证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | | | 央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250706 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 3央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行公开市场净回笼流动性 13753 亿元。周一跨半年当日资 金面明显收紧，周二后尽管央行逆回购持 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.7%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.75%. Alibaba Health dropped nearly 5%, and AIA Group fell nearly 2% [1] - According to Zhongtai International, the technical bull market pattern for Hong Kong stocks is clear in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the market under supportive policies and improved US dollar liquidity in the second half of 2025 [1] - Earnings per share for the Hang Seng Index are projected to grow by 8.5% and 8.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance the asset quality and liquidity of the market, with southbound capital likely to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The market is expected to show a trend of "oscillation upwards + structural differentiation" in the second half of the year, driven by macro policies focusing on high-quality development, technological innovation, and domestic demand [2] - Annual net inflow of southbound funds is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, continuously improving liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The bond market in 2025 presents a "stair - climbing" market rhythm. The current liquidity has returned to normal, but long - term bonds have limited odds due to certificate of deposit (CD) prices. The liquidity is expected to remain loose in July. The policy may return to discretionary decision - making. The yield of CDs in June followed a logic of negative factors not materializing, and the balance decreased. The decline in liability costs may benefit the bond market. The "low - interest rate + low - spread" bond market makes it difficult to obtain excess returns, and the 10 - year Treasury yield in July may operate in the range of 1.6% - 1.7% [3][4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 1月至今债市走势分析及其宏观逻辑 (Analysis of the bond market trend and its macro - logic from January to date) - **2025Q1**: Economic expectations improved, from tight funds to tight CDs, long - term bonds corrected, and equities and commodities strengthened [3][31][42] - **April 2025**: The external environment deteriorated, liquidity turned loose, the bond market quickly went bullish, and equities and commodities performed weakly [3][31][42] - **May - June 2025**: Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. After the bond market declined to a low level, there was no significant adjustment risk, but capital gains narrowed in the volatile market, and the focus was on exploring spreads. Equities and commodities performed well due to reduced geopolitical risk concerns [3][31][42] - **June 2025 bond market characteristics**: It was a peak period for government bond supply. With the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, funds were unexpectedly loose. Trading desks actively reserved duration to bet on capital gains, but allocation desks considered the low absolute yield level, and the attractiveness of the bond market weakened. Fundamental data was mixed, with some signs of improvement in consumption, but it was still restricted by fiscal stimulus in the future [3][37][41] - **Treasury yield curve**: In June, the 10Y - 1Y Treasury term spread expanded as loose funds drove down the short - end, but the 30Y - 10Y term spread remained in a low - level shock, reflecting the correction of pessimistic liquidity expectations and still - pessimistic fundamental expectations [20] - **Credit spreads**: In June, the credit spreads of low - grade secondary perpetual bonds compressed, while the credit spreads of medium - term notes expanded, which was related to institutional credit - sinking strategies and the seasonal absence of credit bond allocation power due to wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet [21][25] - **Duration strategy**: Holding long - duration Treasury bonds has not been a good experience in 2025, with monthly declines often wiping out previous monthly gains [26] 2. 流动性与负债成本：从悲观预期修正到回归常态化 (Liquidity and liability costs: From the correction of pessimistic expectations to the return to normalization) - **June liquidity**: The funds were unexpectedly loose in June. Among 20 working days, DR001 ran below the policy rate for 15 days. The supporting factors included exchange - rate appreciation pressure, the arrival of 520 billion yuan in capital injections for four major banks in June, and other normal factors such as end - of - half - year care and fiscal bond - issuance care [4][51][56] - **July liquidity**: The situation of dealing with appreciation pressure is likely to continue. The net financing of government bonds in July may not be small, and the central bank may continue to provide support. Attention should be paid to the potential disturbance of the tax - payment peak in July. The maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity in July is 1.4 trillion yuan [4][59][61] - **Monetary policy clues in Q2 2025**: The policy may return to discretionary decision - making. The statement on the bond market and exchange rate in the Q2 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has changed, which may imply that it is difficult for the 10 - year Treasury bond to break through the previous low before the next interest - rate cut [66] - **CDs in June**: The yield of CDs in June followed a logic of negative factors not materializing, with both volume and price decreasing, and the balance also declined. The reasons for the limited decline in CD yields included the record - high maturity volume in June, the seasonal increase in demand for liabilities in June, and the restriction of allocation ability due to wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet [4][74][78] - **CDs in July**: Bullish factors may prevail, and the yield of 1Y AAA CDs may fall back to the range of 1.55% - 1.60% [4][82][84] - **Decline in liability costs - Bank deposits**: The acceleration of deposit term - to - maturity in 2022 may benefit the reset of bank liability costs in 2025. The maturity distribution of deposits of the six major banks in 2025 is 22.11 trillion yuan in Q1 and 30.28 trillion yuan from Q2 to Q4 [4][90] - **Decline in liability costs - Insurance**: In August 2024, when the insurance policy - reserve interest rate was lowered, there was an obvious effect of boosting premium scale, and the secondary bond - buying scale of insurance institutions also increased significantly. In 2025, further reduction of the insurance policy - reserve interest rate may bring incremental funds to the bond market (with the greatest impact on local government bonds), but the diversion effect of the stock market needs to be noted [4][93][100] 3. 