Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices surged to a four-year high of $1280 per ounce, driven primarily by speculative trading and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs warns that the current speculative frenzy in platinum is unlikely to be sustainable, predicting a price correction once speculative interest wanes [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported a projected supply deficit of approximately 1 million ounces (about 31 tons) for the year, equating to nearly 20% of annual mineral production [1] Group 2: Chinese Market Sensitivity - The Chinese market accounts for about 60% of global new platinum production, with buyers exhibiting high price sensitivity—buying heavily at low prices and withdrawing quickly at high prices [3] - Nearly 50% of China's platinum imports are driven by price-sensitive jewelry and investment demand, which surged following a price drop in April [3] - The recent price rebound since mid-May has suppressed Chinese jewelry and investment demand, confirming the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Demand - The demand for platinum is facing structural decline due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China, which is reducing the long-term need for platinum in automotive catalysts [4] - The peak scale of gasoline vehicles in China is expected to exert structural pressure on platinum demand, while Western markets are not expected to provide significant positive balance for platinum prices [4] Group 4: Global Supply Outlook - Global platinum supply is expected to remain stable or grow moderately unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, as South Africa accounts for about 70% of global platinum production [5] - South African platinum group metal producers project a moderate supply increase of 12% by 2025, although operational disruptions remain a significant risk [6] - Since March 2024, load shedding in South Africa has nearly ceased, with low risks of reoccurring disruptive power outages, although labor strikes still pose a threat to production [6]

Group 1 - The price of platinum-rhodium wire has recently surpassed 406 yuan per gram, marking a 12% increase from 360 yuan over the past three months [1][3] - The demand for platinum-rhodium alloys is driven by their essential role in automotive catalytic converters and the glass fiber industry, with increased usage due to stricter emissions standards for fuel vehicles [3][5] - The global supply of rhodium is heavily concentrated in South Africa, where power crises have led to the shutdown of several smelting plants, tightening the supply chain and driving prices up [3][5] Group 2 - The current price of 406 yuan per gram is 35% higher than the same period in 2023, with downstream glass manufacturers just beginning to adjust their purchase prices [5] - Technical analysis indicates that the price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting potential volatility ahead [5] - A strategy of selling in three batches is recommended, with the first batch being 30% of the total volume to secure initial profits, while the remaining 70% should be monitored for further price movements [7]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 1.68%至 61680 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/ 吨至 60500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/吨至 58900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 300 元/吨至 60900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 300 元/吨至 66050 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存减少 110 吨至 32837 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格有止跌迹象。供应端，周度产量环比增加，6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求 端，据各家初步排产数据来看增量不显。库存端，周度库存重回增加，下游小幅减少，上游和中间 环节有所增加。综合来看，需要考虑的是，一方面，当前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作，同时，从 国内排产来看，6 月过剩格局将进一步扩大；另一方面，锂矿的价格表现相对滞后，如果锂盐价格 快速走强，生产和套保动力将再次显现，对价格进一步产生压力，就目前来看，锂矿库存已经得到 一定消化。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for asphalt has shown significant activity, with the main contract opening at 3493.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3532.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.44% [1] - As of June 10, the total shipment volume of asphalt from 54 domestic enterprises was 434,000 tons, representing a week-on-week decrease of 4.0%. Notably, the North China and East China regions experienced significant changes in shipment volumes [1] - The total inventory level of asphalt in domestic refineries is at 30.29%, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%, while the social inventory rate is at 34.80%, with a slight increase of 0.09% [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that asphalt futures prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, with supply remaining at a low to medium level and demand aligning with seasonal trends [2] - Current operating rates for asphalt enterprises are at a relatively high level for the year, but still low compared to previous years, indicating a subdued overall demand [2] - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are expected to influence asphalt prices, with recommendations for a cautious trading approach focusing on market oscillations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [4] Core View of the Report - In the short term, macro disturbances weaken, trading focus returns to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand shows a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expected to expand. It is predicted that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking obvious upward drivers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the trading focus of the black - series market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand. The apparent demand of finished products shows off - season characteristics. Carbon elements continue to give benefits to iron elements. The profit of blast furnaces has not been significantly compressed due to the decline in finished product prices but has instead expanded. The valley - electricity of short - process steelmaking is in a large - scale loss, and the demand for iron ore remains resilient [3] Supply - The shipment of foreign mines increased slightly this period. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with a significant increase in Australian shipments, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. Coupled with the fiscal - year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current level of steel mill profitability is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend at a high level, but the downward slope will be relatively gentle, and high demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestic demand is still relatively high, and port inventories are continuously decreasing in the short term. As the arrival volume increases, it is expected that port inventories will accumulate slightly or remain relatively stable in the later stage. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the expectation of restocking is weak [3]

