大消费板块逆市爆发，阳光乳业（001318）、东百集团（600693）等十余股涨停。消息面上，商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办公厅、金融监 管总局办公厅发布《关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度提振消费的通知》，针对深化商务和金融系统协作、加大消费重点领域金融支持、 扩大政金企对接合作三个方面，提出11项具体举措。 【导读】为何今天市场表现不佳 兄弟姐妹们啊，今天市场明显跳水，一起找找原因吧。 A股下跌 12月15日，A股震荡调整，深成指、创业板指均跌超1%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.55%，深成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌1.77%。 市场共2314个股上涨，65只个股涨停，2968只个股下跌。 | 880005 AND 237 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 日中 | 涨停 | 65 | | 涨幅 | > 7% | 104 | | 涨幅 | 5-7% | 37 | | 涨幅 | 3-5% | 208 | | 涨幅 | 0-3% | 1915 | | 跌幅 | 0-3% | 2475 | | 跌幅 | 3-5% | 355 | | 跌幅 | 5-7% | 88 | | 跌幅 | > 7% | 50 | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 美国 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 中性降息落地，技术性扩表重启 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 12 月 11 日，美联储议息会议宣布降息 25bp，联邦基金利率区间由 4%-3.75%降至 3.75%-3.5%。委员会判 断银行体系储备余额已降至充足水平（ ample levels ），将重启短期国债购买。 评论： 图1：12 月 FOMC 会议决议声明要点梳理 | 维度 | 2025. 12 | 2025. 10 | 2025.09 | 2 ...

来源：赵伟宏观探索 2025年中以来，美国再现"无就业增长"与"K型复苏"特征。2026年，美国经济能否走出"K型"特征，路径是"无就业"拖累增长，还是高增长带动充分就业？ 一、热点思考：两个美国："K型经济"的成因与出路 （一）美国经济的两个结构性失衡："无就业增长"与"K型经济" 2025年初以来，美国经济表现为"无就业增长"（jobless growth）。2025年初特朗普开始执政以来，美国新增非农就业人数开始下滑，2025年6-8月月均下 降至1.8万人低点，远低于历史非衰退区间的平均水平。但在AI资本开支的支撑下，美国GDP增速仍保持较高水平。 2025年中以来，美国经济再现"K型经济"（K-shaped economy）特征。它具体表现为消费、就业、工资和财富的"K型"分化，如：高收入人群的消费增速显 著高于低收入人群；高端消费好于大众消费；高收入和低收入人群的工资和财富的"剪刀差"不断扩大等。 （二）"K型经济"的成因：经济放缓、货币宽松、特朗普冲击与美股结构性牛市 美国的"K型经济"特征，短期看是周期性的现象，但长期看是结构性矛盾。基于收入与财富分配的结构性视角，可以认为"无就业"是"K型经 ...

Economic Overview - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited characteristics of "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped economy," with non-farm employment numbers declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][15] - The GDP growth rate remains robust, supported by AI capital expenditures, despite the lack of job growth[1][21] K-shaped Economy Characteristics - The K-shaped economy is marked by a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households[1][26] - For instance, the spending growth difference in air travel and furniture between high and low-income families reached 10.5 and 10.2 percentage points, respectively, as of November 1[1][27] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including the late-cycle economic phase, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs[2][45] - Since the 1980s, the growth of real labor income has lagged behind productivity growth, indicating a long-term trend of increasing income and wealth inequality[2][66] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has transitioned from a tight supply to a surplus, with the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) dropping from a peak of 1.46 in January 2022 to 0.25 by August 2025, indicating a loosening labor market[2][51] - The unemployment rate for marginalized groups, such as low-education and minority populations, has risen significantly, while the unemployment rate for white individuals remains low[2][46] Future Economic Outlook - In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to shift from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the K-shaped characteristics may persist due to a weak labor market balance[3][81] - The equilibrium employment number has decreased to 30,000-80,000 jobs per month, suggesting that maintaining a low unemployment rate will not necessarily lead to a return to high employment growth[3][83]

12月12日，港股午间收盘，恒生指数涨1.36%，恒生科技指数涨1.45%。盘面上，科技股普涨，有色金 属板块涨幅居前，恒生ETF（159920）现涨近2%，持仓股中，中国人寿、中通快递、中国宏桥、长江 基建集团等涨幅居前，翰森制药、药明生物、中升控股等逆势下挫。 展望后市，建银国际认为港股投资逻辑已由传统的估值修复转变为基于新质生产力和高质量发展的估值 重估，2026年估值和盈利均有温和扩张或改善的空间。市场对十五五开局中国经济增长动能的再评估； 12月中旬中央经济工作会议、一季度地方及中央两会；特朗普访华及中期选举前后中美关系的变化； AI资本开支进展及盈利状况等为主要催化剂和事件窗口。 港股核心宽基：恒生ETF（159920）； AI+平台经济：恒生科技指数ETF（513180）； 聚焦港股中国企业发展：恒生国企ETF（159850）。 值得关注的标的： ...

