Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the macro level shows a weakening signal, the fundamental contradiction is weak, and the domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral. Attention should be paid to the possible slight increase in inventory, which may suppress the absolute price [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, there is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the inflection point of accelerated accumulation is expected to appear in early June. Attention should be paid to the node of inventory change from decline to accumulation, and short positions are recommended to be held. The domestic - foreign positive spread can be partially closed at an appropriate time [2]. - For nickel, the supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - For lead, the price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply is expected to decrease in May. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16700 next week [6]. - For tin, affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state currently, but there is large potential supply pressure in the future. In the long - term, the price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the price falls this week. In the short term, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline after fluctuations next week. In the medium - long term, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decline significantly, the price will still fluctuate weakly [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 30, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 101, and the LME inventory decreased by 2500 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Overseas, a large amount of Russian copper is extracted from LME warehouses, and the LME cash - 3M spread widens. Domestically, the cross - month spread and spot premium remain stable, and the downstream demand may weaken. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Kamora Copper Mine, which is expected to resume in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 1, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 16856 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2225 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic TC rises, and the smelting output in June is expected to increase by 25,000 tons compared with May. The domestic demand elasticity is limited, and the overseas demand recovers slightly. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the LME inventory declines slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 550, the spot import return decreased by 874.57, and the LME inventory decreased by 762 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coil, 304 hot - rolled coil, 201 cold - rolled coil, 430 cold - rolled coil, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2375 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply side has problems such as raw material shortage and low profit, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak overall demand [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot import return decreased by 1720.64, the spot export return increased by 2414.63, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is limited by the slowdown of the electronics and photovoltaic industries [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 615 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market start - up rate increases slightly. The demand from the organic silicon industry increases slightly, but the overall demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level, and there is large potential supply pressure in the future [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 427 [14]. - **Market Situation**: The price falls this week. The downstream demand is weak, the supply side has production resumption and reduction situations, and the inventory accumulation speed slows down. In the short term, the price is expected to decline after fluctuations [14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1235元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1199元/吨，基差为36元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存162.43万吨，较前一周减少3.13%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 纯碱早报 2025-6-3 | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙河低端价 | 主力基差 | | ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed on a significant production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for July during an online meeting on May 31 [1][2] - Concerns over multiple oil-producing countries accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $60.79 and $63.90 per barrel, respectively [1][2] - The overall decline in international oil prices this year has been approximately 15%, raising concerns about the future performance of the oil extraction industry [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil market is currently oversupplied by 2.2 million barrels per day, suggesting that price adjustments may be necessary to restore balance [3] - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares noted that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could drop by about 10%, potentially reaching $53 to $55 per barrel [4] - The low oil prices pose financial risks to oil producers worldwide, particularly affecting U.S. shale oil producers who may struggle to respond to calls for increased drilling [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant short-selling activity by hedge funds, with Brent crude short positions reaching their highest level since October of the previous year, indicating a bearish sentiment towards oil prices [3]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have collectively increased their short positions in Brent crude by over 16,000 contracts, bringing the total to 130,000 contracts, the highest in eight months [3]. - WTI crude's short positions have also risen to a three-week high, reflecting a broader trend of bearish bets on oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The anticipated OPEC+ meeting, where discussions about potential production increases are expected, is a key driver behind the surge in short positions. There are rumors of a third significant production increase, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [3][4]. - The potential easing of sanctions on Iran could allow Iranian oil back into the market, further increasing supply and contributing to bearish sentiment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The short-selling trend reflects a short-term bet on OPEC+ production increases and the return of Iranian oil, while also indicating a longer-term market view on the pace of global economic recovery [4]. - If global demand does not keep pace with increased supply, oil prices could face significant downward pressure, but if demand rebounds, the impact of increased supply may be mitigated [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on supply-demand balance and macroeconomic cycles rather than short-term market sentiment, as these factors are critical in determining oil price trends [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that high short positions can lead to price rebounds if production increases do not materialize as expected or if global demand exceeds forecasts [4].

钢材月报： 需求或超预期回落 钢材维持下行趋势 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/5/30 观点摘要 【供需概况】：5月份上半月行情维持清明后的震荡区间，波动不大，下半月持续下行，突破前期低点。从宏 观层面看，今年以来的降准降息、刺激消费等对黑色系提振有限，财政政策的发力仍未出现。产业方面，房地 产延续疲态，"先化债、后投资"导致基建新项目数量有限，总体需求强度不及预期。钢厂利润在双焦持续下行 让利下保持了较佳状态，高铁水反映出生产积极性较高。出口继续保持增量，钢坯出口大增，缓解了供应压力 。 【策略建议】：虽然目前从数据上看钢材供需保持了平衡，但这一平衡是比较脆弱的。需求存在超季节性回落 可能，或导致供需向宽松方向发展。同时随着铁水产量见顶回落，原料端压力或进一步上升，带来成本下移的 负反馈逻辑，这一现象已在双焦上体现，后期随着铁矿石发运和到港的放量，不排除在铁矿上重演这一逻辑。 目前黑色产业链各环节的利润状况并不支持充分的去产量，下行趋势仍然没有 ...