内需偏弱的根源 (Reasons for the weak domestic demand) - **Weak economic characteristics**: Both investment and consumption demands are weak. Residents' income expectations are weak, and consumption demand is low, in a negative feedback state. In the short term, the demand gap of old growth drivers may be difficult to fill with new growth drivers. The downward pressure on prices continues, with both the GDP deflator and PPI remaining in the negative range for a long time, indicating the restriction of insufficient demand [106][111][114] - **Weak domestic demand**: High - frequency data shows that both the consumption and investment ends of domestic demand are significantly weaker than in previous years [116] - **Unstable exports**: High - frequency data shows that port throughput - related indicators are approaching last year's levels, indicating a possible decline in foreign - trade growth. In the past few years, although export volume has increased, the contribution of falling export prices and exchange rates to export growth is large, and this pattern may not be sustainable in the long term. High interest rates and uncertain trade environments have led to signs of weakening overseas economies [120][124][127] - **Price and policy**: Promoting price recovery remains the policy focus, but prices may continue to bottom out in Q3, and inflation improvement may not occur until Q4. Fiscal policy may be intensified in Q4, but in the short term, it is beneficial to the bond market [130][133][136] 4. 债市"走楼梯" 行情的新特征 (New characteristics of the "stair - climbing" bond - market trend) - **Difficulty in obtaining excess returns**: In the "low - interest rate + low - spread" bond - market environment, it is difficult to obtain excess returns. The attractiveness of allocation desks decreases, and the trading enthusiasm of trading desks also declines. However, trading desks can still seek capital gains through timing in the volatile market [140][142][144] - **Risk preference and interest - rate relationship**: Since 2023, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds has declined unilaterally, but the most attractive sectors in the stock market are "quasi - fixed - income" high - dividend targets. The co - existence of falling risk - free rates and rising risk preferences may occur when there is only policy support but no obvious improvement in fundamentals [145][147] - **Bond - fund duration and market adjustment**: When bond funds consistently increase duration, the instability of the bond market increases, but adjustment does not necessarily occur, often requiring external forces such as tight funds or unexpected fundamentals to break the market balance. Fund duration reaching a high level and then showing a consistent signal of increasing duration may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for bond - market adjustment [149][150][155] - **Obstacles to interest - rate decline**: The core obstacle to interest - rate decline is the existence of better assets compared to 10 - year Treasury bonds, including the possible delay in policy - rate cuts, the expansion of overseas investment space, and the expansion and capital diversion of the high - dividend equity market [156][160] - **Investment opportunities**: The bond market is still in a bullish window, but the odds are limited. In the short term, the trading logic of exploring spreads may continue. Local government bonds currently have high cost - effectiveness, the spread fluctuations of ultra - long - term credit bonds are worthy of attention, and positive - arbitrage opportunities in Treasury - bond futures may emerge when carry narrows [163][166] - **Potential factors**: Bullish factors for the bond market include an unexpected decline in the real - estate market, monetary - policy reform, and the central bank restarting bond purchases. Potential risks include strengthened macro - prudential supervision, unexpected deterioration of tariffs, and price recovery after the effectiveness of anti - involution policies [165]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has been actively implementing monetary policy measures to inject stability and ample liquidity into the market, supporting the ongoing economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On July 3, the central bank conducted a 572 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, despite a net withdrawal of 4,521 billion yuan due to the maturity of 5,093 billion yuan in reverse repos on the same day [1]. - In June, the central bank's liquidity injection included a net reverse repo of 5,359 billion yuan, a net MLF injection of 1,180 billion yuan, and a net injection of 2,018 billion yuan from other structural monetary policy tools [3][4]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee has decided to enhance the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply [3][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The interbank market remains stable with a continued decline in the weighted average rate of repos, and the overnight rate has stabilized around 1.36%, marking a six-month low [1]. - The one-year interbank certificates of deposit have seen a slight decrease to around 1.62%, indicating a downward trend in borrowing costs for non-bank institutions [1]. - Analysts expect the liquidity conditions in July to remain loose, supported by the seasonal factors and the central bank's commitment to maintaining liquidity amid external uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The central bank is likely to continue its proactive liquidity management, with expectations of further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as the potential resumption of government bond trading operations [5]. - New policy financial tools are being developed, with a proposed funding amount of 500 billion yuan targeting sectors such as digital economy and artificial intelligence [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the liquidity situation from May to July 2025, predicting that the excess reserve ratio in June will reach 1.5%, and in July it will be around 1.3%. It also points out that the central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001, and the funding rate in July is expected to continue to decline, maintaining an optimistic outlook on the July liquidity environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 May: Central Bank's Continuous Additional Withdrawal and Slow Disbursement of Replacement Bonds Lead to Lower - than - Expected Increase in Excess Reserve Ratio - In May, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.1pct to 1.0%, lower than the expected 1.2%, remaining at the lowest level in the same period since 2019. