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全球大放水开启!美联储再次降息!外资即将涌入,中国成大赢家?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 10:29
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a significant move in response to the U.S. economic challenges, creating ripples in the global financial markets, particularly benefiting China [3][11] - The internal debate within the Federal Reserve was intense, with a notable split among members regarding the necessity and timing of the rate cut, highlighting the pressures of liquidity constraints in the financial system [5][9] - The reduction in U.S. interest rates is expected to attract global capital towards emerging markets, with China emerging as a prime destination for investment due to its favorable economic conditions and potential for growth [11][13] Group 2 - The easing of monetary policy in the U.S. is likely to create a more favorable financing environment for Chinese companies, enabling them to expand production and invest in research and development [15][17] - The influx of foreign capital into China is already evident, with significant net inflows into the stock market and increased purchases of Chinese government bonds, indicating a growing confidence in the Chinese economy [11][13] - China's proactive approach in enhancing its economic fundamentals, such as promoting industrial upgrades and addressing technological challenges, positions it well to capitalize on the current favorable external conditions [19][21]
股指期货早报2025.12.11-20251211
Chuang Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 09:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and unexpected announcement of short - bond purchases have ignited the enthusiasm for long - liquidity in the overseas market, which is beneficial to risk assets [2]. - The domestic A - share market showed certain resilience yesterday, and in the short term, it will be repaired to some extent due to the overnight overseas influence. The market will maintain a volatile tone in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to layout for the spring market next year during the volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - The Fed's December interest rate decision: It will cut interest rates by 25 basis points with 3 dissenting votes, buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, and the median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut in each of the next two years. Powell said that the economy's development could be observed, no one expected an interest rate hike, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The bond - buying scale will remain high in the coming months [4]. - Trump criticized Powell after the Fed's interest rate cut, saying the cut was too small and could be doubled, and the rate should be the lowest globally [4]. - Trump stated that the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela, claiming the move was legal [5]. - Meta is fully shifting to a closed - source model and integrating third - party models such as Alibaba's Qwen during training [5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced that the special treasury bonds due in 2025 will be rolled over at the same amount without increasing the fiscal deficit [6]. - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2025 [7]. - Foreign media reported that China is considering restricting access to NVIDIA's H200 chips, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract to 15%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 16%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 17% from the close of trading on December 12, 2025 [8]. - The China Coast Guard vessel formation patrolled in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands on December 10 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index showed various closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change ratios, with different basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates. The contract delivery dates and remaining times also vary [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly net positions, and net position changes of different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and related changes of all contracts are also provided [12]. - **Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads of different indices, including the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, which reflect the historical data trends of these indicators [13][18][22] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and other data of various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are presented. The data of different industries are also included, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and other sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions is analyzed [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations of important indices and Shenwan industries, as well as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [39][42][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Charts**: There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which reflect the historical data trends of these liquidity - related indicators [52][53]
美联储决议后黄金期货买盘涌入破4220
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-11 03:07
Core Viewpoint - The market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the FOMC meeting, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations due to inflation concerns and expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Fed [3]. Market Performance - During the Asian trading session, February gold futures reported at $4229.1 per ounce, down by $7.1 [1]. - The overall market is calm as investors await the outcome of the FOMC meeting [1]. Gold Market Dynamics - Concerns over inflation have led to increased expectations for a hawkish approach from the FOMC and Powell, which has influenced market sentiment [3]. - Improved liquidity has reduced the cost of holding gold, contributing to a decline in the US dollar index and a decrease in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, both of which are favorable for gold prices [3]. Trading Activity - Following the FOMC decision announcement, there was a significant increase in trading volume for COMEX gold futures, with a surge in buying activity pushing gold prices above the $4220 resistance level [3]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to complete the backlog of position reports by the end of December, earlier than previously expected [3]. Technical Analysis - The next upward target for February gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of $4433.00 per ounce, which is the contract high and historical record [3]. - The immediate resistance levels are identified at $4251.70 and $4285.00 per ounce, while the first support levels are at $4197.80 and $4150.00 per ounce [3].
