// 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.65% 附近，较上日变化不大。 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 5093 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 5093 亿元，中标量 5093 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2035 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 3058 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行加力，资金面整体变化不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，仍位于 1.37% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.3% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 6. 国债期货收盘 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 30 年期主力合约涨 0.1% 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02% 5 年期主力合约持平 // 全 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic data for May 2025 in China shows structural differentiation, with consumption outperforming expectations while investment and exports weaken, leading to a steady slowdown in industrial production [2][11] - The automotive industry remains resilient due to improved consumer spending, despite a decline in retail sales growth [4][6] Core Insights and Arguments Industrial Production - In May 2025, the industrial added value growth rate was 5.8%, a slight decline from the previous month, influenced by a slowdown in exports [3] - Labor-intensive manufacturing saw a decrease in growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% [3] - Traditional infrastructure and real estate-related sectors, such as black metals and non-metallic mineral products, experienced weakened production [3] Consumption Data - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding market expectations and marking a new high for the year [5] - Categories such as home appliances and communication equipment showed significant growth, reflecting the release of policy dividends [5] - The automotive retail growth rate was only 1.1%, indicating a price contraction despite a sales growth of 11.13% [6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline to 3.7%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all weakening [7] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 11.1%, significantly dragging down overall investment performance [7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed slight recovery on the supply side, but demand remained weak, with both sales area and sales revenue declining year-on-year [8] - The price index for second-hand residential properties continued to show negative growth, although the rate of decline has narrowed [8] Price Levels and Inflation Risks - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, indicating a widening gap between the two [9] - The PPI for production materials saw an expanded decline, raising concerns about deflation risks and the impact of price levels on corporate profitability [9] Other Important Insights - The financial data indicates that while social financing growth remains resilient, credit expansion has not significantly started [12] - Government fiscal data shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure growth, with a notable increase in the fiscal deficit scale, reaching a six-year high [14][15] - The government’s reliance on non-tax revenue has decreased, with non-tax revenue turning negative for the first time since 2024 [14] - The employment market showed marginal improvement, with the urban unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 5.0% [9] Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape in May 2025 reflects a complex interplay of strong consumer demand against a backdrop of weakening investment and export performance, with significant implications for future economic policy and investment strategies [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

银河有色 有色研发报告 地缘方面，当前伊以双方在美国的介入下实现停火，冲突带来的避险快速回落。美国宏 观方面，尽管昨日的 PMI 数据表现出韧性，但美联储官员鲍曼和古尔斯比均暗示可能 在 7 月降息，令美元和美债收益率快速下行，对贵金属实现较好的支撑作用。整体来 看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来一定的溢价出清的压力，但市场后续的焦点可能重 新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险并未消除，美 联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预 计贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 【交易策略】 1.单边：以逢低做多思路为主。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：观望。 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金盘中宽幅震荡，最终收涨 0.01%，收报 3367.95 美元/盎 | ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate is at 73.40%, down 0.54% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate increased to 83.84%, up 0.45% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 78.61%, down 4.39% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue is 28,100,000 CNY, a decrease of 9,000,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars are 60,333.45 units, down 593.05 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars are 75,186.70 units, down 371.50 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is 205.32 million square meters, an increase of 28.45% from the previous week[7] - The land transaction premium rate in 100 major cities is 7.09%, up 5.64% from the previous week[7] - The area of land sold in 100 major cities is 828.87 million square meters, down 428.98 million square meters from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai export container freight index is 1,869.59, down 218.65 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 CNY/kg, up 0.07 CNY from the previous week[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) shows overall weak food prices, while the producer price index (PPI) indicates a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices[40][42] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing is 1,023.73 million, an increase of 58.08% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is 12,848.43, up 432.71 from the previous week[8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly regarding interest rates and fiscal policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: The bond market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.8% [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy**: There is an expectation that monetary policy will not undergo significant easing, with limited room for interest rate cuts and a potential 50 basis points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][7]. 3. **Fiscal Stimulus**: A new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion is anticipated, with 100 billion allocated for private investment, which is expected to have a significant multiplier effect on GDP [5][6]. 4. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the year is around 5%, with expectations that investment will precede consumption in driving this growth [6][5]. 5. **Impact of External Tariffs**: The negative impact of external tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than previously anticipated, with a gradual improvement in data post-June [4][5]. 6. **Debt Supply**: The total supply of bonds is projected to be around 6.88 trillion, with a monthly net financing of approximately 1.15 trillion, which is stable compared to previous years [8][9]. 7. **Institutional Behavior**: Institutional behaviors are expected to influence the bond market significantly, with banks and insurance companies adjusting their strategies based on market conditions [10][12][17]. 8. **Credit Market Performance**: The credit market is expected to outperform interest rate products, with strategies suggested for public institutions to adopt diagonal strategies for credit yield [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending**: The government has approved 300 billion for consumer spending, with 160 billion already in progress, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [6]. - **Long-term Rate Predictions**: Long-term interest rates are expected to gradually decline, potentially reaching below 1.5% by the end of 2025 or 2026, although significant downward movement is limited [29]. - **Market Sensitivity**: There is an increasing sensitivity of the macroeconomic environment to changes in the debt financial cycle, which may affect future predictions and risk assessments [32]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and broader economic implications.

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250622: Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Warehouse receipts are flowing out, and the premium of copper spot is under pressure [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.03/ton week - on - week to - $44.78/ton, still negative [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 100,700 tons week - on - week to 712,100 tons [17] - The week - on - week change of the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [20] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in June is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [22] - Copper imports still remain in an inverted state [24] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased [25] - The LME copper inventory decreased again, while the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week but fell short of expectations. Terminal demand was weak, and the finished product inventory of refined copper rods increased [30] - From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year - on - year [33] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decline in June [34] - The "trade - in" national subsidy will continue, and 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing in May increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [40] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [42] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, expecting two interest rate cuts this year and hinting at an increased risk of stagflation [43]

"大浪淘沙"，在不确定中找寻确定性 2025 年 06 月 22 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预 测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局" 下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产 品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 2025 年三季度宏观经济与大类资产展望 1.2025 年 5 月财政数据点评：5 月财政：找 寻"抗风险"的答案-2025/06/21 2.经济动态跟踪："国补"继续下的消费后劲- 2025/06/19 3.美联储政策观察：6 月议息：谁能"逼"出 联储的降息？-2025/06/18 4.重新讨论变局下的资 ...

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 is expected to show increased volatility, leading to a general strengthening of bond fund net values, with over 90% of bond funds experiencing growth [1] - As of June 20, 2025, 6,575 bond funds have reported net value increases, with 6 funds achieving over 10% growth, highlighting significant investment opportunities in the bond market [1] - The top-performing fund, Huashang Fengli Enhanced Open A, recorded a net value increase of 13.75%, while other funds in the top ten also showed substantial growth, primarily in mixed bond and convertible bond categories [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in China remains positive, with expectations for continued economic growth throughout the year, supported by favorable policies in the real estate and stock markets [2] - Since June, bond fund performance has remained strong, with 141 products showing net value growth of over 1%, indicating robust market conditions [2] - The convertible bond market is currently in a relatively stable valuation range, with potential for breakthroughs if the technology sector performs well [2] Group 3 - The collaboration of domestic economic policies and increased counter-cyclical adjustments is anticipated to promote stable economic growth throughout the year [3] - The overall macro liquidity environment in 2025 is expected to enhance market risk appetite, with investment opportunities in domestic demand, technology, and dividend stocks [3] Group 4 - The bond market is expected to experience a trend-driven performance in the third quarter of 2025, indicating potential for significant market movements [4]