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 11 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.2%至 79290 元/吨。中美 经贸磋商机制首次会议进入第二天，尚未取得任何突破，但美方信息偏 于乐观。市场预期美国将在对钢铝收关税后对铜也加征关税推动铜流向 美国，LME 铜库存过去三个月里减少了一半，美国 COMEX 期铜较 LME 期铜的升水达到每吨 1067 美元，但近期市场对于纽伦套利交易兴趣有 所下降。国内现货市场，铜价震荡上涨，下游消费难有明显提升，但社 库维持低位运行，现货升水于平水附近拉锯，BACK 月差收敛，持货商 低价出货意愿有限。铜矿冶炼 TC 负值低位对供应前景带来持续压力， 中美经贸谈判带来希望，近期国内经济数据继续萎靡，旺季转淡以及低 库存等因素交织，铜价或继续维持高位震荡运行。技术上看，沪铜短期 维持偏强震荡，整体运行于 77500-80000 之间，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 11 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 1.25%至 20250 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of essential consumer goods in Guangzhou was sufficient, with slight price declines observed for meat, eggs, and vegetables compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Vegetable Market - The trading volume of vegetables in May saw a slight decrease, with an average daily trading volume down by 3.24% compared to April [2] - The average retail price of 32 major vegetables was 4.28 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting a decrease of 0.81% month-on-month [2] - Among the 32 vegetables, 18 saw price declines while 14 experienced price increases, with notable decreases in prices for white bean pods (down 8.90%), cucumbers (down 5.26%), and green pointed peppers (down 3.38%) [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs increased by 0.36% month-on-month, while pig prices continued to decline, down by 1.73%, leading to a sustained decrease in pork retail prices for three consecutive months [3] - The average retail price for four types of pork was 20.75 yuan per 500 grams, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous month [3] - The retail price of eggs was 5.97 yuan per 500 grams, down by 0.67%, while the price of light chickens rose slightly by 0.65% to 20.07 yuan per 500 grams [4] Group 3: Other Consumer Goods - The average retail price of five types of aquatic products was 13.76 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting an increase of 1.46% month-on-month [4] - The retail prices of various rice types showed mixed results, with prices for japonica rice rising by 0.32% while late indica rice decreased by 0.62% [4] - The retail price of 5 liters of refined peanut oil was 153.64 yuan per barrel, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The price trend for vegetables in Guangzhou is expected to show a slight rebound after initially declining, with projections indicating a small increase in the near term [5] - Overall, the prices of live pigs and pork have been on a downward trend throughout the year, with expectations of continued weak performance in meat prices as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches [5]

市场快讯 -- 巴西制糖进程加速 郑糖盘中跌破支撑 5月29日,巴西甘蔗和生物能源行业协会(UNICA)在报告中表示,2025年5月上半月, 巴西中南部压榨进程同比下降(但降幅较上份双周报告相比有所收窄),期间共压榨 4232万吨甘蔗,制糖240.8万吨。而以上两组数据在2024/25榨季同期则达到4507万吨和 258.4万吨,同比分别下降6.09%与6.8%。从2025/25榨季至今的累计数据来看,当前巴西中 南部已累计压榨7671.4万吨甘蔗并生产出389.8万吨糖,同比分别下降20.24%和22.68%。 但在6月10日(周二)S&P Global Commodity Insights发布的一项对20位分析师的调查显示, 巴西中南部地区5月下半月甘蔗压榨量预计较上年同期增长1.2%,至4591万吨。这意味看 巴西食糖主产区在摆脱了降水犹动后,整体的食糖生产进程出现明显提速,且此轮预测 的追赶速度超出市场预期。在此消息的抗动下,全球食糖预期供应压力再度增加,登加 市场对印度和泰国2025/26榨李的食糖产量也均抱有增产预期,郑糖于今日上午跌破5700 元/吨支撑。 | | | | | UNICA:202 ...

（阎晓宇） 本周多晶硅有一定的成交量，价格再度出现下滑。n型复投料成交价格区间为3.50-3.80万元/吨，成 交均价3.67万元/吨，环比下降2.13%。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.40-3.50万元/吨，成交均价为3.45万 元/吨，环比持平。p型多晶硅成交价格区间为2.80-3.30万元/吨，成交均价为3.07万元/吨，环比下降 1.92%。 本周行业成交均价出现下降。具体来看，一线大厂及颗粒硅价格较为稳定，部分企业的混包料或搭 配售卖产品价格下滑较为严重。造成本周价格下跌的主要原因仍为需求萎缩。企业在价格持续下行周期 销售压力较大，部分企业迫于出货压力或检修压力跟随主流价格跌价出货。目前非头部企业的低价库存 基本售空，仅剩少量产线转换中的开炉料。后续价格走势需密切关注下游企业排产和采购节奏。就目前 情况看暂未得到改善，本月硅片端开工将较上月有轻微下滑，故下游企业仍以谨慎采购性价比优先的产 品为主。 截至目前，多晶硅在产企业数量为11家，基本全部处于降负荷运作状态。6月多晶硅企业提升开工 率的传言较多，经了解后多为产线切换或产能置换，6月份整体产出基本持稳，并未增加供应压力。7月 多晶硅企业新增2家企业 ...

本周工业硅现货价格持稳。过去一周（2025年6月5日-11日），主力合约收盘价从7135元/吨震荡波 动至7560元/吨，涨幅为5.96%。全国综合价格和各地区综合价格持稳。FOB价格持稳。 工业硅现货价格持稳，目前工业硅基本面变化较小，盘面有一定幅度的反弹，市场情绪稍有好转， 但下游采购仍偏谨慎，按需采购为主。供应端，进入丰水期，南方部分硅厂开始复产，叠加新增产能投 放和前期停产产能复产，供应增加。需求端，有机硅单体厂开工处于高位，对工业硅需求小幅增加；多 晶硅厂近期开工基本稳定，对工业硅需求持稳；铝合金厂按需采购工业硅，对工业硅需求持稳，工业硅 三大下游总需求增加。价格方面，有机硅单体厂市场供应较为充足，有一定库存，但下游需求疲软，价 格重心下移；多晶硅现货价格下跌。 近期工业硅仓单流入市场，仓单库存少量减少，但整体库存仍处高位，对现货市场有一定压力。进 入丰水期电价下调，南方成本下移，下方成本支撑进一步减弱，但目前价格已低于成本，继续下跌空间 不大，预计将维持底部区间震荡。 （李敏） ...