美联储如期降息,宽松略超预期
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:48
美联储如期降息 宽松略超预期 市场分析 贵金属日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布,降息25个基点,将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联 储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息,幅度均为25个基点。会议声明指出经济温和扩张,就业增长放 缓、失业率小幅上升,通胀仍处高位,委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足,自12月12 日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示通胀仍偏高,但非关税驱 动的核心通胀已显著改善,若无新关税,商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性区间上端,政策正 从限制性向中性过渡。为缓解市场压力,短期国债购买规模将在未来数月维持高位,预计2026年4月15日前完成; 变相释放流动性,或被视为宽松力度的加强。美国总统特朗普重申对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评。特朗普表示,降 息幅度太小,本可以更大一些;美联储降息幅度本可以加倍。 期货行情与成交量: 2025-12-10,沪金主力合约开于955.70元/克,收于956.40元/克,较前一交易日收盘变动0.51%。当日成交量 ...
2025年12月流动性月报:资金面内生稳定性回升,等待年末政策信号明朗-20251210
Huafu Securities· 2025-12-10 03:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stability of the fixed income market is recovering, with a focus on the liquidity situation and upcoming policy signals by the end of the year [1][2][3] - In October, the excess reserve ratio decreased by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%, primarily due to an increase in government deposits [1][19] - Government deposits rose by 625.8 billion yuan in October, exceeding the expected 378.1 billion yuan, which contributed to the lower-than-expected excess reserve ratio [1][19][20] Group 2 - In November, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to be relatively high, but with a significant increase in government debt net payments, government deposits are projected to decrease by about 250 billion yuan, which will provide some liquidity support [2][27] - The report anticipates an increase in monetary issuance of approximately 140 billion yuan in November, with a rise in reserve requirements by about 110 billion yuan [2][28] - The central bank's net repurchase operations in November are expected to result in a net withdrawal of 5,562 billion yuan, while MLF net investment is projected at 1,000 billion yuan [2][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, with a focus on maintaining stability in the financial system despite some tightening in the money market [3][55] - The average issuance scale of key-term government bonds in November decreased compared to October, indicating a potential shift in government financing strategies [2][33] - The report notes that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds in November was only 50 billion yuan, which is lower than market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to liquidity management [4][57] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle" and "counter-cyclical" adjustments, indicating a desire to manage the growth of social financing and M2 in relation to nominal GDP [3][45] - It is noted that the central bank's actions may be a response to previous recommendations from the National People's Congress regarding monetary policy adjustments [4][48] - The report suggests that while there is a potential for interest rate cuts in Q1 of the following year, the timing may be influenced by the overall economic conditions and fiscal policies [4][11]
中金:近期港股为何在三地中走得更弱?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 09:57
Core Viewpoint - The recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks compared to the US and A-share markets is attributed to a combination of factors including a declining credit cycle, liquidity pressure, and a mismatch between fundamentals and expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks have shown particular weakness among the three markets, influenced by a shrinking southbound capital flow and the upcoming expiration of lock-up periods for major IPOs [2][4]. - Concerns over the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike and the Federal Reserve's stance have contributed to the market's volatility, with US Treasury yields rising despite a recent rate cut by the Fed [2][4]. Group 2: Credit Cycle and Fundamentals - The key issue is the downward trend in the credit cycle, which has been evident for the past two months, leading to a likely stagnation or phase of slowdown in private credit and overall credit cycles unless there is significant policy intervention [4][6]. - The current market dynamics reflect a disconnect between the fundamentals and expectations, particularly in the technology sector, where high valuations and investor sensitivity to negative news are prevalent [6]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The report outlines four main sectors: 1. AI requires new industrial catalysts, with hardware visibility being more significant than application visibility [6]. 2. Strong cyclical sectors are influenced by US fiscal and real estate demand, alongside rising domestic PPI [6]. 3. Consumer sectors lack fundamental support, making them less attractive [6]. 4. Dividend stocks provide stable returns but lack upward elasticity [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Investors should monitor the PPI year-on-year growth rate and the M1 money supply growth rate, as these indicators may signal a potential turning point in private sector financing and economic activity [8].
