Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has strengthened, and the disk has rebounded recently. However, fundamentally, the weekly production is at a high level, and there is an obvious surplus compared to the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply and demand will be further pressured. It is recommended to track macro fluctuations and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply and demand pattern is still bearish, but the previous phased negative factors have basically been exhausted. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions, wait and see in the short term, and wait for the opportunity to short on the rebound [1]. - Recently, the production and sales have significantly warmed up, and the disk has stabilized and rebounded. After multiple price cuts, the middle and lower reaches have begun to replenish their inventories one after another, and the spot-futures traders have been actively purchasing. Due to the weakening of the basis, some spot-futures traders have no quotes. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuous performance of the spot market. Returning to the industry's supply and demand, although the deep-processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low-e glass开工率 has continued to be low, showing no obvious characteristics of the peak season. In the long term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess production capacity. It has been suggested to close out the previous short positions and pay attention to the spot market to capture short-term long opportunities [1]. Logs - The price of log futures contract 2601 is at a relatively low level. The obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices has formed a certain support for the import cost, limiting the downward space of the disk. However, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals in the future. On the one hand, the import volume to the port will increase seasonally in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually emerge. On the other hand, the effect of the national subsidy policy has faded, and the furniture demand has weakened, resulting in insufficient support from the terminal demand and an increased risk of inventory accumulation at the port. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market's pessimistic expectation dominates. Overall, the log futures disk is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the follow-up progress of the China-US economic and trade consultations on the import cost expectation and the changes in the spot price [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there has been a lot of rain in the producing areas until the end of the month, and the raw material prices have continued to rise. In the short term, the cost side strongly supports the rubber price. In the long term, there is still an expectation of increased supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the future weather conditions. On the demand side, most semi-steel tire enterprises have maintained stable production schedules. Currently, there are concentrated orders for snow tires with various specifications and models. To ensure the normal supply of each product, the production enthusiasm of semi-steel tire enterprises remains high. For all-steel tires, the enterprises' shipment performance has been stable, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased. There are plans to boost sales at the end of the month, and most enterprises are likely to maintain stable production schedules, with a slight fluctuation in the overall capacity utilization rate. In summary, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on the prospect of a December interest rate cut may put short-term pressure on the rubber price. It is necessary to pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the macro changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space for the rubber price. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 and 15,500 [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has slightly decreased by 630 yuan/ton, a decline of about 1.2%. The futures price has risen driven by positive news such as the expected establishment of a platform company, but then declined with a reduction in positions. This may be because the arbitrage window opened after the price increase, leading some long positions to close out. The futures price closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 635 yuan/ton. It was reported that on October 28, 2025, Mr. Zhu Gongshan of GCL Group revealed in the CCTV program "Economic Half - Hour" that 17 major industry enterprises basically agreed to sign an agreement to form a consortium, which is beneficial for price increases. On the supply side, as the production capacity in the southwest region is gradually shut down, the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased, and the supply pressure has decreased, but the downstream procurement has decreased, resulting in an increase in inventory. It should be noted that the silicon wafer price has slightly decreased, and the sustainability of the polysilicon price increase needs to be monitored. Currently, polysilicon is mainly oscillating at a high level. On the one hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and the production control situation. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side to support the increase in supply. After the significant increase in the futures price, the futures price is at a premium to the spot average price. For further significant increases, it is necessary to pay attention to the hedging space of upstream enterprises. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether there will be further implementation measures or policies [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, and the futures price has risen driven by the news of anti - involution, closing at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the weekly supply - side output has increased, while the demand - side output has decreased, which may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on the price. When the spot price is under pressure, it is necessary to note that the opening of the arbitrage window in East China may bring hedging opportunities. The coking coal price has risen under positive news such as supply contraction, and its impact on the industrial silicon futures price needs to be noted. Currently, it is still maintained that the increase in industrial silicon supply puts pressure on the price, but there is also cost support at the bottom. It is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,500 and 9,500 [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.27% and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.20%. The 05 basis of glass decreased by 12.03%, and the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 51.61% [1]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased