Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 2390.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1] Supply Side - According to Zhonghui Futures, the recovery of previously shut down facilities and increased operational loads of overseas methanol plants are raising supply-side pressure expectations [1] - Recently, facilities from Ningxia Baofeng and Hualu Hengsheng (600426) are under maintenance with no recovery yet, while next week, maintenance at Gansu Huating, Xinjiang Guanghui, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Shanxi Lubao methanol plants is expected to conclude [1] - Overall operational loads of overseas facilities remain high [1] Demand Side - According to Ruida Futures, the restart of the Zhongmei Mengda olefin plant last week has led to an increase in operational loads, while Zhejiang Xingxing's plant is still offline, slightly boosting the olefin industry's operational rates [1] - Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to resume operations this week, indicating potential for further increases in the olefin industry's operational capacity [1] Inventory - As of July 31, coastal methanol inventories stood at 915,000 tons, which is above the historical average, having increased by 45,000 tons (5.17%) compared to July 24, and down 2.76% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that the "anti-involution" trend is cooling, leading to a correction in industrial products [1] - The rising coal prices provide some support for methanol, but the restart of facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits are putting pressure on supply and demand [1] - The 2509 contract is approaching its delivery month, aligning closely with spot market logic, and prices are expected to remain weak and volatile [1]

铜周报 20250803 宏观向上； 供需有改善迹象 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 持货商销售情绪减轻、挺价出货，铜现货升水坚挺 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比略有缩窄 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比涨0.54美元/吨至-42.09美元/吨，仍为负 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 8 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周九港铜精矿库存环比减3.93万吨至52.16万吨 精废价差有所走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内7月电解铜产量环比增3.47%、同比增14.21% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 铜进口倒挂 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 13 电解 ...

Core Insights - Public REITs are characterized as a marathon, where compliance is essential for project qualification, aimed at mitigating asset risk and ensuring market confidence [1] - High-quality public REITs assets are expected to gain market recognition based on three dimensions: physical asset condition, supply-demand dynamics, and corporate governance [1][2] Group 1: Asset Selection Criteria - The physical state of assets includes factors such as engineering planning concepts, usage duration, construction quality, and the condition of facilities [1] - Assets that maintain scarcity during their lifespan are likely to exhibit strong premium capabilities and income expectations [1] - Effective corporate governance is crucial; even profitable projects may face long-term operational risks without a robust governance framework [1] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - The core value of public REITs lies in establishing a listing platform, with longevity dependent on continuous fundraising and acquisitions, creating a virtuous cycle of financing [2] - Strategic positioning involves three key aspects: strategic resources, strategic regions, and strategic enterprises, guided by national strategies that influence resource allocation and infrastructure demand [2] - Engaging in industries that align with national and public needs can provide a stable policy environment and access to industry growth dividends [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. With prices falling continuously, downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, and trading sentiment has improved. The short - term market is bearish, and the price may find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether the non - farm payroll data tonight affects the interest rate cut expectation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply - demand situation has tightened, which supports the downside. However, there is a possibility of giving back the gains if the production suspension news is falsified [8]. - Crude Oil: The recent crude oil price is in a strong oscillation. On August 3, the 8 voluntary OPEC+ production - cut countries will announce their September crude oil production policy, so it is recommended to operate cautiously and mainly wait and see [10]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. The cost support has strengthened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook, but the impact on the near - month is limited [11][12]. - PP: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. It is recommended to conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread. The industry has not seen actual policy implementation, and the market sentiment is weakening [13]. - Plastic: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The industry lacks actual policy support, and the macro - sentiment is weakening [14][15]. - PVC: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The demand has not improved substantially, and the macro - sentiment is cooling [16]. - Coking Coal: The downward space is limited under the expectation of supply tightening, but attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent production decline on demand [18]. - Urea: The market is still in a weak operation as the fundamentals lack obvious support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 1, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Lithium carbonate and red dates rose by more than 1%. Coking coal dropped by more than 7%, and industrial silicon dropped by more than 4%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on August 1, Shanghai copper 2509, coking coal 2601, and Shanghai gold 2510 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Individual Futures Analysis Copper - The US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods on August 1. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling. The copper tariff implementation may affect export demand. The short - term market is bearish [7]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed low, then rose in the afternoon and ended up. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The market expects a reduction in supply, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream demand is expected to increase [8]. Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on September production on August 3. The price is in a strong oscillation [10]. Asphalt - The supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. The cost support has strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate [11][12]. PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low - to - neutral level. The US tariff and propane import restrictions have an impact. The inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [13]. Plastic - The开工 rate has increased. The downstream开工 rate is at a low level. The inventory is high. The cost has increased. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. PVC - The开工 rate is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. The inventory is high. The demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to oscillate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The supply may be tightened, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The demand from downstream steel mills is strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of production decline [18]. Urea - The production is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has started to accumulate. The market is weak [19].

