10月22日，港股调整蓄势，接连2日收涨的恒生科技盘中一度跌超1.5%。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规 模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数跌超2%，持仓股中，网易、比亚迪电子、京东健康、 金山软件、百度集团、联想集团等领跌。 中信证券（香港）指出，2025年四季度投资主题是流动性与政策"协奏曲"。其中流动性叙事方面，该机 构认为，美联储降息周期重启，预防式降息有利于股市上涨。复盘1984年以来美联储的9轮降息周期， 在预防式降息周期中，港股市场往往具有显著弹性，主要系港股投资者结构多元，是内外资金交汇点， 在预防式降息周期当中，政策和盈利预期传导快。 此外，港股市场具备了国内完整的AI产业链公司（包括基础设施、软硬件、应用），叠加越来越多的 优质龙头A股企业赴港上市，港股基本面的触底反弹，其判断港股仍将受益于境内外市场的流动性外溢 和AI叙事的持续催化，仍有估值扩张空间，2024年初以来的长牛行情预计延续。 而港股科技板块的预期弹性更高。此外，除了估值的视角，港股科技的价格走势也同样呈现为高性价比 区域。最后，AI创新和投入也夯实了恒生科技指数业绩增长的预期。展望2026年，港股基本面预计触 底 ...

Project Naming & Marketing - Project naming conventions, including those based on numerology, can impact project success [1] - Leveraging the names of successful projects can boost initial traffic, but may attract irrelevant users [1] - The AI project "buildpad" benefits from traffic misdirected from "buidlpad" due to similar names [1] Buidlpad & MMT Finance - Buidlpad projects have historically provided stable returns [1] - Users staking MMTFinance on Buidlpad can participate in new project launches by joining the team, adding Ⓜ️Ⓜ️T to their ID, tagging the project, and promoting its features [1] MMT Finance DEX - Momentum (MMTFinance) DEX utilizes Sui's Programmable Transaction Blocks (PTB) to combine multi-step operations into atomic transactions, reducing fees and simplifying the user experience [1] - MMTFinance's parallel execution architecture ensures high throughput and transaction speed, mitigating MEV risks [1] - MMTFinance has attracted over 2.1 million users and surpassed $550 million in Total Value Locked (TVL), becoming Sui's deepest liquidity venue [1] - MMTFinance serves as Sui's core liquidity engine, supporting various protocols and becoming the preferred liquidity and distribution partner for projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a bullish trend through the first half of 2026, despite potential short-term economic data softness [2][3] Economic Outlook - Volatility has increased, with the VIX rising over 20, but concerns about a recession are deemed unwarranted [3] - The ongoing government shutdown may lead to increased probabilities of the Federal Reserve cutting rates, which could be bullish for the market [5][6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The expectation is for two more rate cuts this year, which would add liquidity to the market [6][10] - The market may not require immediate interest rate adjustments in early 2026, as long as the Fed maintains a data-dependent narrative [7][11] Market Dynamics - Current liquidity dynamics suggest that fundamentals may not significantly impact market performance [8] - The market is anticipated to experience a "violent move up" in the first half of 2026 due to aggressive rate cuts [10][11] Investment Strategy - Tactical strategies have focused on riskier assets, with a recommendation to stay invested in the market until clear signs of exhaustion appear [12][14] - The focus should be on AI-driven stocks and small caps, which are expected to outperform larger indices [16][18] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin's correlation with the NASDAQ has decreased, and institutional adoption is increasing, making it a potential leader in a bull market [19][20] - Current levels of cryptocurrency are viewed as a good buying opportunity, with Bitcoin ETFs being introduced into tactical strategies [21]

全球市场正上演诡异一幕：黄金涨势如1979年般狂热，股市则重现1999年的繁荣盛况。但这两个时代截 然不同——前者以恶性通胀和地缘动荡为标志，后者则是互联网泡沫狂热与地缘局势相对平稳的结合。 多数分析师认为，黄金在股市新一波繁荣中飙升，是因为投资者希望对冲政策不确定性（尤其是美国的 政策风险）。但这一理论暗含矛盾：全球投资者需同时接纳"人工智能驱动美股的乐观情绪"与"以黄金 为代表的谨慎立场"，这种认知失调的容忍度堪称反常。更反常的是对冲选择的本身——相比黄金，更 直接的避险工具（如买入股票看跌期权）当前价格更低，为何还要选黄金？ 现任洛克菲勒国际董事长鲁奇尔·夏尔马（Ruchir Sharma）认为，黄金与股市"比翼双飞"另有原因：海 量流动性。疫情期间及之后，各国政府与央行推出数万亿美元刺激政策，大量资金仍在市场中流转，持 续推动股市、黄金等多类资产的趋势性交易。受此影响，美国人持有的货币市场共同基金规模在疫情后 激增，目前已达7.5万亿美元，较长期趋势高出1.5万亿美元以上。 尽管美联储称其政策"温和紧缩"，但实际情况是，名义利率仍低于名义GDP增速，这使得金融环境维 持宽松。各国政府也在推波助澜——美 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, Sino-US frictions deepen, affecting the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, and still has upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflow, and bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - Future index performance depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the index can maintain relative strength [9]. - It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market falling significantly. For example, the ChiNext Index dropped 5.71% and the STAR 50 Index dropped 6.16%. The performance of global indices also varied, with the Nasdaq rising 2.14% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling 7.98% [12][17]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, the trends were differentiated. A few sectors such as coal, banks, and food and beverages rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications fell significantly [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds pushed up M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. By the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [15][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.0% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets decreased to around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened was 1.57 million, 2.86 million, 3.06 million, 1.02 million, 1.555 million, 1.6464 million, 1.9636 million, and 2.6503 million respectively [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.51, with a percentile of 82.67, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.95, with a percentile of 83.75 [36]. - The stock - bond ratio and its percentile of major stock indices were also presented, which can be used to evaluate the investment value of stocks relative to bonds [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverages were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and proposed a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were proposed [51][52]. - US Fed policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered with additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