纯碱供应仍处于过剩状态，需要上游低开工来维持供需平衡，中上游显性库存处于较高水平。当前联碱 法和氨碱法生产利润均处于低位，边际装置按现金流成本算在盈亏平衡附近。 产能继续投放，供应维持增长 供应方面，国内纯碱处于产能投放周期之中。本轮纯碱投产周期始于2023年，2024年新投放产能250万 吨，2025年一季度新投产能90万吨，后续还有405万吨产能待投，整体2025年有效产能增速预计在5.6% 左右。2024年7月起，纯碱生产利润迅速恶化，2024年下半年纯碱开工率环比下行，2025年1—2月开工 率维持中性水平，3月远兴能源以及河南金山集中检修，纯碱开工率降至低位，4月装置回归，开工率环 比恢复。5月计划检修较多，包括江苏实联、河南金山和青海昆仑等，一些成本较高的装置维持降负的 状态。 进出口方面，2024年8月起，由于国内纯碱转为过剩，价格下行，纯碱出口窗口逐步打开，部分纯碱生 产企业也积极开拓海外销售市场，纯碱转为净出口状态；2025年一季度，纯碱净出口量维持在很高的水 平，后续预计也会继续维持。 重碱增长乏力，轻碱缺乏亮点 光伏玻璃处于触底反弹的阶段。2025年3月开始，光伏玻璃产线开始继续投产，前 ...

| 因素 | 陛盾 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、国家统计局公布数据显示，4月份，我国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3%。较3月份加快0.4个百分点，以浅备制造业、高技术制 | | 宏观&行业 | 中性 | 造业为代表的新动能行业利润增长较快,而纺织服装行业4月累计利润同比下滑 15.4%。 | | | 偏空 | 2、近日，美国联邦法院裁定暂停特朗普关税政策，而后特朗普表示将上诉，关税政策暂时恢复，由于关税措施反复变化、难以为棉 | | | | 纺织市场提供稳定的交易环境，业者暂保持谨慎观望心态。 | | | | 1、国际： 截至5月25日当周，美国棉花种植率为52%，前一周为40%，去年同期为57%，五年均值为56%；棉花现盛率为3%，上年同 | | | | 期为4%。五年均值为4%。美国土壤摘情受降雨继续好转利空美国棉布。巴西方面。2024/25年度巴西棉花产量预估为390.48万吨,同比 | | | | 增加5.5%,USDA的预估值更为乐观,高出10-15万吨,近期开始逐步收获。 | | 供应 | 偏空 | 2、国内：全疆棉苗开始逐步现蕾，新棉长势良好、三方调 ...

瑞达期货研究院 联系电话：059586778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.05.30」 豆类市场周报 研究员 ： 张昕 期货从业资格证号 F03109641 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0018457 u 豆一： 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周豆一主力2507合约下跌，收跌1.32%，报收4117元/吨。 u 行情展望：国产豆方面，主产区农户余粮不多，基层优质豆源较少，基层农户挺价心理较强，同时储 备大豆发放节奏放缓，产区大豆价格维持偏强运行。但随着气温升高，豆制品终端消费需求表现平淡， 以及预计大豆到港量显著增加，供应充裕。因此，在供需双弱格局下，预计国产大豆震荡运行为主。 u 策略建议：供需双弱，观望为主。 「 周度要点小结」 u 豆二： 来源：瑞达期货研究院 4 u 行情回顾：本周豆二主力2509合约下跌，收跌0.34%，收报3559元/吨。 u 行情展望：市场主要聚焦美豆种植季天气变化。美豆进入播种期，美国农业部的作物周报显示种植进 度加快， ...

华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/29 一、螺纹供应 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 | | | 螺纹产量本周小幅回落，整体维持低位波动，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 维持在当前水平，持续关注钢厂产量与利润的边际变化。 | | | 需求 | | | 表观需求本周保持稳定，需求逐渐进入淡季，预计仍将会承压，水泥熟料产 | | | | | 能利用率维持在高位，关注需求端近期表现。 | | | | 库存 | | | 螺纹整体库存小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库23.17万吨，钢厂库存去库1.3万 | | | | | | 吨，社会库存本周去库5.97万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 3 | | | 成本 | | | 据估算即时高炉成本在2770元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2850元/吨左右。 | | | 基差与价差 | | | 期货持续回落，现货跟随期货下跌，基差有所走扩。 | | 螺纹 | 总结 | | | 本周黑色大幅回落，需求逐渐走进淡季，预计有所承压，宏观环境不确定性 | | | | | | 较强，市场投机 ...