Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

稍早前，美国5月ADP就业人数增3.7万人，预期增11.0万人，前值增6.2万人。美国5月份的招聘速度达到2023年3月以来的最低水平。 在美国5月ADP就业数据发布后，美国总统特朗普表示，鲍威尔现在必须降息。他还表示"这令人难以置信，欧洲已经降息九次了"。 数据公布后，美元指数短线走低约20点，美股期货短线走低，纳指100期货涨幅收窄至0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率短线走低，现报4.454%。现货黄金短 线小幅走高，现报3348.86美元/盎司。 当地时间周三，欧股普遍上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.42%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.41%，法国CAC 40指数涨0.52%。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 部分经济学家担心，关税政策可能会在未来几个月导致美国就业市场明显疲软，但目前数据并未显示出这一点。 LBBW银行的首席经济学家Moritz Kraemer表示："我们目前还没有看到关税对劳动力市场、通胀等方面的明显冲击，这些影响可能会延 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 06 月 04 日 5 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： 生产端看，开工率涨跌互现：钢铁、玻璃及部分化工品开工改善，但水泥 仍疲弱；库存出现分化：钢材、矿石去库而水泥、玻璃累库；产能利用率 多数延续修复：焦化、电炉延续抬升趋势，水泥熟料小幅回落。开工率方 面，截至 5 月第四周，全国 247 家高炉开工率、主要钢企电炉开工率、螺 纹钢开工率延续 4 月上升趋势，分别为 83.89%、77.80%、42.64%，同 环比均正增；水泥磨机运转率处于低位水平，与建筑业新订单 PMI 处在荣 枯线以下互相印证（4 月录得 43.3）；浮法玻璃开工率出现修复，录得 75.99%；化工品开工率出现分化， PVC、PTA 开工率在 5 月下旬出现修 复，第四周分别为 78.49%、77.64%；纯碱开工率月内下降明显，或与企 业检修有关；石油沥青开工率月内先升后降， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that the U.S. beer market performed poorly over Memorial Day weekend, failing to meet expectations [1] - Approximately 55% of distributors believe that sales trends for this year's Memorial Day are weaker compared to last year, with about 13% stating that beer sales trends are significantly weaker [1] - The challenging macroeconomic environment is identified as the primary factor affecting beer sales, with reduced disposable income leading consumers to prioritize non-essential purchases [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Anheuser-Busch (BUD.US) showed the strongest sales trend during Memorial Day weekend, with 35% of distributors reporting an increase in sales compared to last year [1] - In contrast, Heineken (HEINY.US) performed poorly, with 66% of distributors indicating a decline in sales compared to the previous year [1] - Distributors expressed a cautious outlook for the summer sales season, with 56% expecting sales to be weaker than the same period last year [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Beer category sales are projected to further decelerate, with a decline of 1.9% expected this year and a 1.0% decline anticipated for 2024 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating on Constellation Brands (STZ.US) due to potential positive signals in monthly sales trends [2] - The firm also holds a "buy" rating on Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP.US), as Miller beer is gaining market share [3]

据财政部，2025年6月3日，上海合作组织成员国财长和央行行长会议以线上线下相结合的方式在北京举 行。会议主要讨论了宏观经济形势与政策、上合组织财金合作等议题。财政部部长蓝佛安和中国人民银 行行长潘功胜共同主持会议。 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日星期三 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 04 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：流动性跟踪周报（2025.5.26-6.1） 上周公开市场到期 9460 亿元，均为逆回购到期，公开市场投放 16026 亿 元，均为逆回购投放，合计净投放 6566 亿元。上周资金面整体均衡， DR007 均值为 1.7%，较前一周上行 10BP，R007 均值为 1.64%，较前一周 上行 5BP，DR001 和 R001 均值分别为 1.45%和 1.51%。交易所回购利率整 体上行，GC007 均值为 1.72%，较前一周上行 9BP。截至上周最后一个交易 日，逆回购未到期余额为 6566 亿元，较前一周下行。 风险提示：房地产政策超预期，地缘风险超预期。 研报发布日期：2025-06-03 研究员 张继强 SAC ...

Group 1 - The New York stock market showed mixed performance on June 3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 214.16 points to close at 42519.64, a gain of 0.51% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 34.43 points to 5970.37, reflecting a rise of 0.58%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 156.34 points to 19398.96, marking an increase of 0.81% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, eight out of eleven sectors gained, with the technology and energy sectors leading with increases of 1.48% and 1.11% respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that job openings in April 2025 reached 7.391 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.1 million and the revised figure of 7.2 million from March [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department announced that new orders for manufactured goods in April amounted to $594.6 billion, a month-over-month decline of 3.7%, which was worse than the market expectation of -3% [2] - The OECD downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year from 2.2% to 1.6% due to trade uncertainties and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities indicated that market expectations are optimistic regarding a potential phone call between U.S. and Chinese leaders, which could positively impact bilateral relations, with Nvidia identified as a key beneficiary [2] - Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, suggested that the S&P 500 index may fluctuate between 5700 and its historical high from February until clearer data on Q2 GDP and earnings is available [2] - Nvidia's stock price rose significantly by 2.8% to $141.22 per share, with other semiconductor stocks also showing notable gains [2]

经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 5 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 6 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 5 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 5 月主要经济数据预测： 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 结论：5 月国内经济增长动能保持稳健态势。预计 5 月国内 CPI 环比约为-0.4%，CPI 同比回落至-0.4%；5 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.3%，PPI 同比继续回落至-3.2%；预计 5 月工业增加值同比小幅回落至 5.5 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...