Inflation Indicators - CPI shows a decline in pork prices while vegetable prices have generally increased, with a current rate of 1.46%[2] - PPI is influenced by rising crude oil prices, with a slight increase in black commodity prices, currently at 0.49%[4] Domestic Demand - Consumer travel radius is returning to normal, but passenger car sales have seen a year-on-year decline of 14.6%[3] - External demand shows a decrease in volume but an increase in price, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 1996.1, down 5.7%[3] Production Stability - October production remains stable, with a manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction[3] - The construction sector continues to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 2.14% in real estate infrastructure[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of ordinary government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 1549.06 billion issued, up 90.1%[4] - The central bank is expected to restart government bond trading, leading to a significant downward shift in the yield curve[4] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, shifting policy towards stabilizing growth, with the target range now at 3.75%-4.00%[4] - Major economies are experiencing policy divergence, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintaining their current stances[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "Fifteen Five" plan, which aims to navigate the challenges of globalization while promoting domestic economic growth and international engagement [2][3][4]. - The article highlights the need to understand the current macro external environment's volatility and the necessity to focus on internal stability and economic growth [2][8]. - It discusses the historical perspective on China's position in the world, emphasizing the importance of recognizing past achievements and future goals in the context of global changes [3][4]. Group 2 - The article points out that while the "Fifteen Five" plan focuses on quality, it also implicitly addresses quantity, particularly in terms of economic growth and labor productivity [5][6]. - It stresses the significance of enhancing domestic market stability to counteract international uncertainties, advocating for a unified domestic market to strengthen internal resilience [8]. - The article outlines China's advancements in key technological fields such as AI, quantum computing, and superconductivity, indicating a competitive edge over the U.S. in certain areas [10][11][12][13]. Group 3 - The "China + N" global strategy is discussed, highlighting the shift towards a multi-point global configuration in response to trade tensions, with an emphasis on the importance of China's market for international companies [15][16]. - The article notes that China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has surpassed foreign direct investment (FDI), marking a significant shift in the global investment landscape [17]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of the internationalization of the Renminbi, linking it to the strength of the country's financial and real economy [19].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20251031 Cotton Monthly Report: Pay Attention to the Opportunity of First Decline and Then Rise During the Pressure Transmission Period [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the increasing supply of cotton from the US and other countries in the Southern Hemisphere is putting pressure on the market. Although Brazil is accelerating its exports, the continuous implementation of India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The ICE market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of [63, 67] [3]. - Domestically, new cotton is expected to be harvested in about a week. After a slight increase in imports, the commercial inventory has recovered to the same level as the previous period, and the pressure on spot circulation is gradually increasing. The price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded recently, raising the average cost of new-season machine-picked lint cotton. On the demand side, the volume and price of downstream demand are still weakening, the enterprise load is seasonally weakening, and enterprises maintain just-in-time replenishment under the condition of few industrial orders. Pay attention to the sales speed and price during the pressure transmission process of inland warehouses to measure the profitability of inland buyers and the relief of the hedging density of all new cotton. During this period, the futures market may show a "first decline and then rise" trend. In terms of strategy, there is some support due to a slight increase in hedging pressure, but there is significant resistance to upward movement under the weak industrial driving force. Pay attention to the opportunity of high selling and low buying in the range of [13300, 13800] [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Factors - **International Macro**: The results of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced. The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% counter - tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrative export control rule and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level [3]. - **Domestic Macro**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply - **International Supply**: New cotton is being harvested. As of now, 530,000 tons of new cotton have been inspected. In November, precipitation in major cotton - growing areas in the US will decrease, which is conducive to harvesting. In India, the MSP is gradually being implemented in the northern and central cotton - growing areas, but due to heavy precipitation, the MSP - based procurement has started slowly, and the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the listing volume of new cotton in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [3]. - **Domestic Supply**: - The national new cotton picking is approaching the end, with a progress of 79.7%, and it is expected to reach about 90% next week. The delivery progress is 88.5%, 4.3% faster than the same period last year; the inspection volume of new cotton has reached 1.68 million tons; the sales progress is 10.5%, 5.8% faster than the same period last year. The average purchase price of national seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, rising from 6.16 yuan/kg in the middle of the month to 6.32 yuan/kg. The average price of new - season machine - picked lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the cost range of machine - picked lint cotton during the harvest period is 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [10]. - This week, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 408,200 tons to 1.8416 million tons, 76,600 tons lower than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang increased by 297,400 tons to 944,400 tons, 16,600 