流动性充裕难掩情绪脆弱
Southwest Securities· 2025-12-08 13:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect failed again, with both the stock and bond markets rising and falling together. Long-term interest rates fluctuated sharply between the "reality of loose money" and the "frustration of strong expectations," and the oversold of ultra-long-duration assets reflected the crowding of market funds and the fragility of market sentiment [3][91]. - In the last four trading weeks of the year, the fact that the "sales new rules" have not fully "landed" remains the main market concern, but the approaching important meetings have restored the "loose money" expectation. The focus of market gaming may still be the emotional fluctuations caused by marginal policy changes [3][92]. - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left-side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - On December 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multi - price - winning bidder - selected买断式逆回购 operation. The net investment of the central bank in treasury bonds in November was 5 billion yuan, far lower than the market's relatively optimistic expectation of 100 billion yuan. On December 5, 2025, six major banks stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [6][9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From December 1 to 5, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of - 84.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the basic currency will have a maturity withdrawal of 66.38 billion yuan from December 8 to 12, 2025. At the beginning of the month, the fund market was generally loose, and DR001 fell below 1.3% for the first time this year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit last week was 495.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 47.1 billion yuan, an increase of 289.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week [25][31][34]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of 128.844 billion yuan. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared with the average values from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 2.29 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [38][44][48]. - In the secondary market, at the beginning of the month, the short - term interest rates were stable, while the ultra - long - term interest rates continued to be affected by market noise and increased significantly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.01BP, - 1.46BP, 1.39BP, 0.17BP, 0.68BP, and 7.20BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread increased from 43.95BP to 44.64BP. The yields of the same - term CDB bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y CDB bond yield spread increased from 34.94BP to 37.66BP. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds increased slightly [51]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale was generally stable due to the relatively loose fund market. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds within 5 years and local bonds within 10 years; rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds over 5 years; insurance companies continued to prefer local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds were the main sellers last week [68][73]. - In October 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.77%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from September. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in October 2025 were about 110.31%, 191.29%, and 132.17% respectively [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 2.47% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 5.02% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week, and the South China Glass Index decreased by 4.70% week - on - week. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 9.92% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.31% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.09% and 1.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.07 last week [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left - side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93].
恒生科技指数等待流动性的拐点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 12:05
但上周美股已经有不错的反弹,标普500距离创新高也就2-3个点,市场的风险偏好已经有明显的回升,过两天美联储的降息落地后,需要观察下美联储会 放出什么信号,如果是鸽派信号,那可能市场会继续向上。 距离今年结束还有3个星期,从港股互联网股业绩后来看,互联网公司都能交出一份好的业绩,互联网股的龙头公司还是便宜的,只是在最近市场风险偏 好降低的情况下,市场没有多大的反应。 那对于目前的市场,尤其是对流动性敏感的科技股而言,要想有所突破,要么靠AI产业趋势有新的突破,要么需要流动性的明显改善,美股和港A都是如 此。因此,在AI泡沫担忧还争论不断没有定论的环境下,流动性的变化无疑成为短期影响市场的一个重要变量。 目前市场的预期里,预计美联储表态会是偏鸽派的,有利于市场的温和上涨。 所以,港股作为对风险偏好敏感的市场,若后天美联储的发言表态不强硬,那前段时间调整的跌幅有望迎来修复。而港股反弹时,还是恒生科技指数ETF (513180),恒生互联网ETF(513330)的确定性要更高。 市场流动性的新变化 自从10月底以来,市场投资者的风险偏好降低,全球风险资产承压,标普/纳指/恒科从高点的最大跌幅分别达5.1%/7.3% ...
