Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is facing demand pressure in 2024, but policies promoting childbirth subsidies are expected to boost consumption recovery [1][4] Group 1: Performance Review - The dairy industry is experiencing weak recovery in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to external demand pressures and inventory destocking [2] - Major companies like Yili and Mengniu are controlling shipments to destock, leading to revenue declines for most companies in 2024 [2] - Yili and Mengniu have taken steps to clean up their balance sheets by recognizing goodwill impairment, which is expected to lead to improved performance in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Operational Situation - Milk prices have been on a downward trend since 2022, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory by 4.5% to 6.3 million heads and a 2.8% decrease in raw milk production to 41.61 million tons in 2024 [3] - The overall gross margin of the industry has improved due to falling milk prices, with companies maintaining cautious promotional strategies and reducing sales expense ratios [3] - The profitability of major companies is expected to improve in Q1 2025, with Yili's net profit margin exceeding market expectations after excluding one-time income [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The supply side is undergoing accelerated destocking, with continued pressure on upstream operations due to falling milk prices and rising feed costs [4] - Policies promoting childbirth subsidies are expected to enhance dairy product consumption, with companies like Feihe and Yili responding by offering product subsidies of 1.2 billion and 1.6 billion respectively [4] - The overall outlook for the industry is positive, with expectations of improved supply-demand balance and stronger performance from leading companies [4]

Core Insights - The N220 carbon black market is experiencing price volatility due to supply-demand imbalances and external factors affecting production costs and market dynamics [2][3] - The production capacity of carbon black is limited by the need for coal as a raw material, significant capital investment, and environmental regulations [2] - Demand for N220 carbon black is increasing across various industries, particularly in rubber, plastics, and inks, driven by economic growth and rising living standards [2] Supply Situation - Carbon black production is constrained by the need for substantial investment and technical support, leading to limited production capacity and output [2] - Environmental pollution concerns associated with carbon black production necessitate strict regulatory oversight, further limiting production capabilities [2] - The overall supply of carbon black is relatively limited, resulting in low supply elasticity and a fragile supply-demand balance [2] Demand Dynamics - The global rubber industry is the largest consumer of carbon black, significantly influencing market demand [2] - Different industries have varying requirements for carbon black in terms of quantity and quality, introducing uncertainty and volatility into the market [2] - The reduction of trade barriers and globalization has led to increased international demand for carbon black, impacting the supply-demand equilibrium [2] Price Volatility - The uncertainty in supply-demand conditions makes it challenging for carbon black producers to set reasonable price levels [3] - External factors such as raw material price fluctuations, technological advancements, and changes in regulations contribute to price instability [3] - Price volatility is a norm in the carbon black market, necessitating strategic responses from producers and consumers alike [3] Strategic Recommendations - Producers should conduct in-depth market demand analysis to adapt to price fluctuations and develop effective business strategies [3] - Strengthening collaboration with downstream customers is essential for producers to navigate market changes [3] - Buyers should focus on balancing quality and price during procurement to ensure suitable product acquisition [3] - Government and regulatory bodies should enhance market oversight to promote fair competition and stability in the carbon black market [3] Conclusion - The analysis of N220 carbon black pricing trends is complex and influenced by supply-demand dynamics, collaboration between producers and consumers, and regulatory guidance [3] - A stable and healthy development of the carbon black market is crucial for supporting the growth of related industries [3]

黑色产业链日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 研究员： | | --- | | 吴晓蓉 | 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/5/13 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/4/15 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3006 | 2996 | 2837 | 2947 | 10 | 169 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 14.6 | 14.3 | 14.9 | 23.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 | | FU仓单(吨) | 39620 | 44390 | 51120 | 46170 | -4770 | -11500 | | LU主力 | 3541 | 3518 | 3328 | 3393 | 23 | 213 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5. ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨，能源化工品普遍上涨，苯乙烯涨 3.05%，丁二烯橡胶涨 2.69%，纸浆涨 2.38%，燃油涨 2.36%，PTA 涨 2.11%，20 号胶涨 1.91%。黑色系涨跌不一，铁矿石涨 1.77%，螺纹钢涨 1.28%，热卷涨 1.1%。农产品多数上涨，棉花涨 1.26%，豆二涨 1.02%，棉纱涨近 1%。基本金属 涨跌不一，沪锡涨 1.33%，沪铝涨 0.91%，沪镍跌 1.26%。沪金跌 2.52%，沪银 跌 0.75%。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.54%，报 61.96 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.63%，报 64.95 美元/桶。分析师指出，OPEC+增产节奏加快及地 缘政治风险缓和共同推动油价上行，但需关注美国库存数据变化对供需平衡的 影响。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.06%报 3241.80 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.36%报 32.80 美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]