tons higher than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 27,500 tons to 170,200 tons, 58,200 tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of finished products, the inventory days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.23 days to 31.02 days, the inventory days of terminal grey cloth decreased by 1.07 days to 23.01 days, and the inventory days of polyester - cotton yarn in the factory decreased by 0.15 days to 27.81 days [12]. - In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn in China was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [16]. - There are few cotton warehouse receipts left in Xinjiang, and the effective forecast volume far exceeds that of the same period last year [17]. Inventory - The national cotton commercial inventory continues to rise, basically converging the previous year - on - year difference and approaching the same - period level. The inventory in Xinjiang has exceeded the same - period level, while the change in inland inventory is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the pressure of passive inventory replenishment in inland areas. The inventory of downstream finished products has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively neutral. Most of the Xinjiang warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the remaining warehouse receipts are concentrated in inland cotton - growing areas. The forecast volume of new - cotton warehouse receipts in Xinjiang exceeds that of the same period [3]. Demand - **International Demand**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow strongly in August, but consumer confidence declined slightly in September. In September, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports decreased seasonally but were still higher year - on - year. The consumer confidence index in the EU showed signs of stabilizing and recovering in September. In August, the growth rate of clothing import volume decreased significantly, and the import amount decreased, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in price [3]. - **Domestic Demand**: - This week, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills decreased slightly. Due to the recent increase in cotton prices and the difficulty of downstream yarn price support, the immediate profits of representative yarns have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative difference in the overall industry profit has been expanding this year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year profit has rebounded to - 18.5% [20]. - This week, the total cotton cloth sales volume in the Light Textile City increased slightly, and the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth sales volume increased from 386,000 meters to 390,000 meters, 74,000 meters higher than the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index decreased by 0.16 to 110.79, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 1.45 to 110.98 [22]. - In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period and below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [24]. - In September, the total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, further increasing from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - In September, the "rush - to - export" effect continued to decline, and the year - on - year performance further weakened. The export of textile and clothing continued to be under pressure, and the export unit prices of clothing and yarn showed a slight divergence, but the export situation was still serious both year - on - year and month - on - month [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Spiral Ore Industry Chain Monthly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Author: Wang Nan - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In November, the key agreement between China and the US is expected to continue to boost market sentiment, and the gradual formation of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China enhances the development confidence of the ferrous metal industry. However, after the macro - level benefits are realized, the market may return to the fundamental logic. The steel market still faces high - inventory pressure, and the resolution of the inventory contradiction may depend on production cuts. The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with prices first falling and then rising [83][86]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In October, steel prices continued to bottom out. At the end of the month, driven by positive macro - factors such as the expectation of Sino - US talks and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan, steel prices gradually increased. Spot prices were relatively stable, with limited demand improvement and high inventory pressure in the peak season, and the later rise was mainly driven by macro - factors and cost support. The basis declined [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. Initially, they were dragged down by weak steel demand, concerns about increased arrivals and declining hot - metal production. But in late October, with the improvement of macro - expectations, iron ore prices rebounded and showed a stronger trend. The basis returned to normal [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. However, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech put pressure on the market, and the probability of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67.8%. At the beginning of the month, the US federal government shutdown remained unresolved, and Sino - US trade frictions escalated, but then the two sides resumed negotiations, and the market risk appetite improved [10][11][12]. - **Domestic**: In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. In September, the manufacturing PMI declined, indicating a weakening of domestic demand. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system, strengthening scientific and technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which will have a profound impact on the demand structure of bulk commodities [20][29][30]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: In September, real estate investment and sales remained weak. Investment, new construction, and completion areas all declined year - on - year, and housing prices continued to fall. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and rebound in the future [37]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline. In September, the issuance of new special bonds decreased. The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of infrastructure [40]. - **Automobile**: In September, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high for the same period. New - energy vehicles were the main driving force for market growth. The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by eight departments provided support for the market [43]. - **Excavator**: In September, the production of excavators continued to grow. The domestic and foreign sales of construction machinery products increased year - on - year, benefiting from the equipment replacement cycle, policy support, and improved downstream demand [46]. - **Export**: In September, China's exports increased year - on - year, mainly due to the low - base effect and global demand resilience. However, with the increase in the base in October and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff policies, export growth may decline. Steel exports still have price advantages but face challenges from trade barriers [47][48]. **Supply - Side** - **Production**: In the first nine months of 2025, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In October, the blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates of steel mills declined, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Profit**: Recently, the prices of furnace materials have risen, and the profitability of steel mills has declined, but they have not reached the point of active production cuts [53]. - **Inventory**: In October, the steel market was in the peak season, but inventory did not decrease effectively. After the National Day holiday, the rapid resumption of production by steel mills and the slow release of terminal demand led to a rapid increase in the inventory of five major steel products. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory pressure needs to be alleviated [63]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar weakened, while that for hot - rolled coils still showed resilience [66]. - **Iron Ore Import and Shipment**: In September, China's iron - ore imports increased. In October, the global iron - ore shipment slowed down. The production and sales of the four major iron - ore mines in the third quarter were divergent, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [69][70]. - **Hot - Metal Production**: Since October, hot - metal production has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Due to the inventory accumulation of downstream steel products, there is an expectation of a further decline in hot - metal production, which may put pressure on iron - ore prices [75]. - **Inventory**: In October, port iron - ore inventory gradually accumulated, while steel - mill inventory decreased after a seasonal increase during the holiday [79]. 4. Future Outlook - **Steel**: In November, the steel market may return to the fundamental logic after the macro - level boost fades. The high - inventory problem needs to be solved, and the resolution may depend on production cuts. The demand for building materials is weak, and it is difficult to improve in the future [83]. - **Iron Ore**: In November, iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, first falling and then rising. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the downstream steel - product inventory problem may lead to a decline in hot - metal production, but the iron - ore price decline is limited, and prices may rise with the increase in winter - storage demand [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. Given that the economic data in October continued to weaken, which may boost the expectation of monetary easing and be beneficial to the bond market, investors are advised to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high in short - term trading [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1. Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures with maturities within 10 years fluctuated. T slightly rose, TF and TS slightly fell, while TL opened higher and closed significantly higher. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 35.51 billion yuan, with a net injection of 18.71 billion yuan [1] - A - share sentiment declined and continued to close lower, but it had little positive impact on the bond market. The official manufacturing PMI in October dropped significantly and was lower than expected, with new orders falling notably, indicating a contraction in demand and increased economic downward pressure, which pushed down long - term yields more significantly, while short - term interest rates declined to a limited extent [3] 3.2. Important Information - The official manufacturing PMI in October was 49, down from the previous value of 49.8. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, remaining in the expansion range and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level [2] - Pan Gongsheng stated that policies and tools to address macro - economic and financial market fluctuations are being studied and reserved, and the "involution - style" competition and fund idling in the financial industry are being continuously rectified [2] 3.3. Futures Contracts Data | Contract | Price on 2025 - 10 - 31 | Price on 2025 - 10 - 30 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 10 - 31 (lots) | Position on 2025 - 10 - 30 (lots) | Position Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.544 | 102.56 | - 0.016 | 84,178 | 84,235 | - 57 | | TF2512 | 106.065 | 106.075 | - 0.01 | 178,068 | 176,888 | 1,180 | | T2512 | 108.665 | 108.635 | 0.03 | 284,696 | 282,218 | 2,478 | | TL2512 | 116.64 | 116.19 | 0.45 | 182,844 | 183,707 | - 863 | [4] | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 31 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 30 | Basis Change | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 31 (lots) | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 30 (lots) | Trading Volume Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | - 0.0721 | - 0.0759 | 0.0038 | 30,841 | 33,991 | - 3,150 | | TF | - 0.0427 | - 0.0675 | 0.0248 | 51,145 | 54,366 | - 3,221 | | T | 0.1084 | - 0.0425 | 0.1509 | 66,178 | 68,993 | - 2,815 | | TL | 0.0476 | 0.0738 | - 0.0262 | 103,750 | 128,226 | - 24,476 | [6] 3.4. Other Market Data - The report also includes charts and data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of main Treasury bond futures contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - taking institution financing rates and policy rates, exchange financing rates, inter - bank certificate of deposit yields, fund stratification, US Treasury yield trends, and the US - China yield spread and RMB exchange rate [7][10][11][13][16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but there are expectations for gradual recovery in the future [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The October manufacturing PMI decline aligns with market expectations, primarily due to seasonal factors from overlapping holidays and increased uncertainty in international trade, leading to reduced production and investment expansion [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for October are at 49.7% and 48.8% respectively, indicating simultaneous slowdowns in both production and demand [2] - The new export orders index has decreased by 1.9 percentage points compared to September, remaining