Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Sideways [1] - Copper: Sideways [1] - Aluminum: Sideways [1] - Alumina: Sideways [1] - Zinc: Sideways [1] - Nickel: Sideways [1] - Industrial Silicon: Sideways [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] - Rebar: Sideways [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1] - Ferro - Silicon: Sideways [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways [1] - Palm Oil: Sideways [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Corn: Bearish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Pulp: Sideways [1] - Logs: Bullish [1] - Live Hogs: Bearish [1] - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel Oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - Natural Rubber: Sideways [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - Fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bullish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - Refinery Gasoline: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - Caustic Soda: Bearish in short - term, Bullish in medium - term [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - Container Shipping: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of Sino - US tariff policies may cause significant shocks and fluctuations to small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology stock weights, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices dominated by large - cap blue - chip stocks are expected to show stronger resilience [1] - Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1] - Sino - US trade uncertainties provide support for gold, while silver may experience short - term sideways adjustments [1] - Due to the escalation of global trade frictions and rising risk - aversion sentiment, base metals may face correction risks, but some metals have different fundamental factors [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical situation changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations affect product prices [1] - In the agricultural products sector, factors like supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions influence prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1] - Sino - US trade uncertainties provide support for gold, while silver may experience short - term sideways adjustments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Sino - US trade frictions and rising risk - aversion sentiment may cause the non - ferrous metals sector to face correction risks [1] - For different non - ferrous metals, factors such as inventory changes, production policies, and supply - demand relationships vary [1] Industrial Products - In the industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, factors such as production schedules, capacity changes, and market sentiment affect prices [1] - In the steel and iron sectors, factors such as production restrictions, seasonal demand, and inventory levels influence prices [1] - In the coke and coking coal sectors, the price trends are affected by factors such as market expectations and trading behavior [1] Agricultural Products - In the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil sectors, factors such as production reports, export policies, and international market trends affect prices [1] - In the cotton, sugar, and corn sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, new product listings, and policy expectations influence prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - In the crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt sectors, factors such as OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical situation changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations affect prices [1] - In the rubber, PTA, and ethylene glycol sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, production schedules, and market sentiment influence prices [1] - In the short - fiber, styrene, and urea sectors, factors such as production resumption, market transactions, and cost factors affect prices [1] - In the caustic soda and LPG sectors, factors such as production plans, inventory levels, and international market prices influence prices [1] Others - In the container shipping sector, factors such as price levels, market rhythms, and cost lines affect price trends [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has seen significant gains, with companies like Galaxy Magnetic, Beikong Technology, and Antai Technology reaching their daily limit up due to the tightening of export controls by the Chinese government and escalating trade tensions with the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The U.S. government is actively working to rebuild its rare earth industry chain, but China continues to dominate global supply due to its comprehensive production capabilities across the entire rare earth industry chain [1] - China's recent announcements regarding stricter export controls on rare earths, including coverage of semiconductors, may impose constraints on overseas chip manufacturing processes [1] - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff on rare earth exports from China, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] Group 2: Strategic Value and Market Impact - The recent upgrade in China's rare earth export controls expands the scope from upstream mining and separation to downstream metals, magnetic materials, and recycling, enhancing the strategic value of the sector [2] - This move is seen as a strong response to U.S. semiconductor export controls and may serve as leverage in upcoming APEC negotiations [2] - The tightening of export controls is expected to increase foreign governments' determination to establish rare earth processing lines, potentially raising the baseline prices for rare earths and leading to price increases domestically [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Bullish" or "Bearish" view for various commodities, with "Bullish" for corn, cotton, apple, zinc, silver, gold, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and "Bearish" for crude oil, treasury bonds (T), treasury bonds (TL), and stock index (IM) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade concerns have eased, with US stock futures opening higher, S&P 500 futures up 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.4%. Brent crude futures rose more than 1% at the start, and cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday, with Ethereum up more than 10% overnight. Copper in New York rose more than 2% at the start of Asian trading on Monday [1] - After a high-level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again and maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, affected by Sino - US trade, market volatility may increase. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storage asset is rising [3][22] - The resurgence of the Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward. However, there is still a possibility of trade friction mitigation, and low oil prices may cause OPEC to slow down production increases [4][5][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns 3.1.1 International News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24 at 8:30 am Eastern Time (20:30 Beijing time) [7] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on relevant rare - earth items, which is a proper measure to improve the export control system [8] 3.1.3 Industry News - In September, China's Small and Medium - Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.0, down 0.1 point from August but higher than the same period last year. Some sub - indexes showed a stable and positive development trend [9][10] 3.2 Outer - Market Daily Earnings - From October 9 to 10, major outer - market indexes such as the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures declined. The US dollar index also fell, while gold and silver prices rose. ICE Brent crude oil fell 4.81% [11] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, trade issues may increase market volatility. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Affected by US trade remarks, treasury bond yields have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are expected to remain strong until the end of October. The central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies in the fourth quarter [15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. Trade friction affects oil prices through supply - chain disruption and risk - asset selling. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward [4][5][16] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants has increased, and coastal methanol inventories are rising. Methanol is short - term bearish [17] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures rebounded slightly last week. Supply pressure may increase later, and the demand support is limited. The post - holiday trend of Shanghai rubber is expected to be oscillating and bullish [18] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Prices are affected by cost fluctuations and market sentiment is cautious [19][20] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed down. The market is waiting for autumn consumption to digest inventory and for policy changes [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks' gold - buying and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven asset support its price [3][22] - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded in the morning. The supply of concentrates has been tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting the copper price in the long term [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell due to the decline in the copper price. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign price [24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased, demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. The lithium salt price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption [25][26] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were weak on Friday night. The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. The short - term price may fluctuate sharply [27] - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, iron ore demand is supported, and global iron ore shipments have decreased. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term, with hot - rolled coil stronger than rebar [29] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly at night. The USDA report is expected to lower the US soybean yield, but the report is postponed. The domestic market is well - supplied, and the market is expected to oscillate [30] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, which may put short - term pressure on prices. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [31][32] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, and the domestic market is affected by new - season sugar production and import pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [33] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton market is affected by new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [34] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated downward. The off - season trading may have ended, and the near - term market will enter a game for the year - end peak season. The short - term peak - season expectation may weaken due to the trade war, and the far - term market is affected by the Red Sea resumption progress [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods has significantly impacted the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [2][3]. - The risk of a resurgence in the China - US tariff war and the potential increase in the supply - demand surplus in the oil market will keep the oil market in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and they may continue to rise as the US signals a willingness to negotiate [3]. - Most commodity markets are under pressure due to trade frictions, but some may have certain support levels or short - term rebounds based on their fundamentals [4][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices dropped significantly on Friday due to Trump's tariff threat, and although they rebounded slightly on Monday, the Brent price was still 2.4% lower than on Friday afternoon. The oil market will continue to be weak and volatile, mainly due to the risk of the China - US tariff war and potential supply - demand imbalances [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Trump's tariff threat and the progress in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation have led to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, putting downward pressure on the fuel oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken further [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. Cost side weakness puts pressure on asphalt, but the cracking spread has rebounded since late September [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+ future production increase and the decline in Saudi CP prices have led to a cautious market sentiment. LPG is under pressure in the short term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and they may continue their upward trend as the market liquidity risk decreases [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell on Friday due to trade tensions. Although large - scale mine supply losses have affected copper concentrate production growth expectations, the impact of new trade risks on macro - sentiment should still be evaluated [4]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff threat caused a significant drop in non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has a neutral inventory accumulation, and the Shanghai Aluminum price has support around 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The market is bearish due to the tariff threat. The London Zinc price is under pressure at the 3050 - dollar/ton level, and the Shanghai Zinc market has a supply - surplus situation [8]. - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is high, but the Shanghai Lead price has cost support. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel price rebounded and then fell back. The market is in a short - term oscillation, and it is not considered a bullish variety [10]. - **Tin**: The London Tin price may fall back to the pre - holiday trading range in the short term [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The implementation of export controls on lithium - related products may affect market risk preferences. With high inventory levels, there is a short - term callback risk [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is stable compared to before the holiday. The industry is facing high - level inventory accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 48,000 - yuan/ton support [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. Production enterprises have large inventories, and the supply is high. The domestic supply - demand pattern remains loose [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market may continue to be weak due to the drop in oil prices and a weak macro - atmosphere. However, the rumored sanctions on Iranian vessels may affect imports [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term risk of decline, and the extent of the decline depends on oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: The international financial market turmoil has increased the bearish sentiment in the styrene market. The price is under pressure due to cost and supply - demand factors [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The market is bearish, with increased inventory after the holiday and a downward - trending price center [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC market may be weak due to high supply and low demand. The caustic soda market has a high - pressure supply situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term downward risk. The supply - demand situation is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased domestic production and high port inventory. The supply - demand situation will weaken in the fourth quarter [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price may decline due to oil price drops and trade frictions. The bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US tariff threat has affected the US soybean market. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be supply shortages in the first quarter of next year if the trade relationship deteriorates [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The decline in oil prices has led to a drop in vegetable oil prices. The palm oil market in Malaysia has high inventory, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is affected by trade expectations. The rapeseed price is under short - term pressure, and the domestic rapeseed futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean may be affected by the overseas market in the short - term. Enterprises are starting to purchase new - season soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are more domestically - oriented. The new - grain listing has led to a decline in corn prices, but the state - owned grain reserve purchase may provide some support [41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The pig futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, but the market may improve in the second half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The egg price is under downward pressure due to high production capacity and off - season demand. The near - term contracts should be treated with a bearish view, while the contracts for the first half of next year can be considered for long - position allocation [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton demand is expected to be weak. The China - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in both domestic and international cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has sufficient supply. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good in the 25/26 season, and attention should be paid to weather conditions [45]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new - season apple production is expected to be stable, and the high inventory may put pressure on prices [46]. - **Timber**: The timber market's supply - demand situation has improved. The low - price spot provides an opportunity for long - position allocation [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is under pressure due to trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Short - term strategies can be adjusted according to market conditions, such as using far - month contracts for long - position allocation or near - month contracts for hedging [49]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 10 - month liquidity gap is controllable, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has increased, the US government shutdown is not over, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is high, which will continue to support the gold price. Silver generally maintains a strong trend, but there are risks of adjustment due to abnormal price - spread structure and potential suppression from Sino - US trade friction on its industrial attributes [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainty persists, US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. With the continuation of global central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, London gold spot decreased by 1.6% to $3965.30 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 1.7% to $49.82 per ounce. COMEX gold decreased by 1.7% to $3980.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 1.7% to $47.47 per ounce. The domestic AU2512 decreased by 1.4% to 901.56 yuan per gram, and AG2512 decreased by 0.8% to 11082 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on October 10, 2025, was - 3.46 yuan per gram (up 2.1% from the previous day), and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 62 yuan per kilogram (up 55.0%). The gold and silver price - spread and ratio data also showed corresponding changes [5]. 