Group 1: Liquidity and Interest Rates - The funding rates remain low, with R001 averaging around 1.35% and R007 around 1.47% during the week of October 13-17, 2025[1][12] - Despite nearly 2 trillion in open market maturities, liquidity achieved self-balancing due to central bank support and low government debt payment pressure[1][11] - The overnight rate is expected to continue fluctuating around OMO-5bp, with R007 likely to stay below 1.50%[2][17] Group 2: Open Market Operations - From October 20-24, the reverse repo maturity will be 789.1 billion, significantly lower than the average of 1.1 trillion since 2025[2][17] - The central bank net drained 581.9 billion in the week of October 13-17, with reverse repos maturing at 1.021 trillion[3][22] - The net reverse repo balance as of October 17 was 789.1 billion, down from 1.137 trillion on October 11[3][24] Group 3: Government Bonds and Payments - Government bond net payments for October 20-24 are projected at 158.4 billion, up from 140.2 billion the previous week[5][30] - The increase in net payments is primarily due to a rise in local government bond issuance, which increased by 177.6 billion[5][32] - The net issuance of treasury bonds decreased from 181.1 billion to 21.6 billion, influenced by a significant increase in maturity amounts[5][32] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit is expected to remain manageable, with 616.7 billion maturing from October 20-24[6][38] - The weighted issuance rate for one-year CDs was 1.63%, a slight increase from the previous week[6][36] - The net financing from CDs turned positive at 234 billion, with total issuance at 727.6 billion during the week of October 13-17[6][41]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the expectation of an economic cycle recovery is the most important theme for asset pricing this year, despite various influencing factors such as liquidity, regulatory policies, monetary policies, and risk appetite [1] Group 1: Economic Cycle Indicators - The resistance to the recovery of the economic cycle is diminishing, as indicated by leading indicators [1] - The slope of fundamental changes may be more critical for short-term asset performance [1] Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - The characteristics of short-term policies include a high utilization rate of effective fiscal policies, while incremental policies may focus on small-scale policy financial tools and loose monetary policies [1] - There is a risk of slowing M1 expansion, which may affect the willingness of active funds to enter the market [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. banking system's reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, with a decrease of approximately $45.7 billion in the week ending October 15, bringing the total to $2.99 trillion [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that quantitative tightening (QT) may stop in the coming months as reserves approach a level deemed "adequate" by policymakers [2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is impacting daily operations in the financial system, with liquidity tightening potentially leading to market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that the current balance sheet size has returned to a reasonable level corresponding to "adequate reserves," estimated at around $2.7 trillion [2] - The effective federal funds rate has seen a slight increase, indicating a potential tightening of financial conditions, currently within the 4% to 4.25% target range [2] - The trading volume in the federal funds market has decreased, with non-U.S. institutions having less excess cash to allocate, and Federal Home Loan Banks shifting more funds to the repurchase market due to higher rates [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 16, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 236 billion yuan, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 612 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - Despite the central bank's net withdrawal in the open market, the interbank market remains liquid, with overnight repo rates around 1.31% [3] - The central bank has conducted two buyout reverse repurchase operations in October, indicating a proactive liquidity management stance [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is approximately 1.67%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.42%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.06%. The 5-year and 2-year main contracts both saw a slight decline of 0.01% [12] Group 5: Economic and Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade talks, emphasizing mutual respect [13] - The U.S. is considering extending the suspension of tariffs on China in exchange for delaying rare earth export controls, with China reiterating its stance on unilateral sanctions [13] Group 6: Real Estate Market Trends - As of the end of September, the number of auctioned properties in the national judicial auction market decreased by approximately 4.9% year-on-year, with total transaction amounts dropping by about 21.3% compared to the previous year [13]