below the boom line for the first ten months of the year, reflecting the complexities in international trade [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with the recent release of the 15th Five-Year Plan proposal enhancing confidence in high-tech industries [3] - The central bank's current monetary policy is focused on utilizing existing structural policy tools, with an emphasis on sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The upcoming year is seen as a critical starting point for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant project construction and commencement expected, reinforcing the "investment in people" concept [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.39% to 65.09 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,600 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 902 lots to 577,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,545 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, Powell unexpectedly took a hawkish stance, reducing the probability of a 25BP rate cut in December, but it's still likely. After the China - U.S. summit in South Korea, there was some easing in tariffs. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated around 13,600 yuan per ton. The market sentiment was divided. Looking ahead, there are relatively optimistic expectations for the macro and fundamentals. The current supply peak will gradually ease, and the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose. Zhengzhou cotton has a bottom support, and the upward drive depends more on the macro level [1]. - For sugar, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the government of Uttar Pradesh will raise the sugar - cane price by up to 300 rupees per ton. The purchase price of early - maturing sugar - cane is set at 4,000 rupees per ton (equivalent to 321.24 yuan per ton), and that of ordinary varieties is 3,900 rupees per ton (equivalent to 313.21 yuan per ton). The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,660 - 5,750 yuan per ton, with only a few down 10 yuan per ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,590 - 5,640 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,790 - 5,950 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged. The Fed's rate cut was in line with market expectations and had limited impact. Raw sugar continued to hit new lows on Thursday, lacking buying and a bottom - finding drive. Domestic Yunnan sugar mills have started crushing, and Guangxi will start in mid - November. Benefiting from restricted imports of syrup, the price shows strong resistance to decline, but the rebound is weak under the high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference should be watched [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by Fed's interest - rate policy and China - U.S. tariff relations. Domestically, the futures price fluctuates around 13,600 yuan per ton. There are optimistic expectations for the future, and the supply pressure will ease. Zhengzhou cotton has bottom support, and the upward drive depends on the macro level [1]. - **Sugar**: The government of Uttar Pradesh raises the sugar - cane price. The spot price of sugar has little change. Raw sugar hits new lows, and the domestic sugar price shows resistance to decline but weak rebound under high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,243 yuan, up 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,658 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan, and the national average is 14,843 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan, unchanged; the main - contract basis is 278 yuan, up 22 yuan. The spot price in Nanning and Liuzhou is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,434, down 26 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,228. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,658 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,873 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,884 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,954 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, unchanged; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.8, down 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou was 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,541, down 84 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 586 [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse - receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][15]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Core Viewpoint - The "China Economic Outlook" seminar highlighted the resilience and potential of China's economy amidst external uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic policies and structural optimization for achieving annual targets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The National Development and Reform Commission's Macro Economic Research Institute reported that China's economy has shown strong resilience and steady progress in 2023, maintaining stable growth despite rising external uncertainties [1]. - The seminar discussed the macroeconomic situation, fiscal policy orientation, technological innovation, regional economic development, foreign trade, and future policy focus, with experts agreeing that the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session has provided a blueprint for high-quality economic development [2][6]. Group 2: New Analytical Platform - The "China Macroeconomic Monitoring, Forecasting, and Policy Evaluation Analysis Platform" was launched to provide dynamic monitoring, trend forecasting, and policy effect evaluation, combining effective market mechanisms with proactive government involvement [4]. - The platform integrates data collection, modeling algorithms, and visualization features, marking a significant step towards intelligent macroeconomic analysis [4]. Group 3: Future Economic Strategy - Experts emphasized the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international trade, advocating for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations and social confidence [6]. - There is a call to continue promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, optimizing regional economic layouts, and expanding high-level openness to solidify the recovery of the domestic economy [6].

中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权在致辞中表示，今年以来，我国经济运行顶住压力、稳中有进，体现出 强大韧性和潜力，在外部不确定性持续上升的背景下，我国经济总体保持平稳增长，结构优化持续推 进，科技创新加快赋能新质生产力发展，宏观政策协同效应不断显现，全年实现预期目标具备坚实基 础。 会议还发布了"中国宏观经济监测预测与政策评估分析平台"，旨在通过数据智能与模型分析，对宏观经 济运行态势进行动态监测、趋势预测与政策效果评估，为政府部门和研究机构提供决策参考和技术支 撑。 "中国经济怎么看"宏观经济形势秋季研讨会举办 中新网北京10月28日电 (记者 王梦瑶)10月28日，由中国宏观经济研究院与江西财经大学联合主办、民 进中央经济委员会协办的"中国经济怎么看"宏观经济形势秋季研讨会在北京举行，围绕我国前三季度经 济运行形势及下一阶段宏观政策方向展开研讨交流。 与会专家们一致认为，当前我国经济正处于结构调整和动能转换的关键阶段，要坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好发挥消费对畅通国民经济循环的作用。要积极实施更加有 力有效的宏观政策，稳定市场预期和社会信心，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的 ...