有色金属周报 20250511 宏观风险降温，金属价格震荡 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 本周（05/06-05/09）上证综指上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2%，SW 有色 指数上涨 1.57%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金下跌-1.57%，COMEX 白银下跌-1.95%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.78%、-0.52%、+0.40%、 +1.83%、-0.75%、-0.62%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 1.95%、-1.97%、-1.5%、-3.09%、-1.21%、+0.19%。 ➢ 工业金属：海外宏观方面多空交织，美国 4 月非农就业超预期和失业率稳定暂缓 衰退担忧，但一季度 GDP 年化收缩 0.3%叠加潜在关税又使经济停滞风险升高；国内 开启降准降息及公积金利率下调，宏观利好氛围不变，工业金属价格震荡。铜方面，供 应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.11 美元/干吨，周度环比减少 0.5 美元/ 干吨。Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的年中长单谈判预计将于月底正式开启，鉴于当前恶 劣的现货市场环境和严 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 9 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 2025/04/30 230 997 116753 28166 -118.83 721.42 94.0 115.0 -6.80 200150 71050 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 变 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas demand remains strong, and China's exports are at a high level. In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. - Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year-on-year. In Jan - Mar 2025, China's domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with consumption continuing to recover; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7% [3][22][87]. - Supply has increased month-on-month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Currently, hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [4][45][87]. - The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped from 50.5 in March to 49, breaking below the boom - bust line and hitting the largest decline since December 2023. The global manufacturing industry is also under pressure, with the JPMorgan Global PMI falling to 49.8%, entering the contraction range for the first time this year [4][75][88]. - There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. Relevant departments have stated that they will continue to implement crude steel production control and promote the reduction and restructuring of the steel industry, increasing market attention to industrial policies [8][78][88]. - The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may further intensify the supply - demand situation and cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [2][8][89]. Summaries by Directory Global Steel Industry Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level - In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%, but the year - on - year growth in March turned positive; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year - In Jan - Mar 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with the daily output growth rates in the past three months being - 8.1%, + 1.7%, and + 7.1% respectively, and March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with the daily consumption growth rates in the past three months being - 15.40%, + 11.0%, and + 8.40% respectively, indicating continuous consumption recovery; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7%, with the growth rate of iron ore consumption turning positive in March [22][23][87]. The impact of hurricanes and price drops has led to a significant year - on - year decline in imports - In Jan - Mar 2025, China imported 285 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 24.79 million tons compared to the same period last year, a cumulative y-o-y decrease of 8.0%. Affected by hurricanes, imports from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and India showed different trends, with overall imports in March showing a significant year - on - year decline, and the supply side contracting under the influence of hurricanes and price drops [29][30][39]. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation Shipments are continuously recovering, with a more obvious recovery in Brazil - As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Among them, shipments from Australia decreased by 434 kt year - on - year, an increase of 504 kt from the low point; shipments from Brazil increased by 367 kt year - on - year, an increase of 609 kt from the low point; non - mainstream shipments decreased by 658 kt year - on - year, showing a downward trend. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in iron ore shipments from the four major mines was 118 kt, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of the four major mines in the future [46][47][48]. Shipments are continuously recovering, and future arrivals will remain at a high level - As of May 4, the cumulative y-o-y decline in arrivals at 45 ports was 2,223 kt. Based on current shipment data, iron ore arrivals will remain at a high level in the future [49][50][57]. Domestic iron ore demand is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand situation will become looser - Domestic demand has been performing well this year, and exports have also shown strong growth. The sum of domestic demand and exports has shown an obvious recovery trend, but the growth rate has slowed down. The current hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If the hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [58][59][87]. Iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus, and uncertainties have increased significantly Domestic demand is stable, and iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus - Assuming a 0.1% y-o-y increase in domestic steel consumption and considering the impact of new production capacity on iron ore supply, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser in the future, and port inventories will remain at a relatively high level [65][66][70]. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty - Since the Trump administration restarted the trade war against China in 2025, the US has imposed multiple rounds of tariff increases on Chinese goods, which has had a significant impact on the global economy. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped significantly, and the global manufacturing industry is also under pressure. The US itself is also facing negative impacts, such as inventory shortages in retailers and a decline in freight volume in the logistics industry [74][75][88]. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation - Relevant departments have stated that they will implement policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, including continuous crude steel production control, which has increased market attention to industrial policies. If the policy is implemented, domestic iron ore demand will decline, although overseas iron ore demand may increase to some extent, but overall, it will have a negative impact on iron ore premium capabilities [78][79][88]. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline - With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [8][81][89]. Conclusion - Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of short - selling iron ore at high prices during the production capacity expansion cycle [86][87][90]