2025.12.12 本文字数：1650，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间周四（12月11日），美股走势分化，道琼斯工业平均指数与标普500指数在周期股带动下续创 新高，而科技板块则因甲骨文暴跌承压回调。在美联储分歧加大的降息落地后，投资者的交易方向从高 估值科技股明显转向更能受益于经济扩张的板块。 截至收盘，道指收涨646.26点，涨幅1.34%，报48704.01点，全日及盘中均刷新纪录。尽管英伟达走 弱，但维萨在银行上调评级后强劲上行，推动道指续写历史新高。标普500指数涨0.21%，收于6901.00 点，连续第二天刷新收盘纪录。纳斯达克综合指数跌0.26%，至23593.86点，科技板块跌幅居前。 降息驱动下，小盘股表现尤为亮眼，罗素2000指数收涨1.21%，报2590.61点，盘中亦创历史新高。小型 上市公司融资需求更依赖银行体系，对利率敏感度更高，降息往往能直接改善盈利预期。 甲骨文暴跌10.83%，科技股情绪受明显冲击。公司财报披露云业务收入不及预期，同时宣布未来将额 外投入150亿美元扩建数据中心，引发市场对"AI资本开支过热"的再度担忧。 大型科技股普遍回落，英伟达 ...

美联储周二启动为期两天的政策会议，尽管通胀率仍高于2%的目标，交易员普遍预计本周将降息25个 基点。 近期政策制定者释放出混合信号：一部分官员担忧通胀卷土重来，另一些人则更担忧劳动力市场的健康 状况。 而美国劳工部最新发布的报告并未帮助澄清前景——10月职位空缺小幅上升，但招聘仍然疲软；此外， 美国独立企业联合会(NFIB)的报告显示，企业计划在未来增加岗位的意愿有所提升。 美东时间周二，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，投资者预计即便美联储本周降息，其措辞仍可能偏鹰；同 时，美国最大银行摩根大通警告2026年支出将大幅增加，拖累银行股表现，限制大盘涨幅。 ClearBridge经济与市场策略主管Jeff Schulze表示："当前市场倾向认为，美联储会因职位空缺数据而略 显鹰派。" 根据芝商所的FedWatch观察工具，交易员对明日降息25个基点的押注仍高达87%。而Schulze认为，明 天降息之后暂停进一步行动的可能性更高。 Gabelli Funds组合经理Justin Bergner指出，美债收益率持续走高也令股市承压。"美联储决议前，美债收 益率反弹，股市涨势暂歇并不意外。"10年期美债收益率当日升至4. ...

Core Insights - Huachuang Securities highlights four major investment directions for the CSI A500 index: technology innovation, cyclical industries, overseas expansion, and the real estate chain [1] Group 1: Investment Directions - Technology innovation focuses on robust growth at the endpoint and the commercialization of ToB, with an emphasis on the need to digest valuations in the tech sector [1] - Cyclical industries are expected to benefit from price elasticity due to supply clearing, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, coal, construction materials, and machinery [1] - Overseas expansion aims to enhance global competitiveness, with a focus on electric new energy, machinery, communication equipment, and energy metals [1] - The real estate chain is anticipated to recover from mid-term bottoming out, with high potential in construction, building materials, home furnishings, appliances, and property management [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The technology manufacturing sector is seeing a steady increase in return on equity (ROE) amid the transition of old and new growth drivers [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which is leading in the number of accounts among similar products, being more than three times that of the second-ranked fund [1]

晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 编辑人 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 宏观及策略研究 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.05） 宏观及策略研究 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指微幅收涨 0.01%，创业板指收 涨 1.19%；风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 0.69%，中证 500 收涨 0.89%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内 成交 8.27 万亿元，日均成交额降至 1. ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on December 3, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,760.73 points, down 1.28% [2] - The total market turnover for the day was 1,644 million HKD, with southbound funds net buying 22.79 million HKD [2] Southbound Capital Activity - Southbound funds have net bought Alibaba for 15 consecutive days, accumulating a total of 286.49 million HKD [6] - On December 3, net purchases included Xiaomi Group at 8.7 million HKD, Alibaba at 4.27 million HKD, and Meituan at 2.97 million HKD, while Tencent Holdings saw a net sell-off of 7.32 million HKD [6] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks showed resilience, with notable gains including Huahong Semiconductor up 1.58% and Hard Egg Innovation up 1.02% [3] AI and GPU Market Insights - HSBC's investment management head for China and core Asia, Shen Yu, indicated that China's AI capital expenditure story is just beginning, with significant growth expected in domestic GPU and AI computing power over the next 12 to 18 months [5] - The domestic GPU replacement rate is projected to rise rapidly to over 50% in the coming years, potentially reaching 79%, which will drive the development of AI applications in China [5] Stock Index Changes - FTSE Russell announced the inclusion of companies such as CATL and China Hongqiao into the FTSE China 50 Index, effective December 22 [11] - The changes will also see the removal of companies like CITIC Securities and Great Wall Motors from the index [11] Regulatory Actions - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has instructed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to suspend trading of Daxian Education shares starting December 3, 2025, amid ongoing investigations [12][15]