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations decreased by an additional about 140 billion yuan, and the cumulative decline since March exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan [6] - Fiscal deposits in May increased by 28.1 billion yuan, slightly higher than expected. The government deposit decreased by an additional 53 billion yuan compared to the sum of the general fiscal surplus and net government bond payments, lower than the expected 65 billion yuan. The progress of special refinancing bonds in May might still be lower than expected [8] - The cash return in May was slow, and the reserve requirement and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations. The central bank's claims on the government decreased by 8.42 billion yuan, and the increase compared to before the central bank started bond - buying in July last year was less than 1 trillion yuan [8] 3.2 June: Excess Reserves Return to Neutral, and the Central Bank Promotes Funding Normalization Step by Step with DR001 as the Anchor - In June, the government deposit is expected to decrease by about 74 billion yuan, which is an important source of liquidity supplement. The reserve requirement may consume about 32 billion yuan of excess reserves, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to increase by about 1.23 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.5%, up about 0.5pct from May [11] - The central bank disclosed the liquidity injection situation of various central bank tools in May and announced the tender information of repurchase - style reverse repurchase one day before the operation, which is interpreted as an attempt to increase policy transparency, but it is still difficult to fully convey the central bank's policy intention [24][27] - In June, the central bank's net lending center of banks continued to rise, accompanied by a decline in funding rates. DR007 did not fall to the expected 1.4% - 1.5% range, while the average value of DR001 fell below 1.4%, which may reflect a change in the central bank's funding regulation model. The central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001 [29][35] 3.3 In a Steady - State Environment, the Lower Limit of Funding Easing Has Not Been Reached, and Funding Rates in July Are Expected to Continue to Decline - In July, the government deposit is expected to increase by about 46 billion yuan month - on - month, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years, and the consumption of excess reserves will be marginally weakened. The reserve requirement may decrease by about 10 billion yuan, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may continue to withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to decrease by about 24 billion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.3%, down 0.2pct from June [42] - As of June, the average value of DR001 has fallen close to the policy rate. Whether it can continue to decline in July is the core issue of market concern. Although the central bank maintains the goal of restricting the rapid decline of interest rates, it also needs to balance cost reduction and maintaining bank spreads. If the current fundamental environment does not change significantly, the current monetary easing tone may continue [3][54] - Historically, interest rate cuts have often occurred in Q3, and if there is an interest rate cut this year, it is likely to be after the Politburo meeting in July. Even if there is no interest rate cut, there may still be room for further easing in the funding market, and it is likely that DR001 will fall below 1.3%. The overall outlook for the July liquidity environment is still optimistic [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. From the perspective of bank assets and liabilities, July is not a traditional large credit month, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) in July is significantly lower than that in June. From the perspective of central bank liquidity injection, considering the external uncertainties caused by trade frictions, the central bank is expected to maintain a supportive attitude in terms of liquidity injection. However, the long - term bond yield is still at a relatively low level, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market has risen above 108% as the funding rate declines, so the room for further loosening of the funding situation is limited [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank's Net Injection**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 126.72 billion yuan. The open - market reverse repurchase of 2027.5 billion yuan will expire from June 30 to July 4. In June, the MLF net injection was 11.8 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan [6]. - **Funding Rate**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively, with a decrease of 0.5 basis points and an increase of 0.6 basis points compared to June 16 - 20. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.65% and 1.82% respectively, with an increase of 12.8 basis points and 24.0 basis points compared to June 16 - 20 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 78.98 billion yuan, an increase of about 31.56 billion yuan compared to June 16 - 22. From June 30 to July 6, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be about - 0.594 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (ICDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M ICDs were 1.6650% and 1.6150% respectively, rising 4 basis points and 1 basis point compared to June 20, while the 1Y ICD yield was basically the same as that on June 20 [9]. - **Maturity Scale**: The ICDs have passed the peak maturity period. The maturity scale of ICDs in July is about 2.8 trillion yuan. From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 41.14 billion yuan [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior The leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.45%, compared with 108.25% from June 16 to June 20 [10].