流动性与机构行为跟踪:大行买短,农商接长
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 10:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week (December 1 - December 5), the funds' interest rates declined, the daily average of large - bank lending increased, and the funds deleveraged. The maturity volume of certificates of deposit decreased, and the maturity yield curve of certificates of deposit shifted upward. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were rural commercial banks, which mainly increased their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds. Funds continued to sell, mainly selling 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds and increasing their holdings of short - term credit bonds. Large banks increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds with a maturity of less than 3Y, and insurance companies continued to allocate more 20 - 30Y ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Monetary and Funding Conditions - A total of 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 107.6 billion yuan, 156.3 billion yuan, 79.3 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, and 139.8 billion yuan from Monday to Friday respectively, with a cumulative investment of 663.8 billion yuan. On Friday, 1000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured, and 1000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases were issued. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 848 billion yuan [9]. - The funds' prices declined. As of December 5, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.37%, 1.5%, 1.3%, and 1.44% respectively, changing by - 5.33BP, - 2.59BP, - 0.3BP, and - 2.88BP compared with November 28, and were at the 17%, 8%, 11%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively [11]. - The daily average of large - bank lending increased. From December 1 to December 5, the total lending scale of large banks was 22.31 trillion yuan, with the highest single - day lending scale of 4.6 trillion yuan and the daily average lending scale of 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 610 billion yuan compared with the previous week's daily average [15]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased. The average daily trading volume was 7.93 trillion yuan, with the highest single - day trading volume reaching 8.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.77% compared with the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions increased, with the average daily proportion being 89.5%, the highest single - day proportion reaching 89.9%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points compared with the previous week's daily average, and as of December 5, it was at the 90.4% percentile [17]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit and Bills - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased this week, and the net financing amount increased. The total issuance was 495.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.14 billion yuan compared with the previous week; the total maturity was 448.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 353.23 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The net financing amount was 46.3 billion yuan, an increase of 289.09 billion yuan compared with the previous week [20]. - Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of inter - bank certificates of deposit by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 165.6 billion yuan, 99.23 billion yuan, 196.16 billion yuan, and 29.16 billion yuan respectively, changing by 50.49 billion yuan, - 92.98 billion yuan, 1.61 billion yuan, and - 17.22 billion yuan compared with the previous week [20]. - Among different maturity types, the 6M issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit were 66.6 billion yuan, 60.35 billion yuan, 217.36 billion yuan, 41.94 billion yuan, and 108.86 billion yuan respectively, changing by 17.72 billion yuan, - 46.91 billion yuan, 72.85 billion yuan, - 112.03 billion yuan, and 4.23 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The 6M certificates of deposit accounted for the highest proportion of the total issuance of certificates of deposit by different types of banks, with a proportion of 43.90%, mainly due to more issuances by state - owned banks; the 1Y maturity accounted for 21.99%, mainly due to more issuances by joint - stock banks [21]. - The issuance rates of certificates of deposit by different banks were differentiated this week, and the issuance rates of certificates of deposit with all maturities increased. As of December 5, the issuance rates of one - year certificates of deposit by joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by 0.25BP, - 1BP, 4.77BP, and - 7.5BP compared with November 28, and were at the 4%, 4%, 6%, and 4% historical percentiles respectively. In terms of maturities, as of December 5, the issuance rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit changed by 5.89BP, 1.66BP, and 2.58BP compared with November 28, and were at the 8%, 5%, and 4% historical percentiles respectively [28]. - The Shibor rates were differentiated this week. As of December 5, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor rates changed by 0BP, - 2.1BP, - 2.1BP, 0BP, and 0BP compared with November 28 to 1.3%, 1.42%, 1.51%, 1.52%, and 1.58% respectively [30]. - The maturity yield curve of certificates of deposit shifted upward. As of December 5, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y maturity yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by 13.43BP, 4BP, 2BP, 1.5BP, and 1.5BP compared with November 28 [32]. - The bill rates were differentiated. As of December 5, the 3M direct discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks, 3M transfer discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks, 6M direct discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks, and 6M transfer discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks were 0.69%, 0.47%, 0.81%, and 0.86% respectively, changing by - 6BP, 5BP, - 6BP, and 8BP compared with November 28 [37]. 3. Institutional Behavior Tracking - The inter - bank leverage ratio increased. As of December 5, the total inter - bank leverage ratio of the bond market increased by 0.36 percentage points compared with November 28 to 106.34%, at the 27.6% historical percentile since 2021 [39]. - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds decreased slightly. As of December 5, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 176.6%, 129.6%, and 104.2% respectively, changing by 0.82BP, - 2.55BP, - 0.69BP, and - 0.16BP compared with November 28, and were at the 27%, 0%, 75%, and 4% historical percentiles respectively [41]. - The central value of the net purchase duration of funds continued to decline, while rural commercial banks and wealth management products increased their durations. As of December 5, the weighted average net purchase duration (MA = 10) of funds was - 8.48 years, a decline from - 2.62 years on November 28, at the 0% historical percentile; the weighted average net purchase duration (MA = 10) of wealth management products was 3.28 years, an increase compared with November 28, at the 94% historical percentile; the weighted average net purchase duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was 3.58 years, an increase compared with November 28, at the 86% historical percentile; the weighted average net purchase duration (MA = 10) of insurance companies was 11.05 years, a decline compared with November 28, at the 78% historical percentile [43]. - The duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased this week. As of December 5, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.02 years compared with November 28 to 3.35 years, at the 22% historical percentile since this year; the duration of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.17 years compared with November 28 to 1.62 years, at the 61% historical percentile since this year [47].