, focus on resource companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are less volatile than pure futures trading [7] - For gold, a dollar-cost averaging strategy into gold ETFs and mining stocks is recommended, increasing positions by 3% on price dips before the Fed's rate cut [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data fell short of expectations, and stainless steel showed a weak and volatile trend. The nickel market also had a weak performance, with the nickel futures contract showing a decline and the stainless - steel futures contract also under pressure [1][4]. - In the nickel market, although the refined nickel spot had some support, the supply - surplus pattern remained. The stainless - steel market faced downward pressure with a decline in spot trading volume and cooling downstream purchasing sentiment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 121,050 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,818 lots, and the open interest was 97,451 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract 2509 was weak and volatile throughout the day, with a decrease in trading volume and a slight increase in open interest compared to the previous day. The short - term downward momentum was accumulating, and the 117,000 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [2]. - In the spot market, the prices of major brands of refined nickel decreased. The spot price provided support to the futures price, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel changing to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remaining at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans at - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,705 (- 54.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 208,692 ( + 600) tons [2]. Strategy - Given the cooling market sentiment and the supply - surplus pattern, the expected upper range was 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. For trading strategies, only single - side range trading was proposed, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2509 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,342 lots, and the open interest was 94,448 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract was weak and volatile, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day. The 13,100 yuan/ton level was considered a short - term resistance, and the 12,400 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [4]. - In the spot market, the prices in Foshan decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the trading volume declined. The nickel - iron market price also decreased, and it was expected to remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 250 - 450 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - Since the main stainless - steel contract formed a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton, it was waiting to break through the 120 - day moving - average resistance. The expected upper range was around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. The single - side trading strategy was neutral, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [6].