2. Position Data - **COMEX Positions**: As of September 23, 2025 (weekly data), on October 10 compared with October 9, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% [5]. - **ETF Positions**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37% to 1017.16 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05% to 15443.76026 tons [5]. 3. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 70728 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% to 1169061 kilograms [5]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 39940670 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% to 522463797 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On October 10, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.10, down 0.08% from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Indices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the US dollar index decreased by 0.59% to 98.82, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.22% to 3.52%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.17% to 4.05%. The VIX increased by 31.83% to 21.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.71% to 6552.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 5.33% to $58.24 per barrel [5]. 5. Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term sharp decline in precious metal prices was due to profit - taking by speculative funds after the cease - fire in the Middle East. Then, the escalation of Sino - US trade friction boosted the precious metal prices again. Gold is expected to be supported by multiple factors, and silver generally maintains a strong trend but faces adjustment risks [6]. - **Long - term**: The long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, with declines of 98.20, 102.80, 102.20, and 100.80. The trading volumes were 43832.00, 5422.00, 96227.00, and 16669.00, and the positions were 51030.00, 9132.00, 162971.00, and 55448.00, with position changes of - 3181.00, 1427.00, - 329.00, and 3589.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, with declines of 46.80, 48.60, 48.40, and 49.80. The trading volumes were 20378.00, 3053.00, 43708.00, and 6794.00, and the positions were 21085.00, 3090.00, 67688.00, and 13880.00, with position changes of 13.00, 793.00, 840.00, and 524.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, with declines of 149.40, 160.40, 166.80, and 171.60. The trading volumes were 39765.00, 10064.00, 99771.00, and 20790.00, and the positions were 50530.00, 18841.00, 140200.00, and 50503.00, with position changes of - 6184.00, 3029.00, - 3614.00, and - 1513.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, with declines of 104.60, 117.60, 127.40, and 128.80. The trading volumes were 53416.00, 15411.00, 140881.00, and 23742.00, and the positions were 70956.00, 22199.00, 183267.00, and 80505.00, with position changes of - 2937.00, 6180.00, 1106.00, and - 498.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.40, - 2.40, - 70.80, and - 92.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 0.80, - 62.40, and - 80.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4616.83, 2974.85, 7398.22, and 7533.82 respectively, with declines of 1.97%, 1.51%, 2.00%, and 1.49%. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.02, 67.28, 262.26, and 290.43, and total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7927.43, 2001.81, 5021.27, and 4857.04 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among industries, energy rose 0.88%, while raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecom business, and public utilities had changes of - 2.23%, - 3.07%, - 1.22%, - 0.12%, - 2.74%, 0.48%, - 5.58%, - 1.41%, and 0.18% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3897.03, 13355.42, 8293.71, and 3113.26 respectively, with declines of 0.94%, 2.70%, 2.86%, and 4.55% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26290.32, 48580.44, 6552.51, and 24241.46 respectively, with changes of - 1.73%, 1.77%, - 2.71%, and - 1.50% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban. The US plan to impose 100% tariffs on China seriously damages China's interests, and China firmly opposes it. China is not afraid of a tariff war. US Vice - President Vance signaled a potential easing of the trade situation, saying Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [2] - The National Conference on Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Industrial and Information Technology Sector was held, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial scientific and technological innovation system [2] 6. Industry Information - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 15, with record - high exhibition scale and pre - registered buyers. It signals a potential continued resilient growth of China's foreign trade [2] - Supervision on the illegal flow of individual business loans into the real - estate market has been strengthened, and the risks of such loans are emerging as they reach maturity and real - estate values decline [2] - The "report - price - alignment" policy will be implemented in the non - auto insurance sector. Major insurance companies have set up working groups to implement regulatory requirements [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 加剧短线波动 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 企稳 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：周五夜盘因美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称将对中国加征 100%关税，这导致商品和美 股普跌，金价震荡上行。中美贸易摩擦使市场避险情绪升温，利好贵金属，黄金或持续强于白银。而 短期的资产普跌可能出现流动性问题，即"拆东墙补西墙"，进而使金价短期承压，可参考今年 4 月 走势。预计贵金属或呈现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the soybean meal market is about to change, and it may stop falling and rebound in the short - term, with the domestic price stronger than the international price. The palm oil futures price faces volatility risks in the short - term [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, but soybean prices are near the cost line, oil mills are suffering continuous losses in crushing and have a stronger intention to support prices, and the negative basis of soybean meal is being repaired. Sino - US trade friction has escalated again, raising supply concerns. The suspension of the USDA report weakens the influence of US soybean futures on the domestic market [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [6][7] - **Core Logic**: After the unexpectedly bearish impact of the Malaysian palm oil report is released, the futures prices of palm oil at home and abroad have dropped rapidly. The weakening of international oil prices also casts a shadow over the demand for palm oil biodiesel. Unfavorable factors in the industrial chain, unstable trade relations, and weak international oil prices drag down the performance of palm oil futures prices [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]