from 85.53% to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased from 74.57 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.95 million tons to 16.13 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased from 59.355 million weight boxes to 62.824 million weight boxes, a rise of 5.84%. The soda ash factory inventory increased from 159.99 million tons to 165.98 million tons, a rise of 3.74%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased from 67.19 million tons to 69.91 million tons, a rise of 4.05% [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Logs - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 increased slightly. The prices of various log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost remained unchanged, and the exchange rate remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 6.00%, and the number of ships at the port increased by 4.55%. The total inventory of national coniferous logs decreased by 2.74%, and the daily inventory withdrawal volume increased [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 43.44%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 31.94%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 1.43%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August changed, and the production of China increased. The开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in August increased, and the tire export volume in September decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The protected area inventory decreased by 1.20%, the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased by 6.28%, and the出库率 and入库率 of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.19%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 92.00%. The prices of N - type silicon wafers and some battery components remained unchanged, and the prices of some components increased slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly and monthly production of silicon wafers increased, and the monthly production of polysilicon decreased. The import and export volume of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70% [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased. The monthly spreads of different contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The national and regional production of industrial silicon changed, the开工率 of different regions changed, and the production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy changed. The industrial silicon export volume decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the energy chemical products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea. Some products are in a "Bearish Consolidation" or "Bearish Rebound" state, such as L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][2][6] Core Views - The overall energy chemical market is under pressure, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost - side fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Most products are expected to face downward pressure in the medium - to - long term, but short - term rebounds may occur due to cost fluctuations and market sentiment [1][2][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, leading to an oversupply of crude oil. The market has digested the risk of sanctions against Russia, and the driving force of oil prices has shifted to supply. The consumption off - season has begun, and the pressure of oversupply is gradually increasing. There are also geopolitical and macro - economic factors at play [1][9] - Strategy: Hold short positions, buy call options to control risks, and lightly add short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 465] [1][11] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The risk of US sanctions against Russia has been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased, with relatively strong demand on the demand side. The port inventory has decreased [1][15] - Strategy: Buy put options and wait for the release of risks. Lightly try short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [1][16] L - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches is neutral. The import volume in October is large, and there is an expectation of further increase. The supply will continue to be in a loose pattern. The demand peak season has arrived, but the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium term, and the cost support is insufficient [1][20] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of L [6900 - 7100] [20] PP - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: The upstream device maintenance intensity has increased, but the demand is facing high destocking pressure at the end of the "Silver October". The oil price may continue to fall in the medium term, and the cost support of oil - based production is insufficient [1][25] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Low - valuation support, but single - product losses are increasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The export volume in September maintained a high growth rate, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting during the Indian policy window period. New production capacity has been basically released this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the upstream marginal devices can reduce production beyond expectations to alleviate the oversupply contradiction [1][29] - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango structure. The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Short - term lightly participate in rebounds. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The supply side has seen a continuous reduction in the operating load of domestic and foreign devices. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The oil price has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the rebound height may be limited [1][31] - Strategy: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to arrange short positions at high prices, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding downstream processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of PX [6530 - 6630] [31][32] PTA - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: A new device is about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity is expected to increase. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The internal upward driving force is limited in the short term, and it follows the oil price fluctuations [2][34] - Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions. Look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding TA processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of TA [4550 - 4630] [2][35] Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. New devices are being put into production, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The terminal consumption has improved in the short term, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][37] - Strategy: Close short - term long positions and look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [4050 - 4120] [2][38] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the port basis is still weak. The supply side has a certain pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of seasonal production reduction of gas - based methanol in the southwest region and the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions". The demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak and stable [2][41] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously (take profits in batches at low prices), look for opportunities to arrange long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the range of MA [2210 - 2260] [2][43] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Main Logic: The supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to return to a high level. The domestic agricultural demand has slightly improved, and the export is still good. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the cost support still exists. However, the winter agricultural demand and export may have limited positive effects [3][45] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, and lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1625 - 1650] [3][47] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: Geopolitical sanctions risks have been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The demand is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather, but the supply is sufficient [6] - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned in the text Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: It follows the cost - side oil price correction. The supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose, and the valuation is relatively high [6] - Strategy: Buy put options [6] Glass - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: After the festival, the enterprise inventory has increased counter - seasonally for three consecutive weeks, and the market has turned into a contango structure. The domestic demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure [6] - Strategy: In the short term, rely on the 5 - day moving average for short - term long positions, and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [6] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: It rebounds following the black building materials sector. The factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is expected to increase [6] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Continue to hold long positions in the alkali - glass spread [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Suggested [6] Core Views - Steel: There is a game between macro expectations and real supply - demand. Industry's weak reality has limited improvement. Short - term steel prices will maintain a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has improved, and prices have risen slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply growth expectations are deepening. Future steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand and pressure on prices [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and the supply of coking coal is recovering slowly. The supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased, and the supply of coking coal is still tight [4]. - Thermal Coal: The cost of coal transportation has increased, and the coal price in the production area has weakened. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the supply pattern will remain loose in the long - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,305 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel trading was generally weak, and prices made up for yesterday's increase. Building material inventory is being destocked, iron - making water production is gradually decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices continued to rise. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 892,000 tons, a 22.19% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.668 million tons (12 transactions), an 87.42% increase from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 1.158 million tons). The current steel mill production cuts are limited, and iron - making water production remains high, ensuring a certain level of ore consumption. In the future, steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways - with - a - downward - bias approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The second - round price increase of coke has fully landed, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the production of some local mines is still low. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1,130 - 1,140 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, supply is gradually recovering. The demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries is okay, and long - term contract customers' shipments are stable. Most coal mines have balanced production and sales, and the pit - mouth coal price is rising. At ports, inventory has reached a historical high, inquiry enthusiasm has declined, downstream demand is low, and prices are being pressured, resulting in low trading activity. The import market is running steadily with a downward bias [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested due to the severe lack of futures liquidity [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

(原油) 昨日布伦特12合约涨0.09%，有消息称本周日0PEC+会议将决定在12月进一步增产，此前原油因俄罗 斯制裁升级及中美贸易谈判积极信号而引发的乐观情绪受到抑制。原油市场中期供需宽松压力不 变，且考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和限制了地缘犹动的影响上限，我们认为短期原油震荡偏强、 但反弹高度亦受限,策略方面再次关注原油空头逢高入场与虚值看涨期权相结合的组合。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续下跌。周末中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,短期风险偏好向好, 贯金属或将构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳后参与机会。本周重点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领 导人峰会。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (锌) 外盘低库存，伦锌继续偏强运行，锌锭现货出口窗口打开，国内贸易商和炼厂积极寻求出口，外盘 带动内盘跟涨。国内炼厂冬储在即,海外炼厂利润修复后存增产预期，11月内外矿TC齐转降，四季 度沪锌不做空头配置。短期消费偏弱，反弹动力来自出口和成本支撑，沪锌上方暂看2.3万元/吨压 力位。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，在中美商务谈判乐观气氛引导下，内外铜价逼近纪录位置。