gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价震荡收阳，伦铜库存降至10.7万吨。美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效应，两市合计库存约 30万吨级，与年初相比减少4-5万吨左右（且仍有相当部分海运在途）。英美达成贸易协定，欧盟 与日本暂未敲定。沪铜最后交易日现铜78645元，上海升水缩至30元，广东平水，洋山铜溢价降至 39美元，国内社库小增至14.77万吨。空头择机换月至2508，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库下降0.2万吨，铝棒增0.4万吨，去库有放缓迹象。近期强现实弱 预期造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，不过需警惕指数持仓激增至60万手后出现变盘，沪铝完成 对前期缺口的回补后技术面无强烈向上驱动,关注淡季负反馈何时兑现以及月差收窄后的远月活空 机会。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金维持震荡， 保太ADC12报价维持在19600元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较 好的做缩价差机会，但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右波动空间不足,谈李阶段价差如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 (氧化铝) (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅回落，布伦特08合约 ...

*业期现日报 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯华东现货价 | 7920.0 | 8035.0 | -115.0 | -1.4% | | | EB2507 | 7589.0 | 7640.0 | -51.0 | -0.7% | | | EB2508 | 7482.0 | 7526.0 | -44.0 | -0.6% | 元/吨 | | EB基差 | 331.0 | 395.0 | -64.0 | -16.2% | | | EB月差 | 107.0 | 114.0 | -7.0 | -6.1% | | 本乙烯海外报价&进口利润 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯CFR中国 | 930.0 | 942.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | 美元/吨 | | 苯乙烯FOB韩国 | 920.0 | 932.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | | | 苯乙烯 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pricing strategy of N134 carbon black is influenced by market competition and supply-demand relationships, with a focus on product quality, pricing, and service in a competitive market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Competition - The carbon black market is highly competitive with numerous suppliers, primarily concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - Suppliers compete on product quality, price, and service, as the quality of carbon black is crucial for the product quality of partnering companies [2]. Group 2: Demand Influence - The demand for carbon black mainly comes from industries such as rubber, plastics, and inks, with varying demand levels globally [2]. - Domestic market development speed and demand volume determine the long-term price trends of carbon black, while international supply-demand relationships affect short-term price fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies - Suppliers adjust prices based on market demand and supply conditions, increasing prices during high demand and potentially lowering them to capture market share during low demand [3]. - Different pricing strategies are developed based on product quality and added value, with high-quality products commanding higher prices [3]. - Raw material and transportation costs significantly impact carbon black pricing, with fluctuations in the prices of natural rubber and petroleum directly affecting carbon black prices [3]. Group 4: Complexity of Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy for N134 carbon black is complex and dynamic, requiring suppliers to closely monitor market changes and adjust prices accordingly [3]. - Suppliers must also consider raw material and transportation costs to ensure price rationality and maximize profits [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to move up with the cost center in the short - term as international crude oil rises significantly, new PTA plants are put into operation and increase load gradually, domestic supply is expected to rise, and there is an expectation of polyester load reduction during the terminal seasonal off - season [6]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to rebound and repair in the short - term as the cost side moves up, some maintenance devices restart, imports may be affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a strong expectation of turning from weak to strong in supply - demand [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Price Movement**: Due to the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the US, and the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have risen significantly. As of June 13, the Asian PX closing price was at 854 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 36 US dollars/ton from May 30. However, the absolute price increase of PX was less than that of crude oil because multiple PX plants restarted and the downstream polyester performance was not ideal [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 3.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 75.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. It is expected that next week's PX output will increase slightly compared with this week [20]. - **Processing Fee**: As of June 13, the PX - naphtha price spread was 233.3 US dollars/ton, down 24.5 US dollars/ton from June 6. With the rapid recovery of the supply side, the PX - naphtha price spread declined. It is expected that the processing fee will continue to decline next week [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: Affected by the sharp rise of international crude oil due to the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, the absolute price of PTA followed the cost increase. As of June 13, the PTA spot price reached 5015 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 221 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA reached 83.25%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. In June, it is expected that the PTA capacity utilization rate will increase significantly as some devices have maintenance expectations and some are planned to restart [31]. - **Processing Fee**: This week, the PTA processing fee continued to rise. However, with new device production and the restart of previous maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase continuously. With poor terminal performance and strong polyester production reduction atmosphere, it is expected that the PTA processing fee will decline slightly next week [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In June, with the co - existence of PTA device maintenance and restart and the expectation of polyester load reduction, the PTA supply - demand will shift from destocking to a tight balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: This week, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol bottomed out and stabilized. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, with the expectation of supply reduction and cost support, MEG slightly rose. As of June 13, the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol price was 4426 yuan/ton, and the South China market delivery price was 4530 yuan/ton [41]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol was 55.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.71%. The output of domestic factories has increased this week as some coal - chemical factories restarted and some integrated maintenance devices resumed work [42]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.38 tons, an increase of 1.67 tons compared with June 9. As of June 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 9.88 tons [47]. - **Production Profit**: The profits of all Chinese ethylene glycol process samples declined across the board. As of June 13, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 87.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.02 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 72.85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.88 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 88.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. In June, it is expected that the monthly polyester output will decline significantly as supply reduction may be greater than increase due to poor demand and fewer days [53][58]. - **Product Inventory**: This week, the overall polyester production and sales were sluggish, and the industry inventory slightly increased [63]. - **Cash Flow**: Entering the traditional off - season, affected by weak terminal consumption, the polyester cash flow may continue to be compressed [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of June 12, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.02%, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 9.91 days, a decrease of 0.51 days compared with last week [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Oil prices have risen significantly, but the absolute price increase of PX is less than that of crude oil [74]. - **Supply Side**: PTA production increased significantly this week, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate increased [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate declined slightly, and the weaving starting rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the MEG port inventory in East China increased [74].

1. Tin Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Electrowinning Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - **New Energy Material Price**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Price**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265600 | 265300 | 300 | 0.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 950 | 1100 | -150 | -13.64% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 266100 | 265800 | 300 | 0.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -82.50 | -75.10 | -7.40 | -9.85% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口密亏 | -10937.43 | -9835.62 | -1101.81 | -11.20% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]