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the continuous allocation of reversal factors, indicating that the current economic downturn, slightly loose liquidity, and improved credit indicators suggest a preference for growth-oriented stocks in the investment strategy [2][5][7] - The macro asset allocation viewpoint suggests a slight increase in US stock allocation by 5%, maintaining the equity position unchanged due to the current economic conditions [2][24][26] - Economic leading indicators are in the early stages of a decline, with predictions indicating a continued downward trend through July 2025 [13][14][16] Group 2 - Liquidity conditions are improving, with monetary supply rebounding and interest rates remaining below the 12-month average, indicating a slightly loose liquidity environment [20][21][23] - Credit indicators show a mixed picture, with overall credit metrics remaining high despite some structural weaknesses, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook [24][25] - The report highlights that liquidity remains the most closely monitored variable in the market, especially following recent market fluctuations driven by liquidity changes [28][30] Group 3 - The industry selection is focused on sectors that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations but more sensitive to credit conditions, with a high growth attribute across selected industries [32][29] - The top industries identified for investment based on their sensitivity to credit and economic conditions include electronics, media, and power equipment, indicating a strategic focus on growth-oriented sectors [29][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, the stock index is more likely to strengthen and fluctuate under the drive of sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction. In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Overseas, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. - In the future, the central bank may continue to reasonably supplement liquidity through over - renewal of MLF or in combination with reverse repurchase tools in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 2.14 with a 175.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.69 with a 34.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.29 with a 3.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. The central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, with 1820 billion yuan maturing, achieving a net injection of 1180 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive month. Combining with reverse repurchase operations, the net injection of medium - term liquidity is 3180 billion yuan [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.37% to 3936.1, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.16% to 2712, the CSI 500 rose 0.88% to 5915.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.26% to 6356.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 14869 billion yuan, a decrease of 542 billion yuan from last Friday. Industries such as aerospace, gaming, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, medical services, electronic chemicals, jewelry, small metals, and communication equipment led the gains, while only the securities, banking, cement building materials, and airport sectors declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 0.4%, IH当月 rose 0.3%, IC当月 rose 0.6%, and IM当月 rose 0.8%. The trading volume and positions of all four futures contracts decreased, with IF trading volume down 26.4%, IH trading volume down 31.3%, IC trading volume down 13.7%, and IM trading volume down 11.4%. IF positions decreased by 3.8%, IH positions by 9.1%, IC positions by 3.4%, and IM positions by 5.7% [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium/discount rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.29%, 8.64%, 5.76%, and 4.34% respectively; IH are 14.20%, 6.73%, 3.82%, and 1.72% respectively; IC are 17.96%, 12.96%, 11.17%, and 9.52% respectively; IM are 23.35%, 16.93%, 14.72%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The winning factor for trading in July may be the profit - taking rhythm [1][3][14] - The bond market performance in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than that in the first half, and many institutions expect the yield to break through downward in the third quarter. However, "front - running" and "consensus expectations" are the main obstacles to the market, and the main logic for the bond market in the third quarter is the repair of institutional liability costs and income performance, which requires time [3][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Liquidity and Short - term Interest Rates - Season - end liquidity remains loose, with a significant "accumulation" effect on the last working day. The cross - season progress this quarter is significantly slow. Although the "accumulation" effect may intensify capital market fluctuations, it is unlikely to change the looser capital market condition at the beginning of July. Short - term coupon - bearing products fluctuate with market sentiment, and the front - running effect of inter - bank certificates of deposit weakened in the last week, with slightly higher interest rates [1][9] - Whether the central bank has restarted Treasury bond purchases in June will be revealed soon. What matters more is whether short - term purchases form an incremental amount. If the 1 - year Treasury bond does not show a rapid downward trend, the emotional stimulus of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond purchases on long - term bonds is limited [2][14] 2. Long - term Interest Rates - Long - term interest rates returned to a "low - volatility" state after front - running. In late June, long - term interest rates lacked the power for a breakthrough decline due to limited trading space, reduced seasonal liquidity factors, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 10 - year minus 1 - year term spread returned to 30BP [2][11] - For long - term interest rates to break through previous lows, it depends on the "steep illusion" of the Treasury yield curve. However, this kind of trading market based on the "steep illusion" has an unstable foundation [13] 3. Trading Time Windows - The first and last weeks of July are two time windows when trading sentiment may be high. If the capital market fluctuations caused by the cross - season "accumulation" on the last day of June are not too severe, the marginal loosening of liquidity in the first week of July will be strengthened. If institutions expect limited incremental policies, they may enter a "front - running" trading state in the week before the Politburo meeting at the end of July. However, external uncertainties and the recovery of risk appetite may cause market fluctuations [3][14]