7月31日，焦炭期货震荡回落，截至发稿主力合约报1635.5元/吨，跌幅2.88%。 【消息面汇总】 据越南海关总署最新进出口商品数据显示，2025年6月份越南煤炭进口645.68万吨，环比下降10.38%， 同比增长1.44%。2025年1-6月，越南煤炭累计总进口3802.58万吨，同比增长13.26%。 上半年，陕煤运销集团累计销售煤炭1.42亿吨，同比增长2%，销售运行总体平稳、稳中有进，有力保 障了矿区产销平衡和下游用户需求。 7月30日下午，中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会，与会代表一致认为，当前焦炭市场 应尽快再次提涨价格。 机构观点 中州期货：总的来说，昨日中共中央政治局会议召开，表示依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业 产能治理。会议预期落地，并无超预期内容，盘面大幅回调，预计今日震荡运行。 建信期货：核查煤矿生产情况有利于稳定煤炭供应，有效治理煤炭行业低价无序竞争，对此煤炭市场供 需预期由6月份之前的供大于求，明显转为国内供应收缩，叠加5-6月份进口量降幅较大，洗煤厂库存明 显下滑，近期焦炭、焦煤期货价格大幅反弹并走高后明显回落，短期焦炭、焦煤期货价格或跟随钢材期 货，需关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products facing various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new capacity release, downstream demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases, inventory accumulates, and although downstream demand warms up, the supply - demand situation lacks substantial improvement. For polypropylene, upstream inventory transfers to the middle, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - After a sharp rise in night - time oil prices, the pure benzene price recovers. Its weekly supply and demand both decline, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3] - Styrene futures' main contract fluctuates narrowly. The cost support strengthens as oil prices rise, but the supply - demand situation remains weak with high supply and accumulated port inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon due to oil price support. PX fundamentals have limited drive, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with weakening processing margins and basis. Mid - term processing margins have a repair drive but depend on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and port inventory fluctuates at a low level. It faces supply changes due to device maintenance and restarts. Short - term oil price strength provides positive support [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw material fluctuations. Short fiber's processing margins decline, and its demand is in the off - season, but there is mid - term positive expectation. Bottle chip has stable inventory under low - start conditions, and over - capacity restricts its processing margin repair [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation is not high, and the port accumulates inventory seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand changes little. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [6] - Urea futures' main contract opens high and closes low. Local agricultural demand is ending, downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises accumulate inventory. The market is likely to operate within a range in the short term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve. Long - term prices are unlikely to rise significantly [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit improves, and device operation increases. Alumina demand provides support, but non - aluminum demand is average. Long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. Spot sales weaken, industry profit recovers slightly, and processing orders are weak. In the long - term, without supply reduction, glass prices are unlikely to rise significantly [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish with a sideways trend [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided [8] 2. Core Views - Steel: Market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are bullish with a sideways trend. Construction steel production and sales are stable, and inventory changes are minimal. Plate production has declined, and exports have significantly boosted plate consumption. A series of policies have been introduced to boost market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, prices have rebounded significantly due to macro - expectation boost. In the long term, the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The supply in July shows a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years. The demand and consumption of iron ore are resilient [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, and prices are moving sideways. For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery expectation is strong with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. For coke, after the price increase, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways as downstream daily consumption is rising with the increase in temperature. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3347 yuan/ton and 3503 yuan/ton respectively. Spot steel transactions are generally good, with speculative and futures - cash purchases being active. The national construction steel transaction volume is 12200 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Construction steel production and sales are stable, inventory changes are small, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs rise, construction steel prices increase. Plate production has declined, and exports have a significant pulling effect on plate consumption. A series of policies have boosted market sentiment [1]. - **Strategy**: Bullish with a sideways trend for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm is average, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore is 1.064 million tons, a 5.42% decrease from the previous day; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot is 1.63 million tons, a 36.97% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In July, iron ore shipments show a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years due to price increases. The current molten iron production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale steel mill overhauls in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The decline of coke futures has narrowed compared to coking coal. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal has returned to a high level, and the supply recovery expectation is strong. After the coke price increase, traders' enthusiasm has increased [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery needs to be tracked with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The demand for molten iron remains high, and short - term speculative demand has increased. For coke, after the fourth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors. The downstream steel fundamentals are better than the seasonal expectation, providing demand support [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, and coal prices are fluctuating. The price - holding sentiment has cooled down. At the port, downstream rigid - demand purchases at the end of the month have been completed. As the high - temperature range expands, daily consumption is increasing, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, leading to higher market quotes. For imported coal, coastal power plants are replenishing stocks, and the quoted price has increased slightly [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: In July, as the temperature rises, downstream daily consumption is increasing, and demand is strengthening. In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content, so this section is skipped. Core Views of the Report - The market volume increase drives full - scale rises in various sectors. Pay attention to the new statements of the end - of - month Politburo meeting which may become the short - term market direction. Suggest buying IF stock index futures on dips [3] - In the bond market, although the economic data in Q2 shows resilience and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, the current positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term fluctuations are affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6] - The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] - For various metals, the prices are affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Most metals are expected to show a trend of volatile and weak operation in the short - term [10][11][12] - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand in August, while some products like methanol and urea face supply - demand imbalances [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [55][56][57] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: Some self - media content about the photovoltaic industry is inconsistent with the facts; from January to June, the total operating income, total profit, and tax payable of state - owned enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the asset - liability ratio increased; the Kremlin's statement about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump in September and the diplomatic response; Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 outlook, causing its US stocks to fall sharply [2] - **Trading Logic**: The market volume increase leads to a full - scale rise in various sectors. Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, and it is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined [4] - **News**: By the end of H1, the scale of cash - management wealth management products decreased; the US housing price increase slowed down in May [4] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 shows resilience, but the positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this interest - rate meeting, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the US dollar index is strong, and the copper price rebounds with fluctuations. LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot premium changes [10] - **Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the upward space of copper price is limited due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [11] Aluminum - **Market**: The domestic black series stabilizes and rebounds, and the price of Shanghai aluminum declines with fluctuations. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changes, and the LME inventory increases [12] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic and overseas sentiment is positive, the price rebound is limited due to the off - season of downstream demand and weak export demand. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [12] Zinc - **Market**: The Shanghai zinc index rises slightly. The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the inventory is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish. In the short - term, pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the structural risks in the LME market. Be cautious about price fluctuations [13] Lead - **Market**: The Shanghai lead index declines slightly. The supply of lead ingots tightens marginally, and the price of lead batteries stabilizes [15][16] - **Outlook**: If the inspection of smelters expands, the price may strengthen. Be cautious about price fluctuations affected by capital sentiment [16] Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron is stable, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [17] - **Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment cools down, and the price of stainless steel falls. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [17] Tin - **Market**: The tin price is weakly volatile. The inventory of the domestic futures exchange and LME increases, and the price of tin concentrate declines [18] - **Outlook**: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery increases, but the short - term supply of smelting raw materials is still under pressure. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declines, and the futures contract price also falls [19] - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the passive reduction of the mine end. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of carbonate lithium can seize the entry opportunity according to their own situation [19][20] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rises, and the spot prices in different regions increase. The import window is closed, and the futures inventory is at a low level [21] - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [21] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of futures and society decreases [22] - **Outlook**: The steel mill's price - supporting policy is firm, but if terminal demand cannot keep up, the price may decline. Pay attention to macro - news and downstream demand [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The price of the AD2511 contract slightly declines, and the trading volume shrinks. The spot price is stable, and the inventory slightly increases [23] - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to face upward pressure [23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rise, and the spot prices change. The inventory of rebar decreases, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increases slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand [26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore futures contract rises, and the inventory of ports and steel mills increases slightly [27][28] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply pressure is not significant. The short - term price may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - situation [28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market**: The spot price in Shahe and Huazhong changes, and the inventory decreases [29] - **Outlook**: The short - term glass price is boosted by macro - policies, and it is expected to be volatile. In the long - term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side contraction [29] - **Soda Ash** - **Market**: The spot price is stable, and the inventory decreases. The price fluctuates widely [30] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rise. The spot prices also increase [31] - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations are large, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. In the long - term, the fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [32][33] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The price of the industrial - silicon futures contract rises. The spot prices of different grades decline [35] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. The long - term fundamentals are still in a situation of over - supply and insufficient demand [36] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU decline significantly and then fluctuate slightly. The开工 rates of domestic tire enterprises change, and the inventory of natural rubber decreases [39] - **Outlook**: The price is in a state of decline and fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the band - operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [41] Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures rise. The gasoline inventory in the port of Fujairah decreases, and the diesel inventory increases [42] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals are healthy, and the oil price has upward momentum, but it is limited by seasonal demand in August. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42] Methanol - **Market**: The price of the methanol futures contract rises, and the spot price also increases [43] - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Urea - **Market**: The price of the urea futures contract rises, and the spot price declines [44] - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [44] Styrene - **Market**: The spot price declines, and the futures price rises. The inventory of the port increases, and the demand from downstream industries rises [45] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side [45] PVC - **Market**: The price of the PVC futures contract rises, and the spot price declines. The inventory of the factory decreases, and the social inventory increases [47] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The price may decline after the sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The price of the EG09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory of the port decreases [48] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and the short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - **Market**: The price of the PTA09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory accumulates [49] - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to accumulate, and the processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [49] p - Xylene - **Market**: The price of the PX09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory is at a low level [50] - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The price of the PE futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise decreases, and the inventory of the trader increases [51][52] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side, and it is recommended to hold short positions [52] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The price of the PP futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise, trader, and port increases [53] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong in July under the influence of macro - expectations [53] Agricultural Products Pig - **Market**: The domestic pig price mainly declines, and the demand is weak. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction [55] - **Strategy**: Pay more attention to the opportunity of spread trading, and the long - term structure of the spread may change [55] Egg - **Market**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the high temperature reduces the egg - laying rate. The spot price rebounds, and the short - term near - month contract fluctuates [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the price rebounds for contracts after September [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans declines at night, and the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declines, and the trading volume is large [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to factors such as squeezing profit and supply pressure. Consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 09 contract [58] Oil - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price fluctuates, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in three major oils increase slightly. The export and production data of palm oil and other products change [59][60] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile. The palm oil price may be supported in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61] Sugar - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [62] - **Outlook**: If the external - market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline [62] Cotton - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures drops sharply, and the spot price slightly declines. The growth data of US cotton changes [63] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is bearish as the price breaks the upward trend line and the downstream consumption is weak [63]