同时，联储再 次兑现降息动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the supply pressure of domestic polyethylene remained, with total production increasing year-on-year and decreasing month-on-month, and LLDPE showing double growth. The inventory was differentiated between upstream and downstream, with production enterprise inventory expanding and social inventory decreasing but with slow digestion. Import prices were differentiated, the quantity decreased, and the profit margins varied greatly. Downstream demand recovered less than expected, cost support was limited, and profits were under pressure. The market was dominated by supply and demand [4]. - In October, the supply pressure of domestic polyethylene is expected to increase, while demand may experience moderate growth with limited increase due to macro - economic uncertainties. The inventory pressure may ease from mid - to late October, and the market is likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and the specific trend depends on downstream demand release and new capacity commissioning progress [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **Supply Pressure in September and October**: In September, the total domestic polyethylene production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, with LLDPE showing double growth. The total production in September was 270,648 tons, a decrease of 12,067 tons from the previous month and an increase of 41,672 tons from the same period last year. LLDPE production in September was 125,520 tons, an increase of 653 tons from the previous month and 27,387 tons from the same period last year. In October, the supply pressure is expected to increase due to fewer planned maintenance of devices, restart of previously maintained devices, and new capacity commissioning [7][9]. - **Inventory Situation**: In late September, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises increased, with the total reaching 458,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons. The inventory of coal - based enterprises was 68,300 tons, and that of two - oil enterprises was 390,000 tons. The social inventory decreased, with the total at 534,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,200 tons. It is expected that the inventory pressure may ease from mid - to late October [12][13][14]. - **Import Situation**: In September, the import prices of polyethylene were regionally differentiated, with most major regions' LLDPE prices falling month - on - month. The import quantity continued to decline, with the import volume in August being 950,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 156,900 tons. The import profit margins of different varieties varied significantly [16][17][18]. Demand Side - **Demand in September**: In September, the overall downstream开工率 of polyethylene was 42.57%, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises increased, indicating increased raw material stocking willingness. However, the overall demand intensity did not meet expectations, and the market was in a weak balance [21][22]. - **Demand Outlook in October**: In October, the demand is in the traditional peak season with release potential, such as increased demand for packaging films due to Double Eleven and for agricultural films due to cooling in the north. But due to macro - economic uncertainties, downstream enterprises are cautious, and demand is expected to grow moderately with limited increase [5][23]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: In September, the cost of oil - based polyethylene decreased month - on - month to 7,548.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.64 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based polyethylene increased slightly to 6,410.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.19 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Profit**: In September, the profits of both oil - based and coal - based polyethylene production enterprises declined. The profit of oil - based enterprises was - 289.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.71 yuan/ton, and the profit of coal - based enterprises was 764.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15.25 yuan/ton [28]. - **Price Difference**: In September, the price difference between polyethylene and related varieties was differentiated. The average price difference between PE - PVC:01 contract was 2,298.82 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.44 yuan/ton, while the average price difference between PE - PP:01 contract was 275.23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15.25 yuan/ton [29]. Summary - In September, the domestic polyethylene market was in a weak balance. Supply pressure remained, inventory was differentiated, import quantity decreased, downstream demand recovered moderately, cost support was limited, and profits were under pressure. The market was mainly dominated by supply and demand [32].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]

转自：新华财经 2025年10月份，国内猪肉进口冻品价格整体呈现缓跌的走势。据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年10月24日， 进口前肘成交均价在17416.67元／吨，较月初下降1.88%；进口颈骨成交均价在9500元／吨，较月初持 平；进口肋排成交均价在33287.18元／吨，较月初下降2.21%；进口猪头成交均价在10600元／吨，较月 初下降5.50%。 导致月内进口猪肉价格下跌的原因主要在于国产鲜品及冻品猪肉价格的持续下降。后期来看，国产猪肉 价格仍处于偏低水平，11-12月份进口猪肉价格难有好转。 后期来看，供应方面，四季度猪肉及猪副进口量有限，且当下港口库存量较小，进口商销售压力不大， 存一定挺价意向。需求方面，11-12月份为猪肉的消费旺季，国产猪肉价格有小幅反弹的可能，但幅度 有限，整体仍处于低位水平。这意味着进口产品价格优势较小，下游客户采购进口冻品的意向薄弱，进 口商销售压力较大，部分或存降价走量的意向。 综合供需来看，预计2025年11-12月份，进口猪肉仍或维持下降态势，但幅度有限，价格跌幅并不明 显。 （作者：马丽媛，卓创资讯分析师） 编辑：吴郑思 具体来看，10月份国产鲜品猪肉价格快速 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 地缘与宏观利好释放，油价反弹。地缘方面，欧美新增对俄罗斯制裁，印 | | | | 度或减少进口俄罗斯原油，油价反弹；宏观方面，中美在马来西亚达成"非 | | 原油 | 谨慎看多 | 常实质性的框架协议"；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期， | | ★ | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量 | | | | 变化。策略：空单持有，买入看涨期权控制风险，同时买入看跌期权。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气反弹。成本端油价受地缘扰动反弹，成本端利好；供 | | LPG | | 需基本面改善，供给量小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 库存端，港口库存下降。策略：地缘驱动价格反弹，买入看跌期权等待风 | | | | 险释放。 | | | | 现货跟涨，基差走强，跟随成本端弱势反弹。社会去化缓慢，10 月进口到 | | L | | 港较多，后市仍存增加预期；广西石化 70 万吨装置计划本月底投产叠加 | | ★ | 空头反弹 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with continued destocking trends and aluminum prices breaking through 21,000 RMB/ton [1][8] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing economic growth and a favorable policy environment [13] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [13] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 24, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,856.5 USD/ton, up 315.0 RMB/ton week-on-week, a 1.5% increase [17] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closed at 21,225.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 315.0 RMB/ton [23] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 thousand tons month-on-month [55] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.604 million tons, down 13.5 thousand tons month-on-month [55] 3. Inventory - As of October 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 618,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 9,000 tons [9] - The domestic aluminum rod inventory increased to 145,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3,000 tons [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2025 [7] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.00 RMB for 2025 [7] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.13 RMB for 2025 [7] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic supply remains stable, while overseas supply disruptions have occurred, such as Century Aluminum's production halt in Iceland [9] - The demand side shows a mixed picture, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]